Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!

Welcome to Week 5! If you’re new here — welcome! 

At OWS, we do our best to respect your inbox, but in the rhythm of our traditional week, we drop the Angles email every Thursday to give an early, overview look at the slate ahead. What opportunities does this main slate present to us? What’s the personality of this week? Essentially, we assess the slate with a first-look in a manner that will “win us the most money over time” (and share / learn a few lessons along the way!).

If you blinked, you missed a near-quarter of the 2025 season just flying past us, as we turned the calendars to October this week. As rich as the storylines week in and week out can be, it’s equally amazing at how quickly the season progresses. 

With each week (each “one week season”), it’s hard to appreciate how we’re all fully zoomed in at all times. For many of us, fantasy football (whether via DFS, season-long, Best Ball, or pick’ems) is something we dive into each week and try to absorb as much content in as little time as we have to properly feel confident about where we place our chips on Sunday’s games. Zooming in is cool, but zooming out is cooler. I’ll explain.

We’ve all likely heard the popular saying by now at some point in your life, “how you do anything is how you do everything.” Can’t really dispute it, and it’s a principle you could put to work in almost any context and use it appropriately. But, like most things, this quote has its limitations. 

In doing anything, it’s important to understand when to turn it up (i.e., enhance attention or zoom in) and when to scale it back (i.e., take it easy or zoom out). You really could do anything with tremendous attention to detail, but you may not necessarily always apply that same approach to other aspects of life. The real challenge to me in navigating how we consistently do everything with the same level of rigor is the ability to balance being fully “on” while also being able to have perspective (the why, the how) of whatever you are doing.

In the grueling 18-week season of the NFL, every week presents a story. As we dive in each week, and we’re zoomed in, many of us can tell our friends some fascinating data points of certain teams, players, and more. Those data points in 2025 usually sound something like… 

Wide receiver X has this win rate vs. man coverage // Team defense Y yields five more expected fantasy points to running backs over expectation // Quarterback Z shreds cover-2 defenses which may be deployed 60% of the time in this matchup to the tune of six touchdowns and no interceptions (I did tell you how cool zooming in is!).

But, what “wins us the most money over time” is really zooming out. Macro elements like regression (which is sometimes very basic at team or player level) and variance (do things seem too straightforward?) fall into this category. Zooming out takes your specific data points and seemingly overrides them at times. 

It’s these factors that go into every lineup we build, every parlay we place, every pick’em we choose. It’s the combination of zooming in while zooming out. As we prep for Week 5, there will be: 

• Teams, coaches, and players who have great matchups and have performed well this season. 
• Teams, coaches, and players who have poor matchups and have performed well this season.
• Teams, coaches, and players who have great matchups and have performed poorly this season.
• Teams, coaches, and players who have poor matchups and have performed poorly this season.

It’s likeliest the top performers from this upcoming week will be players who we can identify in each of these categories. Not all in the first, not all in the second, etc. This is zooming in (looking for those vital data points) while zooming out (recognizing which of these four categories is the best label) to build for the most likely real-life outcomes on Sunday. 

This BINK’s for YOU

If you’ve been following along this season, you know OWS has been in the season of giving maybe a bit early! And this week, we’ve got yet another huge discount coming your way…

The Bink Machine (you know, the only tool that hand-builders and 150-maxers can unite and agree on) is 50% off the full-season price ($74.50 this week!), for one week only.

Week 5 :: The Setup

Four teams on bye this week (Steelers, Bears, Packers, and Falcons) and our first London game (Vikings // Browns: I know it’s going to be hard to wait to play Dillon Gabriel) simplifies things a bit on a now manageable 10-game slate on Sunday. And the first question you’ll likely need an answer for is, how will you play the Lions?

Detroit has a 30-point implied total this week as they travel to Cincinnati (19), who is falling apart after the drubbing they suffered to Bo Nix and the Broncos on Monday night. The Lions are heaving favorites ala the Bills’ last two games (v. Dolphins, v. Saints), so the question is not if they will score, but how? We can always pull up the Jared Goff home/road splits if needed, but the combination of what we’ve seen from Cincinnati’s offense post-Burrow and what we’ve seen from Cincy’s defense all season creates a winnable matchup for the Lions all around. All of Amon-Ra, Jahmyr Gibbs, and even David Montgomery have already posted week-winning upside games this season. Detroit may be more condensed than its previous iterations, but will volume be there, and can Cincy keep it close?

If Detroit is the first question, how do you play the Commanders (22.75) // Chargers (25.75) matchup is the second. Signs are pointing to Jayden Daniels returning (and there’s a chance we get Terry McLaurin as well), which should allow the rest of Commanders offense to settle back into typical roles. The Commanders allowed yet another huge day from a pass catcher as Drake London lit them up last week (Tre Tucker in Week 3), so it’s on you to pick the right Chargers WR. We could see either Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, or Quentin Johnston post a huge day if the touchdowns swing to them.

The Colts (27.5) are touchdown favorites hosting the Raiders (20.5), and you know Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and the whole organization want to prove they weren’t a three-game fluke after last week’s loss at the hands of the Rams. The schedule hasn’t been too difficult, but an implied total over 27 points brings Jones, Taylor, Tyler Warren, and “a Colts WR to be named later who won’t drop the ball while crossing the goal line” squarely onto our radar. On the Raiders’ side, Week 4 was Ashton Jeanty week; will Week 5 be similar, or will another Raider (remember Brock Bowers?) get loose on a Colts secondary that Puka Nacua just caught another pass against as I was typing this.

All of the Cardinals (24 implied points, hosting Titans), Cowboys (24.5, at Jets), Eagles (23.5, hosting Broncos), and Seahawks (24, hosting Buccaneers) would be next on my list as the most likely teams to put up 30+ points this week. Arizona gives everyone the feels when they are big favorites, but they found a bit of their post-James Conner offensive groove in the second half last week || Dallas can score, and it will seemingly run through Javonte, Pickens, and Ferguson, but the Jets know that too. Does it matter? || The entire city of Philadelphia seemingly wants the Eagles to win a game with Jalen Hurts’ arm, through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but to what extent do they force that? An undefeated record is better than the style points, and a matchup with Denver’s defense might not be the spot to mess around || Seattle isn’t the most exciting, but if they could just unleash their offense a bit more…and what happens when we get Sam Darnold against a defense that likes to blitz a lot?

Then there’s the notable injuries on teams playing their first real week without (Lamar, Nabers, Tyreek), in some cases the backup quarterbacks, and the matchups expected to be low-scoring, defensive slugfests (Texans // Ravens, Giants // Saints, Dolphins // Panthers). 

Big scores can emerge from any game environment, so why not take the zoom-out approach this week? Make sure you have some representation from each category called out earlier to ensure we’re not building for A) too straightforward an outcome, B) too random, or C) too skewed toward one path.

As always, the right mix is the right approach.

Get on the site for so much more in the coming days.

Remember to fire up the Bink Machine (50% off this week!), and build your best this weekend. 

Can’t wait to see you at the top of the leaderboards in Week 5!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND

tuesday, Sept. 30 Early Thoughts ::

Diving right in this week.

Here are some early notes I hammered in last night ::

Last week at some point, I called Quentin Johnston a $7k wideout. I backtracked that in my thinking a bit as we moved deeper into the week, simply because I don’t think the Chargers will completely maintain enough volume for him to reach that price tag this year; but I do think he’s playing like a $7k wideout right now, and in games when the volume is there, that level of ceiling will be there. if Jayden Daniels comes back this week, there’s a decent chance this game is competitive enough for the volume to be there. With some routes sure to be on the ghost of Marshon Lattimore, the ceiling would be there. Nice value at $5.7k, with low ownership keeping his price down as people have been slow to challenge their priors here.

Goff could have one of those random 5-td games vs the Bengals.

If Jayden Daniels can figure out the chargers, that game between Daniels and Herbert has potential to provide plenty of touchdowns.

If Fields fails, or if he does well but someone else does even better, those are the spots likeliest to provide the top score on the slate. But in terms of probability and upside, Fields is pretty clearly in a tier to himself on this slate.

Maybe this will be one of those things where my thoughts change as we move deeper into the week, but it feels pretty clear that he’s the best on-paper play.

41 // 48 // 55 — that’s what we’ve gotten from Javonte + Cowboys wr1 in three of four. If Fields hits, it’s highly likely Garrett Wilson hits. If Fields really hits, it’s almost certainly in an environment in which the cowboys are scoring points. If the Cowboys are scoring points, two of Javonte // Pickens // Ferguson are almost certainly involved. Fields + Wilson + two Cowboys is a very strong starting block.

72 & 65 (combined points) last two Javonte + WR1 + Ferguson — 70.4 is 4x for the full block 106 & 91 with dak — 94.4 is 4x for the full block

RIGHT NOW ::

I’m in Oakland reserving lineups.

Over the next couple days, I’ll continue watching last week’s games and working through this week’s slate.

I imagine I’ll have more thoughts worth passing along at some point today, and definitely throughout the evening/night Wednesday.

As always, I’ll be working on the early shape of the Player Grid on Thursday evening/night, and I’ll pass along thoughts there.

Friday night I’ll bridge the gap between the Player Grid and my “Build thoughts.”

Saturday night I’ll be building and sharing what I’m seeing.

I had a nice hit in Week 4 (second place in the Facemask for $20k; just a click off the $50k first-place payout — shoutout to the Bink Machine and the Sims for helping me find the roster I put in play there; my second-highest expected ROI of the 1,000+ rosters I worked through last week), and we’ll look to keep it rolling this week.

Let’s go!

COWBOYS // JETS ::

I just finished watching this Jets // Dolphins game.

One complication to the Fields play this week: the Jets are putrid on offense…

Furthermore, they pretty much refuse to throw until they have to.

Yes, the Cowboys have a great offense; but as we have explored, they are not naturally aggressive. There is a world in which the Cowboys are in control and stay conservative, and the Jets are close enough that they keep almost everything on the ground.

It’s a weird week, then, as QB is genuinely pretty ugly (which is why it looked to me, at first glance, like Fields was in a clear top tier on his own).

It’s pretty comfortable to say Fields has the best shot at différence-making ceiling on this week’s slate…but there are certainly pathways down which he comes nowhere close to sniffing that ceiling.

Should be an interesting week to work our way through.

On a separate note: this could easily be a week like last week, where plenty of running backs do well, and you just have to make sure you have a couple of the guys who hit. But among that group of guys likely to hit is Achane. Great matchup vs the Panthers; and with no Tyreek, Achane will be a focal point.

A pretty obvious one, but worth shouting out.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 1 UPDATE ::

GIANTS-SAINTS ::

This Giants // Saints game is interesting.

Outside of a horrible game in Seattle (tough travel, tough environment) where a cascade of early mistakes put them in an impossible situation that they didn’t have a solution for…outside of that, the Saints have looked really solid. Not great or even good, but impressively solid.

The Giants have a tremendous defensive line, but not much else; and the Saints are all about the quick passing, and are playing almost entirely in rhythm, which could give them an edge toward successful drives. If these drives end in touchdowns, we have something interesting.

The Giants used Dart like Tim Tebow in his first start (lots of designed runs, an entire game plan designed around the rushing attack, with limited passing), and he doesn’t have Nabers. I could see Daboll having a totally different // evolved game plan jn Dart’s second start, though the loss of Nabers complicates that. It’s hard to see the Giants piling up tons of points, but something like a 23-27 game is in play, with the Saints getting their first win.

The Saints were good vs the Bills, but just couldn’t score. They could have less trouble vs the Giants. Three team touchdowns seems like around what they would average here over time, so spikes to four touchdowns and outliers to five would happen if we played out this game a hundred times.

This is becoming a split backfield, and the running backs aren’t a huge part of the passing attack, so it’s a “Rattler + pass catcher (or two)” setup here, for me. We also run the risk that the Saints attack on the ground like they did vs Buf, and no one really produces even in a good game for them.

Just firing off some thoughts.

JETS // COWBOYS ::

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3 THOUGHTS ::

this image is from one of my highest-roi rosters of the week so far in the bink machine, and one i’ve set aside as an early favorite for potential goff builds: a goff // jamo // arsb // laporta stack. we talk about building rosters that can finish “all the way to the left or all the way to the right,” but it’s especially interesting to see visual representation of this type of roster on an roi scale. from these mid-week sims, this roster finishes in the bottom 1% of tourneys a whopping 4.6% of the time; but it also finishes in the top 1% 2.6% of the time, and more importantly, it pushes into the top 0.1% a whopping 0.56% of the time. it’s a really fun “all or nothing” stack this week.

Player Grid :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-5-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-5-25

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4 UPDATES ::

GENERAL ROSTER-BUILDING THOUGHTS ::

Weird night; i keep poking around on things, and i feel like i am making headway in my thoughts, but i don’t really have any fresh insights or ideas or conclusions to share

i’ve been playing around with some ja’marr chase builds, and i’ve been seeing what these dowdle builds look like, since my builds to this point in the week had obviously not had him.

i also keep thinking the dolphins will have to find a way to ramp up waller’s snaps.

still lots to work through on this unique slate, and i probably won’t feel i have much more clarity until i’m deep in my builds tomorrow night — but as always, if i come across any fresh thoughts between now and then, i’ll pass them along.

JM’S EXPOSURE PROGRESS ::

It’s starting to look like most of my exposure this week will be primarily focused on:

cowboys // jets
lions (with some ja’marr starting to make its way in)
dolphins // panthers
chargers

in my most recent set of 23 hand-builds, only jsn (15-20%) and bowers // jakobi // mhj (all sub-10%) were coming from outside these teams.

obviously, these are not “final answers,” but this is where my late-week mind is starting to go while building.

BRYCE YOUNG // RICO DOWDLE ROSTER-BUILDING ANGLE ::

In 6/9 games to close last year, “bryce young + carolina rb1” combined for 31.5+ DK points (3.5x or better for Bryce + Dowdle), including games of 71.9 (8x) and 53.7 (miles sanders; nearly 6x).

in those big games, scoring took off, and pairing with the opposing rb1 led to 101.1 and 88.0.

there is a truly decent chance (easily greater than 5%, and possibly greater than 10%) that a young + dowdle + achane pairing could go for 5x or better (81.5) — or at least 4.5x or better (73.3).

this one is climbing up the ranks for me a bit. “if fields fails, what could win this week?” i won’t be surprised if i have something like ~15% of my bankroll taking swings on this setup this week.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE ::

Winner Circle pod is up in the Inner Circle podcast feed (if you don’t have that podcast feed added, you can do so here – https://podcasts.helloaudio.fm/subscribe/02f04db2-208d-4705-bb76-b682e2592e73/8638EQf7l3) // if you’re curious where my thoughts are as I head into building, with regards to how I’m attacking things and how I’m seeing this slate as I head into my Saturday night roster construction, I think this pod has a lot of value this week.

My “Sunday Morning” Update is early this week. Let’s go! https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-5-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-5-25

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, 10/5 UPDATE ::

JM’S LIKELY FINAL EXPOSURE ::

Barring late-breaking news, my exposures are shaping up as follows:

25%+ bankroll on each of goff // fields // bryce young || remainder on herbert // kyler // with a bit of browning

50% or more of bankroll on each of breece // achane // gibbs, with dowdle and javonte between 30% and 50%, and with 10% or less of rachaad // omarion // jt // saquon. (just a reminder: if i’m playing someone, i like them; so don’t overthink things if i have small bankroll exposure to someone you plan to have big bankroll exposure to). i didn’t end up with any skattebo, but i still like the play this week.

50% or more of bankroll on each of jameson williams // arsb // pickens, with garrett wilson and jsn between 30% and 50%, and with ~15% or less of qj // tmac // ja’marr // waddle // mhj // ayomanor // pittman // nico

i somehow ended up with zero tyler warren (lots of ferguson and laporta accounted for on fields // goff bankroll exposure, and other things worked better on my other builds), but i still very much like the play this week. i have between 30% and 50% of laporta and ferguson, with waller at ~25% representing my other significant exposure.

at dst, i somehow ended up with zero cardinals, but i still very much like the play this week. most of my exposure is on the saints, with some texans and seahawks mixed in.

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Allow me to set the stage for the Week 5 main slate. There are only 10 games making it the smallest slate of the season as bye weeks are here and there is an international game in London. There are four games with a game total of 47.0 or higher: Raiders @ Colts (seven-point spread), Cowboys @ Jets (two-point spread), Commanders @ Chargers (three-point spread), and Lions @ Bengals (10.5-point spread). Running back injuries are running rampant throughout the league, while there aren’t any true “pay up for elite quarterback” options on the slate with no Josh Allen, no Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels fresh off a two-game absence without his primary option through the air (Terry McLaurin), and Jalen Hurts in a broken offense with a middling game total (43.5).

Now for the punch line. Through all that uncertainty and variance, this slate is the chalkiest slate of the season. There are currently nine to 12 players expected to garner 20%+ ownership, depending on where you look. That is absolutely bonkers to me. Let’s make a quick comparison to highlight what I mean here. There were three players expected to be on more than 20% of rosters last week – Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Jakobi Meyers (lolz). Both CMC and Nacua were expected to garner more than 30% ownership. The one player currently projecting for more than 30% ownership on the Week 5 main slate is De’Von Achane, who goes down as a solid on-paper play this week. But does his role come anywhere close to those of CMC and Puka? Hell no. CMC currently averages over 11 XFP/G more than Achane. Chew on that for a minute. CMC’s median projection last week was about five points higher than Achane’s this week. Achane doesn’t even carry the highest median projection at the position on this slate! Achane ranks third at the position in median projection versus salary (value) on this slate! The list goes on (again, simply for the sake of comparison to ground our thoughts this week).

That means we have a wide-open slate, with very little certainty, and absurd levels of “thinner than perception” chalk. It is not going to take much to generate meaningful leverage on a slate like that!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

A quick disclaimer: we’ll use Xandamere’s ownership projections for this discussion this week, which weight projections from around the industry a bit better than anywhere else, from my experience. There are currently nine players expected to garner more than 20% ownership in his last run.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is objectively a top on-paper play on this slate at the running back position. The above discussion on the state of the slate was not meant to take away from Achane as he is compared to the other plays in Week 5, simply that this slate is far different than the one we had last week. The chalk is much more fragile than it has been recently.

JONATHAN TAYLOR

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Taylor takes the trophy for top median projection at the running back position in Week 5. Like Achane, he is more fragile than the top median projections from other slates this season.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN’s underlying metrics have predictably regressed after his torrid start, now accounting for a 33.0% target share, 0.37 TPRR, and still-robust 4.32 YPRR. Compare those values to the 36.5% target share, 0.43 TPRR, and 4.37 YPRR values of Puka Nacua, and he’s not far off. The main difference that separates the two (and keeps JSN from truly elite company) is the difference in pass volume from each of their offenses. The Rams are averaging 36.8 pass attempts per game (seventh in the league) while the Seahawks are averaging just 25.8 pass attempts per game (31^st in the league). That massive difference in team volume requires the game environment to cooperate for JSN, whereas Nacua can get there in a wider array of outcomes. Again, more fragility.

BREECE HALL

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hall is the primary beneficiary of “an injury from a team playing on Monday in the previous week” on this slate, meaning he is expected to step into an increased role without seeing his price adjusted to account for it. His $5,600 DK salary is far too low for the matchup, expected role, team total, and expected game environment. Hall currently stands as the chalk I plan on eating the most of in Week 5.

OMARION HAMPTON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hampton saw every running back carry in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Giants and returned a solid 128-1 line on the ground in addition to 5-37 through the air. That said, he still plays for the team ranked first in PROE and is playing a Commanders team holding opposing backs to 3.6 yard per carry. He did his damage a week ago on 12 carries, and his offensive line has been gutted by injuries. Fragile.

TREY MCBRIDE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Cardinals are averaging 20.5 points per game (23^rd) and are averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game (15^th). Kyler Murray attempted 29 and 25 passes in the team’s two wins this season, and the Cardinals are currently 7.5-point favorites at home against the Titans. McBride is as good a bet as any tight end on the slate to see 6-8 targets, but he’s also highly unlikely to hit double-digit looks in the expected game environment and appears to be valued by the field primarily as a one-off (instead of being stacked with Kyler). Fragile.

RACHAAD WHITE

EXPANSIVE CHALK. The matchup is atrocious against a Seahawks defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry, but White brings enough through the air to give him multiple paths to paying off his low $4,700 DK salary. The Buccaneers are also missing multiple offensive linemen in Week 5. The play doesn’t jump off the page as well as the field seems to think here. Fragile.

JAHMYR GIBBS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Gibbs has one game this season with more than 19 opportunities while continuing to share backfield duties with David Montgomery, despite seeing his snap rate tick up slightly compared to 2024. Even so, the upside is clearly evident against a Bengals team allowing 32.5 DK points per game to opposing running backs this season (second most to only the Ravens). I prefer Gibbs in team stacks or game stacks this week.

GARRETT WILSON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wilson has scored 20.2 DK points or more in three of four games while seeing eight or more targets in every game this season, making him a solid bet to reach a 3x salary multiplier on his moderate $6,100 Week 5 salary. Nobody is going to want to hear this, but the Jets are quietly averaging more points per game than the Cardinals, Chargers, 49ers, and Dolphins, to name a few teams. His median projection is currently tied for fourth at the position, while he is priced as only the ninth-most expensive wide receiver on the slate, all in a game against a Cowboys team allowing the most pass yards per game in 2025. It feels gross to say, but the two Jets chalk pieces are amongst the best on-paper plays on the slate.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

• Bryce Young has struggled this season, ranking 26th in accuracy percentage and 32nd in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A) at 4.42. It has not been pretty, but he has one “GPP-worthy” performance already this season (26.3 FP in AZ). Now he gets his best matchup of the season against MIA, who has allowed a 114.1 passer rating and ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed. They are also second in FP allowed to QBs (behind Dallas) and will again be without two starting CBs. In addition, MIA has been gashed on the ground by QBs, lifting Young’s potential ceiling while at his lowest price of the season ($4.7K on DK/$6.6K on FD). MIA has allowed four rushing TDs to QBs in four games, with only Josh Allen (somehow) missing out on the fun. In addition, Chuba Hubbard is likely out, which should push CAR toward a higher neutral pass rate, while also lowering their league-leading red zone rush rate. 
• Despite missing CeeDee Lamb for the past two games and running into bad luck in week one, Dak Prescott enters Week 5 averaging 20 FP/g, one of just five QBs sporting a 20+ FP/g average heading into Week 5. Two QB1 performances at home have fueled it, a split we have seen a lot from him over the past few seasons. Over his last 30 games, Dak is averaging 23 FP/g at home and just 15 FP/g on the road. In addition to missing Lamb again, he will also be without WR KaVontae Turpin, but that is the theme with this slate: just about every team has serious injury issues heading into Sunday. 
• The matchup is decent, NYJ has allowed 7 TD passes on the 6th fewest pass attempts. What keeps Dak in play, even with all the injury issues, is his poor defense. He is 1st in pass attempts per game, averaging 280 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes, thanks to DAL allowing 33 points per game. 
• WASH has been quietly bad against the pass this season, whether due to injury or not. They have allowed the 8th-most FP/g to QBs and just turned Michael Penix into a viable DFS option last week, giving up a 111.6 passer rating over their last three games. This week, they face Justin Herbert in a bounce-back spot. Herbert did not look sharp in New York, completing less than 56% of his passes after hitting only 59% against Denver in Week 3. That came on the heels of a red-hot start to the season, where he averaged 300+ yards and 2 passing TDs per game on a 72% completion rate. Coverage has been a big problem for WASH. They have played the 9th-highest rate of man-coverage  (5th-highest YPA allowed). Last week, Penix posted a 154 passer rating with 2 TD passes against them when they were in man (56% of dropbacks). When in zone (49%), they are still getting burned, allowing 8.0 YPA (28th) and a 116 passer rating over their last three games. In addition, WAS will have Jayden Daniels back at QB, which (I hope) will keep LAC aggressive for four quarters (LAC already ranks first in neutral pass rate). 

• Kyler Murray is not playing well (28th in Fantasy Points Per Dropback), despite having the 5th-lowest pressure rate of any QB. With him averaging 3.7 FP/g via rushing production, his 16.4 FP/g average (DK) and 4.5 ANY/A (35th) look even worse. TEN has allowed the 7th fewest FP/g to QBs as teams have not needed to be aggressive against them this season. With AZ 6th in points allowed, I can’t see TEN pushing Murray enough to make him a viable GPP option (TEN averaging just 12.8 points per game/32nd).
• Again, this slate is fairly gross, so enter Sam Darnold in a pass-funnel matchup with TB (1st in rush DVOA per FTN Data). TB is allowing just 3.4 YPC this season after holding PHI to 2.8 YPC last week. We have read this script before, with TB allowing 72% of their yards against via the pass last season. This year, they are 9th in FP allowed to QBs despite facing Tyrod Taylor, CJ Stroud, and Michael Penix. In addition, SEA has been solid against the run, pushing their opponents into a higher pass rate (6th overall) and leading to 70% of yards gained against the Seahawks coming through the air. Darnold has been good on a Fantasy Points Per-Dropback basis, ranking 4th among QBs who have started and played all four games. SEA just hasn’t asked him to do much with their defense keeping them in games. 
• The hope is that Baker Mayfield can score enough to force SEA out of their conservative ways and put Darnold in a spot where he can get more volume to go along with his efficiency (7th in accuracy rate).

RB

• Among RBs with 40+ carries, Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery rank 1st (Monty) and 3rd (Gibbs) in fantasy points per rush attempt. They “run” into arguably the best matchup on the slate with CIN looking totally overmatched in their past two games without Joe Burrow. CIN has allowed 5.27 yards per carry on 30 carries per game (4th most), leading to 35 FP/g for RBs (2nd most, last three weeks). They have allowed 193 total yards to backs after another 250 last week to DEN, where both Dobbins and Harvey cleared 14.5 FP. 
• Gibbs has seen an increase in usage this year, which has me salivating to play him in this matchup. He averaged 16.1 touches per game last year with Monty on the field and 19.8 this season (averaging 1 FP per opportunity, down from 1.13 in 2024), giving him the highest floor/ceiling combo of any player on the slate. 
• On teams without Gibbs, I will have a good amount of Montgomery exposure. While I love stats and data, you can’t just ignore #NarrativeStreet. Monty will be playing in CIN for the first time in his career. “I think it’s just going to be a rush of emotions. I have never played in Cincinnati since leaving Cincinnati, which will be cool. Playing against the team that, when I grew up, that was the team, was like my team. That was a hometown kid. A bunch of my family members are coming.” 
• In addition, he will be playing in front of his paralyzed sister, which makes this about as strong a narrative angle as I can recall. 
• The Ravens are limping into Week 5. Nnamdi Madubuike, Ar’Darius Washington, and Broderick Washington Jr. are on IR. Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Chidobe Awuzie, and Kyle Hamilton are all going to be out this week. All of this sets up Woody Marks for another big game after posting 21 touches for 119 total yards and 2 TDs last week vs. TEN. He is averaging 1.11 Fantasy Points per Touch, which puts him in elite company. For context, Bijan Robinson averages 1.08 FP/touch, though on a significantly higher volume. With Lamar Jackson out and the HOU defense playing at a very high level, this should set up Marks and Nick Chubb as a poor man’s version of Monty and Gibbs vs. CIN. HOU ran the ball 35 times last week against TEN, and with their pass-blocking struggles, that should again be the game plan here. The injuries have also led to the Ravens allowing the most FP/g to RBs this season (4.9 yards per carry to RBs), a stark contrast after giving up the 4th-fewest FP to RBs in 2024 (3.5 RB yards per carry, 1st). They have also allowed the most RZ scoring opportunities per game (5). 
• In addition to the numbers trending in the right direction for Marks, there is a lot of positive vibes/news coming out of HOU regarding Marks. 
• Tony Pollard has been in a brutal situation so far this season. With his team struggling to score (0.22 Points per Play, 31st), his target share has plummeted. TEN targeted their RBs at a top-10 rate last season (19%, 5.5 targets per game), but that number has fallen to just 9% (2.5 targets per game). With his team dead last in yards per play, Pollard is left being a TD-dependent back on a team that doesn’t score many TDs (31st in RZ trips per game). 
• Cam Skattebo got a massive workload in his first full game with Tyrone Tracy OUT (27 touches + a 2-point conversion). He was not good from an efficiency basis (32% Rushing  Success Rate), but he gets a much better matchup this week. He did not get the receiving work we saw with Russell Wilson, but with Malik Nabers OUT, I assume they will scheme up a few plays for Skattebo to get him more involved as a pass catcher. NO allows 25 FP/g to backs (5 TDs in four games) after James Cook posted 135 total yards and a TD. 

WR

• Jameson Williams had 175 unrealized air yards last week against CLE, the 6th-most in a game this season, and nearly three times as many as the entire CIN team had in Week 4. He and Goff have missed on several big plays this year, with only 60% of his targets deemed catchable. This sets up as a prime “buy low” opportunity in GPPs at his 3–5% projected ownership.
• Chris Godwin Jr. practiced in full this week after returning to play 81% of offensive snaps (88% route participation). He recorded 120 unrealized air yards on 10 targets. With Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Bucky Irving out, Godwin (37% slot rate) should be in line for another 10+ targets at sub-10% ownership. SEA plays zone coverage on 67% of defensive snaps, which sets up well for both Baker Mayfield and Godwin. Baker has a 44% completion rate against man (65 passer rating) compared to a 68% completion rate and 113.8 passer rating against zone.
• Michael Pittman Jr. was third last week with 117 unrealized air yards. He pulled in just 50% of his targets from Danny Dimes, a sharp drop from his 84% catch rate heading into Week 4. Alec Pierce remains out in this plus matchup with LV, who allow the 4th-most receptions and FP to WRs. Pittman is mispriced for his usage (1st in team target share, 1st in first-read target share) and production (TDs in 3 of 4).
• Darius Slayton played in two games last season without Malik Nabers, averaging 7–89.5–0.5 (18.9 FP/g). It’s a short sample with a different QB, but at $4.3k, that’s enough for me on this slate. He’ll see a lot of CBs Quincy Riley and Kool-Aid McKinstry, who have allowed 2.1 and 2.5 Fantasy Points per Target Defended in Coverage, respectively.
• Troy Franklin has an 87% route participation rate over his last three games, just 2% behind team-leader Courtland Sutton. He’s also second on DEN in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating), averaging 6.75 targets per game. With Marvin Mims banged up, Franklin should again see significant slot usage (59% slot rate). At $4k, and low projected ownership, he’ll be firmly in the GPP player pool.

TE

• Jake Ferguson has hauled in 29 of 33 targets across three games with CeeDee Lamb out. That production makes him the TE1 over that span and for the season (18% first-read target share). He has also operated as the Cowboys slot WR on 44% of his routes in the last three games, a number that should climb with Turpin out (66% slot rate). Despite this usage and sub-$5K price tag, Ferguson is projected as only the 3rd-most owned TE on the slate when he should be the highest. That has me jamming him into most of my lineups. NYJ has allowed a 73% completion rate to TEs, giving up 13 FP/g and two TDs to Darren Waller last week.

• Tommy Tremble ran 34% of his routes from the slot last week with all the injuries to CAR WRs and TEs. He should be heavily involved again after posting a 22% target share (tied with Tetairoa McMillan for the team lead) in an even better matchup against MIA, who have allowed the most receiving yards and the 4th-most FP/g to TEs. At $2.9k on DK, he is my favorite punt TE on the slate.

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide. Questions or feedback? Reach out on Discord: @bearklaw0

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Justin Fields
Rico Dowdle
Jahmyr Gibbs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Adonai Mitchell
Garrett Wilson
Darren Waller
Ladd McConkey
Saints

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Not unusual by this point in the year, but I don’t have any true “Blue Chip” plays this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“4”

Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Jameson Williams + Sam LaPorta

Story:

“All the way to the left, or all the way to the right”

Why It Works:

We’re trying to win tournaments. Remember that.

On Thursday night, the Bink Machine spit out a Goff + 3 roster for me, and when I ran the sims on it, it was my highest-ROI roster so far on the week. Interestingly, the roster was projected to finish in the bottom 1% of tournament fields nearly 5% of the time(!)…but also, it was projected to finish in the top 0.1% of tournament fields 0.56% of the time. Basically, it was 5x as likely as the average roster to finish at the very back of the leaderboards, and it was 5x as likely as the average roster to finish at the very top of the leaderboards.

I’ve been saying all week that this sets up for one of those random “27 attempt, five touchdown” games that Goff is capable of.

If he has one of those here, it’s possible that the overstack is the way to capture all the points.

This is an all-or-nothing block, but it’s one that would make us plenty of money if we could play out this slate a hundred times.

How It Works:

On a roster with this block, I’m fine playing high-usage chalk plays the rest of the way. If this hits, the goal from here is to not screw things up elsewhere. I won’t fight it if I have a roster with this block that also has another off-the-board piece; but generally speaking, it’s fine to play things very straightforward away from this block of players.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“6”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Fields Includes Cowboys

Because the Jets are refusing to let Justin Fields take over games, they need the Cowboys to be scoring points for Fields to have a clear shot at tourney-winning production; and if the concentrated Cowboys offense is scoring points in that way, there will be DFS scores we can benefit from. With this in mind, it makes sense to have a rule (and to follow this rule on hand builds as well) that ensures that all Fields rosters also have exposure to the Cowboys.

This rule says, “On 100% of Fields rosters, include at least one, and as many as three, of these Cowboys” (on 100% of rosters with the locked player, include two to four of the total players in this pool).

Note: Because Pickens and Ferguson probably need volume in order to post tourney-winning production, and because they probably need the Jets keeping pace in order to see volume, I also like the idea of including at least one Jets piece on every Pickens or Ferguson build.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Justin Fields || Justin Herbert || Kyler Murray || Jared Goff || >>—<< || I’ll also probably mix in a little bit of bankroll exposure in larger-field SE/3-Max to one or two of the QBs more suited to large-field play :: Spencer Rattler // Daniel Jones // Sam Darnold // Jaxson Dart // Bryce Young // Jake Browning.

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Jahmyr Gibbs // David Montgomery – Detroit’s backfield is almost a “must” for me in every lineup. The matchup is incredibly solid, and the Lions have shown they will keep laying it on. I think you can even justify playing them together.
• Omarion Hampton – Absolute stud. The “matchup” isn’t great with Washington’s defense solid against the run, but Hampton can get there in a variety of ways and his talent and role are too much to ignore.
• Breece Hall – In a week with value all over the place, ceiling means something. We know Breece has the talent to post 35-point games and this matchup is too ripe to ignore. The absence of Braelon Allen raises his touchdown equity.
• De’Von Achane – Achane’s role is going to be huge and he is still one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. Carolina’s run defense is better this year than it was in 2024, but it is still not one to avoid.
• Rico Dowdle – Dowdle is incredibly cheap for the massive role he is likely stepping into in an above-average matchup. Dowdle is trusted as a receiver and pass protector and head coach Dave Canales has been churning out backfield production for the last couple of years.

For The MME Crowd ::

• Rachaad White – White’s role and history as a pass catcher make him relatively appealing. Only $4,700 with paths to racking up a few catches and falling into the end zone, an 18 to 22-point game isn’t hard to imagine. 
• Jonathan Taylor – Early in the week, JT wasn’t someone I was thinking I would use this week. As value has continued to open up, however, his ability to drop a 30-point game is too much to leave out of my MME builds.
• Michael Carter – At only $4,000 and in a great matchup, Carter deserves consideration as the potential lead back for Arizona. I really like playing him *with* Kyler Murray, as the Cardinals could score four or five TDs this week and Carter appears set for the James Conner early down role.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Threading the Needle

I keep finding myself clicking Justin Fields, Garrett Wilson, Javonte Williams, and De’Von Achane — and man, it feels gross. That much chalk makes my large-field, GPP-degen soul itch. But some chalk is chalk for a reason, and fading it just to be different is how you end up being uniquely wrong. The real move this week is to ride with the best plays and build rosters that still give us a shot at the top. So let’s mix in a few pivots, lean into some overlooked angles, and see if we can thread that needle between smart and sneaky.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling minis that unlock upside and correlation. Here are three I’m building around this week:

Ja’Marr Chase + Jameson Williams

Most assume Detroit steamrolls Cincinnati, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs handling most of the production. But Chase is still that dude, and if the Bengals can put up some semblance of a fight, that could unlock the Lions desire to hunt for big plays. Enter Jameson. Pairing him with Chase is a cheap way to bet on a back-and-forth script and unlock ceiling while the field plays it safe. 

Chase (8.7%), Williams (5.6%)

DeVonta Smith + Troy Franklin

Franklin has been emerging, averaging seven opportunities per game as he carves out a real role in Denver’s offense. If the Broncos can force Jalen Hurts into a pass-heavy script, Smith is the Eagles receiver most likely to see clean looks without Patrick Surtain draped all over him. I’ll still have some A.J. Brown exposure, but this pairing is a cheaper, lower-owned way to capture ceiling if the game tilts through the air. Smith and Jameson above also double as strong price pivots, coming in just below oft-clicked names like Chris Olave, Michael Pittman, and Jaylen Waddle.

Smith (4.0%), Franklin (3.4%)

Mason Taylor + Jalen Tolbert

OK, OK, OK — I know this looks pukey at first glance, but hear me out. This is the game of the week: Dallas scores in bunches and defends like they’re allergic to tackling, but touchdown variance is a thing. Tolbert has quietly seen six targets in back-to-back games, including two in the red zone. KaVontae Turpin’s absence could open the door for even more work. Pairing him with Taylor is a sneaky way to stay invested in the slate’s most popular game without paying the premium everyone else will. I like them in game stacks, but each is also cheap enough to help your roster without necessarily bringing Justin Fields or Dak Prescott with them.

Taylor (2.9%), Tolbert (2.0%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.

Picking Games

Week 5 has six games that pique my interest:

• NYJ/DAL (48)
• IND/LV (48)
• WAS/LAC (47.5)
• MIA/CAR (44.5)
• NYG/NO (42)
• DET/CIN (49.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Cowboys @ Jets

This is my favorite game environment of the week. Dallas has been smashed (32^nd in DVOA) through the air, and the Jets (30^th in DVOA) haven’t been much better. Justin Fields ($5,600) continues to be priced like we are playing real football instead of fantasy football. Fields is not a good real-life QB, but he scored 28 & 30 DK points in the two games he’s finished. He hasn’t looked awful as a passer, throwing for over 200 yards and completing over 70% of his passes in both of his full games. Of course, it’s the 129 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns that move the needle for him, but that has always been Field’s game. I’m going to play Fields on my main lineup this week and pair him with either Breece Hall ($5,600), Garrett Wilson ($6,100), or Mason Taylor ($2,800), all of whom are too cheap and are benefiting from the Primetime game pricing discount. The Cowboys are just as easy to stack. Dak Prescott ($6,000), Javonte Williams ($6,200), George Pickens ($6,600), and Jake Ferguson ($4,800) can be stacked in any combination. I’m currently looking at Fields + Wilson + Hall + Ferguson as the start of my main build. All the primary offensive pieces on both sides are in play. 

Raiders @ Colts

It’s Week 5, Daniel Jones ($5,800) is the Colts QB, and they have a top five team total on the week. Things are just as we all envisioned at the start of the season. Michael Pittman ($5,100) has been a solid WR1 and is underpriced for his role. He isn’t likely to break the slate, but he has a strong chance of posting a good price considered score (assuming his hammy isn’t a big deal). Jonathan Taylor ($8,000) is the most expensive player on the slate. He barely leaves the field and is playing on a home favorite. He can be used in any lineup. Why hasn’t Tyler Warren ($4,700) seen a price increase? He’s been priced between $4,400 and $4,700 all year despite significantly outperforming his start of the year expectations. I’m going to keep using him until he’s more expensive. I prefer the Colts side, but Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) continues to be a value relative to his expected target volume. I’m going to use Colts players throughout my lineups, with one of my tighter builds dedicated to stacking this game.

Commanders @ Chargers

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 5 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Weekend At Bernie’s

3. Block Parties

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

Ohhhhhh, man. I mean, I’m certainly one who preaches that “every slate is unique,” and I have a blast each week sorting through and highlighting what makes a particular slate unique. But this one is especially unique, and I’m not sure if I can remember a recent slate quite like it.

There is plenty that we could pick out here, but to me, we have to start with the fact that there is one key decision point at quarterback, and that decision point could break pretty clearly all the way to the upside or all the way to the downside. Justin Fields has 28+ DK points in two of his three starts this year, and he’s playing what has been an all-time bad pass defense to start the year. On top of that, Fields only has one real weapon to throw to, so if he hits, you’re almost certainly getting two spots right. But unlike the Bears years (when Chicago was trying to see if Fields could develop into a well-rounded “QB of the future,” and was therefore willing to call a traditional game), the Jets are essentially doing everything they can to hide Fields. They aren’t calling on him to throw until they absolutely have to…and while Dallas has been great on offense this year, they are not aggressive themselves, which opens a clear pathway to the Cowboys staying conservative with a lead, the Jets staying conservative while trailing, and Fields never getting an opportunity to produce. I don’t have concerns about Fields failing in the matchup, but does the game environment give him an opportunity to produce at all? He could quite literally post a score you had to have or a score that wrecks the huge chunk of the field likely to play him this week.

Okay, so what do we do next in a situation like this? Quite naturally, we like to ask, “IF Fields fails, which QB/stack has the best shot at posting a score that separates from the rest of the field?” And this week, the answer seems to be, “None.” That’s not to say that no QB will post an elite score, but there is no QB we can confidently predict will post such a score.

This also trickles down to pass-catcher positions, where things look really thin this week.

And on top of all of this, we have lots of running backs who look solid this week, including a plethora of running back injuries opening up value…but with no place where we can feel all that excited about spending that salary we’re saving.

Talk about unique!

I have a feeling I’ll be thinking through angles on this slate right up until kickoff.

Xandamere >>

Well, first off, we only have 10 games, which is odd this early in the season, but with extra international games the last couple of seasons, that’s been cutting down the size of the main slate. 

Beyond that, holy running backs Batman. We have several high-end backs in great spots. We have multiple starting backs out (Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, Chuba Hubbard), all of whom have backups priced at extremely cheap levels. And, at least for me, there isn’t a ton to really love at wide receiver, which really pushes us towards 3 RB builds. Which is probably fine, though personally I wouldn’t force it (just keep in mind that people building via projections are going to land VERY heavily on 3 RB builds due to the combination of value and high-end raw projection at the position). 

Hilow >>

This is an interesting slate in that we really have no glaring spots to go with game environment bets, value is opening up at the running back position, and we don’t have a ton of options to pay up for at quarterback (Josh Allen is off the slate while playing on SNF, the Chiefs play Monday, Lamar Jackson is hurt, the Philadelphia offense is broken and they play the suffocating Broncos this week, Jayden Daniels is returning from a two-game absence without his top pass-catcher, and Baker Mayfield is without two offensive linemen and Mike Evans). Not that we can’t consider some of those guys, but the field is unlikely to get up there at a normal rate as far as salary allocation is concerned. That leaves the grouping of Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray as the players that stick out in the middle-to-upper tier of pricing at the position, and none of those options feel particularly great this week. All of that to say, this week has the feel of a wide-open slate, making me most interested in targeted concentration on unique rosters. The thought process there is to load up on more variant spots with an aim at capturing bulk upside.

Mike >>

If everyone is cheap, then no one is cheap. This is the reality of a slate like this where “value” is all over the place due to injuries and other circumstances. The reality is we still need fantasy points and it will be very easy to fall into the trap of chasing too many of these incredibly “value” spots on the same roster. All these values also opened up in a week where there are only ten games, which condenses our player pool, and with only a couple of games that project for very high totals. The true “cost” of a player this week is not just their salary, but the opportunity cost of placing them on a roster and taking up a spot for a player who may have a much higher ceiling outcome. I think people will like playing the “super values” this week and use that excess salary to get the high-end studs on their rosters, which will leave the underpriced mid-tier players who are waiting for breakouts in a great spot to be slate changers.

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2. Weekend At Bernie’s

The Question ::

There are five teams on this week’s main slate who are playing without massive pieces of their offense – the Bengals (Burrow), Giants (Nabers), Dolphins (Tyreek), Ravens (Lamar), and Bucs (Bucky Irving). The Bengals have been playing (kind of) without Burrow for 2+ weeks already, while the Bucs might be able to piece together their backfield without Irving. However, the Giants, Dolphins, and Ravens are likely to be scrambling with different offensive dynamics on short notice. 

Are there any of these teams you have interest in this week? If so, what is your approach to those situations?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

As the NFL season progresses, the unrelenting news cycle pulls us in all kinds of directions. 

Trey Benson is out, Michael Carter is a stud value play.

Bucky Irving won’t suit up, fire up Rachaad White and maybe Sean Tucker.

Chuba Hubbard will sit, Rico Dowdle anyone?

These are all just related to one position in the lead-up this week to Week 5 and on the heels of season-ending injuries to Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill, as well as Lamar Jackson coming out of the lineup and Jayden Daniels coming back in. Not to mention the countless offensive line injuries, defensive player injuries, and sudden mid-season retirements. It’s a lot to handle, and it feels like we have to account for every news bit.

In this week’s Angles email, I talked about the power of “zooming out” and the value it brings to all forms of fantasy football. Recognizing trends as a bigger picture in order to “zoom in” to predict and think through the near-term. This helps us recognize things like when a team had a bad start to the season, and not if, but when they will bounce back (e.g., Chiefs). Or, when a certain player could be deemed a “draft bust” or “old and dusty” over the course of a month, and then they literally prove the contrary in their next game (think Jeanty, Hampton in the first category, Keenan Allen, even Derrick Henry in the second).

It’s this recognition that we all struggle with, but some are better than others. I have no ground to stand on to say I can do this with the best of them, but I challenge myself every week to ensure I am thinking about how each week, such as Week 5, will fit into the broader NFL season narrative and journey. 

This week, I am charting that path forward in a few ways. First, the Ravens desperately need this game against the Texans. Sitting at 1-3 and without Lamar Jackson isn’t ideal, but they need this game against Houston if they want any chance at winning a now-less-imposing AFC North division. Second, the Jets and Cowboys come into their matchup at opposite ends of the riding high and feeling low spectrum, so there’s probably some sort of balance that will be achieved by Sunday night (Jets raised slightly, Dallas lowered slightly). Again, not guaranteed, I’m just preparing for it. Another one is the Colts and Raiders, which brings two teams together trying to change their narratives – the Colts as real contenders and the Raiders as non-celler dwellers in the AFC. Lastly, are the Eagles going to go undefeated in 2025? Probably not. Can the west-to-east traveling Broncos be the team to humble them? If that happens, and the Lions dominate the Bengals, what team will ESPN show as the NFC favorite come Monday morning?

I can go on and on, but it’s important to try to see these larger factors at play, as sometimes, just sometimes, they can help us predict what will happen when human beings play human beings on Sunday.

Derrick Henry + Zay Flowers

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 5 Overview

Once again, we have a four game slate that features some of the more appealing spots from the main slate. This week’s main slate is also smaller at only ten games, which means that the “Afternoon Only” slate accounts for 40% of the main slate. This is relevant mainly in terms of how the spots will be perceived by those firing entries into the afternoon slate on a whim later.

There are three key aspects going on with this slate:

1. The Lions and Cardinals are in spots that are terrific on the surface.
2. The way things are set up, we could see the two other games (TB/SEA and WAS/LAC) ending up with high play volume that makes a huge difference on a smaller slate like this. The reason for that is the likelihood of both offenses struggling to run the ball in TB/SEA and the potential for high passing volume and tempo based on the structure of the WAS/LAC offenses.
3. The backfields in Arizona and Tampa Bay have injuries that opened up a ton of value and salary relief.

All of these factors matter for the slate, and there isn’t a direct and actionable step to take from this, but all of the factors must be considered as we are building rosters.

My general thought process is that most rosters will try to hit on all the spots, so if we can ignore at least one of them, that creates a somewhat unique build. Also, the value available at RB will be simply too good for most people to pass up on and open up the roster. If we build lineups without any RBs from TB or ARI, that will instantly become a somewhat unique construction, and the same can be said for building a roster with an RB from BOTH of those teams (probably 70-80% of the field will build a roster using one of them). Finally, there are only three reasonably comfortable tight end options on this week’s slate, and two tight end builds will barely be used. I think using Trey McBride in the flex on Jared Goff rosters with Sam LaPorta or using McBride in the flex on Jayden Daniels rosters with Zach Ertz is an approach that makes a lot of sense and, once again, gives us a very unique construction.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback ::

• Kyler Murray – Arizona is likely to score a lot of points and has a lot of questions around their backfield, which creates a situation where Kyler could account for three or four touchdowns pretty easily. The RBs are also both better as pass catchers than as runners, which further improves Kyler’s situation.
• Justin Herbert // Jayden Daniels – When two young and electric quarterbacks match up with each other, it is a recipe for a game environment to go off.
• Jared Goff // Jake Browning – The Lions are probably going to score a bunch of touchdowns, and Goff can be a big part of that fairly easily. Meanwhile, the Bengals have some elite weapons who can carry Browning to a great fantasy score.
• Dak Prescott // Justin Fields – Dak is playing the best football of his career and faces a Jets defense that ranks 6th against the run but 30th against the pass. Fields is an electric dual-threat QB facing the league’s most generous defense.

Running Back::

• Jahmyr Gibbs // David Montgomery – Detroit’s backfield is almost a “must” for me in every lineup. The matchup is incredibly solid, and the Lions have shown they will keep laying it on. I think you can even justify playing them together.
• Omarion Hampton – Absolute stud. The “matchup” isn’t great with Washington’s defense solid against the run, but Hampton can get there in a variety of ways and his talent and role are too much to ignore.
• Breece Hall – In a week with value all over the place, ceiling means something. We know Breece has the talent to post 35-point games and this matchup is too ripe to ignore. The absence of Braelon Allen raises his touchdown equity.
• Rico Dowdle – Dowdle is incredibly cheap for the massive role he is likely stepping into in an above-average matchup. Dowdle is trusted as a receiver and pass protector and head coach Dave Canales has been churning out backfield production for the last couple of years.
• Ashton Jeanty – A week after his breakout game, Jeanty’s salary barely moved. This isn’t a great on-paper spot, but the talent and role at this price is too much for me to ignore.
• Woody Marks – This is not your father’s Ravens defense. Baltimore is 29th in run defense DVOA and Marks is coming off a breakout game. Houston would be wise to thrust him into a feature back role and he could easily post another great game at a low salary.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Jared Goff + David Montgomery

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• The Week 5 main slate is the smallest of the season to date, with just 10 games due to four teams being on bye and an early morning game in London. After the London game, we’ll have six early kickoffs and four in the late afternoon window.
• There were three significant mid-week RB injury updates that came out after FD pricing was set. These have really changed the dynamics of this slate.
  • Rachaad White ($5,200) is set for an increased workload with Bucky Irving having been ruled out for Tampa’s road game in Seattle.
  • Rico Dowdle ($4,900) takes over the Panthers lead-back duties at home against the Dolphins, while Chuba Hubbard recovers from a calf injury.
  • Michael Carter ($4,000) seems slated for a lead-back/early-down role for the Cardinals as TD favorites at home against the Titans with Trey Benson having been placed on IR.
• How I approach the RB position is the main starting point for me this week as I build out my main SE/3-max rosters. There’s no shortage of RB options to choose from between the mid-week injury updates and several more appropriately-priced options in great spots of their own. While it’s not profound to proclaim that RB is a key position to consider on FanDuel, it’s more about which combinations of backs I’m playing together across my main lineups that will be my focus this week.

Running Back Approach