Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!!!
We’ll start out Week 6 prep with a simple question: “What is your edge?”
The word edge has a few different meanings, but having an edge is more grounded. It is defined as being slightly ahead of, possibly due to a superior quality or attribute. Finding ways to have an edge is more or less what predicting sports outcomes is all about.
If you’re playing any kind of lines against sportsbooks, betting team outcomes, player props, or building a roster portfolio for DFS, you (we) are constantly seeking an edge. So, naturally as you read and see content throughout a given week, you’ll inevitably come across a promised “edge” from a content provider who uncovers the how and why this edge exists and tells you how to play it. But what is our edge, really?
It could be found through sharp content providers because when you’re good, you can almost always find the right data and play that process until the edge ceases to exist. We have no shortage of information and data in 2025, and where there’s volume, there’s nearly always inefficiency. What strikes me, however, is that edges can come and go. In any venture we’re going to run hot, we’re going to run cold, especially when it comes to sports prediction and betting, where we have no control over the outcomes.
The other interesting piece to consider is with the plethora of information at our fingertips, the markets we play in are efficient. We can look at nearly every week of Vegas lines and over/unders in NFL games and realize how hard it is to sustain success. We can look at GPP lineups in a handful of weeks so far this season (including Week 5) where sims and optimizers spit out more than half of the best plays for the perfect roster.
But the pervasive takeaway about where edges exist is that they are constantly in motion. Last week is not this week just like last season is not this season. Behind success is likely failure, and behind failure is likely more success. The true ability to have an edge only exists in what we can sustain. And the only edge we can truly sustain is being ourselves. The only long-term edge you have is being you.
The cool aspect of this is that the being you part is completely subjective. Therefore, everyone has a unique edge. You frequently hear the content providers at OWS talk about their edges being how they (we) see things, how they (we) interpret games, and why our weird brains sometimes process things the way they do. Your edge could be similar, where you look at things differently than most. Your edge could be how you interpret the content you consume (thinking some are full of it, some genuine and sharp, etc.). Your edge could also be how you block out all the nonsense and carve out your path every week.
The point this week is that we all have an edge, and it’s us. We can always find short-term edges in many different places, but we should always realize that our only sustainable edge is ourselves.
It’s Week 6, we’re moving through the season swiftly now, and what’s most important is that you maintain your edge and don’t change your ways. It’s the best (only) way to attack the next slate, and the one after that, and the one after that…
OWS Player Grids Are Completely Free This Week
If you are an OWS Free member, just a heads up that player grids at OWS are FREE this week only. That includes core player pools from JM, Hilow, and Mike, as well as Papy’s Pieces and Sonic’s MME grid.Â
All you have to do is check The Scroll on Saturday. Pretty, pretty cool!
Week 6 :: Built Different
As a father of three kids under five, I came across some sage advice recently…”no matter what you do as a parent, no two children ever have the same childhood experience.” This is because everything is circumstantial. Even two children born to the same parents a year or so apart will have wildly different experiences. Why?
Because the parents are different with a first child vs. a second child. Because the second child has a sibling whereas the first did not. And pretty much everything else is also different, every year. So even as a parent who can try to control most things, you simply can’t. If nothing else, it teaches you to understand each child differently and recognize the variables that exist.
At first glance, Week 6 looks eerily similar to Week 5.
The Cowboys match up in perhaps the game of the week (Week 5 at Jets, Week 6 at Carolina). The Colts host another team at home favored by around a touchdown (Week 5 vs. Las Vegas, Week 6 hosting Arizona). The Bengals are massive underdogs (albeit now with a new QB in Joe Flacco) this week at Green Bay (Week 5 same situation hosting Detroit). The Bucs and Seahawks are involved in a game that could be a shootout (Week 5 vs. each other, Week 6- 49ers at Bucs and Seahawks at Jags).
We also have another week where Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Lamar Jackson are expected to be out. The former two bring RB chalk back into our lives once again with Rico Dowdle and Rachaad White. Oh, and it’s a 10-game slate, just like last week.
Looks similar, but built differently. I promise you.
How? Let’s look at some natural angles we can explore in Week 6:
Cowboys at Panthers: Without being as much of a rushing threat, Bryce Young likely won’t be the chalk Justin Fields was last week. The Panthers offense has shown more than the Jets, as well, and Dowdle added a new element last week. Now he gets his former team? Sign me up. Jalen Coker could also return for Carolina, while CeeDee Lamb’s possible return would change how the Cowboys approach things. The Cowboys offense hummed on all cylinders last week, so will they have a repeat performance or change anything in their approach as road favorites?
Cardinals at Colts:Â Indy holds a healthy 27-point implied total and as seven-point favorites over a possibly Kyler-less Cardinals team. How many touchdowns is too many touchdowns for Jonathan Taylor here? The Colts dominated the Raiders in Week 5 in a similar scenario, but even if we get Jacoby Brissett under center for Arizona, there has to be some fight in this team proving something after the abnormal loss they suffered in Week 5 to Tennessee.
49ers at Bucs: At face value, this game holds the simplest-to-see shootout potential next to Carolina // Dallas, after both of these offenses moved the ball with ease last week (Mac Jones 342/2, Baker Mayfield 379/2). The absence of Irving and Mike Evans continues to condense the Bucs’ offensive tree, and the 49ers still run everything through Christian McCaffrey. Easy to see a player block forming, and easy to envision points being scored in bunches. If this game plays to the downside, it’s likely we see the old or hobbled Jones and Robert Saleh’s defense gives Mayfield fits.
Seahawks at Jags: Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence playing for two real contenders in their respective conferences in Week 6. Not sure I had that on my card, but we have to respect it at this point. Seattle was forced into aggressive offense by Tampa Bay last week. Will Jacksonville do the same? The Jags D has been a sneaky unit so far this season, leading the NFL with 14 takeaways. They’ve completely shifted some of Jacksonville’s outcomes. Can they sustain it?
Patriots at Saints: The NFL was banking on Bengals and Packers being the late game of the week here in the schedule release, but instead we may get Pats and Saints being slightly more competitive. Drake Maye can ride the high from last week’s win into New Orleans, but the Saints also seemed to finally figure out how to score points in Week 5. We’re all getting more comfortable with offenses backed by Maye and Spencer Rattler. Illusion, reality, or time to go touch some grass?
The best of the rest includes the Rams and their 26-point total traveling to Baltimore. The field will be all over a now priced-up Puka Nacua // The Chargers bring new injuries and a new running back room into Miami, whose run defense is a bottom-two unit in the league by seemingly every metric // The Raiders host the Titans and are favored in a game they may still not have Brock Bowers for. How many touches is too many for Ashton Jeanty here?Â
So many ways to build, so many voices will come at you this week. Remember this: your edge is being you.
And with that we’ll see you on the site this weekend, bantering about the free player grids in Discord, and as always at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday!
This is your one-week season!
~Larejo
JM’s Journal
By JMToWin
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
JM’s journal will be live throughout the weekend BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS
TUESDAY, OCT. 7 FIRST-LOOK THOUGHTS ::
RAMS-RAVENS ::
just opening up this week’s slate. first game listed is lar // bal. people go overboard in their expectations of how bad a “bad defense” will be, but it’s probably fair to assume the rams will find a way to score points here.
the field is sure to be heavily focused on the rams, with likely pretty broad consensus that puka is a strong play (some will surely even say “must play”) at $8.7k. realistically, he’s a solid play. he’ll have a strong shot at 25-30, with outside potential for more. but unless genuinely strong value opens up this week (like what we talked about last week with dowdle — value where you’re not just playing it for the savings, but are in fact playing it for the raw ceiling and range of points you think is possible; without that opening up…), Puka is unlikely to actually be a key decision point. i.e., most often, once we get to this price range, these guys are scoring enough that everyone who rostered them is happy, but not so much that people who missed out are too bothered by it. (think typical cmc production — mid to high 20s; occasionally low 30s; and every so often, a score way above or way below their typical range.) obviously, the value of this type of player is influenced by how the slate shapes up. what does salary look like by sunday morning? and how many players on the slate have scored 20-25+ by sunday evening? but generally speaking, these guys aren’t actually key decision points, even though a lot of conversation and brain power usually revolves around them.
we’ll also see a lot of discussion this week about what davante’s target share and touchdown opportunity will look like at his fairly-high price tag, with probably a lot of binary takes: “davante is a smash play this week” // “davante is an awful play this week”
but the question that interests me is: do the ravens get stomped, or is this something of a game?
because the rams defense is good…but more in that they’re disruptive often enough to kill a few drives each game. add that to an offense that can always score points and the fact that most opposing offenses will shoot themselves in the foot at least a couple times, and this starts to really condense scoring opportunities for these opponents. (if you disrupt 2/10 drives and the opponent messes up 2/10 drives, they start running out of chances to keep pace. and sometimes, they can fall behind and become one-dimensional, which serves you well with your pass rush, leading to another disruption or two.)
but in spite of what things looked like last week against a texans d that’s a different type of “good” (clamp down and make it tough for you to move the ball on every single play — or in other words, “we’re really good, and we won’t give up big plays, so you have to find a way to be a little bit better than us all the way down the field”), cooper rush is still a decent nfl quarterback, in a good offense, with great weapons.
in my opinion, zay flowers ($5.9k) and derrick henry ($6.2k) are two of the actual key decision points. because i don’t imagine either guy will be too popular. and if this is a close, high-scoring game (which i think is absolutely possible), one of them could hit in a big enough way, at a cheap enough price tag, to genuinely matter on this slate.
COWBOYS-PANTHERS ::
oh, man. then dallas // carolina.
i’m geeking out over here. what a slate!
i literally paused watching miami // carolina to start looking at the slate and hammering in some notes. and when i paused it, i was thinking…
the narrative around bryce young shapes our perception of him. quarterbacks take time to develop. look at darnold. look at daniel jones. baker had more flashes with cleveland than those guys, but he’s still a far more impressive “finished product” than he was back then. two other guys from that same draft class (what a draft class — & lol josh rosen), in lamar and josh allen, didn’t really reach the peak of their powers until the last couple years. (those guys are still improving, of course; but they’re improving by fractions of a percent at this point, as they’re already so nearly flawless.)
i’m not suggesting that bryce young will have a similar arc, but he shows serious flashes sometimes. the first touchdown drive from carolina after they went down 17-0 (on the back of a bryce fumble and overthrow pick) was as good as anything drake maye had done on sunday night to be the talk of the nfl streets on monday. (drake maye is going to end up as a top-100 player this year, and in the little video that nfl films does around the top 100, they’ll show the play of that stiff-arm throw.) and bryce has had games where he put it all together. and watching that drive, i was thinking, “i’m going to keep playing bryce young stacks this year, especially if/when he’s in a soft matchup.”
and now he’s playing the cowboys.
and to go with how bad the cowboys’ defense is, their offense is tremendous.
i do think that eberflus’ scheme is starting to take root a bit for dallas. (he’s a very solid defensive coach. he’s not some dunce out there.) and of course, there’s risk of bryce not having it this week. but this whole game has top-of-slate potential.
two bangers at the top.
CHIMERE DIKE // TITANS DST ANGLE ::
wow. dike + titans dst pairing. $5.4k.
titans d vs a vegas offense that’s very boom or bust, with a regressed geno. not a “great play,” but a solid value option with paths to ceiling and a moderately low chance of just completely tanking a roster. and dike has tremendous speed, has recent target counts of 5 // 4 // 0 // 5, with several near-misses on downfield throws, vs a defense that plays a lot of cover-3 and gets hit for downfield throws…all for $3k, because the connection hasn’t hit yet and he’s a averaging a lowly 2.1 points per game. and then on top of that, he’s the special teams ace for the titans. there is a timeline on which he goes 3-110-1, while also returning a kick for a score and getting you the double-up with the titans’ d (i.e., 29 dk points, plus getting the six for the td again from your dst.) it’s like playing a $5.4k player who is mostly going to score 6-12, but is capable of going for 25-40. (or basically: a.j. brown)
this is basically a must-play on a small % of rosters in the milly maker (paging @SonicLibrarian_nhpain!), but i found it while building a roster that i really liked, that included jsn and puka, and that had only $5.4k left for dst/flex. i had already set the titans aside in my mind as a viable cheap option, so the dike piece falling into place was a solid enough setup that i actually like the roster (with that block) for se/3-max too (maybe 5% exposure or something). good risk/reward setup.
POTENTIAL BROWNS PAIRINGS ::
20.3 // 17.8 // 14.5 // 7.6 // 30.0
that’s a game log of a typical $7k player.
that $7k player ($6.9k) can cover two spots on your roster if you want, this week, while freeing up salary for high-end pieces elsewhere, in the form of fannin + njoku (to whom those combined scores belong). they’re likely to land in the high-teens or low-20s this week, but there is ceiling for more.
arizona has not inspired confidence on offense this year, but they are the type of team that can play any game close; and the colts should be able to march the field on this defense, which could eventually lead to each of these teams scoring in the high-20s. if that happens, there’s a good chance a coming-around marvin harrison jr is part of the recipe for success.
at $5.3k, he carries low enough risk, with high enough ceiling, that he’s interesting this week.
at the very least, he’ll be involved for an offense that will probably be forced to try to score points, vs a secondary that has not been good this year.
DOLPHINS’ DST POTENTIAL ::
if no defense looks good on paper this week…are the dolphins viable? with the injuries to the chargers’ offensive line and now backfield, they don’t look good right now. herbert is pressing and making mistakes. they might not be able to run vs this awful run d. 10 am body clock start for the chargers, in miami where it’s always tough for visiting teams.
i was poking around on a herbert build and then thinking, “but honestly, i expect this game to be relatively lower-scoring.” if that’s the case, miami could score 5-8 points pretty easily at $2.2k.
MID-WEEK RB THOUGHTS ::
rbs who can have decently high-probability cases made for them for a multi-td game (based on role, offense, matchup, etc.) ::
kyren
javonte
dowdle if chuba misses
jt
etienne
possibly either seattle back
outside shot at judkins
jeanty
jacobs
cmc
tampa backfield
JM’S OVERALL NFL BETTING APPROACH // CAVEATS::
I wanted to drop the bets I’ve been taking; but before I do that, a quick note ::
As with DFS (duh), you should only ever bet money you can comfortably lose. This is obvious; but A) because we play DFS for asymmetric payouts, it can make us want to bump up the money we put at risk in bets, since the gains are smaller; and B) most people have very little budget/financial discipline or foresight, which gets them into trouble when it comes to betting.
Two things to remember:
1) Betting can become a problem for certain personality types quite easily…and
2) When betting over/unders, game lines, and money lines, we probably don’t have an edge over the books!!!
Said differently: in an area where we probably don’t have an edge, people can nevertheless get too aggressive thinking this is where they will make their money.
With very limited betting so far, I’m up 5.18 units on the season.
Realistically, I expect that to creep back down toward zero if I continue to bet.
At the same time ::
1) I’ve been watching all the games.
2) There are very unique angles/eyes through which I watch the games that are giving me a very good feel for things.
3) I don’t drop bets on all the games; I only bet on places where I feel I have an edge.
Against that (lengthy, but probably-necessary) backdrop, here are the bets I have open at the moment, for anyone interested:
NOTE: I bet a little differently than most; rather than betting “to win one unit” (i.e., betting 110 to win 100 at -110), I just always bet one unit (i.e., if a unit were $100 for me, I would still bet $100, even at -110). This is just how my mind works, and is how I’ll track accounting on this. Consider this a little test to see if this is something I’ll keep dropping in here for now. (Obviously, if — against all odds — we start finding consistent success here, this will eventually become paywalled. But we’ll keep it as a bonus for the time being; just a little bit of fun on the side.)
WEEK 6 bETS ::
I took the Broncos at -6.5 over the Jets. The line is now -7.5, which I don’t see as much edge in, but if you can find -6.5 anywhere, I still like that. Potential points of failure: the Broncos are big-play hunters on offense, and are inconsistent in this area, which could allow the score to remain close, especially if some fluky things happen early. But in most scenarios, I see this game eventually becoming uncompetitive, which makes the -6.5 feel pretty safe. The Broncos are a Super Bowl contender, and the Jets are an obvious front-runner for the number one pick.
Last week (early lines), I took the Cowboys -3.5 over the Panthers. I’m actually a bit more on the fence about this one now. The Cowboys are the better team (purely in that they are consistent on offense, while the Panthers kill too many of their drives with mistakes, somewhat offsetting the edge the Dallas D provides them), but I could easily see this being a field-goal game. I’ll track this in my own accounting because I took the bet (duh), but it’s not a strong lean for me at this point.
Bills // Falcons over 49.5. 49.5 is a big number, but the Bills are capable of scoring against any defense, even a solid one like the Falcons, and the Bills are fundamentally bad against the run, which should keep this Falcons offense on schedule throughout. If the Bills sell out to stop the run, the Falcons can throw against this defense. If you’re the Falcons, you’re also taking on Josh Allen, so you don’t go into the game assuming you can be conservative when you have the ball. There is opportunity for elevated scoring here, and while this doesn’t feel like the Broncos bet (where I think we easily win over 70% of the time), this is still +EV — something we would get more than 55% of the time.
I took the Bengals at +14.5 vs the Packers. This has since dropped to +13.5, which I wouldn’t take, but if you can find a +14.5, I still like it. The Bengals defense is rounding into form (they still aren’t good, but they are no longer awful), the Packers are not a precision offense like the Lions (they run and hunt for big plays, which is higher-variance), and the Bengals are going to continue reevaluting things and finding ways to minimize their weaknesses on offense. Potential point of failure is if the Bengals’ players are checked out mentally at this point — which I don’t quite think we’ll see, as their record says they are still alive, and Burrow still has a chance to come back and save them late in the season. Last week, I took the Lions -10.5 vs the Bengals, along with several small-$ alt lines (-11.5, -16.5, -23.5, etc.). Point is: I think the Bengals are bad; I just think this matchup is a little bit different.
I took the Patriots money line vs the Saints — it was -205 when I took it, and you’re getting even better odds now at -185 (DK). The Patriots are a playoff team, and the Saints will likely win 3-5 games. Even on the road, the Patriots win this game the vast majority of the time. Risk factors are the Patriots coming out flat (which is not all that likely on a Vrabel/McDaniels team) or some fluky bounces of the ball going the Saints’ way early.
BETS ON WEEK 7 LOOK-AHEAD LINES ::
If this one is still available, I love it :: Seahawks -2.5 at home against the Texans. The Texans scored six points through three quarters against the Titans, and then smashed a Ravens team playing nine backups on defense. The Seahawks are legitimate Super Bowl contenders in a stacked NFC. This was -115 when I took it, and I saw it had moved to -118 later in the day. Biggest risk factor is that the Seahawks have some key injuries this week, or just come out flat vs the Texans. The Texans have a tremendous defense, but their offense is still not good.
Panthers +2.5 at the Jets. The Panthers are the better team, and are underdogs here. Simple as that.
I also increased my stake in the Seahawks // Texans game by putting together a parlay of Patriots money line vs Titans + Seahawks -2.5 vs Texans.
WEEK 5 BETTING REVIEW ::
In Week 5, I had:
4 units on the Patriots at +8.5 vs the Bills.
1 unit on the Saints at -1.5 vs the Giants.
0.667 units on the Saints -115 to win vs the Giants.
1 unit on the Lions at -10 vs the Bengals.
0.467 units spread up a ladder on the Lions winning by a lot (one leg hit; the others didn’t).
RICO DOWDLE EARLY WEEK 6 THOUGHTS ::
Chuba Hubbard missed practice on Wednesday, which sets up Dowdle for another full workload if we keep trending in this direction. Dowdle played 67% of snaps last week (not a monster number), but he saw 84% of the running back touches, and is clearly in the alpha role (as expected) with Chuba out. As noted last week: he’s also a good NFL running back. Not great — but not a whole lot different from Chuba, either.
Realistically, we’re likelier to get 16-22 DK points than we are to get a tourney-winner, and if Chuba misses, Dowdle could easily be higher-owned this week at $5.8k than he was last week at $4.3k. But he’s still a rock-solid, “don’t overthink it” type of play if he’s in the lead role once again.
We’re also pretty good (at OWS // as a community) at understanding when to worry about narratives and when to ignore them. Dowdle playing his old team is a narrative worth leaning into. He’s a good play without that, and the narrative gives him a small boost. This spot feels similar to a couple spots we’ve had recently:
Jordan Mason’s first start :: I emphasized the fact, that week, that Mason was a rock solid play at his price, and was unlikely to actually be a difference-maker on the slate, but that he did have that within his range of outcomes. He proceeded to post 26.6 DK points on a slate where most running backs disappointed.
Javonte Williams last week :: I relentlessly compared Javonte Williams to James Conner last week, saying that he provides plenty of value for the fact that he’ll almost always score 15+ points, with plenty of scores in the low-20s, and with somewhere around two to four games likely on tap this year in which he’ll push for close to (or even more than) 30. He proceeded to post 29.9 last week.
Both of those guys were among my highest-owned players on their respective slates not because I expected the big game, but because I knew the solid game was highly likely, and the big game was within the range of outcomes.
Assuming Chuba misses, that’s where Dowdle lands this week for me. (Or…it’s Wednesday. But that’s where my thoughts stand at the moment.)
WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS ON OTHER RBs IN DOWDLE’S PRICE RANGE ::
@everyone — also in the Dowdle price range (a stacked price range this week) ::
$5.9k, Etienne :: the least attractive play of the bunch on paper, but two games already of 21+, and there are certainly outside opportunities for a bigger game than that in one of the better-schemed rushing attacks in the NFL.
$5.9k, Judkins :: a future $7k back. I haven’t verified this stat, but I heard it on Chris Simms’ podcast, which is credible: Judkins is averaging 6.0 yards per carry against eight-man boxes this year. Furthermore, Judkins pops when watching the Browns, and has touch counts (since being unleashed) of 19 // 25 // 24. The 24 touches came on only 39 snaps last week. When he’s on the field, they are riding him. The big risk factor here is overall offensive failure vs the Steelers. If the Browns can score a couple offensive touchdowns, there’s a good chance both are coming from Judkins.
$6.0k, Rachaad White :: You know the deal by now. White had only 41 yards on 14 carries last week. We’re not rostering him for his rushing chops; and frankly, with Bucky Irving priced at $7k, White is a bit overpriced at $6k. But running backs are heavily involved in the passing offense for this team, and White’s two touchdowns last week remind us of what can happen if everything comes together. He ranks below Judkins, for sure (and given the probable delta in ownership, Etienne is probably more +EV as well, in spite of White being the better play on paper), but he’s still very much in the mix.
$6.3k, Kyren :: Eight catches last week. Four touchdowns on the season. 15+ touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Kyren’s likeliest output is 14-22 DK points, but another spiked week isn’t out of the question.
$6.4k, Javonte :: I’ll keep banging the drum that the Panthers defense is not as bad as public perception would have us believe, and they are more solid against the run this year than most DFS players realize. But Javonte’s “James Conner arc” isn’t going away.
Putting these $5.8k to $6.4k guys into tiers, I’d currently say ::
1 :: Dowdle
2a :: Javonte // Judkins
2b :: Kyren // Rachaad
3 :: Etienne (but with EV added for the fact that he’ll almost certainly be low-owned)
I’d be fine rearranging/ranking those middle four guys in any way you want.
an interesting note to go with this: Kyren Williams averaged 17.9 DK points per game last year. Chuba (in the role Dowdle will continue to have) averaged 17.1 DK points per game last year. De’Von Achane (who people jump out of their boots to roster at a much higher price tag each week) averaged 18.0 DK points per game last year. Just a little tidbit to highlight the strength of some of these lower-cost RB plays.
Josh Jacobs averaged 17.9 last year. Pricing psychology is funny.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INITIAL BINK MACHINE RUN ::
My computer stayed off this week until tonight, so I just fired up the Bink Machine for the first time.
Here’s a quick look at what a mid-week run pushed my way, based off mid-week projections (without blending in ceiling projections) ::
25% or higher ::
Herbert
Jonathan Taylor Kyren Williams Rachaad White Derrick Henry Josh Jacobs Quinshon Judkins Javonte Williams
Keenan Allen Chris Olave Michael Pittman Puka Nacua
Tyler Warren Trey McBride
Saints Raiders
15% to 25% ::
Daniel Jones Spencer Rattler
De’Von Achane Christian McCaffrey
Quentin Johnston Tetairoa McMillan Ladd McConkey Marvin Harrison Jr. Jerry Jeudy
Juwan Johnson
QBs 10% to 15% ::
Kyler Murray
QBs 5% to 10%
Bryce Young
Notable “snubs” ::
5% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Thoughts on these early results ::
QB ::
In my opinion, we see projections a bit slow to catch up with what we’re seeing on the field in a couple spots. The Chargers are absolutely capable of scoring points through the air vs the Dolphins, but there are more risks/holes than these heavy Chargers numbers seem to recognize. The Chargers’ offense is built off its run concepts, and between the injuries on the offensive line and in the backfield, they don’t have a run game at the moment. Herbert is constantly under duress (Jaelan Phillips looks healthy, and Bradley Chubb is still capable of beating backups, so it’s not like this is a soft landing spot from that perspective), and on top of all that, the goal of NFL teams is to win the game they are playing, and “the game the Chargers are playing” is, “beat-up on offense, with the defense still playing well, against a limping Dolphins offense missing their top weapon.” In other words, the Chargers aren’t necessarily looking to attack downfield and score as quickly as possible, and the Dolphins aren’t super likely to push them out of this stance. I think Herbert is absolutely fine this week, but I also think projection systems are likely to overrate him.
The other spot that really stands out is Spencer Rattler, against a Patriots defense that may be shaping up to be one of the better units in the NFL with Christian Gonzalez healthy. They are so big up front, and so tough to get open against, that it’s hard to see a “march the field” offense like the Saints finally putting up their first big game here. Yes, the price is nice; but the case for ceiling is thin.
RB ::
I don’t at all hate the Derrick Henry love from projections, but in his stellar first season with the Ravens, he had 10.6-17.0 DK points eight times and 27.5-33.4 six times, with additional games of 6.7 // 23.9 // 38.9. In those eight games north of 17 DK points, the Ravens were 8-0, with 28+ points scored in all eight games (30+ in seven of eight; 34+ in five of eight). Realistically, “Derrick Henry scoring 20+” is highly likely to mean “the Ravens scoring 30+” (in his one big game this year, the Ravens scored 40 — in a game they should have won vs the Bills). And it’s hard for me to see the Ravens scoring 30. And if you think they will, shouldn’t you play Cooper Rush alongside Henry? (Worth noting: two of my 17 practice builds so far have been Cooper Rush rosters. I don’t know if I’ll actually play him this week, but it’s worth at least keeping Rush + Zay in mind, as sentiment from the DFS public will be low, and Rush posted 18+ in three of seven games last year, with CeeDee Lamb catching 8 // 9 // 10 balls in those games. Probably not a tourney-winning path, but again: at least worth keeping in mind, especially as this may be a week in which QBs aren’t generally popping off.)
The rest of the RB position is pretty much directly in line with what we’ve been drawing up in this space so far this week. It’s somewhat bittersweet to see projections catching up to Javonte Williams, but it had to happen eventually.
WR ::
No major surprises. Projections like Herbert and Rattler, so it makes sense that their primary pass catchers are catching love. Daniel Jones is also in the mix for mid-week projections, so Pittman (and Warren) ride that as well. Puka one of the highest-exposure wideouts in this initial roster set? No surprise there. We’re not super likely to get the monster, tourney-winner in this game unless the Ravens are keeping pace; but most weeks this year, Puka will push north of 20 DK points, which pretty much always makes him a sharp/solid play.
There’s no way Marvin Harrison Jr. will grab north of 15% ownership, right? (I use that number because he showed up on more than 15% of these rosters.) I feel like sentiment on him remains moderately low, but maybe the price tag is cheap enough that people will get there. In any case, I continue to like MHJ as a play this week.
Very little JSN is a bit odd. The Jags’ defense is solid…but they give up points. And if Trevor Lawrence “good” can outweigh Trevor Lawrence “bad,” this will develop into one of the better game environments. I’m not buying what early-week projections are selling here. (JSN, of course, projects well; just not well enough to pop at his price tag.)
TE ::
No major thoughts.
DST ::
Saints v Pats is a no for me. (Pats v Saints, meanwhile…)
Any DST popping vs Tennessee makes sense. I buy that one.
Final thoughts here ::
Rams // Ravens can be a lopsided Rams win, and has an outside shot at being a high-scoring affair all the way around.
Cowboys // Panthers can fall apart on the Panthers’ side, but if they bring their best stuff, this game has meteoric potential (65+ total points). The Panthers have a better defense than people think, but they still aren’t good, and the Cowboys are tremendous, with Dak at the top of his game; and the Panthers’ offense is capable of genuinely high-end play and are taking on a Cowboys defense that is improving, but is still not good. (What the Panthers’ offense makes me think of :: Clay Buchholz was a career number-three pitcher; but in the second start of his career, he threw a no-hitter; and every so often, he would have a game where that elite form showed. The Panthers are basically that type of “number three starter” on an MLB roster: a guy who has number-one stuff, but is inconsistent enough — with enough genuinely bad mixed in — that he’s never more than the three. Those “ace starts” are in there, though, and sometimes they come out.)
Cardinals // Colts almost always plays out with each team scoring in the 20s (with the first wave off this being scores from one team in the high teens or the low 30s). Scenarios where both teams fail or where both teams go off are very low-likelihood, presenting a setup where we likely get some solid scores, and might get a couple elite scores, but where there aren’t a ton of scenarios in which full-on game stacks flood the tops of tourneys.
Seahawks // Jags has elite upside, as noted above. We could obviously (easily) see each team scoring in the 20s; but scenarios where each team scores in the 30s are very much live this week.
Chargers // Dolphins has a broad range of outcomes.
Browns // Steelers would need something really fluky to take off.
Patriots // Saints includes a good defense in the Patriots alongside a Saints team that has scored 20+ offensive points only once (21 vs San Francisco in Week 2).
Titans // Raiders is a pairing of two teams that constantly kill their own drives without any help from the opposing defense. (There is also ceiling here, with downfield passing on both sides. We can’t discount this game. But if it takes off, it will be big plays rather than each team putting together crisp drives that finish with touchdowns.)
Bengals // Packers is a question of whether or not the Bengals can find a way to keep pace.
49ers // Bucs feels like a game that could finish 35-38, and that projections and DFS players will overlook. The Bucs had eight games last year of 30+ points scored(!!!), including four of 37+. They also gave up 30+ in four games. They are natural shootout producers. They already have games of 29 and 38 this year, and have scored at least 20 in every contest so far. It doesn’t look like we’ll get Pearsall back, which is a real shame, and we may not get Jauan, either. But this game absolutely can do what Bucs games can do.
Honestly, a really fun slate.
Thursday, Oct. 9 Thoughts ::
Notable Differences When Changing Settings (cont. from yesterday’s bink machine run)::
I bumped “projected points randomness” to High and bumped the blend of Ceiling Projections to 85%. Here’s what this set is yielding ::
Daniel Jones jumped Herbert as the highest-exposure QB.
Tetairoa McMillan popped above 25% exposure, while MHJ almost cracked 25%, and JSN soared up close to 20%. Calvin Ridley also soared from sub-10% to 24% (a really great snapshot of how we should think about Ridley this week: high-variance, with a high enough ceiling that we should still be keeping him in mind). In these new settings, Olave tumbled to sub-10%, as did Spencer Rattler.
MORE WEEK 6 BETTING UPDATES ::
More betting updates, for anyone interested ::
I like a Broncos alt line ladder.
These are all DK numbers ::
-9.5 is +108 -12.5 is +157 -15.5 is +227 -19.5 is +357 -22.5 is +522
The one thing the Jets can’t do in this spot is turn into a drop-back passing offense, as Fields and their passing attack won’t stand a chance against the Broncos’ pass rush // pass defense.
The Broncos are big-play hunters on offense, and the Jets can be had in this area. If the Broncos take an early multi-score lead, this one could snowball.
I put 0.05 units on each of those.
COMPREHENSIVE WEEK 6 QB THOUGHTS ::
I haven’t really been able to wrap my head around QB this week, so let’s take a stab at that here ::
There are a lot of factors in play here, but broadly speaking, here are a few things I see with this slate ::
1) Lots of solid running back options (and for the third consecutive week, it feels like we have a good shot at seeing a decent number of solid to excellent scores from the position — with price not necessarily the driving factor behind where these scores come from).
2) Pretty broad uncertainty at the wide receiver position, with Ja’Marr Chase, Emeka Egbuka, George Pickens, and Davante Adams priced $6.7k to $7.7k with paths to elite production, but with most scenarios leading to these guys underperforming salary, plus a bunch of guys priced $4.6k to $6.2k with elite ceiling but narrow paths for getting there (Shaheed // Tucker // Ridley // Bourne // Marvin Harrison Jr. // Pittman // Quentin Johnston // Zay Flowers // Tetairoa McMillan // Waddle // Brian Thomas Jr. — just to name a few)…and then, to top off this relative uncertainty at the position, we have the massive certainty of Puka vs Baltimore, and the high-probability prospect of JSN in a likely higher-scoring game vs Jacksonville.
3) The uncertainty at WR obviously spills over to quarterback as well.
All of this has led to me building a bunch of practice builds this week with Bryce Young, two or three running backs I like, Puka + JSN (or Puka + CMC, or JSN + CMC), and “whatever I need to do to fill out the roster from there.” Given everything laid out above, I think this is a massively +EV approach on this particular week. But of course, there are clear opportunities for failure on the Bryce Young side; and also, I try to always make sure I don’t get boxed into one layer of thinking too early in the week. These practice builds have been great for helping me understand the state of the slate, and for helping me see one clear way to build for this week, but let’s look at what else might be out there. A bet on Matthew Stafford is a bet on a very competitive game between the Rams and the Ravens. Given the offensive acumen of the Ravens and the solid play Cooper Rush has provided in the past, I think this is very possible, but it does seem to take a leap of faith to believe the Ravens can push this game enough for a pocket passer like Stafford to pop for a third consecutive elite DFS game. I lean toward No on Stafford for tighter builds; but if I were playing him, I would want to make sure I included a piece or two from the Ravens. (Cooper Rush is viable, but a bet on him is a bet on him posting the first tourney-worthy score of his career, vs a good defense. I’ll probably leave that alone on tighter builds.)
Dak is playing at an MVP level, and while it would seem that a game against the Panthers is not a spot where he would be pushed into elite production, his games against the Giants (26.1 DK points) and Jets (28.3 DK points) felt the same way. He’s one of those plays that is tough to point to on paper, but that is nevertheless viable as a bet on the potential upside of this game environment. We seem to be trending toward Jacoby Brissett under center for Arizona this week, which makes it hard for me to get excited about the upside on Daniel Jones vs a solid defense. Projections love him, but if we take away rushing scores, he has posted scores of 17.5 // 19.8 // 15.8 // 12.4 // 16.7. This offense is not a major “big play hunter,” which means we likely need Jones marching the field to post useful DK numbers; and if Arizona has a harder time keeping pace, we have a much lower likelihood of this style leading to 300+ yards and three scores. Jones, of course, has been a rushing threat in his career, but that’s not how this Indy offense is structured. They’ll sometimes sneak him on the goal line, but I think they are likelier to lean toward JT in the paint at this point, and he has north of two rushing yards in only two games this year. I’m not getting too excited about this one, personally.
It feels awful to “chase” Darnold and Lawrence one week after each quarterback was in a shootout and posted a strong DK score (31.6 for Darnold // 28.2 for Lawrence). To my eye, Lawrence has looked consistently mediocre this year, with a few elite plays mixed in, and he’s taking on a tremendous defense in the Seahawks (albeit one that’s banged up in the secondary). Darnold is taking on a good defense, but he’s been genuinely elite in this offense, and is the standout option between these two this week. I don’t mind going to either, but even with visions of a higher-scoring game here, it’s hard for me to feel confident in either guy. Of course…I’ve been messing around with these Bryce Young practice builds, so apparently “feeling confident” isn’t likely to be a big feature of the QB position this week. Miami has faced the second lowest pass play rate in the NFL, which has lowered QB production against them, but as we explored last week: they have been historically bad against the pass this year, on a per-pass basis. I don’t like the price tag on Justin Herbert ($6.3k), and I may prefer to take my swings on this passing offense through its pass catchers; but there is a case to be made for the Chargers to lean on the pass with their backfield banged up, and if that’s what they do, they’re capable of having success here. How far will that success carry them? With Miami likely to have a difficult time vs this Chargers defense, that’s another open question; but I’m at least not chopping Herbert off my list just yet. Drake Maye has a broad range of outcomes, and in a game I expect the Patriots to control, he could easily throw the ball 30 or fewer times (which would be his fourth time in six games landing in that range); but in terms of “dynamic quarterbacks who can make things happen on their own,” he’s in the mix. Mac Jones has been called on for pass attempt totals of 39 // 41 // 49, and the Bucs naturally funnel opponents toward the air. This is a bet on Kyle Shanahan, as you’re taking a hobbled pocket passer on a deeply injured offense; but in the context of this slate, he absolutely fits.
And given that breakdown of what I see as the viable quarterbacks on the slate…Bryce Young continues to look “not so bad.” It’s tough to tie the results of a weekend to him, as he has 14 or fewer DK points in four of five games this year(!). But with Jalen Coker set to return, and a matchup against Dallas on tap, the pieces are there. Young also has games in his last 11 contests of 23.6 // 26.3 // 27.1 // 36.4. Dallas allows the highest EPA/pass and the third highest completion rate in the league. Looking at StatRankings, they have also allowed 28.72 DK points per game to QBs (three more than the next worst team), with games against Russell Wilson and Justin Fields part of that (as well as an awesome, but inconsistent Caleb Williams, and a QB in Jordan Love who is very good but almost never posts high-end fantasy scores). The Cowboys also run the highest rate of zone coverage in the league (StatRankings), where Bryce Young has completed 64% of his passes (vs 44% vs man!). It’s a bit “paint by numbers,” but continuing to pick on the Cowboys defense really does make sense in the context of what this slate provides. With Bryce Young, you can easily fit two of JSN // Puka // CMC, and you can grab one of the highest QB ceilings on the slate while also having outs in case Bryce Young misses (with those outs being the fact that most QB spots on this slate look unlikely to produce tourney-winners, so if Bryce posts just a passable score, you could still sneak into a tourney win).
I don’t want to tie my entire week’s bankroll to Bryce Young…but I’m closer to doing that than I am to moving off Bryce Young altogether. It’s pretty clear to me at this point that he’ll be one of my staples at QB. The big question now is whether that means he’ll be one of two or three staples (where I would have two or three staples and a few other guys I’m taking low-bankroll-exposure swings on), or if he’ll instead be one of one, where I stamp in one QB across most lineups and mix and match different ideas around that. (In that scenario, I could have anywhere from 50% to 70% Bryce Young, with a broad mix-and-match behind that of guys I have 3% to 8% of my bankroll for the week on.)
WEEK 5 WR/TE USAGE OBSERVATIONS/REFLECTIONS ::
Some Week 5 usage notes ::
Ryan Flournoy played 34/60 snaps for the Cowboys last week, and obviously commanded more targets and schemed usage than Jalen Tolbert. George Pickens is awesome at what he does, but he’s not an all-around receiver, which opens opportunity for another major contributor in this passing attack. Obviously, Jake Ferguson comes first; but there’s a chance the Flournoy usage was not fluky.
Isaiah Likely played 23/43 snaps for the Ravens last week. He posted 8.7 or fewer DK points in 11/16 games last year…but he also had games of 10.5 // 11.9 // 14.8 // 16.3 // 29.1. He’s $2.8k this week.
Darren Waller bumped from 16 snaps in Week 4 to 32 snaps in Week 5. He’s a critical part of this offense without Tyreek Hill, and this snap rate should keep climbing.
It’s a new coaching staff, but Taysom Hill is still here. He played only nine snaps last week in his first action of the year, but he had one pass attempt and six carries on those snaps. Just a reminder :: in eight games last year, he had DK scores of 14.4 // 16.0 // 46.5. HIs likeliest output is 0-10 points, but he has ceiling.
Our guy Chimere Dike played 33/67 snaps for the Titans last week, and was involved in both the short/schemed passing attack and the downfield-shot passing attack. A reminder: he’s a great pairing partner with the Titans’ DST, especially in large-field play.
Also on the Titans, Gunnar Helm played 44/67 snaps and ran 24 pass routes (to 27 for Chig Okonkwo), marking his first game with more than 27 snaps. This was surely due, in part, to a drop in snaps for a hobbled Calvin Ridley; but Helm made a fantastic over-the-shoulder sideline catch at the one-yard-line last week that could continue to earn him playing time // looks.
Chris Godwin has played 58 // 47 snaps the last two weeks. Clearly, he’s not fully back just yet, but it’s at least worth noting that he’s out there quite a bit. In theory, the big game could come.
Our guy Kendrick Bourne played 70/86 snaps last week (augh! — how was that game not on the Main Slate?). Demarcus Robinson also played 73 snaps and saw seven targets. Just a reminder that he posted games of 2-35-2 and 6-94-2 with the Rams last year, and in 2023 — with injuries piling up for LA — he had a five-game stretch with DK scores of 15.5 // 13.6 // 14.7 // 20.2 // 14.2. There’s some hidden ceiling here, and no one will be looking at him at $3.6k. (This is all assuming that Pearsall and Jennings miss again, of course.)
A side note that I just thought of here :: Bourne + Robinson = $8.6k in salary, with 18 targets last week, and a similar target expectation this week. Of course, Bourne will probably be somewhat popular, which makes these player pairings a little less valuable (i.e., if they combine for 30 DK points, but 23 of those come from Bourne, you are sharing that score with others, while taking on a relative dud in the other spot; where these pairings are most valuable is when most of the field is on neither guy, so that no matter how the points shake out, you’re just getting a solid haul of low-owned points, and it doesn’t really matter which of the two is carrying most of the load).
Blake Corum played only six snaps last week after fumbling on his first carry. I don’t think this carries into Week 6, but it’s at least worth noting.
Hunter Henry (52/60 snaps) was the only Patriots skill position player who played more than 37 snaps last week. Welcome back, Josh McDaniels. (And good luck guessing correctly on who — if anyone — will produce in the box score if the Pats have a big game.)
i’ll drop this without an “everyone” tag, in case it’s a bother for you to get an alert and think it’s for dfs, and instead it’s a bet. this one isn’t about to move significantly, so it’s not time-sensitive
also, i should note that none of these are recommendations, so much as i’m just keeping you in the loop on what i’m seeing in case you’re shopping for bets
i dropped four full units on Week 7, Pats -6 at Titans
6 is a big number; but very realistically, the Pats should be 4-1. they dominated the steelers and lost a close game due to 5(!) turnovers. they keep every drive on-schedule, and the titans almost never keep their drives on-schedule, which is a recipe for one team to pull away from another. most importantly, players who play for vrabel tend to love him, and this is vrabel’s return to the team that fired him. the patriots won’t let up in this one if they have their foot on the neck of the titans, which makes -6 a more confident number than it would typically be.
Leverage angles :: kyren on non-puka builds // tory horton on non-jsn builds. these aren’t always as clean as they seem on the surface (i.e., kyren and puka could hit together in a game where the rams are smashing), but a bet on both kyren and horton includes a bet on them scoring touchdowns; and for each touchdown they score, puka/jsn are not scoring touchdowns.
i also like the idea of horton on some puka builds, to essentially capture the full runout if puka turns into ‘the only way to play the pay-up game.’ in other words: ‘part of the reason puka was so valuable on the slate was because he was the only sharp way to pay up. and part of the reason he was the only sharp way to pay up was because horton stole two touchdowns from jsn.’ there’s no direct correlation between the two plays, but they work well together in terms of maximizing the math toward a first-place finish. copy/paste same ideas for kyren/jsn pairings.
THOUGHTS ON “EASY POINTS” ROSTER BUILDING ::
@everyone — I got in a mood/zone for a little while last night of just “building for easy points” on some practice builds.
This started from hunting for different QB setups (Rush, Maye, etc.), and then finding myself back on Bryce Young again. Typically when I have a week like that, I look up at the end of the day on Sunday and chastise myself for not stretching my thinking enough. Basically: if I keep coming back to a setup/approach that has plenty of paths to the downside, but I don’t stretch far enough in other directions because I just can’t figure out what’s the best “other direction” to go in, I come to realize when it’s all said and done that “stretching into other directions” was exactly what I should have been doing.
So then I put Jordan Love onto a roster I had already mostly built, that I already liked, in order to try something different. And I started thinking: “The thing about Love is, we can easily see how he fails to get a tourney-winner; but we also know it’s not unusual to see high-end, touchdown-heavy games in blowout wins; and if we strip off price tags, it’s true that Love is pretty easy points. By “easy points,” I mean one portion of the equation is already solved for us: his offense is almost certainly going to score several touchdowns in this spot. It’s not likely to be a hard-fought battle for production from this offense. So while we don’t know for sure that Love will collect the bulk of those points, we do know there’s a high likelihood of these points being available without much struggle.
Which led me down a path of thinking :: where are some of the “easiest points” on the slate?
Here’s a list, from top-of-pricing down, rolling through positions:
CMC :: pass game involvement and importance to his offense in an important game
Jacobs :: attachment to Packers offense vs Cincy
Javonte :: central to everything being done by a good offense
Rachaad :: pass game involvement and importance to his offense in an important game
Dowdle :: Chuba established this role in Week 2 of last season; after that, he went on to score 15+ DK points in nine of 13 games, with 20.7+ in six of 13. (Even Miles Sanders went for 25+ when he took over this role for a couple weeks.) Dowdle has this role to himself, in a good matchup, against his old team.
Puka :: central to everything being done by a good offense
JSN :: central to everything being done by a good offense
TMac :: a tier lower than all the guys listed so far, but a tier above others priced around him; no questions around his role and consistent usage in this offense, in a matchup against a beatable pass defense that won’t be doing anything dramatic or too specific to try to “take him away”
49er :: in three of their last four games, the 49ers have had a wideout see double-digit targets — and it was clear each week who that wideout would be: Jauan when he played // Pearsall when Jauan was out // Bourne when both were out. Bourne and Jauan cost $5k and $4.8k, respectively, and in an ideal world, we don’t get news here until inactives, which would create little to no ownership on these guys. The angle would be to put Bourne onto rosters, and pivot down to Jauan if he’s active. (Though of course, more than likely, we’ll end up getting word on this from the team on Saturday, or from Schefter on Saturday night.)
Rashid Shaheed :: in terms of points-per-dollar, Shaheed’s floor this year has been higher than TMac’s, and we know he has a high ceiling (games this year of ~3.5x and ~5.5x), taking on a man-heavy defense, where his upside is highest — all with the added bonus of being leverage off a likely popular player in Olave. (Olave is easy points with fewer paths to slate-tilting ceiling, similar to Keenan Allen on this slate. It is worth noting, of course, that “fewer paths to ceiling” does not mean these guys can’t hit, so while they aren’t priorities for me, they are solid plays on a roster where you feel like you’re already taking on enough risk, and you just want one spot where you’re locking in what you feel to be pretty safe points.)
Jake Ferguson :: literally second in the NFL in receptions, taking on a Panthers defense that has had a rough go of it against tight ends
Tyler Warren :: the same floor and consistency so far this season as Olave, but with a higher ceiling, in a better offense, at a thinner position, at a lower price tag
David Njoku :: at the price tag, you can’t do much better.
COWBOYS & PANTHERS BLOCKS OBSERVATIONS ::
This Cowboys // Panthers game is one where I keep mentioning the fact that I’ll have exposure to both sides, but I haven’t actually built any Dak rosters yet. (To be clear: If I set a plan tonight, for example, of 20% of my bankroll allocated to Dak, I’ll have 20% of my bankroll allocated to Dak, but I’ll be purely shopping through Bink Machine rosters for ideas and/or builds. Which is also fine — but I’m just illustrating that I’ve been working with the expectation over the last couple days that I’ll have something like 20% to 25% Dak, and yet, I have not built any Dak rosters.)
Which is pretty crazy, because…
In three of the Cowboys’ last four games, Dak + Javonte + Pickens + Ferguson have gone for combined salary multipliers of:
3.64x 3.83x 4.26x
On top of this, the Panthers trio of Bryce + RB1 + TMac has gone for 3.8x in two of four (without TMac contributing more than ~3x in any game this year), and the duo of Bryce + RB1 has gone for 4.25x and 4.66x in two of five games to start this year, after going for 5.84x and 5.91x in two of three games to end last year.
Basically, what we’ve talked about all week ::
There are clear paths to the downside here. But Dak + 2 or 3 + one or two Panthers and Bryce + 1 or 2 + 2 or 3 Cowboys is a very live way to build for this week’s slate.
No big revelation or anything, of course; but just some numbers to back up what we’ve been seeing/saying.
sat. night ROSTER-BUILDING ANGLES INVOLVING QBs ::
My highest-roi rosters on the weekend all have the same quarterback.
The top three of these rosters are hand-builds from tonight — all variations off a roster that showed up for me in the bink machine in my very first build of the week.
The second image shows the simulated runout for the highest-roi option of the bunch.
That quarterback?
Justin Herbert.
The stack?
Herbert + all three of his wideouts + Waddle.
The thinking?
The ceiling is there. We’ve said that all week, and have then painted the picture to the downside.
But what if it plays to the upside?
And what if no one is on it?
I’m still messing around with things, but I have not yet found another quarterback setup that’s really standing out to me on this slate.
A guy I’ve continued circling around over the last 24 hours is Spencer Rattler. Before I went to bed last night, he was included on a list of QBs I was strongly considering making my “other four/five guys” (the expected four/five away from Dak and Bryce).
That list was Maye // Mac // Darnold // Rattler.
Today, while prepping for the Winner Circle pod, I made a new list. That list was Love // Stafford // Rattler // Maye.
Notice, of course, that Rattler was on both. As I talked about in the pod, there’s a good chance Rattler is hitting (salary-considered) if Maye is hitting, and he creates more flexibility on a tight week for pricing and comes with a more condensed set of targets (who are also cheaper). Like Herbert, Rattler has popped for me in the Sims and the Bink Machine this week, but I have overridden that with my ball-knowing (i.e., I really like this New Orleans offense — I’ve been saying it since Week 1 — but they’re not explosive, and I think the Patriots have a strong defense). But as I mentioned in Winner Circle tonight, I’ve been treating the Patriots like a really good team in the betting streets, and yet, I took them on the moneyline in this one, as I didn’t feel confident in the fairly tight spread. I think the Saints will keep this a competitive game throughout. They’re less talented, but they are well-prepared and well-coached. Outside of that Seattle game — which went off the rails very early, and tilted the game the wrong way — they have been consistently competitive against good teams. And if we all think the Pats are scoring points here…doesn’t that stand to reason the Saints could be scoring points as well?
Even when I went to spend some time hand-building this one tonight, I couldn’t actually bring myself to save the double-stack version I was building, and I instead shifted to Rattler // Shaheed (which the Sims, unsurprisingly were not as fond of).
I do think Rattler has to have an outlier game for this stack to work. But I think it could be in play as a down-the-line option for me, where I wouldn’t have as much bankroll on it as the Herbert one (which I can really get behind), but where I could have 5% to 10% on it.
With all that, I’m currently playing around with the idea of ::
Herbert as my high-stakes SE options.
A mix and match of lots of variations of the Dak // Bryce stuff across most of my other SE/3-Max.
A slice saved for Rattler.
And nothing else.
Still in consideration for me to squeeze in some allocation ::
Baker Mac Darnold Lawrence Love Maye
Sunday, Oct. 12 Updates ::
CHARGERS WR THOUGHTS IN LIGHT OF QJ INJURY NEWS ::
I just saw the QJ news (“trending toward missing,” per Fowler). This will elevate ownership on Ladd and Keenan, but I don’t think the stack will be any more popular than it would have been. And Tre Harris works as a final piece, if you want to really swing for the fences. Net neutral for this setup, really. I would have preferred QJ playing, as ownership on the full stack would have been low enough for really nice ROI already, and no guesswork would have been required. But with QJ out, the bet on a condensed target tree (elevating the chances of a had-to-have-it game) or the bet on Tre Harris getting schemed work as the third piece still kicks in enough juice to the ROI on this one that I don’t think it truly changes much. It just makes it a decision between a couple ways to play it, which could kick this down to the same bankroll allocation as before, but now spread across different builds instead of concentrated on one (with one of my Dak // Bryce rosters moving up to a concentrated-bet range instead).
I don’t see any projections spitting out Tre Harris stuff yet, but I’d put his ceiling at around 17 DK points (5-60-1), and I’d put his general/expected production at around 4-8 DK points. I think he’ll play ~60% of the snaps and have a couple plays designed for him (probably a downfield shot and a couple slants or quick throws where he’s the first read). To me, he’s not a guy who is going to turn into a special NFL player, so I see him like a guy who should be priced in the ultra-low-$4ks; i.e., underpriced, but still should be priced in a range where low floors and volatility are to be expected. So I think the primary way to build this is with just the two wideouts. But I’ll probably run this out with Harris on a build as well.
Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
MACRO SLATE VIEW::
Like last week, this slate has very little certainty. And yet, there are 10 players expected to be on 20% or more of rosters in play this weekend. Not only that, but the certainty we do have is more fragile than a typical slate. We also have a situation where the field appears to be taking binary stances on individual players as opposed to focusing on team stacks or game environments, as evidenced by the completely spread-out nature of the quarterback ownership, and how that ownership compares to the composite skill position ownership of the teams on the slate.
Now take all of that within the bigger context of the slate, which sees the first real slate of the season where pricing is tight, no true game environment that stands out above the others, and no true game environment we can entirely write off. The slate is wide open. Those two pieces work together to create a slate in which a solid chunk of the field will be playing with suboptimal tendencies, taking on more variance than is required. As such, I’ll be looking for ways to manage variance away from field tendencies as the primary means of generating leverage on the Week 6 main slate.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
PUKA NACUA
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Puka ranks first in XFP/G at the wide receiver position while seeing double-digit targets in four of five games and going over 100 yards in three of five games. That said, he has exactly zero end zone targets (Davante Adams has nine) and remains highly unlikely to score multiple touchdowns, leaving his true ceiling somewhat lacking when compared to his salary. Slightly more fragile than the field likely realizes here, although he is the top projected median on the slate (I’ll be playing him). It is at least worth noting that Davante Adams ranks third in the league in XFP/G while being targeted nine times in the end zone this season.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. CMC leads the league in XFP/G at the running back position while seeing seven or more targets in every game this season, with nine or more in four of five. He is playing a Buccaneers team that is going to bring the blitz (fourth-ranked 34.4%) and sees a ridiculous 0.42 TPRR when the 49ers are blitzed this season. His biggest blemishes are zero team rushing scores and 3.1 yards per carry or fewer in four of five games this season. The Buccaneers are also a clear pass-funnel matchup. More fragile than the field likely realizes here.
JAVONTE WILLIAMS
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. If you read the write-up of this Cowboys game earlier this week, or if you tuned in to Searching for Ceiling on Friday, you likely heard me bring out a dope stat pull – Javonte Williams is currently averaging more yards per carry than any running back in Cowboys history, dating back to 1960. He is also averaging 27.45 DK points per game in the Cowboys two wins this season (24.63 per game if you include their tie against the Packers) and are favored by three points in the game with the highest game total this week. Just for comparison’s sake, really quick (don’t hate me), the 24.63 DK points per game that Williams averages in three wins or ties this season is more than CMC has scored in three of five games. Little food for thought.
CHRIS OLAVE
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Olave ranks second in XFP/G (19.4) but has finished below that mark in every single game this season. He has finished between 54 and 59 yards in all four games in which he has seen double-digit targets this season. Sometimes, it is best to look beyond a single metric to define solid on-paper fantasy plays. FRAGILE.
RACHAAD WHITE
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Buccaneers have struggled to run the football this season, with the trio of Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker averaging just 3.49 yards per carry. No back on the team has an explosive run rate higher than 2.8%. White is coming off an 18-opportunity game where he scored twice, with the backfield now accounting for five total touchdowns through five games. Did someone say fragile?
TREY MCBRIDE
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jake Ferguson has scored more points than McBride’s top performance this season in four of five games. What are we doing here?
KYREN WILLIAMS
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. We now have a three-year sample of Kyren Williams with a well below average explosive run rate in this Los Angeles offense. That means he remains highly unlikely to pierce the 100-yard threshold due to the heavy PROE values of the Rams this year, meaning he likely requires elite pass volume or three or more touchdowns to return a GPP score you could not make up elsewhere. He saw 10 targets and caught two touchdowns to do that last week. Are we betting on that happening again at high ownership? But, Hilow, he’s leverage against Puka Nacua. I would just call him a poor on-paper play, to be honest. If the Rams are trouncing the Ravens, we’re probably just seeing more Blake Corum. If the Ravens are keeping pace, we’re probably just seeing more Puka Nacua (the matchup is better for him). Frah-geel-eh.
RICO DOWDLE
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Panthers have remained one of the more run-heavy teams in the league, regardless of game script this season, challenged only by the Browns for that honor. Considering the pace-up nature of this matchup between two teams in the top seven in pace of play, and considering the continued absence of Chuba Hubbard, it’s safe to pencil Dowdle in for another 18-22 opportunities as a floor. The bigger problem for me is the clear pass-funnel matchup against a zone-heavy defense, knowing Bryce Young has gone full pumpkin against zone this season, which lowers the chances of sustained drives, which lowers the chances of touchdowns for Dowdle. I have my doubts about this Panthers team this week, in all honesty.
JOSH JACOBS
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacobs is averaging 3.31 yards per carry with a putrid 3.8% explosive run rate and larger than perception 51.3% stuff rate this season. His saving grace is that he has an outside shot at a three-touchdown game here. That hefty red zone role has kept his XFP/G at third in the league (18.7). Extremely fragile.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. On a per-target basis, JSN is the only receiver in the league that rivals Puka Nacua. The problem is the Seahawks are averaging the second fewest pass attempts per game this year (27.4), meaning he all but requires the game reaching “oh shit” phase to put up a score you could not win without at his increasing salary. Go re-read my write-up of this game and see how excited I was about this game environment taking off (spoiler: I wasn’t). He’s a great bet to get you a 3x multiplier, but extremely fragile for more.
Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish
Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data fromStatRankings.com.
Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate.
QB
Sam Darnold was the hero of the Week 5 edition of One Week Stats, going off for 30 DK points at just 3% ownership, leading to a take down of the “Spin-Move,” Single-Entry GPP on DK (despite the dud from Chris Godwin, sorry about that one)! Darnold won’t be under the radar this week, but regardless, he’s back in my player pool. He’s posted a 75% completion rate and a 114.8 QB Rating against zone coverage. Jacksonville runs zone on 69.6% of defensive snaps (5th-highest rate) and just allowed Patrick Mahomes to complete 81% of his passes against their zone looks. Darnold also ranks 1st in Adjusted Net Yards per attempt (ANY/A) over his last three games, averaging over 10.0 ANY/A. JAX has allowed the 5th-highest percentage of total yards to come through the air and is giving up 22 fantasy points per game to QBs.
Last week, LAC tried to run it after getting an early lead (45% neutral pass rate). They also operated slowly (5th-slowest team in neutral), which led to just twenty-nine Justin Herbert dropbacks (after averaging 44 in his previous two games). Even with that, LAC still ranks 2nd in neutral pass rate (63%) and 5th in fastest neutral pace. LAC lost Omarian Hampton (after already losing Najee Harris) and has now dropped two straight after starting 3-0. All of this points to them leaning heavily on their franchise QB in a strong matchup against MIA’s secondary. MIA allowed only 14 FP to Bryce Young last week (while giving up 200+ rushing yards to Rico Dowdle), yet still ranks 3rd in FP allowed to QBs (69% completion rate allowed, 31st). Expect quick releases and a lot of short completions to his WRs with LAC’s offensive line issues, which could give us an opportunity in the prop market with his attempts and completions. You can also bet Quentin Johnston & Ladd McConkey OVER 4.5 receptions, which correlates well with Herbert props. MIA has allowed a 106 passer rating in coverage this season.
With Herbert projected to be the highest-owned QB on the slate, one way to gain leverage in (large-field) GPPs could be through Tua Tagovailoa. LAC is not a great matchup in terms of pressure rate (11th best pressure %), but some stats offer hope. They allowed the highest explosive play rate in Week 5, giving up a 20+ yard pass or 10+ yard run on 18.5% of plays (8.8 YPA allowed). Over the last three games, they’ve allowed the 8th-highest explosive play rate overall. If we expect Herbert and LAC to score points through the air, this could easily turn into a positive game environment, boosting Tua’s ceiling. Tua is averaging 19.1 FP/g at home this season and 18 DK points/pg in his last 18 home starts (263 passing yards, 1.9 TDs). He’s also easy to stack with Tyreek Hill on IR; the targets have become very condensed.
Over SF’s last seven games, Brock Purdy (24.5 FP) and Mac Jones (20.1 FP) have averaged 23 FP/g. SF can’t run the ball this season (31st YPC, 32nd in rush yards %), which has them 1st in pass attempts per game. In addition, TB has the 5th highest pass yards % against and allows the 3rd most FP to QBs (last 3). TB plays a high rate of zone coverage (63%, while allowing a 100 passer rating and 5 TD passes in zone/2nd), and Jones has completed 68% of his attempts for 582 passing yards against zone (last three games).
I will also be playing the other side of this game with Baker Mayfield, who continues to be underowned in DFS (7% projection) despite being the QB5 for the season after finishing as the QB5 in 2024. With Bucky Irving out again, it should be the Baker show again (63% neutral pass rate in week 5 after 52% weeks 1-4). Mayfield has thrived against zone coverage (2nd in passer rating vs. zone) and SF plays a high rate of zone (68%, 8th), while allowing opponents a 7.05 YPA (10th).
CIN has allowed 149.7 rushing yards on 32 attempts per game in Jake Browning’s three starts (35 FP/g to RBs, 1st). Opponents don’t respect the CIN offense, so they know they can pound this Bengals rush defense (50% rush rate against, 3rd over the last three games). Green Bay has averaged 30.7 rush attempts in their last three games, even while playing in a shootout before their bye, consistent with their 30 attempts per game average in 2024. Josh Jacobs (2nd in RB touch share) has averaged 19.1 FP/g in 14 starts with Green Bay as a favorite, 5 FP/g better than in games as an underdog. He is my RB1 on the slate with price factored in.
TEN has allowed the highest % of rush TDs to be scored against them, which has them 32nd in FP/g allowed to backs (35.87 FP/g over their last three games). Geno Smith leads the league with 9 INTs, so I would expect LV to ride their first round rookie RB as a home favorite. This is a similar setup to the Bears game, where Ashton Jeanty racked up 23 touches for 153 total yards and 3 TDs. TEN has allowed a league-worst two rushing TDs per game this season (Jeanty has 100% of LV rush attempts inside the 10-yard line). This is such a great spot for Jeanty, you would expect him to be the chalk, but with so many RBs to play, his ownership should stay below 15%.
Quinshon Judkins is being used as a true RB1, averaging 20.6 rush attempts and handling 40% of his team’s total touches since taking over as the starter, 3rd behind only CMC and Jacobs. He’s recorded 162 yards after contact (2nd over that three game span) while averaging 18.3 DK points per game, despite having 70 yards and a TD wiped out by penalties. Like Jeanty, this kind of usage and price would normally lead to high-end chalk, but with so many backs on the slate, he should come in around 10–12%.
WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should come in at roughly half the ownership of Puka Nacua and offers a significant $1.1K discount. He trails Nacua by just 0.2 FP/route run (0.79 FP/route run). For context, Nacua led this stat in 2024 at 0.75 FP/route run. He is also first in Yards per Target among all players with 15+ targets. JAX plays zone coverage at the 5th-highest rate, and JSN thrives against it, averaging 2.35 yards of separation (3rd). With SEA allowing the 2nd-highest and JAX the 5th-highest percentage of passing yards, JSN should be in line for another 20+ FP performance (four of his last five games with 20+ FP).
Calvin Ridley is the poster boy for StatRankings’ new metric, UnCatchable Air Yards (aka “Prayer Yards”) after leading the league with 947 Prayer Yards last season. Things are trending in the right direction for the enigmatic Ridley, who opened the season averaging 2.5–35–0 over his first four games. For one, he now ranks third in Prayer Yards on his own team, behind Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. He still wasn’t ultra-efficient (50% catch rate), but he produced 131 yards on 13 yards per target. Ridley remains under $5K on DraftKings, putting him in that WR3 sweet spot for GPP lineups where you should be hunting for upside/high-ceiling plays. Ridley sees 0.32 targets per route run vs. zone coverage, compared to 0.18 vs. man. That sets up well this week, as LV plays the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage. Ridley moves all over the formation, running 30% of his routes from LWR, which will put him in front of CB Kyu Blu Kelly, who is allowing 14.7 FP/g in coverage over his last three games (2nd most). He allows 2 FP per target in coverage.
Calvin Austin III has been operating as the WR2 for PIT, 2nd in route participation and target share, and while that has not mattered for fantasy (9 FP/g), it could matter for DK Metcalf, who simply needs more targets. (5.5 targets per game). Metcalf is averaging 2.69 Fantasy Points per target, which is elite per-target production (for context, JSN averages 2.31 FP/target). CLE remains tough against the run (2nd fewest FP allowed to RBs), which has led to 69.5% of yards to be gained via the pass. They allow 33 FP/g to WRs after a season-high 44 to MIN last week. Given that DK is the only viable NFL WR on the team, he has a chance to see more volume, which is all we need at his low price and projected ownership.
Ryan Flournoy had a 68% route participation last week with CeeDee Lamb & Kevonte Turpin out, running 40% of his routes from the slot. Per Player Profiler, Flournoy ranked 14th in this draft class in their “Athleticism Score,” so this is not your typical replacement player. He had a 31% true target share, posting 6-114-0 (9 targets) along with two rush attempts. Considering DAL controlled this game, Dak Prescott only dropped back 29 times, 11 below his season average. If CAR can get a lead or at least keep it close, we should see Dak closer to the 35-38 attempts range, which can only be good for the $3.6K Flournoy.
TE
Tucker Kraft (2nd in yards per target among all TEs) leads GB pass catchers with a 90% route participation, though that’s only translated to about 5 targets per game (GB averages 30 passes per game). With Jayden Reed still out, targets should stay more condensed, giving Kraft a clearer path to volume in one of the best matchups on the slate. He’s averaged 8.6 FP/g across three low-output games (non-consecutive) but also flashed a 27.4-point ceiling earlier this season. Despite running into (very) bad TD luck in his most recent game vs DAL, Kraft still ranks as the TE3 in FP/g on this main slate. With a projected 14-point spread that could push GB into a lower pass rate (for an already low-volume passing team), he ranks fourth among TEs this week. That said, he carries one of the biggest ceilings for GPPs on the slate. The Bengals don’t seem to care about tight ends. They allowed the second most FP to TEs in 2023, first in 2024, and are back at it in 2025, giving up a league-high 18.56 FP/g to the position on DraftKings.
I like to hunt for touchdowns on (.5 PPR) FanDuel, which has me looking at Hunter Henry this week in my Drake Maye stacks. Henry has five targets inside the 10-yard line, which puts him in elite company, second behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian McCaffrey, and Davante Adams. All other New England pass catchers have a combined five targets inside the 10-yard line. The Saints got shredded by Giants TEs last week and now rank 5th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Henry leads the team in Route Participation, is second in target share (behind Stefon Diggs), and is tied with the WR lead in first-read target share. Disclosure: I am also playing him on DraftKings (less expensive in terms of % of cap), but wanted to emphasize the red-zone rate and how that applies to FanDuel.
By The Numbers
By Bearklaw
By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide. Questions or feedback? Reach out on Discord: @bearklaw0
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
Sunday Morning Update
Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K
Bryce Young Rico Dowdle Javonte Williams Tetairoa McMillan Quentin Johnston Jaylen Waddle David Njoku Chimere Dike Titans
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Christian McCaffrey
I loved this stat from Lord Reebs (Sharp Football Analysis) :: From receiving stats alone, CMC is the WR6 on the season. He’s also a running back who gets almost all the carries for his team. As with Puka (below), we’re rostering CMC more for the consistent/sold haul of points than for the “had to have it” ceiling, but especially on thin slates like this one, there is plenty of value in just taking the locked-in points and figuring things out from there. In most scenarios, CMC isn’t scoring 35+ here; but also, in most scenarios, he’s not dropping below the low-20s (and of course, those monster scores are within his range of outcomes), making him a guy I’m not forcing, but who I’m also looking to play where I can.
Puka Nacua
We’ve been saying for weeks that Puka is the CMC of wide receivers; so on a week where I’m moving CMC up to the Blue Chip section, it makes sense for Puka to make his way up here as well. By the strictest definitions of these categories, both these guys are actually more Light Blue than True Blue Chip (and this week’s Light Blues are more Tier 1a Bonus, while the Tier 1 bonus guys at the bottom of the Player Grid are more Tier 1b Bonus); but sometimes, it’s just nice to have guys listed in the Blue Chip section, which has me putting both these guys up here this week. As I said with CMC: we’re rostering Puka more for the consistent/solid haul of points than for the “had to have it” ceiling, but especially on thin slates like this one, there is plenty of value in just taking the locked-in points and figuring things out from there. In most scenarios (with the Rams expected to control this game), Puka isn’t scoring 35+ here; but also, in most scenarios, he’s not dropping below the low-20s (and of course, those monster scores are within his range of outcomes), making him a guy I’m not forcing, but who I’m also looking to play where I can.
JSN has basically been the same wide receiver as Puka Nacua this year on a per-route // per-target basis…with the difference being that JSN doesn’t see nearly the volume Puka sees, as the Seahawks are a relatively low-volume, run-based offense. In order for us to get the highest-end runout on JSN, we would ideally see his highest-end runout for volume…and the clearest way for that to happen is for the Jaguars to be scoring points and pushing the Seahawks to a more aggressive approach. Obviously, Darnold works with JSN as well (and I may have some of that in SE/3-Max this week), but because of the higher likelihood of volume from the Jags and the greater chance of rushing contributions from Lawrence, I like the idea of this pairing this week.
How It Works:
I would add a Trevor Lawrence stacking partner on almost every Lawrence roster, of course; but the core idea here is, “Playing JSN is good; playing JSN with a cheap QB from this game is even better.”
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
Because of the nature of the routes Diggs runs, he will typically need volume in order to return tourney-viable scores; and because of the way the Patriots run their offense, “Diggs seeing volume” is often going to mean “Drake Maye having opportunities to post a big game.” While Maye disappointed in the box score last week amidst a standout outing from Diggs, it’s comfortable to consider that an outlier, and to run a rule that says, “On 100% of Diggs rosters, play Drake Maye.”
While we’re on the topic of Drake Maye…
He has games this year of 15 and 17 DK points from rushing and touchdowns, so if he adds eight to 10 points from passing yards (200 to 250 yards) to a game like that, he lands a really nice score. Projections like him more than I do this week, which means he’ll be more popular than I’d like. The Saints are an offense that almost exclusively aims to march the field, while the Patriots are not big-play hunters. (As with any team, the Patriots take a few shots; but they are mostly hunting for mini-chunks, working short-area plays with easy upside for 8-12 yards and throwing to the intermediate areas of the field. With the Saints playing a style that naturally makes shootouts more difficult and the Patriots not hunting chunks as a regular part of the rhythm of their offense, Maye will have a harder time reaching 300+ yards, and will therefore have a harder time putting up a truly monster score.) All that said, 23-28 points is very much within range here, and if we’re asking “What wins the slate if Bryce Young disappoints,” this could very much be enough to be it.
The structure of this rule :: “On 100% of rosters with the locked player (Diggs), include a minimum of two players (Diggs and Maye) from this pool.”
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Bryce Young || Dak Prescott || >>—<< || Baker Mayfield || Mac Jones || Drake Maye || Justin Herbert || Trevor Lawrence
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
Mike’s DK Player Grid
By MJohnson86
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!
The Core ::
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:
Running Back ::
Christian McCaffrey – Through 5 weeks, CMC is AVERAGING over 15 PPR points per game as a receiver *without* touchdowns. Now he plays the Bucs, who force teams to pass at a high rate. This workload is insane and he is running cold on TDs this year. If that ever regresses, he’s going to drop a 40-burger on someone.
Josh Jacobs – The matchup is elite and Green Bay is expected to score around four touchdowns in this spot. Green Bay is coming off a bye and looking to get back to their roots. 100+ rushing yards and multiple touchdowns is squarely in play.
Kyren Williams – The biggest “question” around Kyren this week is whether the Rams get out to such a big lead that his volume gets undercut. The matchup and everything else are as good as it gets.
Ashton Jeanty – This is likely the best spot Jeanty is going to have all season, with a ripe matchup and his team expected to play from ahead. He is the clear offensive centerpiece for the Raiders.
Jonathan Taylor – 30+ points in three of five games this season makes him impossible to ignore. Elite talent, workload, and offensive environment.
Rachaad White – White’s salary has bumped up, but given his pass-catching abilities and the way this game environment sets up, he is still a relative value for Week 6.
Rico Dowdle – He isn’t the lock he was last week as his price has risen significantly, but this is a terrific spot nonetheless, and Rico is going to touch the ball 20+ times in an outstanding matchup.
Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
Pick the Game, Win the Prize
This feels like a bet-on-game-environment week. I’ll be correlating my rosters even more than usual — the goal is simple: identify two games that go over their Vegas totals, then build lineups that tell that story through every piece.
Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.
*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning.Â
Offset the Chalk
We’re always looking to spin the field’s favorite pieces into something a little more interesting — ideally something that tells a story the rest of the lobby isn’t writing.
Trey McBride / Josh Downs (Alec Pierce)
McBride’s chalk is deserved, but this is where we can get a little weird. Downs makes sense in correlated builds, while Pierce is the galaxy-brain version — fewer targets but only needs a couple to smash. Most Daniel Jones rosters will have Michael Pittman and/or Tyler Warren. Adding one or both of these cheaper contrarian options will be enough to differentiate, so you won’t feel like a donkey playing the chalk elsewhere.
McBride (17%), Downs (3.8%), Pierce (1.5%)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba / Travis Etienne Jr.
Bet on this game environment taking off, with targets and touchdowns tilting in this direction.
Smith-Njigba (22%), Etienne (7.4%)
Puka Nacua / Zay Flowers
Cooper Rush gets a bad rap, but he contributed to some decent WR outings in his Dallas days. Flowers may get squeezed further if his Q tag lingers into Sunday. He functions as a YAC-heavy safety valve, and if Puka’s going to pay off his inflated tag, he probably needs to play the entire game — meaning the Ravens likely found success.
Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.
Picking Games
Week 6 has five games that pique my interest:
DAL/CAR (49.5)
NE/NO (46)
SEA/JAC (47.5)
ARI/IND (47)
TB/SF (47.5)
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
Cowboys @ Panthers
The Cowboys have become “that team” whose games we want to target every week for DFS. They have a bad defense, a good offense, and they aren’t afraid to sling the rock. Those are the typical ingredients (think last year’s Bengals) for a team to be a shootout factory. This marks the third week in a row the Cowboys game has been my favorite game environment, and that probably won’t change much throughout the season. Bryce Young ($4,800) is way too cheap for being a QB in the most desirable game environment. He’s only paid off once this season (26 DK points in Week 2), but that’s why he is so affordable. With value tighter than it was through the first five weeks, there is a good chance I’m going to land on Young as my main lineup QB. I want to stack this game, and even though I like Dak Prescott ($6,500), their price gap is too large for QBs playing in the same game. Rico Dowdle ($5,800) was kind to me last week, as was Jake Ferguson ($5,300). They both saw price increases, but I’m not afraid to go back to the well. Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000) is underperforming his usage, but that could change in a pristine matchup. I’m currently looking at Young + Dowdle + Tet + Ferguson as the basis for my main lineup.
Patriots @ Saints
The Saints are another team whose game environments are a weekly target, but unlike the Cowboys, they aren’t a good offense. That doesn’t matter when you are always losing and running a million plays. The Saints are a bad offense that plays fast and has poor efficiency numbers. That is totally fine for fantasy purposes and will cause their opponents to consistently get a boost in this matchup. Drake Maye ($5,900) is starting to get more expensive, but he’s priced affordably and has been one of the best fantasy QBs. He’s significantly more expensive than Young, but in a vacuum, I’d rather play Maye. Stefon Diggs ($5,800) has come on the last two weeks, and if he keeps producing like this, his price isn’t going to stay below $6,000 for long. This might be your last chance to roster him at a discount. Hunter Henry ($4,300) is priced up because of his early-season performance, but he hasn’t been a big factor since Diggs emerged in Week 4. TreVeyon Henderson ($5,200) has a chance to see more work with Antonio Gibson hitting the IR and Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,300) struggling to hold onto the football. Henderson is a “play it before you see it” guy who is going to break out one of these weeks. My favorite way to stack this game is Maye + Henderson + Diggs + Olave. That stack will likely be the basis of one of my tighter builds.
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
Week 6Topics
1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other
2. Block Parties Part II
3. Value Stacks
4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”
1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?
The Question ::
A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?”
The Answers ::
JM >>
For the third consecutive week, running back feels like a really strong/stacked position. The last two weeks, I looked at running back and thought, “I don’t have to overthink this. If I play my favorites from this pool and mix and match the other strong options, I’ll end up in great shape at the position.” Both weeks, that turned out to be the case, and it (obviously) won’t surprise me if we see that again.
Also similar to last week, we have 10 games, we have a high-upside (but highly fragile) quarterback value taking on the Cowboys, and when we ask the question of, “If this fragile QB performs to the downside, who ends up winning the slate instead?” we find that there is really no clear answer.
Where this slate starts to look different from last week (though not a dramatic difference) is that those “other QB spots to consider” feel even thinner this week than what we had in Week 6 (and this, of course, trickles down to wide receiver, where it’s hard to establish much confidence on players across the board).
In short (a rarity), what makes this slate unique, to me, is how similar it looks to something we’ve already seen. This feels like Week 5 with tighter pricing at running back and the volume turned up on QB/WR uncertainty. Let the games begin.
Hilow >>
This is the first slate this season where pricing feels tight, and where decisions feel like they need to be made. We also have more games with relatively high game totals, but also a general feeling of a lack of certainty. That is likely to lead to the field placing increased emphasis on the few spots of more perceived certainty (Puka Nacua, Christian McCaffrey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cowboys), while feeling like “we have to account for these spots.” But again, there are five games with a game total between 46.0 and 49.5 points this week, and those places of perceived certainty account for only three of those games. All of that to say, I think there are numerous paths to success on this slate and the field is clearly indicating the path they are likeliest to take.
Xandamere >>
As Hilow mentioned, pricing is starting to feel tighter. There are still value options, as always, but it’s harder to build a roster that feels really strong top to bottom compared to the first five weeks of the season. We’re also lacking (or at least I feel we’re lacking) one clear “best game environment,” as there are 3 games with game totals of 47+ and close spreads, and a couple of other spots with very high individual team totals.
Hilow and I both talk a lot about the best slates are slates where there are likely a lot of different ways to win, but where the field (or a large chunk of the field) is fixated on just one of those ways.
Mike >>
I think that on DraftKings this is a “two tight end week”, based on the way the salary structure and slate dynamics are shaping up. There are just a lot of tight ends who are priced in a way that their usage and ceiling outcomes far exceed their peers at other positions at the same price points. Additionally, with Puka, CMC, and JT all on the slate and pricing being tighter with those studs being more difficult to fit into lineups the value that those tight ends open up for your roster has extra value.
2. Block Parties Part II
The Question ::
Last week one of our questions discussed playing two players from the same team without their quarterback and how that was an especially appealing strategy on last week’s smaller 10-game slate as it allows you to make a concentrated bet on a team without having to necessarily build around the quarterback. The results that followed were terrific, as we saw several of these pairings become skeleton keys to the slate::
Bucs (White/Egbuka) – 57.4 points for $11.6k
Cowboys (Javonte/Ferguson) – 53.8 points for $11k
Panthers (Dowdle/Tet) – 48.7 points for $11k
Jets (Breece/Wilson) – 40.6 points for $11.7k
Commanders (JCM/Deebo) – 54.6 points for $11.4k
We have another smaller (10-game) slate this week, so let’s go back to the well. What (if any) player blocks of two non-quarterbacks are you most interested in this week?
Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week
We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
Willing To Lose
By Larejo123
Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Last week is not this week.
Last week is not this …
Last week is not …
Last week is …
Last week…
But man, does it look similar. Reflecting on results in Week 5, and seeing how essentially all of the chalk plays smashed with the rare exception of the late Tampa Bay // Seattle matchup shooting out, makes this week feel expected. Our confidence is high, whether we won or lost, because you can look back at the lineups that took down major tournaments and see how you could have gotten there yourself – a 1v1 here, a 2v2 there, and that could have been you!
The simple inclination this week is going to be overconfidence. Because when we look at how this Week 6 main slate stacks up, the similarities to Week 5’s main slate are crazy!
Cowboys are playing in the expected game of the week, on the road at an East Coast location. Playing a defense in Carolina that shows little resistance (sounds like the Jets?).
Cincinnati as huge underdogs going against an NFC North opponent expected to stomp them despite having a new quarterback.
Indianapolis is hosting an underachieving team, favored by about a touchdown (Cardinals, like the Raiders last week).
Tennessee is playing an underachieving team they could feasibly beat (Raiders this week, Cardinals last week).
Tampa Bay is playing an NFC West opponent (San Francisco this week, Seattle in Week 5) that has a good defense and can score points with them.
Seattle is getting a feisty matchup against a team with Liam Coen’s fingerprints on it (Jacksonville literally coached by him this week, Tampa influenced by his stint there last week).
It’s tough to ignore. Although based on the discourse I’ve seen this week, it doesn’t seem like this is a popular observation from people who have real followings, unlike me. However, I always look for little tidbits each week that can guide and shape how I will think through this week, and for me, Week 6, differing from Week 5, is going to be my jam in this one.
So, what jumps off the page as unique, but different to me?
Packers Stack with Jordan Love + Two Pass Catchers
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider
Finding An Edge
The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.
Ownership Strategy
Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.
Week 6 Overview
This week the afternoon slate consists of only three games. The general consensus on how these games will play out is::
The Packers dominate the Bengals
The Raiders win a low-scoring, ugly game over the Titans
The Bucs and 49ers have a high-scoring shootout
The main thing for this slate will be determining which of those outcomes we agree with and how we expect those situations to play out. For instance, maybe you agree the Packers will dominate the Bengals. Do you think that Josh Jacobs will dominate the work, and it will be an overall low-play-volume game with Cincinnati struggling again? Or will the Packers score four or five touchdowns (the last three Bengals opponents scored five, four, and four offensive touchdowns) with Jacobs and Jordan Love each posting position-topping scores for the slate? Who will get the receiving production? These are the levels we need to be thinking about when building rosters for this slate and layering those “stories” on top of each other.
QB Strategy
Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks score the most points of any position, and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must.
Quarterback ::
Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence is simply another case of a mispriced QB on Fanduel for this week’s sneaky potential shootout with the Seahawks banged-up secondary.
Justin Herbert – Herbert is the most expensive QB on the slate, which, on the surface, makes him difficult to stomach. However, the matchup is elite and it is very clear who the stacking partners are. Those stacking partners are relatively cheap.
Baker Mayfield – Last week was the first time Baker scored over 22 points, but it coincided with the first game played without Bucky Irving. The Bucs running game is unlikely to be efficient in the short term and they are an offense that always finds a way to move the ball. Mayfield is the engine of this offense right now.
Dak Prescott – Dak has been playing at a truly elite level recently and has clear stacking partners (Pickens or Ferguson) whose salaries are reasonable.
Running Back::
Josh Jacobs – The matchup is elite and Green Bay is expected to score around four touchdowns in this spot. Green Bay is coming off a bye and looking to get back to their roots. 100+ rushing yards and multiple touchdowns are squarely in play.
Kyren Williams – The biggest “question” around Kyren this week is whether the Rams get out to such a big lead that his volume gets undercut. The matchup and everything else are as good as it gets.
Ashton Jeanty – This is likely the best spot Jeanty is going to have all season, with a ripe matchup and his team expected to play from ahead. He is the clear offensive centerpiece for the Raiders.
Christian McCaffrey – CMC’s workload is insane and he is running cold on TDs this year. If that ever regresses, he’s going to drop a 40-burger on someone.
Jonathan Taylor – 30+ points in three of five games this season makes him impossible to ignore. Elite talent, workload, and offensive environment.
Rachaad White – White’s salary has bumped up, but given his pass-catching abilities and the way this game environment sets up, he is still a relative value for Week 6.
Rico Dowdle – He isn’t the lock he was last week as his price has risen significantly, but this is a terrific spot nonetheless, and Rico is going to touch the ball 20+ times in an outstanding matchup.
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.
Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook
This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.
As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.
Starting Point
The Week 6 main slate is another 10-gamer with the Texans and Vikings on bye, an early morning London game, and a double-header on MNF. There are seven early kickoffs and just three in the later window.Â
The slate is setting up pretty similarly to last week for me, with so many great RB options that you wish you had more spots to play them all. My goal is to find some of the more unique combinations of strong RB plays that I can on a slate where there are several ways to approach the position.
There are simply more expensive RB options this week than last week (top of pricing over $10k, six $8k backs this week vs four last week).
While there are still some strong values, they weren’t values exposed after pricing had been out, so they aren’t in the $4k-$5k range like they were a week ago.
The two top RB values this week each fall in the mid-high $6k range this week, being priced as if their injured RB teammates might play, before they were each later ruled out. Both backs had huge fantasy production for a combined $10,100 in FD salary in Week 5. They are projected to be the two highest-owned players on the FD main slate this week and could push close to 40% owned, especially in SE contests.Â
The starting point for my SE/3-Max rosters this week is considering how to handle these two similarly-priced chalk RB options on my main FD teams:
Rico Dowdle ($6,600) had a massive 234 scrimmage yard game last week, including 206 yards and a TD on the ground. He was 2nd on the team with four targets and had 26 total touches. This week, he plays as a home underdog against Dallas, his former team, in the game with the highest implied point total of the slate (49.5).
Rachaad White ($6,800) handled 14 of Tampa’s 17 RB carries for 41 yards and a pair of TDs last week and added 4-30 receiving. This week, the Bucs host the 49ers as three-point favorites in another game with a strong total (47.5).
