Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Happy Week 7! 

If you’re reading this, I’m willing to bet your mindset is firmly sitting in one of two camps at the moment: “Wow, I can’t believe how much of the season is behind us,” or “Wow, there’s still so much season to be played.”

Our mindset is everything in DFS (and life). Since we can’t always control circumstances but we can always control our actions, we define our mindset every day. So right now, you’re likely looking forward to the 67%(!) of the NFL season yet to be played, or rehashing and reliving the six weeks already under our belts.

We discuss all the time in this space why the NFL is so entertaining, and how the never-ending news cycle leads to long weeks and seemingly short years. But as much as we all think we know right now about teams, players, coaches, we still have so much football left to be played. And in these upcoming weeks, we should feel as armed as any to conquer the slates ahead because we know that after roughly Week 5 (start of the “second” quarter of the season), many DFS players start to fade. So just by showing up, commencing your process, and sticking to it, variance is due to come your way.

What amazes me around this time in the NFL season is really what we all proudly proclaim we know. We should have significant samples right now, and there is always real signal in data, but like anything, any picture or narrative we can paint has some long-term truths and long-term falsities.

For instance, look at the AFC standings right now in terms of the “playoff picture.” If we were to ask our August selves, we’d say this week’s standings are drunk. The top four seeds in the AFC are the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Chargers. If the season ended today, the Bills, Broncos, and Jaguars would round out the other playoff teams in the AFC. Wait, what? Our August logic and predictions would have read some combination of the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs in the top three, with likely the Texans fourth, with a mix of the other three AFC playoff teams among the rest. Even though they are surging, neither the Chiefs nor the 1-5 Ravens nor the Texans would be in the picture. So ask yourself, what is true about this and what is false? How will that affect this week’s games?

There is some normalcy and regression likely due to play out. It’s also a pointless exercise to analyze standings in Week 7. However, as we look for inspiration in our short-term predictions, we should always be considering the easier-to-predict long-term outlooks. We know the Chiefs will likely finish between eight and 11 wins. We know the Ravens will probably make a run when Lamar returns. We know the Colts are one or two games better than their record should be, and the same could be said for some others. What we don’t know is what will happen in this week’s games, but similar to how the Chiefs showed up last Sunday night, the Eagles have faded after starting the season 4-0, and other teams like the Lions and Chargers are playing to their capabilities despite injuries, the longer-term story sometimes plays a role in how the short-term is determined.

What’s the lesson here? With the NBA and NHL upon us in October, we should feel as prepared as ever for Week 7 A) due to distracted and fatigued DFS competition, and B) because we should see the regression due to some of these teams who have underperformed or overperformed this season.

OWS NBA Props is BACK 

How’s that for a segue? Who are we kidding, we’re all multi-sport athletes. 

And in that spirit, the NBA season kicks off in just five days (Tues., Oct. 21st) and now is the time to jump in on the NBA props package. 

The OWS team has ripped off three straight profitable seasons of +EV betting, with a total return of +162U (including the 2024/25 NBA playoffs)!

2022/23 Season: +55U, +4% ROI

2023/24 Season: +82U, +10% ROI

2024/25 Season: +15U, +2% ROI

2024/25 NBA Playoffs: +12U, 16%

This week we have special pricing to get in on the action. 

NBA Props Package: $29/week or $79/month

NBA Bink Machine: $20/month

Both of these investments could pay off in less than a few days of tailing the expected 30-50 bets from Monday to Friday every week of the NBA season.

Week 7 :: Challenge Everything You Know

We’ve had a lot of so-called “chalk” playing out really well the last few weeks. It’s been both profitable for some of us, and downright bankroll-wrecking for others. Whatever your results, there is so much to do in prepping here for Week 7.

The first route I am going is to challenge everything. On this Sunday’s slate, we have 10 games. With six weeks behind us, we will have herd groups forming everywhere we look. For instance, the high-total games will garner heavy cumulative ownership. The high-total teams will as well, as we will all be more confident in these teams “attaining” this 50% likely outcome. I’m looking at you Commanders // Cowboys and Chiefs, with your strong projections. Similarly, the bottom-barrel teams like the Saints, Raiders, Giants, Dolphins, and Jets will be less expected this week (and each week later into the season) to provide a perky performance (see Giants, Week 6) which can leave us in shock and awe.

It’s a great slate we have coming up. Let’s challenge our knowledge and see what angles can be had…

Commanders (28.25) // Cowboys (26.25) is up to 54.5 total as of this writing, one of the highest O/U we’ve seen all season. Washington’s offense rounded into form (not health) last week while Dallas’ offense has been in top form all season. We think we’ll get both CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin back to add to the weapons here and Jayden Daniels finally looked healthier in Week 6. All signs are pointing to a shootout. The unlikelier outcome? A blowout win in either direction here. Dallas could look stale bringing CeeDee back into the fold, or its defense could reach new lows against the Commanders.

Colts (23) // Chargers (25) at first glance seems like a decently obvious game where we know where the volume will flow. Jonathan Taylor and Ladd McConkey bubble up (JT with 20+ opportunities in every game this season, Ladd with his highest target count sans-QJ last week), but there’s also plenty of talent everywhere else and two defenses that can be exposed at times. Did Kimani Vidal just snag the Chargers’ RB1 for the foreseeable future, or is the Dolphins rush defense just that bad? Tyler Warren keeps on chugging. What will Oronde Gadsden do for an encore? This game being the highest-scoring game of the week doesn’t seem likely, but its 48-point total would have put it here any other week of the season. 

Eagles (23) // Vikings (21) is the only other game environment where both teams project for at least 21 points, but the odds here of this game taking off are low. However, does Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense force the Eagles to break into a more pass-heavy game plan? And with the pressure on Hurts, how many open-field opportunities could it open up? It seems like another week of Carson Wentz, and we are just one week removed from Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo dominating this injured Eagles defense. If Jalen Carter returns, maybe Minnesota struggles to run the ball as well as the Giants did, and in turn what does that look like for the prospects of Wentz, Justin Jefferson, or Jordan Addison? Another game where the upside seems limited; but played indoors, what if it explodes?

Kansas City also has a 28+ point total along with Washington, and gets Rashee Rice back this week. Mahomes will be popular, even if the Raiders have given them fits in recent years. This Chiefs offense has looked better though, and with Rice back there could be a different dynamic in play. The public will (and already is) heavily swaying toward another strong Kansas City performance. Will the public always be right?

Chicago, off a dramatic road win out of their bye, is hosting New Orleans, and is favored by nearly a touchdown. We aren’t sure about DJ Moore’s health this week and they are on a short week, but with the Saints loss against the Patriots and the Bears win, expecting anything different this week seems illogical. It’s not always a pendulum swinging back and forth, but every team has ups and downs during a season, and it will be interesting to see how the Bears respond on a short week after an emotional win in a game they are expected to lead and win start to finish.

Green Bay (at Arizona), Denver (vs. Giants), and New England (at Tennessee) are all significant favorites this week as well // The Packers have plenty of paths to win and should care a little bit about not being viewed as the prohibitive NFC favorite anymore (Eagles, Lions, Rams). A statement win upcoming and a Jordan Love MVP discussion next week? // Denver saw what the Giants did to surprise Philadelphia last week, but that came on a short week, and surely that was the Broncos’ fear to round them into shape to prepare for this one. Almost as scary as their near-loss in London to the Jets…at least in my opinion, Denver’s preparation for this game shouldn’t be doubted // Mike Vrabel returns to Tennessee, where his successor was just fired. The new-coach bounce is always a tough dynamic to get behind, but can’t be ruled out here, either, with interim HC Mike McCoy.

We didn’t mention the Panthers // Jets and Dolphins // Browns matchups, but those should have plenty of fantasy relevance by featuring a few porous defenses. But both matchups look unlikely to be “had to have its,” despite some strong individual matchups for players in both games.

The “set up” of this slate looks very basic and straightforward. Challenge those assumptions this week. The expected performances likely won’t all play out that way. The unexpected can come from anywhere.

And with that, we’ll see you on the site in the coming days.

Get in on the NBA Props package!

And build those winning NFL rosters to take down tournaments this Sunday!

See you then!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, OCT. 14 FIRST-LOOK THOUGHTS ::

early qb reflections ::

@everyone — I’ve been getting thoughts out on Monday night the last couple weeks, but I had some fatigue on Sunday night when I opened the slate and saw another Cowboys slate. Now playing Washington with a 54.5 point total — something we never see on the Main Slate anymore.

I’ll be starting my deeper dives into things late tonight, but some early QB thoughts before I board my return flight in Oakland:

Caleb continues to struggle with ball placement, but everything else on this Bears offense looks good, and while the Saints aren’t bad, Caleb should be able to do well here if he does his part. One major dent to his upside is the possibility of Dennis Allen (who obviously knows Rattler well) figuring out how to trip Rattler up on the road. The Saints’ offense (as we’ve talked about all year) is impressively competent, but if they get tripped up early on the road, we might lose the need for a big game from Caleb. Realistically, all QBs on this slate should
be compared to Dak and an underpriced Jayden first and foremost, and Caleb is an underdog to matter on this slate in that context.

Pat Mahomes has 26+ DK points in 4 of 6. All of those were competitive games, which is unlikely to be the case with broken Geno taking on the Chiefs’ D. He can at least be considered, though.

Fields looks awful, and the Panthers are unlikely to pull away to such an extent that we get late-game chaotic Fields, but that possibility can’t be dismissed. Opportunity for ceiling is dented a bit by the fact that the Jets defense is starting to play much better, which could trip up this whole game environment.

The Pats could bury the Titans, but what’s the ceiling on Maye if this game is uncompetitive?

Herbert and Daniel Jones are dark horses for notable production.

And then we have Jayden at only $6.9k against Dallas, and Dak on the other side being asked to respond.

Okay, so not much.

Could be a strange week — but as we know, answers will start to come as we get deeper in.

Pricing looks really tight this week, which gives us an edge as sharp DFS players.

I’ll be back late tonight with more observations and (presumably) insights.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 15 THOUGHTS ::

SLATE-OPENING REFLECTIONS ::

You won’t ever catch me complaining about my “work” (what’s better than this!?); and this year in particular — for the first time since I started writing DFS content more than a decade ago — I’ve been looking at the NFL season saying, “I’m going to miss this when it’s over” (instead of looking forward and saying, “Okay, yeah, it’s a grind, but only X number of weeks remaining”). There’s a trick being played on my mind this year with the Journal, to where I feel like I really only have one day of content each week (even though I’m probably writing more words in here than I was writing in DFS Interpretations the last few years; something about being able to just explore the slate and share my thoughts as they develop has been really enjoyable — and really beneficial to my understanding of the slate — and has made it feel like I’m really just “playing DFS and jotting down my thoughts along the way”).

With all that said, however, the first ~seven weeks of the season each year are an absolute sprint. While we have a tremendous team at OWS, and I have far fewer “work” responsibilities than I had in the early years of the site, the early part of the NFL season is pretty much wall-to-wall weeks, with all of my non-NFL time filled with either family or “work.” As the wave of early-season NFL work crashes, another wave builds up behind it with NBA tip-off approaching. This year (same as every year), we’re rolling out NBA Props; and we’re also bringing back the NBA Bink Machine (actually, pretty cool: we worked out a deal with FTN where we can offer the NBA Bink Machine for only $20/month(!) — so that’s projections, ownership projections, and an optimizer for less than a dollar per slate; IF you play NBA DFS, it’s a nice way to have important tools in-hand without breaking the bank). All of this requires communication, organization, and hands-on work on my end that makes a week like this feel like the final sprint in a series of sprints.

Why am I sharing all this in here? Because I just wrapped up my NBA work today…

…and every year, the conclusion of my “NBA launch” work essentially marks the end of my “work” season, and the start of my “just playing DFS and creating content the rest of the year” season. As I also mentioned above, my content creation doesn’t even remotely feel like work/responsibility at this point…which means I’m basically just a DFS player from this point forward. (Let’s go!)

Between the “Cowboys fatigue” I was dealing with at the start of the week and the NBA work on my plate the last couple days, this week could have potential to feel “squeezed pretty tight”…

…but the truth is, this is one of the most straightforward weeks I can remember.

Have you looked at game environments this week? The Commanders and Cowboys have a massive 54.5-point total (if we throw out Week 1, where weird things happen, every Cowboys game on the season has gone over this number), and the list of “game environments that could challenge this one” is thin and not all that inspiring. (To be clear: this doesn’t mean we’re just playing that game and moving on; but like a “Coors Field slate” in MLB DFS, that game does comprehensively dictate how we want to view/attack the slate as a whole.)

Have you looked at running back this week? Quinshon Judkins is an absolute focal point for the Browns’ offense, and he is taking on one of the worst run defenses we have seen in years. There are other solid backs, but contrary to what projections and even content providers are likely to say, there’s a gap between this first play and the others, and the running back options on this week are less inspiring than we’ve had in recent weeks. If you’re looking for one-offs at wide receiver, almost nothing stands out as high-confidence. (I’ll get to the exceptions later, of course.)

Tight end is honestly full of solid options.

And if you look at DST, it’s tough to make a clear case for any options under $3400, and the options at/above that mark mostly look attractive.

What you can expect from me tonight :: I have the kids for the next two and a half hours, and my original plan was to wrap my “work” during this time and then start dropping thoughts into the Journal around 7 PM Pacific. With my work finished early and the kids relaxing // watching a show, however, I’m going to start dropping in thoughts early. I don’t know how fluid the flow of these thoughts will be, as I may get interrupted by young’uns who need help. But I think I have a pretty good (early) feel for this slate, so I’ll start exploring my thoughts here as I can, and by the time you wake up on Thursday morning, I expect I’ll have a pretty comprehensive breakdown in here of how I’m seeing the slate, and of some of the angles I’m working with on my end in the early going this week.

WEEK 6 BETTING REVIEW ::

Before we get deeper into DFS, a quick note on betting:

I’m sitting on +3.77 units on the year after a slightly down Week 6.

The Jets showed notable improvement on the defensive side of the ball in Week 6, and the Broncos’ big-play-hunting came up empty, so I not only lost a full unit on Broncos -6.5, but I also lost 0.25 units on a Broncos alt line ladder. I mentioned last week that if I could have gone back and done things again, I would not have taken Cowboys -3.5 at Carolina, which was another one I lost. And then after the Falcons and Bills scored 28 combined points in just over a quarter of play, there were only 10 points scored the rest of the way (with a bunch of failed fourth downs and other edge-of-the-knife moments — missed field goal // Drake London out at the half-yard-line on the last play of the half, etc. — sinking the flow I needed for the Over there). When those points piled up so quickly, the in-game Over/Under moved as high as 61.5, and I nearly pulled the trigger on a full unit to the Under there, but I didn’t, and I ate the full loss instead of offsetting things with a move that looked pretty obvious in retrospect.

On the winning side, I got the Patriots money line over the Saints (-205), the Bengals at +14.5 vs the Packers, and the Seahawks +1.5 at the Jags (though apparently I only bet a half-unit there, which I hadn’t remembered heading into Sunday; oops).

I have eight bets open for Week 7, but most of them were placed early (several of them were shared in here last week), and due to the line movement we’ve gotten, there isn’t much opportunity to tail me on these if you waited to grab them. To run through them, though:

Last week I took the Seahawks -2.5 at home vs the Texans (calling it one of my favorite bets). That line is now -3, which is a very different bet.

As mentioned last week, I also upped my exposure to this bet by adding one unit of a “Patriots to win and Seahawks to cover” parlay.

We took the Panthers at +2.5 vs the Jets last week, saying they were the better team and were installed as underdogs, making it a fairly easy/straightforward bet. After Week 6, the Panthers shifted to -1.5 favorites, so we got really nice value there.

As mentioned last week, I put down four units on Patriots -6 at the Titans, which has since moved to -7. Again: nice value.

The Cardinals have played the 49ers, Seahawks, and Colts to losses of 4 or fewer points, and are a highly competitive team in spite of their record (and in spite of their pathetic collapse vs the Titans). I took them last week at +7 at home vs the Packers, which has since moved to +6.5. (Same as the Patriots // Titans line: 7 is an important threshold, so this was nice value as well.)

Before the Falcons’ game vs the Bills — but after the Fred Warner injury on the 49ers — I took the Falcons at +3.5 at the 49ers. That one has since moved to +2.5, which is massive. (Like the number seven, the number three is a big threshold.) The Falcons are on the road, but they are the better team, and the 49ers are missing two DPOY candidates, which is obviously significant.

I put down two units on the Over in the Cowboys // Commanders game. 54.5 is an enormous number, but the Cowboys’ offensive excellence and defensive issues have been a perfect storm so far.

Finally, I put down a unit on the Colts at +1.5 on the road against the Chargers. I was back and forth on this one (as I trust Harbaugh to find a pathway to a win), but with the state of the Chargers’ offensive line and backfield, the Colts are just a better team, and home field for the Chargers is not what it is for other teams. This one feels closer to that 55/45 line we should be looking for than some of the other bets listed above, but I still like it as +EV.

I’ll keep tracking these in here as we move forward — and if I find any early bets for next week, I’ll drop those in here as well.

BROWNS WEEK 7 DFS OBSERVATIONS ::

Breece Hall Observations ::

It currently looks like Breece Hall is on track to be one of the higher-owned plays on the slate, as he’s popping in optos/projections. I don’t think he’ll be in my player pool, as projections are definitely underestimating the Carolina run defense (see what they did to Achane and Javonte), and we have a Jets offense that is one of the worst in the NFL, and is expected to be without their top pass-catcher in Garrett Wilson. To be clear: Hall is a home-run hitter, and it won’t be surprising if he pops for a home run and buries rosters that didn’t play him. I also don’t think he’s a “bad play,” if you’ve been gravitating toward this one on your end. But I do think there would be edge, over a large sample size, to fading him at high ownership in this spot. I’m off him because the play doesn’t stand out to me (rather than being off him for strategic reasons), but the strategic angle works as well.

FRIDAY, OCT. 17 THOUGHTS ::

DILLON GABRIEL // QUINSHON JUDKINS STACKING PARTNER ANGLE ::

Picture this. the browns are playing an awful miami defense. dillon gabriel throws for 225 yards, and quinshon judkins rushes for 110. not a stretch, right? the browns score three team touchdowns (also not a stretch), and gabriel/judkins are represented in all three (it’s unlikely things would shake out a different way). add 3ish points through the air for judkins (4 // 1.1 // 7.3 // 2.8 // 0 so far), and this is about 40 DK points. these two cost $10.4k combined.

been building some “triple pay-up” rosters with this one. i remain a fan of it.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON JUDKINS’ UPSIDE ::

Judkins’ rushing yardage prop is 95.5. that’s absurd. to put that in context, breece hall (expected to be popular) is 67.5. offensive player of the year front runner jonathan taylor is 88.5. saquon is 73.5. a rushing prop of 95.5 is outrageous. just saying…

To be clear (obviously), i’ve lost weeks on lock-button plays before. but i’ve also won weeks on them. this isn’t fields the first time he popped, or josh allen in that monster game vs the eagles a couple years ago, or some other plays i’ve felt this way about in the past. but in the context of what this slate provides, judkins really stands out to me. i think he’s just clearly a very sharp on-paper play (especially as projections don’t quite have him in the top 3/4 options in terms of expectations against salary spent), and i’m simplifying my own week by just including him on everything i build.

The game total has been dropping with weather concerns, creating a small dent in projections for judkins (as projections rely on game totals and implied team totals as a key data point). as we can see with his rushing prop, however, the concern shouldn’t really stretch to him, and the dent in projections should serve to slightly lower his ownership. it’s a nice setup all the way around.

DIFFERENT ANGLES ON ROSTERING JAYDEN DANIELS ::

What happens if we’re missing both Deebo and McLaurin?

My quick thoughts:

Jayden topped 25.2 DK points six times last year. In three of those games, he had pass attempt totals of 23 // 24 // 30. I would imagine the Commanders would try to land more in the 24-32 range here, with Jayden running eight to 10 times and Bill taking 16 to 20 carries of his own to round out the team’s plays. If we were to get 30 targeted attempts, we might expect something like:

10 attempts to tight ends
4 attempts to running backs
16 attempts to wide receivers, spread amongst Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore, and Jaylin Lane.

We’d almost certainly see more 12-personnel, as well.

I think it would be likely that we would see a strong wide receiver score emerge from this team (especially price-considered), but it might be tough to know where that score will come from.

Maybe the angle is to play Jayden with two cheap wideouts?

Maybe it’s to play him with Ertz and guess on a wideout?

Maybe it’s just to pair him with Ertz, who I think has a good shot at something like 6-60-1 here even if one of the wideouts plays.

Just some preliminary thoughts. No need to spend more brainpower than this, as I’m getting ready for today’s pods, and we’ll have more clarity here soon enough anyway; but I wanted to pass along those pre-depth thoughts.

PLAYER GRID ANNOUNCEMENT ::

Player Grid is live! – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-7-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-7-25

SATURDAY, OCT. 18 THOUGHTS ::

DAK // CEEDEE // PICKENS STACK ANGLE ::

Just thinking some more about this dak + ceedee + pickens idea.

you need something like 14-210-3 between the two wideouts for it to make sense.

that’s obviously not the likeliest scenario, but it does have a reasonable enough probability of happening that the play makes sense given how low-owned it is likely to be.

dak throws for 330-4, and we have a really good shot at getting there; and suddenly this is the stack you had to have on the week.

i’ll keep this in mind as one of my potential core builds.

SIMS RESULTS FOR DAK // CEEDEE // PICKENS STACK ::

@everyone — I just imported my hand-builds and ran the sims on them, and my dak // ceedee // pickens rosters were my highest-roi dak rosters, and were among my highest-roi rosters on the week (top 1%, in spite of the fact that the sims have generally not loved dak builds this week — biasing the projections/math in favor of the running qb in that game).

that’s not gospel, of course, but it’s a data point in favor of the viability of this approach. we’re betting on something that probably happens 3% of the time in this spot; but if it happen, you’re pretty quickly positioned to be in the top 1% (probably more like top .5% or better) of tourneys.

mid-week sims have my favorite roster of the bunch finishing in the top 1% of large-field tourneys 3.8% of the time; and more importantly, they have this roster finishing in the top 0.1% of large-field tourneys 0.62% of the time.

when i run the sims on this for small-field single-entry, this favorite roster of mine pops as the number 3 roi roster out of more than 3,000 total rosters on the week — and one of the two rosters above it is another dak // ceedee // pickens build that the bink machine gave me earlier in the week

again: not gospel; but still worthwhile data points

the math is really good here

RASHEE RICE THOUGHTS ::

Rashee Rice started his career with 10 games in which he did not top seven targets. Then came an 8-107-1 game, on 10 targets. From that point until now, Rice has played 13 games (playoffs included), and he has seen 9+ targets in nine of those games (while seeing six or more in 12/13). Over this stretch, he has averaged 19.3 DK points per game. He has finished below 14.4 only three times in 13 games, and he has scored 18.5 or more in 8/13. The price tag on Rice really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense here. We know that already, of course; but just adding some numbers for emphasis.

None of this guarantees that he’ll hit this week. But he’s good chalk, for sure.

SUNDAY, OCT. 19 THOUGHTS/UPDATES ::

PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Sunday morning update :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-7-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-7-25

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

From a top-down view, this is a 10-game slate with one game carrying the highest game total of the season, only one other game with a game total north of 47.0, two spots where wind could become a factor, and four games with one team favored by a touchdown or more. But, when we start digging deeper into expected field behavior, we find a clear path of expected salary allocation that doesn’t take a ton to move away from. There are two spots where I think the field has it right regarding the chalk and then some spots where I think they are getting it completely wrong. We’ll go over how I’m seeing this slate from a theoretical framework below, and where I see the best places to deviate. This is a really fun slate, and I challenge you to think for yourself on this one, because that appears to be the likeliest path to success. Let’s dive in, shall we?

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

RASHEE RICE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Rice gets the “soft pricing in his first game of the season” treatment on DraftKings this week, which makes him the most underpriced option on the slate relative to his salary versus range of outcomes. That does not mean he is guaranteed to return an elite GPP score, but he would be one of, if not the, most +EV bet to make if we played out this slate 100 times.

QUINSHON JUDKINS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I was on Judkins early in the week, even building him into my DFS Labs roster on Tuesday. At that time, I projected Judkins to carry some of the highest ownership on the slate. Then I saw JM raving about him later in the week. Then I saw his ownership in manageable territory. Then I saw everyone else talking about him. Then his ownership jumped to one of the largest on the slate. In situations like this, I side with simply playing the best on-paper plays, just as I intend to do with Rice. There are so many ways to differentiate on this slate that I honestly expect to be massively overweight Judkins this week.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’m not so sure about this one. The Commanders have been an extremely stout run defense until they got gashed by D’Andre Swift, of all people, on Monday night in Week 5. Williams has a low 4.3% explosive run rate but a low 37.0% stuff rate, meaning he is consistently churning out positive yardage while rarely getting into the second level. That makes him a pretty poor bet to hit the 100-yard bonus, meaning he likely requires multiple scores and an elite receiving role to return a solid GPP score at his salary. He has seen three or fewer targets in half of his games this season (eight, seven, and five in the other three), and has one game all year of a 4x multiplier on his Week 7 salary. I’ve got a nifty pivot that I’ll highlight below if you’re targeting this sub-7k range at running back.

CEEDEE LAMB

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This one makes more sense. Lamb has consistently produced when both he and Dak Prescott are on the field, and he now gets an opponent that is a true pass funnel and slot funnel, with a salary that has fallen to $7,500 after missing the past three games. It’s always scary playing a wide receiver fresh off a high-ankle sprain, but I’m willing to take that gamble given the pedigree and matchup.

BREECE HALL

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I think I summed this one up succinctly enough in the DFS+ Interpretation of this game. “You’ll notice I didn’t mention Breece Hall in that exploration, who stands as one of the worst on-paper plays versus ownership stances of the season, to me. I’m not sure why we are jumping out of our seats to play a running back averaging 13.4 XFP/G without Braelon Allen against an opponent that has been a top five run defense the previous month of play. For comparison, 13.4 XFP/G would rank 21^st in the league over the full season, behind D’Andre Swift (Hall averages 12.9 XFP/G this season, 22^nd in the league). Full fade for me.”

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Dillon Gabriel
Quinshon Judkins
Rhamondre Stevenson
CeeDee Lamb
Rashee Rice
Rasheed Shaheed
Harold Fannin
Mason Taylor
Patriots

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Quinshon Judkins

Buy, buy, buy!!!

I’ve explored this in-depth in podcasts and in my Journal this week, but a couple things I want to make clear:

1. Judkins will be a lock-button play for me this week
2. Judkins is a different “lock-button” play than some I’ve had in the past

We’ll start with that second point.

Some “lock-button” plays that came to mind for me when thinking about this were Justin Fields at $5.5k the first time he went off for a huge game (45.7 DK points) in 2022, and Josh Allen in Week 12 of 2023 when he went for 43.7 against the Eagles. On the Fields week, Joe Mixon also put up 50+, and on the Allen week, Jalen Hurts also popped for a big game, so neither guy ultimately “won you the week on their own”; but each guy essentially put up a score you had to have in order to compete that week, and it was the relatively high probability of that type of score that pushed me to lean so heavily on those guys in those weeks. That’s not how I see Judkins this week! I think it will be completely possible to win this week without him. The reason I like him is not “because I think he’s going to put the slate out of reach.” Instead, I like him because most scenarios in this spot have him easily clearing 16+, with very clear pathways to a score of 22-28; and unlike the last three weeks (when you could pick and choose among several running backs and get a great combination of scores), the running back position actually looks pretty thin this week. Because of this, I plan to simplify my process by just playing Judkins on every roster.

As to that first point (why I feel confident here), there are several factors at play.

1. For the first time since Baker Mayfield was run out of town, this looks like the Kevin Stefanski offense. In the same way that Mac Jones, for example (or Nick Mullens, or C.J. Beathard, etc.), has been able to step in and run the Shanahan offense, Gabriel has been able to step in and run the Stefanski offense. He might not be a standout talent, but he’s a good fit for a good, well-schemed offense.
2. The Dolphins are an “asterisk defense.” When I look through game logs, I’m constantly seeing big scores from individual players and then saying, “Okay, but I should keep in mind that this came against the Dolphins.”
3. Quinshon Judkins is central to this offense, and is also really good.

On the year, the Dolphins have allowed the following RB1 scores:

• 26.7 — Jonathan Taylor
• 21.2 — Rhamondre Stevenson (only one other game over 6.6)
• 23.8 — James Cook
• 16.1 — Breece Hall
• 35.4 — Rico Dowdle
• 25.8 — Kimani Vidal

If the weather cooperates in this one, all the better. But even with the Over/Under dropping due to weather concerns, Judkins’ rushing prop in this game is 95.5(!!!). That’s an absolutely absurd number. To put that number in perspective ::

• OPOY candidate Jonathan Taylor’s prop is at 88.5
• Last year’s OPOY Saquon Barkley’s prop is at 73.5
• Potentially-popular Breece Hall’s prop is 67.5

A 95.5 rushing prop is silly. We’re hoping Judkins can grab the 100-yard bonus and score a touchdown here, and Vegas is saying Judkins is just about a 50/50 bet to get the 100-yard bonus.

I’m confident pushing chips in on this play this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Double-Dip Brownies”

Quinshon Judkins + (insert additional Browns piece you like)

Story:

“The Dolphins are bad on defense”

Why It Works:

We probably need the weather to not be atrocious in order for this one to work; but if we get cooperation from the elements, there’s a pretty good chance that this competent, well-schemed offense is able to function at a respectable level against the Miami defense. If that’s the case, we end up with not only Quinshon Judkins looking good, but with one of the cheap Cleveland pass catchers looking good as well. Here’s what I said in one of my first Journal entries of the week this week ::

One of the easiest ways to unlock salary and differentiate from the field this week may be to play two Browns together. Not that this is a week where we’re “definitely going to see tourney-winning rosters featuring the highest-priced players on the slate,” but if you need to free up salary, Browns are going to be an obvious option this week. They are playing at home against a horrible Dolphins defense, and they are underpriced against that backdrop. Furthermore, the probable sentiment around the Browns’ offense is different from the reality of the Browns offense, which may give us a slight ownership discount in spite of the fact that Browns are popping in early-week optimizers (though realistically, Judkins and Fannin — assuming Njoku is out — could find their way to the top of the ownership pile this week in spite of sentiment around this offense likely being off; we’ll see).

What this offense is, with Dillon Gabriel:

Run-based.

Short-area focused.

But it’s also competent, and with Stefanski at the helm, it remains very well-schemed. Outside of Jeudy being not good at catching footballs, this offense isn’t shooting itself in the foot. And with the Dolphins unlikely to be able to consistently shut them down, this should lead to some sustained drives in this one. It will be a bit of an upset if this offense doesn’t reach at least 20 real-life points (and 27 wouldn’t surprise me), and these pieces are cheap enough that this probably yields value.

Judkins and Fannin are the obvious plays, but I do wonder if the deeply negative sentiment around Jeudy will leave him with very little ownership. I don’t like the play(er), but there comes a point where the convergence of matchup, role, ownership, and leverage makes a player like Jeudy attractive. We could reach that point this week.

And of course, playing two of these guys together is a way to offset some of the ownership we’re sure to see here. Yes, these players will be high-owned individually. But how many rosters will have the two popular guys together, or one of the popular guys paired with Jeudy?

How It Works:

My preference here is the Judkins + Fannin angle, but Judkins + Jeudy also has plenty of juice; and while I would prefer to include Gabriel on a Fannin + Jeudy build, there are pathways to this pairing working out nicely without Gabriel being the best way to play it.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Leverage King”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Nix + Denver D

Not that you’re necessarily tailing me on Bo Nix builds this week…but if you are, I like the idea of forcing some Denver D on some of my Bo Nix builds. Generally speaking, I have rules in my opto sets (or I at least shop for rosters in my opto sets that follow this rule) of “Don’t play my quarterback with their own DST,” as my quarterback plays are typically a bet on the game environment taking off. But my attraction to the Broncos this week is effectively attraction to the idea of the Broncos smashing in this spot in a blowout win, and keeping their foot on the gas pedal throughout (something we’ve seen Sean Payton do with this team in the past). Nix rosters won’t be overwhelmingly popular to begin with, but “Nix + Denver D” will be especially low-owned, and there is a pathway to this being a really sharp way to build.

This rule says, “On 30% of Bo Nix rosters, include the Denver D” (on 30% of rosters with the locked player, include a minimum of two ‘players’ from this pool).

$6.19/Week:

Just a reminder :: the Bink Machine is an outrageously useful tool for single-entry/3-Max. We intentionally keep the price tag on the Bink Machine cheap (as far as I know, it’s cheaper than any other optimizer out there) in order for our SE/3-Max users to feel like they can justify the cost. If you typically play playoff DFS, you’re basically paying $6.19 per Main Slate with a $99 Bink Machine pass. If you use it for a week and don’t find it to be useful, reach out to support and we’ll refund your money. Get in there to try it out if you can.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Jayden Daniels || Dak Prescott || >>—<< || Patrick Mahomes || Drake Maye || Bo Nix || Dillon Gabriel >>—<< || It’s a wide-open week at quarterback, especially if Jayden // Dak somehow disappoint, with viable cases to be made for many others, including Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields, and others

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Jonathan Taylor – JT is in the midst of a potentially historic running back season and has a terrific matchup against a poor run defense and fast-paced offense. 
• Quinshon Judkins – Judkins is the workhorse for a team that is likely to run, run, run, and he is facing an incredibly bad Miami run defense.
• Saquon Barkley – The Eagles are struggling this season and the reality is that their dominant 2024 season was propelled by building their offense around Barkley. They are likely to try to get back to their roots here and Barkley’s ceiling is 35+ points.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt – “Bill” also has a terrific matchup this week and just set a season high in snap rate and touches, while playing in by far the highest game total on the slate.
• Josh Jacobs – Over 30 points in consecutive games and the centerpiece of his team’s offense, playing in a game where his team is favored and expected to score points. 
• Kimani Vidal – This is a back that has an explosive skill set and thrives in the passing game as well. His salary doesn’t represent the upside that he possesses in a strong offense and explosive game environment.

For the MME Crowd ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Calculated Madness

There’s a fine line between chaos and control — and that line is usually drawn by whoever’s holding the mouse. Every week, the field chases comfort: projections, matchups, and the illusion of certainty. But that’s not where the edge lives. The edge lives in the noise — in the moments where we build something that looks reckless but is actually rooted in correlation, leverage, and ownership math. This isn’t blind aggression; it’s intentional risk wrapped in DFS zen. Find the angles that make people nervous, pair them with the plays that make sense, and suddenly the madness starts to look like strategy.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

Quentin Johnston + Alec Pierce

Plenty of guys from this game carry double-digit ownership, so this pairing provides tasty leverage if both realize the potential in their big-play archetype. It’s cheap, correlated volatility in a game everyone else thinks they’ve already solved.

Johnston (8.3%), Pierce (3.1%)

Xavier Worthy + Tre Tucker

Ultimate leverage. Pure speed. Rashee Rice will be on a third of the field’s rosters, but what if he’s just the 7/70/0 chain-mover while Worthy turns Arrowhead into a track meet? Tucker brings matching big-play juice from the other sideline, and if he connects once, the fireworks start. Two human spark plugs and a perfect bet against the comfort zone. Leapfrog City, baby. Let’s go.

Worthy (6.1%), Tucker (3.4%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.

Picking Games

Week 7 has four games that pique my interest:

• WAS/DAL (55)
• CHI/NO (46)
• IND/LAC (48.5)
• PHI/MIN (44)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Commanders @ Cowboys

The Cowboys are “that team” for 2025 and have been a participant in my favorite game environments for a month. They combine an excellent, pass-first offense with an atrocious defense. Think of last year’s Bengals. The hardest part about stacking this game is that everyone carries a high cost, and there are too many good options, making it easy to choose wrongly. CeeDee Lamb is set to return, which should be good for overall scoring, but also makes the Cowboys offense less condensed. George Pickens was nothing but great in Lamb’s absence, but he was essentially a non-factor before Lamb went down. What happens now? It’s difficult to know, and with both Cowboys receivers priced at the top of the slate, you must get that choice correct. I’m going to favor using Lamb, but I don’t have a high confidence interval in that decision. Jake Ferguson is priced based on his production without Lamb. I’m going to use him in stacks and leave him alone otherwise. Deebo Samuel has been awesome, mostly without Terry McLaurin on the field, and F1 has been ruled out for this game. I’m going to use Deebo in game stacks and as a one-off. Bill Croskey-Merritt is the best player from this game. He’s affordable, has a great matchup, and can be used on his own or in game stacks. This game is going to be a circus, but it’s not as easy to stack as it first appears. I’ll likely use Daniels + Deebo + Bill + Lamb.

saints @ bears

The Saints are another team that consistently creates strong game environments. They run a ton of plays, aren’t afraid to be aggressive, and have a bad defense. The only thing that separates them from the Cowboys is that their offense isn’t as good, so they’re less likely to push other teams into aggression. The Bears are the type of team that will try and score regardless of whether they’re winning, which makes them a good fit against the Saints to create a high scoring game. The Saints are all remarkably cheap for their usage (because of poor efficiency), and with DJ Moore going to the hospital after last week’s game, his condition is up in the air. If Moore sits, both Odunze and Burden become strong plays. If Moore plays, Odunze is the guy you want as a bring back with Saints stacks. I haven’t decided what side I want to stack this game from yet, but if I go Bears, it’ll be Caleb Williams + D’Andre Swift + Odunze + Olave. From the Saints side, it’ll be Rattler + Olave + Rashid Shaheed + Odunze.

colts @ chargers

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 7 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. One Game To Rule Them All

3. Block Parties Part III

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

1. Commanders // Cowboys. Not only do we have a monster total here, but we also have a monster total with relatively few paths to outright failure. The price tags are high enough that we aren’t “definitely getting tourney-winners from this game” but the setup of this game is, at the very least, strong enough that we have to be thinking about all our decisions on this slate in the context of this one game.
2. After three consecutive weeks in which you could have a pool of eight or nine running backs and probably get an elite combination of scores from multiple sets of players within that pool, this week gives us a relatively thin running back pool.
3. Wide receiver is relatively thin as well.
4. Pricing is tight!

I think we’ve found some angles throughout the week that will help us to maximize the edges we create on this unique slate, but those are the four elements that stand out to me as being unique/different in this week compared to others.

Xandamere >>

I’d say it’s the first week in a while that doesn’t have a whole pile of smash running back plays. There are some RB plays who are good on paper, of course – and it’s possible we get some value as there are a couple of questionable guys – but it’s been a while since we’ve not had at least 2-3 objectively great RB plays with some combination of high floor, high ceiling, great matchup, and cheap price. We also have the highest total game that we’ve seen this season on the slate with WAS/DAL checking in at a whopping 54.5 point total, whereas no other game is even at 50. Slates with very obvious “best games” are often very interesting slates to attack.

Hilow >>

From a macro perspective, this is the first “pay up at QB” slate of the season. People are going to want to jam in Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott as the quarterbacks on the teams with the top three team totals. We also have mounting chalk that works in conjunction with those pay-up options, primarily the middle range at running back and Rashee Rice. Those players all project extremely well and are solid on-paper plays, but I wonder if there are other ways to attack this slate (hint, hint). I also wonder if the chalk is a little bit more fragile on this slate than it has been in recent weeks (hint, hint). This leaves us with an interesting puzzle to piece together through a theoretical framework, which I will do my best to unpack in the End Around and on The Slate podcast. 

Mike >>

There is a clear top game environment (WAS/DAL), but that game has a lot of questions around it and could see usage/production spread out as the Commanders deal with injury uncertainty and have a rotating cast of players who could be involved and the Cowboys welcome back CeeDee Lamb while their other guys are priced for how the team operated without him. Then there is a clear second game environment (IND/LAC) where the Colts are very concentrated and the Chargers all have modest salaries. On the other end of the spectrum, we have three spots where there is potential for massive blowouts and one-sided affairs (KC, NE, and DEN). And bringing it all home, we have two games (MIA/CLE and NO/CHI) with massive weather concerns. This week really does have a bit of everything that makes a DFS slate fun!

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2. One Game To Rule Them All

The Question ::

We have a massive decision point on our hands this week with the WAS/DAL game, that has a game total of 55 points and the potential to turn into a true shootout that dominates a slate – especially given the context of a slightly smaller slate, lack of value options, and some games with weather concerns. This game also has questions around it as far as personnel with the Commanders receivers having injury issues and the Cowboys welcoming CeeDee Lamb back to the lineup. 

As this is such a huge decision point this week, I figured it deserved its own question in this week’s Oracle. So with all that said, how are you planning to handle this game and what players or angles do you prefer for handling this game?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

It’s Week 7, so why not switch it up a little. My prevailing thought at this point in the season is what I mentioned in the Angles email, which is to challenge our thoughts. There’s going to be so much common groupthink as we have such rich, sizable data by now that it’s the perfect week to flip this on its head. Before you proceed, you should actually skip back up to The Oracle to get the gang’s answers on the “that was so obvious, we should have seen it” hindsight questions because those should be in all bold and all caps this week. That’s essentially what I am going to tackle here through my POV, the thought challenges to what could happen that wouldn’t be so crazy it was improbable.

Some appetizers that didn’t make the cut include:

• Can the Bears follow a surprising win with a dominant one?
• Should we expect the Cowboys offense to seamlessly flow with CeeDee back?
• Can we expect the Commanders offense to seamlessly flow without their top two wideouts?
• Will the Broncos or Patriots run to statement wins (i.e., blowouts) to be considered “for real”?
• With over 80% of the money on the Chiefs laying points, should we expect the Raiders to even get off the bus in Arrowhead?

Thought challenge #1: Can the second-highest total game be the one you had to have?

Play: Herbert + Taylor + Ladd + Warren

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider:

• Finding An Edge
  • The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry. Most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

• Ownership Strategy:
  • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates”, just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
  • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are less alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
  • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
  • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 7 Overview

This week, the afternoon slate consists of four games, with the massive total of the WAS/DAL game looming large. That game will be the primary focus for many people for the main slate, which means it will also be a primary focus for this smaller slate, and ownership of individual players is likely to rise somewhat meaningfully. The IND/LAC game will also be extremely popular, which leaves a situation where most lineups will be built heavily around those two games, with a couple of pieces from the other two games mixed in around it. The Packers and Broncos are somewhat big favorites and both have paths to putting up 4 four touchdowns, which could alter the slate significantly if it happens in the right way. It seems like building lineups around the Broncos or having game stacks of GB/ARI would be a great way to approach things from a strategy lens and “creating a clear path to the top.” 

QB Strategy::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback ::

• Patrick Mahomes – Not complicated. He is balling and his weapons have never been stronger.
• Jayden Daniels – Also not complicated, Daniels is immensely talented and has close to the best possible matchup — cheap stacking options to boot.
• Bo Nix – The Broncos have had fluctuating performances this season, but they are not afraid to run up the score, and Nix has a huge ceiling thanks to his ability to rack up big plays and rushing production.
• Justin Herbert – Modest salary, tough rushing matchup, clear stacking partners, opposing secondary is depleted, and just gave up 320 passing yards to Jacoby Brissett.

Running Back::

• Jonathan Taylor – JT is in the midst of a potentially historic running back season and has a terrific matchup against a poor run defense and fast-paced offense. 
• Quinshon Judkins – Judkins is the workhorse for a team that is likely to run, run, run, and he is facing an incredibly bad Miami run defense.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt – “Bill” also has a terrific matchup this week and just set a season high in snap rate and touches, while playing in by far the highest game total on the slate.
• Saquon Barkley – The Eagles are struggling this season and the reality is that their dominant 2024 season was propelled by building their offense around Barkley. They are likely to try to get back to their roots here and Barkley’s ceiling is 35+ points.
• Kimani Vidal – This is a back that has an explosive skill set and thrives in the passing game as well. His salary doesn’t represent the upside that he possesses in a strong offense and explosive game environment. 
• Javonte Williams – This game is going to have a lot of touchdowns and Javonte could easily post a strong yardage total while accounting for multiple scores.
• Rhamondre Stevenson // JK Dobbins – Throwing these two in here as a nod to the fact that their teams could easily score four or five touchdowns this week and each of them has paths to scoring multiple times.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

JK Dobbins + Rhamondre Stevenson + KC Defense

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• Week 7 provides another 10-game main slate with the Bills and Ravens on bye, another early London game, and another double-header on MNF. This week, we are back to six early kickoffs and four in the late afternoon. 
• The Commanders at Cowboys game kicking off in the later window is getting lots of DFS love, for good reason, with an astronomical 54.5 implied point total that is six points higher than any other game on the slate. Dallas (27.5) has the 2nd highest team total on the slate, while Washington (26.5) has the 3rd.
• The Chiefs (28.75) are the only team with a higher implied total; they host the Raiders in the early window. After those three, four of the next six highest implied team totals on the main slate also come from the afternoon window:
  • Packers (25.75) at the Cardinals (19.25)
  • Chargers (25.0) hosting the Colts (23.5)
  • The Broncos (23.75) are hosting the Giants (16.75)
• While I don’t see myself playing much from the Denver game, I do intend to play several gamestacks and other correlations across the other three afternoon games.
• The starting point for my SE/3-Max builds this week is simply to be strategic about who I’m playing from the early set of games, and in which combinations, so that I can get plenty of exposure to the set of later kickoffs with some of the slate’s top implied team totals.

Running Back Approach