Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!!!
We’ll start out Week 6 prep with a simple question: “What is your edge?”
The word edge has a few different meanings, but having an edge is more grounded. It is defined as being slightly ahead of, possibly due to a superior quality or attribute. Finding ways to have an edge is more or less what predicting sports outcomes is all about.
If you’re playing any kind of lines against sportsbooks, betting team outcomes, player props, or building a roster portfolio for DFS, you (we) are constantly seeking an edge. So, naturally as you read and see content throughout a given week, you’ll inevitably come across a promised “edge” from a content provider who uncovers the how and why this edge exists and tells you how to play it. But what is our edge, really?
It could be found through sharp content providers because when you’re good, you can almost always find the right data and play that process until the edge ceases to exist. We have no shortage of information and data in 2025, and where there’s volume, there’s nearly always inefficiency. What strikes me, however, is that edges can come and go. In any venture we’re going to run hot, we’re going to run cold, especially when it comes to sports prediction and betting, where we have no control over the outcomes.
The other interesting piece to consider is with the plethora of information at our fingertips, the markets we play in are efficient. We can look at nearly every week of Vegas lines and over/unders in NFL games and realize how hard it is to sustain success. We can look at GPP lineups in a handful of weeks so far this season (including Week 5) where sims and optimizers spit out more than half of the best plays for the perfect roster.
But the pervasive takeaway about where edges exist is that they are constantly in motion. Last week is not this week just like last season is not this season. Behind success is likely failure, and behind failure is likely more success. The true ability to have an edge only exists in what we can sustain. And the only edge we can truly sustain is being ourselves. The only long-term edge you have is being you.
The cool aspect of this is that the being you part is completely subjective. Therefore, everyone has a unique edge. You frequently hear the content providers at OWS talk about their edges being how they (we) see things, how they (we) interpret games, and why our weird brains sometimes process things the way they do. Your edge could be similar, where you look at things differently than most. Your edge could be how you interpret the content you consume (thinking some are full of it, some genuine and sharp, etc.). Your edge could also be how you block out all the nonsense and carve out your path every week.
The point this week is that we all have an edge, and it’s us. We can always find short-term edges in many different places, but we should always realize that our only sustainable edge is ourselves.
It’s Week 6, we’re moving through the season swiftly now, and what’s most important is that you maintain your edge and don’t change your ways. It’s the best (only) way to attack the next slate, and the one after that, and the one after that…
OWS Player Grids Are Completely Free This Week
If you are an OWS Free member, just a heads up that player grids at OWS are FREE this week only. That includes core player pools from JM, Hilow, and Mike, as well as Papy’s Pieces and Sonic’s MME grid.Â
All you have to do is check The Scroll on Saturday. Pretty, pretty cool!
Week 6 :: Built Different
As a father of three kids under five, I came across some sage advice recently…”no matter what you do as a parent, no two children ever have the same childhood experience.” This is because everything is circumstantial. Even two children born to the same parents a year or so apart will have wildly different experiences. Why?
Because the parents are different with a first child vs. a second child. Because the second child has a sibling whereas the first did not. And pretty much everything else is also different, every year. So even as a parent who can try to control most things, you simply can’t. If nothing else, it teaches you to understand each child differently and recognize the variables that exist.
At first glance, Week 6 looks eerily similar to Week 5.
The Cowboys match up in perhaps the game of the week (Week 5 at Jets, Week 6 at Carolina). The Colts host another team at home favored by around a touchdown (Week 5 vs. Las Vegas, Week 6 hosting Arizona). The Bengals are massive underdogs (albeit now with a new QB in Joe Flacco) this week at Green Bay (Week 5 same situation hosting Detroit). The Bucs and Seahawks are involved in a game that could be a shootout (Week 5 vs. each other, Week 6- 49ers at Bucs and Seahawks at Jags).
We also have another week where Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Lamar Jackson are expected to be out. The former two bring RB chalk back into our lives once again with Rico Dowdle and Rachaad White. Oh, and it’s a 10-game slate, just like last week.
Looks similar, but built differently. I promise you.
How? Let’s look at some natural angles we can explore in Week 6:
- Cowboys at Panthers: Without being as much of a rushing threat, Bryce Young likely won’t be the chalk Justin Fields was last week. The Panthers offense has shown more than the Jets, as well, and Dowdle added a new element last week. Now he gets his former team? Sign me up. Jalen Coker could also return for Carolina, while CeeDee Lamb’s possible return would change how the Cowboys approach things. The Cowboys offense hummed on all cylinders last week, so will they have a repeat performance or change anything in their approach as road favorites?
- Cardinals at Colts:Â Indy holds a healthy 27-point implied total and as seven-point favorites over a possibly Kyler-less Cardinals team. How many touchdowns is too many touchdowns for Jonathan Taylor here? The Colts dominated the Raiders in Week 5 in a similar scenario, but even if we get Jacoby Brissett under center for Arizona, there has to be some fight in this team proving something after the abnormal loss they suffered in Week 5 to Tennessee.
- 49ers at Bucs: At face value, this game holds the simplest-to-see shootout potential next to Carolina // Dallas, after both of these offenses moved the ball with ease last week (Mac Jones 342/2, Baker Mayfield 379/2). The absence of Irving and Mike Evans continues to condense the Bucs’ offensive tree, and the 49ers still run everything through Christian McCaffrey. Easy to see a player block forming, and easy to envision points being scored in bunches. If this game plays to the downside, it’s likely we see the old or hobbled Jones and Robert Saleh’s defense gives Mayfield fits.
- Seahawks at Jags: Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence playing for two real contenders in their respective conferences in Week 6. Not sure I had that on my card, but we have to respect it at this point. Seattle was forced into aggressive offense by Tampa Bay last week. Will Jacksonville do the same? The Jags D has been a sneaky unit so far this season, leading the NFL with 14 takeaways. They’ve completely shifted some of Jacksonville’s outcomes. Can they sustain it?
- Patriots at Saints: The NFL was banking on Bengals and Packers being the late game of the week here in the schedule release, but instead we may get Pats and Saints being slightly more competitive. Drake Maye can ride the high from last week’s win into New Orleans, but the Saints also seemed to finally figure out how to score points in Week 5. We’re all getting more comfortable with offenses backed by Maye and Spencer Rattler. Illusion, reality, or time to go touch some grass?
The best of the rest includes the Rams and their 26-point total traveling to Baltimore. The field will be all over a now priced-up Puka Nacua // The Chargers bring new injuries and a new running back room into Miami, whose run defense is a bottom-two unit in the league by seemingly every metric // The Raiders host the Titans and are favored in a game they may still not have Brock Bowers for. How many touches is too many for Ashton Jeanty here?Â
So many ways to build, so many voices will come at you this week. Remember this: your edge is being you.
And with that we’ll see you on the site this weekend, bantering about the free player grids in Discord, and as always at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday!
This is your one-week season!
~Larejo
