Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Things change, but some things stay the same. Writing the Angles email for two seasons, I often look back at past weeks for inspiration. This week, it hit me—Week 4 is evergreen.

If you don’t believe me, here’s a little excerpt from the Angles email in Week 4 of 2024:

Welcome to Week 4. The first official week of the NFL season where we have a representative sample of data to draw from to inform our predictions. It’s a glorious thing.

While there is plenty of season to go and we don’t know yet what to make of most of the teams, three weeks of data can provide actionable insights, which minimizes the unknowns and reduces the variability of our predictions.

Said another way, we’re building lineups with less “guess-work” involved, starting this week. You rarely want to draw a one-game prediction from a seasons-worth of games, and you equally won’t feel great about making a one-game prediction based on just one game. Three to four games is the sweet spot, which makes Week 4 so appealing to me. 

With this piece of information, you’d think my next sentence would be something along the lines of “trust the data this week,” and it is sort of along those lines, but not exactly. I’ll explain.

I’ve read about, and often written about, how it’s lazy to use the past to predict the future. And it is, because the cause and effect of the variables that produced past outcomes were different, and therefore not the same as what we’re analyzing for the future. 

Word for word, not a lie was told. This is the week in the NFL season where things take a turn out of the preseason hype/early season flukes and into the sustained success from real roles, real performances, and real strategies. Money will be made in the next few weeks for those sharp enough to see it.  

This is the week to go with what you’ve seen and prepare for what you haven’t seen (but know you will at some point; i.e., regression!).

DFS Week Pass: Got a Dollar?

In case you have been waiting for an invitation to jump into a DFS package with OWS, wait no more. OWS is making the DFS content this week available for $1 (normally $29).

While I’d love it personally if you kept reading, I won’t take it personally if you open a new tab right now to make this happen. 

Here’s what that dollar will get you this week:

• All DFS+ Interpretations
• All Showdowns
• All Ownership and Projections
• JM’s Journal
• JM’s Player Grid
• Willing to Lose (hey, I know that author!)
• Mike’s DK Player Grid
• Mike’s FD Player Grid
• End Around
• Papy’s Pieces
• Sonic’s MME Pool

I’m not sure what that per word cost looks like, but let’s just say this is good ROI. 

Okay, back to Week 4…

Week 4: The Week Where Everyone Acts Like They Know Everything

In Week 1, we all admit out loud that we don’t know anything. By Week 2, we say “hey, make sure not to overreact to one-game outcomes!” Week 3 it starts to come together, and it’s all about being early on trends at both team and individual levels. Enter Week 4, where we now are confident we know a lot more, because we have nearly a month’s worth of stats to prove it.

To be clear, we’re all in this together. I’ll come off as overconfident as the next guy this week, but just realize that it is simply that. We could take nearly any advanced stat and mention why it will continue or regress to a longer-term mean and we’d be right in both cases. We don’t know what all of these teams will look like in two more games when the calendar hits October, but Week 4 is where we’ll start to plan for that.

The Heavy Favorites and the Late Games

As the Angles email is intended to give the highest-level overview of this main slate, let’s start with a few filters we can place on this 11-gamer on Sunday: starting with two big, home favorites (Bills and Lions) and then tackling the four late games.

I say this for two reasons. First, the two highest implied totals on the week belong to the Bills and Lions, who both play in the first wave of games on Sunday. Second, because all of the teams projected to score 20 points or less will also lace them up in the early window (Titans, Saints, Browns, Panthers, Giants, Bucs). 

If you’re looking to start with game environments, which we always should be, these matchup facts isolate the four late games as the likeliest to be close and potentially shoot out. This isn’t everything, but framing it up in this way is a good starting point.

Bills (31) host the Saints (16.25), who couldn’t quite bring the lumber when they traveled out to Seattle last week. Spencer Rattler still has not won a game in his career (0-9) despite his 4:1 TD:INT ratio this season. You won’t find a large crowd this week among those willing to stack this game up after the Saints didn’t get off the plane last Sunday, so the question in this matchup is really how will Josh Allen and the Bills score points, not if. Buffalo did struggle at home vs. lowly Miami in a game they should have dominated. If they struggle to pull away from New Orleans this week we’ll see some interesting Bills narratives form. The more likely outcome is a vintage Josh Allen performance as these teams settle in a bit more to their expected mid-season form.

Lions (27) host the Browns (17) with both of these teams coming out of emotional victories in Week 3. Detroit was humming on offense for the second week in a row, but as was Green Bay before they endured a stunning loss to Cleveland last week. The Lions’ total seems higher than what we’d expect with the way the Browns defense is performing, so at least Vegas thinks Detroit will put up more on the scoreboard than the Packers did. For Cleveland, it feels like this is make or break for Joe Flacco, as he hasn’t looked great to start the season; but, he has kept them competitive, and in his words, has them playing “adult football.”

Colts (23) at Rams (26.5) is one of our late-afternoon delights this week, and this is a matchup that seems to be getting attention in the fantasy football world early on. Angry Rams will be an interesting one to see when you get this talented team coming off a devastating loss against a team they would’ve loved to beat (Philly). Indianapolis, of course, is undefeated and 3.5-point underdogs. Think that will rile them up?

Jags (22) at 49ers (25) carries a 47 total, which sounds appetizing. Then you remember it’s Trevor Lawrence and likely coming-back-from-injury Brock Purdy, and it’s a bit of a wet blanket. The offensive minds calling plays are talented here, and assuming the early-week injury woes to certain skill players (Pearsall, BTJ) don’t get worse, the talent on the field could help this erupt. I do remember getting excited for a game like this (Lawrence vs. Purdy) in November 2023 and it went San Francisco 34-3. Just saying…

Baltimore (25.5) at the Chiefs (23) will drive TV ratings but will it drive fantasy results? Lamar is just 1-4 against KC in his career, though he did rush for over 100 yards last season in this same matchup with Derrick Henry flanking him in the backfield. Kansas City hasn’t looked quite right, but maybe the potential return of Xavier Worthy steadies the offensive roles a bit. One thing is certain, the Ravens will want to wash out the Detroit loss on MNF out as quickly as possible.

Finally, the Bears (23.75) and the Raiders (23.75) will play in Las Vegas as the other late-afternoon game. Ownership could stay modest here but we saw last week the Chicago offense finally get a matchup they can win with Dallas’ defense, so it’s fair to wonder how they will do against a similarly inept Raiders group. Geno Smith, on the other hand, enjoyed garbage time last week in Washington but hasn’t shown much consistency yet. New team, new HC, new OC, and hobbled stud tight end could all be contributing. Could this be the week he gets right?

You have to start somewhere, and these four games plus the Bills and Lions seem to be where points will come from. There are always going to be more angles to play, and some other notable matchups will include the Chargers // Giants, Commanders // Falcons, and Eagles // Buccaneers. 

Start where you want, but use this season’s data and stay humble about predictions.

And go get your one-week DFS pass to help craft your vision for the week. 

We’ll all be excited to see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

I started digging into the slate a bit last night, and the first thing that stood out to me was the QB setups // matchups, so we’ll start there, going game by game and allowing thoughts to flow.

WAS // ATL ::

I’ll save thoughts on Washington till we know who is playing.

After watching the Falcons’ game from this last week, I recorded a voice note that went something like this: “First off, the Falcons looked like they didn’t show up to play against the Panthers. They looked disconnected and sloppy, and Penix looked not fully engaged. But then, also, Penix looks not too different from Tua. It makes me wonder how much the excitement and perception around him matches the reality. He has a fine arm, but there’s been talk about how much the ball zips out of his hand, and it just doesn’t look like that to me. And obviously, they’re both left-handed, and I watched these games back-to-back; but just his movement, the checkdowns he’s taking. He had these checkdowns with clear opportunity to jump the route because he was just slinging the ball into the flat kind of lazily.”

There was more I recorded, but that’s the bulk of what I was getting at in my notes to myself. Again: it looked like the Falcons didn’t totally show up to play, and we can feel confident that won’t be the case against Washington; but between the lack of creativity in this offense, the lack of separation from Falcons pass catchers not named Mooney, the willingness to too quickly abandon the run, and Penix himself, I’m not high on this offense at the moment.

At the same time, Penix is cheap this week ($5.1k), and he’s the kind of player, in the kind of offense, that can get things on track and put up a big game — and if the public is down on this offense, there is definite EV in this play, especially in large-field tourneys.

The health of Jayden Daniels probably makes a notable difference here, as the Commanders are less likely to force the Falcons into the type of posture that would lead to a big game from their passing attack if Mariota is under center. I don’t think the Falcons are tremendous on defense, but I do think they’re solid (and possibly even good). Lots to still wait out and sort through in this one.

NO // BUF ::

Easy pickings for Josh Allen here. The Saints shouldn’t be judged by their trip to Seattle. The crowd noise very clearly got to the offense early, and they were in a deep hole against a team that had all the answers for them. They looked like a much tougher unit vs the Cardinals and 49ers. But “tough” isn’t the same as “good,” and Josh Allen — especially at home — against a team that isn’t good on defense, is not a recipe for that team to suddenly look good. Of course, the issue with Allen is opportunity. As we know, Allen had 25 or fewer DK points in 11 of 16 regular season games played last year (six games under 21.0), which isn’t what we’re looking for at his salary; and the common denominator in most of his games north of 25 was the effectiveness of the opposing offense :: the Cardinals scored 28 and forced Allen into comeback mode in Week 1 of last year // the Rams pushed Allen to a 42-44 score // the Lions scored 42 and Allen led the Bills to 48. Only in blowout wins over the 49ers and Jags did Allen top 25 without being pushed…and against the 49ers he threw for under 150 yards while contributing three touchdowns to put up 28.4. The game against the Jags, then (30.9 DK points), was the only time he put up a score that was really useful at his Week 4 salary without getting pushed— and that came on the back of a four-touchdown game through the air (263 passing yards; 44 rushing yards). The chances of Allen putting up a score you “couldn’t win without” in this spot are very low.

On the other side of this game, Rattler has looked surprisingly above-average, and the Bills aren’t “good” on defense. That said, Buffalo is good at using scheme and gameplan to take away what an opponent wants to do. You’re the Dolphins, and you want to throw downfield over the middle? Okay — you have to win a different way. What’s interesting is that the Saints want to win with the quick passing game, which isn’t something a team like the Bills would usually “scheme to take away.” The old Belichick approach was, “If you make a team put together 12-14 play drives over and over again, they will rarely be able to do it.” There will be a holding penalty, a dropped pass, a sack — something that puts them behind on a set of downs and ultimately wrecks their drive. That’s similar to McDermott’s default stance, and the Saints are essentially attacking games that way. Last week vs Seattle, the Saints’ first drive was derailed by a third-down drop (followed by a failed fourth down conversion). Their second drive was derailed by a false start on a fourth down sneak. Their third drive started with a false start, then there was a second false start two plays later, then there was a holding call after that, another holding call a couple plays after that, and a blocked punt to end it. I could keep going, but you get the point: new-look offense, on the road, playing a good team, making mistakes that kill themselves.

In the vast (vast) majority of timelines on which this game is played, the Saints can’t overcome this setup enough to push Allen into a tourney-winning performance, but there are timelines on which the Saints handle the Buffalo crowd better than they did the Seattle crowd and ultimately produce a solid offensive showing (two or three touchdowns). If those scores come through the air — on top of the heavy volume Olave and Juwan Johnson, in particular, are seeing — we could see Rattler stacks make a difference this week (price considered). Something like 225 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing?) is not “likely,” but it is completely within the realm of reasonable possibilities. That’s 26 DK points, with a clear understanding, on our end, of where the volume is flowing through the air, and where those touchdowns are likeliest to come from.

I actually expected these QB writeups to be MUCH shorter, because my point in all of this is that there isn’t a ton that really pops at the position (which could also, ultimately, mean there isn’t a ton that pops at pass catcher positions either) — and in that context, I do actually think Rattler can be viably kept in consideration this week.

CLE // DET ::

And here’s a chance for a shorter writeup…

So here’s what was so cool about the Lions’ game against the Ravens in Week 3 :: every time Lamar tried to run, he had nowhere to go. This is tremendously difficult to achieve, and it’s a credit to Kelvin Sheppard’s gameplanning that he was able to take away the open pass catchers the Ravens are always able to scheme up while getting enough pressure to speed up Lamar’s clock but also finding a way to close off his rushing lanes and make sure his legs were always accounted for. Roll that over to this week, and it just seems likely, to me, that the Lions will be able to come up with a gameplan to trip up the Browns’ offense.

Swinging over to the Lions’ side, then :: the goal is to win the game. We know the Lions want to exert dominance // break an opponent’s will // keep their foot on the neck of their opponent when they can; but also, in a spot like this — against a defense this great and an offense this low-powered — it would make sense for the Lions to play this as more of a chess match, removing all opportunities for mistakes and taking control of the game as it develops. Said differently: the opportunity for a Goff blowup looks slim.

I do think the strategy of “always play the angle of the Lions putting up a ton of points” is viable with a sliver of large-field entries; but it’s tough to make the logical case for that one here.

TEN // HOU ::

Not only does Houston rival the Titans as the most conservative offense in the NFL (in terms of plays called on long down-and-distances, fourth-and-short aggressiveness, etc.), but they also, quite genuinely, look like one of the worst offenses in the NFL. I took notes on each play and gave a grade to every drive from 14 different teams this last week, and Houston earned my lowest overall grade (average of all their drives) by a pretty wide margin (D+, 69.5; the Bengals were next-worst at 74.1, bunched up with eight teams in the 74-79 range).

In a non-loud Jacksonville stadium, these were some of the Texans’ drives:

• Dropped pass // sack // third-and-long run
• Run // hurried throw // WR screen // punt from midfield on fourth and 1
• Penalty // short pass // incompletion with Stroud falling down // third and long run with another penalty
• Offensive facemask // WR screen on first and 25 // run on second and 22 // sack // bad punt

Nico Collins remains playable, because A) he’s really good, and B) C.J. Stroud (in spite of looking lost behind this horrible offensive line in this poorly-schemed and poorly-called offense) can still get him the ball on occasion; but I don’t think anything else in this offense can find its way onto my rosters at the moment. Is it possible the entire turnaround comes in the span of one week? Sure. But I’ll personally wait until I see signs of things starting to get better — knowing that most of the time, these signs come before a true turnaround takes place.

On the other side, we have the still-awesome Texans D taking on an overwhelmed rookie in Cam Ward who is in a terrible situation with a scheme that is doing him zero favors and a head coach who is trying to save his job by giving up play-calling duties (which…you know, if you were hired as a head coach from the offensive side of the ball, is never really a good sign).

CAR // NE ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This is another clumped-up slate, with all but one game currently sitting with a game total between 43.5 and 49.5. Within that spread is a clear bias towards the latter part of the slate, where four of the top five highest game total games reside. Also of interest is the fact that all but two of the earlier games have spreads north of 5.5 points, with Vegas expecting most of them to be lopsided affairs. We have two rookie running backs in clear lead-to-workhorse situations in Omarion Hampton and Cam Skattebo, a running back in Christian McCaffrey that leads the league in XFP/G by a mile, and a wide receiver in Puka Nacua that projects substantially better than any other play at the position. From a macro perspective, we should expect heavy ownership on CMC, Nacua, and the “rookies with the backfields largely to themselves,” with a focus of ownership on the four late games (Jaguars @ 49ers, Colts @ Rams, Ravens @ Chiefs, and Bears @ Raiders).

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

PUkA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Nacua is averaging 26.6 DK points per game on an average of 11.7 targets per game as the primary option through the air for a highly concentrated Rams offense. He has scored 25.8 DK points or more and seen nine or more targets in all three games this season. We can’t really poke holes in any of that. He makes a strong on-paper play in the game with the highest game total in Week 4. It feels counterintuitive to say that Nacua is underpriced as the slate’s highest-priced receiver, but I would not be shocked to look back in a few weeks and think, “man, remember when we could play Nacua for under $8,000?”

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Starting to sound like a broken record here, but McCaffrey leads the league in XFP/G (28.3, which went up from his mark entering Week 3 – the next closest running back is Jonathan Taylor at 21.1, and the next closest skill position player is Chris Olave at 21.6). He has averaged 10.7 targets per game and 17.3 carries per game through three weeks. The only reason CMC won’t carry 50%+ ownership is that he’s scored only one touchdown so far, something that is not likely to hold moving forward, considering his elite workload. We could be headed towards another season where McCaffrey finds himself priced at $9,500 or more in a few weeks.

JAKOBI MEYERS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Meyers does not have elite metrics through three weeks, carrying 0.21 TPRR , a 24.0% air yards share, 1.98 YPRR, and 0.37 XFP/RR. He went over 100 yards three times, scored four touchdowns, and did both in the same game once in 2024. Furthermore, his 10.3 aDOT from 2024 has come down to 9.8 through three games. I’m more than comfy fading that profile at high ownership.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

• Daniel Jones enters Week 4 as QB4 in DraftKings scoring, averaging 23.7 FP/g. He ranks 10th in QB Accuracy Rating (71.6%), which measures whether the throw was on target regardless of the catch. This comes after finishing 36th in 2024 with the Giants (64%). A big reason for the resurgence is offensive line play. Jones has been pressured on just 24.5% of his dropbacks (9th lowest) compared to last year in NYG, where he faced pressure on 34% of dropbacks (7th highest). That protection has allowed him to average 9.51 adjusted yards per attempt (ANY/A, 1st), which has him at .76 fantasy points per dropback, a 110% increase from his production last season with the Giants. 

• Jared Goff is back at home (22.7 FP/g in 2024) after another strong start in BAL, where his RBs took most of the scoring opportunities (202-1-0, 71% completion rate). This week, he faces 2025’s ultimate pass funnel defense, with CLE allowing 72% of yards through the air while holding opponents to just 2.18 yards per carry, even after matchups with GB and BAL. That should push DET toward a higher neutral pass rate, and while there is always some blowout risk (DET is laying 10 points), we have seen Dan Campbell run up the score at home, as he did in Week 2. CLE plays man coverage at the highest rate, and Goff ranks 1st in passer rating vs man (135.8) after leading the league in 2024 (122.1). He and his WRs are projected to be 1% (Goff & Jameson Williams) to 10% owned (Amon-Ra St. Brown). 

• Michael Penix and the 2025 ATL offense (outside of Bijan Robinson) have been awful (.21 points per play is dead last). So bad, it makes Bijan’s 22 FG/g average even more impressive. While at the same time, their defense has played very well, making their games extremely unfriendly for DFS (averaging a combined 33.7 points per game). It looks like we are in for another gross game for DFS with both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin OUT for WAS, and these defenses 1st (ATL, 51.7%) and 2nd (WAS, 51.9%) in Opponent Completion Rate. All that said, WAS is decimated in the secondary after losing Will Harris (IR). Trey Amos and Percy Butler are also questionable after exiting the game in week 3. This, after allowing Geno Smith 289-3-0 on just 29 pass attempts. 

• Marcus Mariota got a $1K price increase after another strong showing as Daniel’s backup (see last week’s article for more data), but this week sets up much tougher. He faces ATL, which has held QBs to a 64.5 passer rating (2nd) while limiting opponents to just 52.3 plays per game (2nd). Even with the “revenge game” angle, Mariota will find things much more difficult than last week against Las Vegas, especially without Terry McLaurin to stretch the field (ATL allowing a league low 131 passing yards per game). 

RB

• Saquon Barkley’s rushing production over his last four games (including the Super Bowl) has been a tough watch: 83 carries for 251 yards at just 3.02 YPC. His Breakaway Rush % (15+ yard carries) sits at 1.72% after 7.25% in 2024 (3rd). TB has allowed only 3.0 YPC to RBs, fresh off shutting down the Jets backfield last week. One positive for Barkley, and maybe more relevant to the prop market, is his 88% route participation this season (up from 74% in 2024), which has driven a 15% true target share, a 5%+ jump from last year. TB has allowed 11.8 yards per target to RBs this season, giving up the 2nd most receiving yards to the position despite facing only the 15th most targets.

• Since the start of last season, James Cook has played three games with the Bills favored by 8.5+ points. Those games have gone as expected, with Cook averaging 15 carries for 87 yards and a rushing TD per game (20 FP/g on DraftKings). New Orleans hasn’t been bad against the run; they just held SEA to 2.66 YPC last week in a blowout, yet they still rank 5th in fantasy points allowed to RBs. The reason is volume: they let opponents into the red zone often. Last week, SEA converted 5 RZ trips into 4  TDs. With the Bills projected to score a slate-high 31.75 points, Cook is my most rostered player at this point of making lineups. 

• With Tyrone Tracy OUT, Cam Skattebo will be a popular play this week despite the tough matchup (LAC has allowed the 5th fewest FP per game). Last week, he ran a route on 58% of NYG’s dropbacks, catching 6 of 8 targets for 12.1 FP (24.1 overall). Now he gets what should be a QB upgrade in an offense that targets RBs at the 5th highest rate (26.5%). Skattebo has also looked strong as a runner, averaging 3.64 yards after contact compared to Tracy’s 1.68. He ranks 5th in fantasy points per rush attempt and has handled all 8 of the team’s RZ RB carries this season. The matchup doesn’t look great on the surface (fewest rush attempts allowed per game), but that’s more about volume and game script than a true shutdown front. JK Dobbins just went 11-83-1 on them last week.

WR

• Puka Nacua has run 45% of his routes from the slot, which means (with Kenny Moore Jr. OUT) he will see plenty of Mekhi Blackmon, a third round JAG coming off a torn ACL. Puka holds a clear height, weight, and talent advantage over the backup slot CB. The Colts have played man coverage on 25% of snaps, a number that will likely dip this week without Moore. Puka ranks 3rd among qualified WRs in yards per route run vs zone coverage this season (5.14 YPRR vs zone) after finishing 1st in 2024 (3.23 YPRR vs zone). Beyond the plus matchup, the Rams could also be without Davante Adams. Adams leads the team with eight end zone targets, while Puka has yet to see one. I would actually prefer Adams to play for the overall upside of the game, but if he is out, you have to assume those end zone looks funnel to Puka, pushing his already absurd ceiling into another stratosphere. It might sound crazy to say the WR1 in fantasy has untapped upside, but when you are averaging 26.5 DK points per game without a touchdown, it is hard to argue otherwise.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 2.64 yards per route run against man coverage last season (13th) and 4.03 YPRR vs man coverage this season (2nd).  As discussed in the Goff section, CLE has played the highest man coverage rate this season and likes to blitz, which should give ASB and Jameson Williams opportunities for big plays. 

• Despite seeing shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain last week on over 80% of his routes, Quentin Johnston still produced a solid 6-89-0 line on 10 targets. He now leads the Chargers in first-read target share, running a route on 92% of their dropbacks. His 5 red zone targets are tied with Keenan Allen (while Ladd McConkey has just 1). With this elite efficiency and usage (12th in Dominator Rating, which combines a player’s % of team receiving yards and TD%), I expected the public to be all over QJ,  given recency bias and his matchup with the Giants (2nd most passing yards and FP allowed to WRs). Instead, Johnston is projected at just 10–15% ownership, which makes him a core piece in many of my lineups.

Bonus Coverage: Sunday Night Football 

• Matthew Golden believes he is ready to break out, and it’s hard to argue given this “generational” matchup with the Cowboys’ secondary. Per @UnderdogNFL: “I know it’s bound to happen. I’m not pressing, but I know whenever it does happen, it’s going to boost your confidence … I know whenever I get the opportunity, I’m going to take off with it.” Dallas is allowing 51 DraftKings points per game to WRs. For context, over the past five seasons, the most WR-friendly defense was the 2020 Falcons, who gave up 47 FP/g. CBs Kair Elam and Trevon Diggs have combined to allow 34 FP/g in coverage, more than 16 entire teams have allowed in total. Opponents are completing 71% of passes at 9.0 YPA against them. With Jordan Love throwing deep at the 5th highest rate and Dallas giving up the most 15+ yard receptions, Golden (15.6 aDOT) has a real chance to get loose.

TE

• I can’t believe I’m writing this, but with Michael Mayer OUT, it’s time to be all-in on the low(ish)-owned Brock Bowers. Mayer out-snapped Bowers in Week 1, and since then, Bowers usage has trended down. His target share, route participation, and fantasy points per route run have all dipped this season (.33 FP/RR vs .43 in 2024). Chicago just allowed Jake Ferguson to catch 13 of 14 targets last week, giving them an 89% catch rate allowed to TEs on the season. More important is Bowers’ health. He logged a full week of practice for the first time since Week 1, which has me very bullish. 

• Juwan Johnson still isn’t priced in line with his usage and role in this Kellen Moore offense (1st in neutral pace). As a massive road dog again (-15.5), the Saints should be throwing often (2nd in neutral pass rate). The only real risk is game script — if it gets out of hand like last week in SEA, Johnson could lose some 4th-quarter snaps. Among all TEs, Johnson ranks 5th in route participation, 5th in first-read target share, and 4th in overall TE target share. BUF’s recent numbers vs TEs are misleading since they faced MIA and NYJ, two offenses that don’t feature the position. At his low projected ownership (5–7%), Johnson will be in a lot of my (non-Bowers) lineups.

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. Questions or feedback? Reach out on Discord: @bearklaw0

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Caleb Williams
Omarion Hampton
Cam Skattebo
Quentin Johnston
Adonai Mitchell
Jakobi Meyers
Cole Kmet
Rome Odunze
Texans

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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A Note On Week 4

Before we get started…

If you’ve been keeping up with my Journal entries (in Discord) this week, you’ve seen me talk about this already, but I just wanted to lay out a quick note on my own play this week.

William (my six-year-old) has his first go-kart race on Saturday, and while most of these races take place on Sundays, this week’s race is a special night race on Saturday. Against this backdrop, I decided to allocate my full Week 4 bankroll to single-entry/3-max, and didn’t reserve any MME spots when I flew to Oakland this week to reserve my Week 4 entries.

Of course, I always think through the slate in the same way, so MME thoughts are included below; but in my own play, I’m more specifically focused on how I want to build for SE/3-Max…which may not ultimately be relevant information on your end, but it did at least feel worth sharing.

If you’re a Bink Machine user ::

On weeks when I play MME (usually around 10 weeks out of the year), I publish my own Bink Machine rules; and on a lot of weeks when I don’t play MME, I still take the time to build a set of rules for those of you who have gotten used to having those in there. It’s one of those things that I do often enough that it starts to feel like “part of what we get with that subscription,” though it’s technically a bonus that we had built into the optimizer as a cool way to shop through my own rules for any that might fit your play that week. This week, I won’t have time to think through, create, and build out a set of rules, as I won’t get home until late Saturday night, and I’ll need to turn my attention directly to building my SE/3-Max rosters. I’m expecting that we’ll get back to published rules on my end next week.

With that, let’s get started!

Blue Chips

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey (surprise, surprise) has been central to both the offense and the passing attack for the 49ers through three weeks, with receiving DK scores of 16.3 // 17.2 // 18.8 to start the season. He has scored 22.7+ DK points in each game to start the year in spite of scoring only one touchdown.

To be clear: “Blue Chip” doesn’t mean “You have to start your roster with this guy.” When we have high-priced Blue Chips, we’re mostly just establishing that the consistency, floor, and ceiling are all there. But I’ll be happy to find CMC on any roster of mine where he makes the final cut.

Puka Nacua

From what I’ve picked up, it seems one of the industry discussions this week has been, “Is Puka the WR1 the rest of the way?” Here’s what I said in my Journal this week ::

“…with a lower likelihood this week that we see a ton of players putting up huge scores, we could say 26+ is a good target score for Puka to be worth his price tag this week, and it’s looking like it will be fair to say, at minimum, that’s a 30%-of-the-time proposition on this season. (There is a world in which we discover over the next few months that Puka was still a bit underpriced at this point.)”

Same as CMC, he’ll be popular this week; and same as CMC, I’m not saying I “have to start my rosters here.” (His chances of a strong-to-excellent game are high, but his chances of a game that “buries you for not having played him” remain somewhat low.) But also same as CMC, I’ll be happy with Puka any place where he fits.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“It Could Happen”

Drake Maye + Treveyon Henderson

Story:

“Coaches lie”

Why It Works:

Mike Vrabel apparently said on Friday that Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbles won’t impact his role/usage this week. But sometimes, coaches lie…and if Vrabel is lying here, we could see Henderson start this game for the Patriots. Given the matchup on tap, “Henderson starting this game” could easily turn into “Henderson playing well enough that the Pats keep rolling with him.”

Maye will be popular this week, but it’s not easy to successfully guess on the right stacking partner in the Patriots offense. If the Pats had one lead running back, “Maye plus his running back” would be a very sharp way to handle the Pats, as A) this is an offense that involves running backs in the schemed passing attack, and B) this would give you exposure to all the Patriots touchdowns. Of course, we don’t have one lead running back with the Pats…but I don’t mind taking at least one SE/3-Max swing on the possibility of Henderson being that guy this week.

How It Works:

Depending on tourney size, you don’t have to do a ton “differently” once you’ve started with this stack. This should lead to unique salary construction and low-owned upside if it hits, setting you a step ahead of your competition.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“You Can Do It Twice”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Rams Rule

I expect the Rams to do well in a competitive game this week. The Rams have one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL, so if they do well, we know who is going to benefit. In SE/3-Max, I’ll probably end up with a Rams piece on every roster. If I were playing MME this week, I would probably scale that down to 70% of rosters. This rule, then, would look like the picture below (no locked player; so this says, “On 70% of ALL rosters, include at least one, and as many as two, from this pool”).

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Patrick Mahomes (probably with some Lamar trail bets) || Caleb Williams (potentially with some Geno trail bets) || Justin Herbert || Daniel Jones || >>—<< || Drake Maye

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Draftkings Player grid

Running Back ::

• Omarion Hampton – Don’t overthink it. Checks every box (talent/draft profile, volume, game environment, matchup) and is moderately priced. High floor and the potential for him to showcase a previously unseen ceiling. The Giants also have faced relatively mundane rushing offenses so far, and this is the best rushing matchup the Chargers have seen this season.
• Christian McCaffrey – Another easy click, CMC is AVERAGING 11 targets per game. The workload is insane, and at some point, he is going to have a two or three touchdown game, which will make him a must-have on that Sunday.
• Bucky Irving – Irving has at least four targets in every game, scoring just under 10 points per game through his receiving alone. He has yet to score a rushing touchdown or run for over 100 yards, which are both surely to happen at some point. Bucky had 29 opportunities last week as the Bucs need him to move the ball while their wide receivers are dealing with injuries. Finally, the Bucs get All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs back this week, which significantly improves Irving’s outlook.
• Kyren Williams – The Rams have the third-highest team total on the slate behind the Bills and Lions. Kyren is the workhorse RB and is priced in the mid-tier, while facing a defense that is solid but not elite. 
• Jonathan Taylor – This may seem like stat chasing, but I don’t care. The level JT is playing at and his insane usage make him someone we have to consider every week unless it is a special circumstance. Priced as the RB5 and a full $1,000 below CMC, Taylor can drop 30 in any matchup.

For the MME Crowd ::

• James Cook – Almost left him off, but he must at least be mentioned. Cook has over 20 DK points in every game this year and an elite matchup on tap with the Saints. The biggest risk factors here are the chances this game gets out of hand and the always looming potential for Josh Allen to steal a rushing TD or two.
• TreVeyon Henderson – This one will catch people a little off guard, but I think this is the Henderson breakout week. New England is desperate for an offensive spark and he can be that guy. The other two Patriots RBs who have been playing ahead of him fumbled a combined three times last week. Finally, Henderson’s struggles have been in pass protection, but Carolina has a very low blitz rate. All things are lining up for Henderson to be a cheap and explosive option who sees a spike in usage in a great matchup. A GPP delight.
• Cam Skattebo – The Giants offense needs a spark and Skattebo can be that guy. He plays with a high level of energy and should be a bell cow with Tyrone Tracy Jr. inactive. His expected role along with his salary, makes him someone we must consider because of what he opens up for the rest of the roster.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Commander Fishface

We come out of hyperspace expecting a quick dogfight and a medal ceremony, and instead, a thousand Rebel pilots piss their flight suits at the sight of an imperial ambush. The field risks a similar fate if too much faith is placed in chalk that’s as fragile as intel gathered by a bunch of Wookiees probably smoking the wild ganja on Kashyyyk.

Ownership tells a story, and this week that story reads more like bad fan fiction than DFS truth. Puka Nacua (33.4%) and Davante Adams (18.2%) are projected as two of the three most popular receivers on the slate — yet Matthew Stafford sits around 5%. Hmmm… something’s gotta give. If both of those guys landed in the 4x territory, Stafford would be projecting for 300 yards and three touchdowns. And this isn’t the pushover Colts secondary we used to pick on, either.

The same contradictions show up elsewhere. Jakobi Meyers (22.6%) and Drake London (17.4%) are being jammed into lineups, but does Michael Penix Jr. really look capable of supporting a “must-have” outcome from a $5,700 receiver? Meyers is a solid bet to hit his median — he usually gives you something — but how often does that translate into a tournament-winning score? Sometimes, sure. But it’s not a wager I’m eager to make when he’s one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. Rookie RBs Cam Skattebo (17.2%) and Omarion Hampton (18.9%) are stepping into workhorse roles, but each has major question marks about matchup or offensive line play.

Even the slate’s ultimate ceiling play comes with a dose of reality. Christian McCaffrey (31.5%) can bury you for not having him — but if he smashes and you do, you’re just another face in a 60,000-lineup conga line. To actually gain ground on the field, you’d need to 2x his exposure, which means dedicating around 100 of your 150 builds just to make a meaningful stand. I’ll still have plenty, but it’ll be a calculated — and often correlated — bet, not a comfort click.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling minis that unlock upside and correlation. Here are three I’m building around this week:

Malik Nabers ($7,000, 11.1%) / Quentin Johnston ($5,500, 9.1%)

Two explosive young wideouts in a sneaky shootout spot. Nabers’ elite YAC ability and Johnston’s vertical pop offer multiple ways this pairing hits.

Nico Collins ($7,400, 10.4%) / Tony Pollard ($5,600, 7.4%)

Pollard’s averaging 20 touches per game over his last three, but DSTs in this matchup are expected to be steamed — making this a beautiful leverage play. If Pollard’s volume continues and Collins capitalizes on Houston’s offensive flow, both can smash while the field clusters elsewhere.

Darnell Mooney ($4,700, 3.2%) / Deebo Samuel ($6,000, 6.1%)

Tre Tucker torched Washington last week, and Mooney brings a similar downfield profile. With Terry McLaurin sidelined, the greatest human in the world — Deebo Samuel — inherits a pile of vacated volume.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single-entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the third slate.

Picking Games

Week 4 has seven games that pique my interest:

• IND/LAR (49.5)
• CHI/LV (48)
• BAL/KC (48.5)
• JAX/SF (46.5)
• LAC/NYG (43.5)
• BUF/NO (48)
• CAR/NE (43.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Colts @ Rams

This game stands atop a slate of good game environments. It’s not head and shoulders above the other games as has been the case with the top game environment the previous two weeks, but it does stand out as the most likely game to create must-have DFS scores. Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) and Puka Nacua ($7,900) are obvious plays on rosters that want to attack this game. Taylor has posted DK scores of 36/32/13, and Puka posted scores of 26/28/26. If we were to redraft right now, Puka/Taylor might be the first two picks. Puka has the feel of a guy amid “one of those years” where he’s almost never going to fail. I’m going to play Puka by himself and as a part of any roster that stacks this game.

Bears @ Raiders

The Bears defense is terrible and their offense is explosive. That combination is going to make their game environments a target all year for DFS. Rome Odunze ($6,300) is still underpriced and will likely finish the season with his price consistently in the low $7,000 range. Caleb Williams ($5,800) is very affordable for his upside in a plus matchup. D’Andre Swift ($5,400) isn’t good at football, but he’s getting the opportunity, and that’s what we care about at running back. Jakobi Meyers ($5,400) is always underpriced for his target projection. Brock Bowers ($5,800) could post his first must-have game with Michael Mayer set to miss. There are a lot of cheap pieces with upside in this game.

Ravens @ Chiefs

This game has the most variance of any game on the slate. KC has not created good game environments for years and it has been my policy to generally avoid their games. It won’t shock me if this game ends up being the dud of the week. That being said, it’s difficult to ignore the upside outcomes. The Ravens are capable of scoring in bunches, and if they jump out to a lead, Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) will try and fight back. If this turns into a Lamar Jackson ($7,500) versus Mahomes gun slinger battle, it could end up being the game of the week. Even in that outcome, it’s not easy to stack, as neither QB has an obvious partner. I’m probably going to stack this game on one of might tighter builds to account for its upside, but I’m still considering fading it as I’ve typically done with Chiefs games.

49ers @ JAguars

Brock Purdy ($6,100) is set to return, which boosts this game environment. Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is finally priced closer to his actual value. His WR1-type target volume makes it difficult for him to fail. Realistically, he should be priced over $9,000, but at least now it’s close. Brian Thomas ($6,100) is seeing plenty of usage but he hasn’t looked right, and none of his targets have turned into fantasy production. He could snap out of it on a moment’s notice, and I still think he’s the best bring-back on rosters that stack the 49ers. This game doesn’t have the same upside as the games above it on this list, but CMC will be a staple play of my lineups, and I’ll likely dedicate one of might tighter builds to predicting this is the game of the week.

Chargers @ Giants

This game is all about the RBs. Omarion Hampton ($5,900) and Cam Skattebo ($5,500) are two of the best plays on the slate. For whatever reason, people hate playing opposing running backs on the same roster. I’m going to “stack” this game by using them together. I’ll also likely dedicate one lineup to a passing game stack. Justin Herbert ($6,300) is throwing the ball more than anyone. Ladd McConkey ($6,500), Quentin Johnston ($5,500), and Keenan Allen ($5,300) are all viable. Allen and Johnston have been eating, but Ladd’s time is coming. Malik Nabers ($7,000) gets his first game with Jaxson Dart ($4,500). It would make sense for Dart to try and establish a rapport with Nabers right away, as two young players who could be teammates for a long time. Nabers is the obvious bring-back with any roster that stacks the Chargers passing attack.

Bills @ Saints

A classic blowout spot, the Bills are big home favorites in a game where we know they will score, but if the Saints can’t fight back, they might not stay aggressive long enough to post big DFS scores. For their part, the Saints are going to try and keep things close. They play at warp speed and are a fun bad team. All bad teams should be the Saints. James Cook ($7,100) is the RB1 overall through the first three weeks and gets a good matchup, at home, as a massive favorite. I’m not sure why his price is still so reasonable. Cook will be a staple RB on my tighter builds. The Saints are going to be losing and creating passing game volume. Chris Olave ($5,100) is seeing heavy target volume but is still priced like a mid-range WR2. Juwan Johnson ($4,200) is in a similar boat to Olave. They both make confident bring-backs on rosters that stack Bills.

Panthers @ Patriots

The Panthers looked like a totally different team last week, but I don’t think their defense is all of a sudden fixed. Drake Maye ($5,500) is good at football and remains one of the most underpriced players on a points per dollar basis. Hunter Henry ($4,000) is his most logical stacking partner along with TreVeyon Henderson ($5,200). Bryce Young ($4,900) is wildly affordable, and pairing him with Tetoria McMillan ($5,900) and Hunter Renfrow ($3,700) costs almost nothing. Either of the above stacks allows you to play anyone else you want on that roster, and both could hit for a high salary multiplier. I don’t feel confident this game will explode, but there is a good chance at least one of the cheap pieces will produce a strong price considered score. 

Key Values

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 4 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Roster Construction: WR

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

Lots of fun stuff on this week’s slate.

First off, pretty quietly, we have all of Lamar // Allen // Mahomes // Hurts // Herbert on this slate (and we nearly had Jayden, too!).

We also have a double dose of “underpriced number two running back stepping into the lead role” — but unusually, both guys are playing in the same game, which should lower combinatorial ownership.

We have an afternoon window that’s full of attractive game environments.

We have some clear funnels — in terms of pricing and structure on the slate — that should push immense ownership toward CMC and Puka (and both are good plays).

We have the Bills and Lions carrying the highest implied team totals on the slate, but both are on teams where it’s sometimes tough to know who will benefit in the box score, and both are in games they are expected to win easily.

And we have the typical “handful of health question marks” that may not be answered until late Saturday night or even (Jauan Jennings) as late as Sunday afternoon.

Buckle up!

Xandamere >>

This is an interesting week because it’s the first week of the season where we have several high total games to choose from and then a few others that could potentially surprise to the upside. Unlike last week, there isn’t just one game that stands head and shoulders above the rest. We have value spots, and we don’t really have a lot of chalk…there are only a handful of plays over 20% projected ownership currently, which means it’s easy to go a lot of different directions. It’s a fun one. 

Hilow >>

The four highest game total games on the slate are in the afternoon, injecting an interesting dynamic to this slate. Expect significant ownership from those games (one excluded, which I’ll talk about around the site in other spots), making it a “PMR”, or projected minutes remaining, slate. We also have two backfields that have devolved into potential workhorse situations due to injury and CMC on the slate as the player leading the league in XFP/G, at any skill position. This is all likely to steer rosters in a similar direction this week, making it another slate where we don’t have to get too crazy to generate meaningful leverage.

Mike >>

As Hilow mentions, the afternoon slate shapes up as a great one and adds layers of dynamics to this. So much focus is always put on “ownership” of individual players, with analysis of the “chalk” and trying to find ways to be different. But we know that chalk is often chalk for a reason and also that across any set of games we often have a certain amount of fantasy points that can and will be scored. There are a lot of really good plays on this slate, but frankly there don’t seem to be a lot of spots where players are likely to put up outlandish scores that “put the slate out of reach” by not having them. What these two dynamics combine to form is the ability for us to build unique rosters simply through roster construction from looking at the two sets of games as separate player pools. Making a roster composed entirely of players from the early games would give you a level of uniqueness because it is so hard psychologically to make a roster and have no one from those last four games that project so well. Likewise, the late games have the highest game totals on the slate and you could make a lineup of players just from those four games with an extremely high ceiling as well. Considering the fact that the early slate of games has so many of the highest projected ownership players (the top three QBs, four of the top six RBs, wide receiver four through eleven, and the top eight defenses), if you simply made a lineup from the afternoon only set of players you would naturally be very unique despite the fact that you are playing all players from the highest projected games.

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2. Roster Construction: WR

The Question ::

The beautiful thing about DFS is how each slate is like its own puzzle and the pieces always look different. Looking at pricing for the Week 4 slate presents us with a situation that becomes a bit interesting to think through. We are only two weeks removed from a slate where a bunch of the high-end wide receivers went off and provided a specific path to optimal, yet on this slate we are in a situation where there are seemingly far less paths to that outcome at the high end. In Week 2, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Malik Nabers went wild against the Bears and Cowboys while Ja’Marr Chase racked up his stats on massive volume playing from behind. Puka Nacua is obviously a great play, but the next four wide receivers in pricing are in iffy spots from a ceiling perspective (especially compared to the guys who broke the slate in Week 2) – ARSB plays the Browns elite defense, Nabers has a new/raw/rookie QB and faces a very good Chargers defense, Nico Collins is working in a struggling offense, and Emeka Egbuka’s salary has risen significantly while he is likely to deal with Quinyon Mitchell’s shadow coverage against the Eagles.

In contrast, at the running back position we can see there are a lot of players in very good spots at various levels of pricing. This makes it so that it is likely that there are multiple ways to stay “on track” at running back and the path to first will be decided by whether a couple of these elite guys can have a spike week that makes them “necessary”, or if they all have modest outputs which in turn results in cheaper wide receivers being the path to optimal.

With all of this in mind, what is your primary approach to the wide receiver position likely to be this week?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

One of the more interesting aspects of Best Ball tournaments is how much money gets tied up in players who could get benched, demoted, traded, or otherwise at any point in the season. Whether you like it or not (because you know, everyone is sharing!), you’ll rarely find a player with the highest exposure being a star player (e.g., first or second round pick). The reason for this is obvious, because we don’t control what pick you are given, so therefore loading up on a player in the first few rounds isn’t an available strategy. The outcome ends up being an attachment of a lot of funds into players picked from say rounds 8 or later, with sometimes the highest ownership levels coming from rounds 17-20 (if Drafters or DK). It’s a scary world out there, but for every poor last-round pick, there’s a Bill Croskey-Merritt. The Best Ball sites don’t market their games with these borderline professional athletes because it wouldn’t sell. But Best Ball players know them well, we can tell you that second-string rookie TE, the castoff 2nd round wide receiver on his third team in five seasons, and the scatback RB who can pile up receptions in the two-minute drill. The point is that these players win tournaments! It’s cool when a CMC, Saquon, Justin Jefferson, or the old Travis Kelce has a huge game on your roster, but it’s these “Best Ball tweeners” who give the leverage needed to win. It likely wasn’t CMC’s score that was the lowest-owned on your roster and catapulted you up the leaderboards. Oh no, no, no…it was actually the CJ Anderson’s, Brock Osweiler’s, Will Fuller’s, or Alge Crumpler’s of the world (told myself I’d work Alge into an article this season!).

THAT is the point of Willing to Lose. I guess there’s an inherent connection to the beauty of Best Ball, but really, the reality in this space every week is that I’m looking to give you the plays that fit the mold of a guy who really could not have a role by the end of the season. Or, he could be someone who is incredibly down, narrative and reputation-wise, at the current moment. Or, this strategy could pop up with two or three players who just don’t seem to fit right together, and may not long-term, but with volume and game environment, this week could be the leverage you need.

If you’ve been reading WTL over the years, you know I lose a lot. Contest selection is my weakest DFS trait (but it’s getting better thanks to StatATL), and I am far too stubborn in some of my thoughts to have adjusted my fundamentals as much as I should. But as we dive in this week, in the week where we all think we know everything, I hope this space will continue to provide a different perspective than anything else you read all week. Godspeed.

C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins + Chigoziem Okonkwo (or Elic Ayomanor)

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 4 Overview

This week’s afternoon slate features the four games with the highest totals on the slate. We have our usual strategy angles involved on this fun four-game slate, but also should consider the following, which I mentioned in one of my Oracle answers:

“The afternoon slate shapes up as a great one and adds layers of dynamics. So much focus is always put on “ownership” of individual players, with analysis of the “chalk” and trying to find ways to be different. But we know that chalk is often chalk for a reason and also that across any set of games we often have a certain amount of fantasy points that can and will be scored. There are a lot of really good plays on this slate, but frankly there don’t seem to be a lot of spots where players are likely to put up outlandish scores that “put the slate out of reach” by not having them. What these two dynamics combine to form is the ability for us to build unique rosters simply through roster construction from looking at the two sets of games as separate player pools. Making a roster composed entirely of players from the early games would give you a level of uniqueness because it is so hard psychologically to make a roster and have no one from those last four games that project so well. Likewise, the late games have the highest game totals on the slate and you could make a lineup of players just from those four games with an extremely high ceiling as well. Considering the fact that the early slate of games has so many of the highest projected ownership players (the top three QBs, four of the top six RBs, wide receiver four through eleven, and the top eight defenses), if you simply made a lineup from the Afternoon Only set of players you would naturally be very unique despite the fact that you are playing all players from the highest projected games.“

TL;DR – Make lineups from this slate and put them in the Main Slate contests.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Adonai Mitchell + Oronde Gadsden

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• The Week 4 main slate has just 11 games due to the early-morning Dublin game and a double-header on Monday Night Football. Of the 11 games available to us, there are seven early kickoffs and four in the afternoon. There are five games this week with implied totals of 47.0 or more points, including the Bills hosting the Saints as whopping 15.5 point favorites, and all four of the later kickoffs:
  • Colts (23.0) at Rams (26.5)
  • Jaguars (22.0) at 49ers (25.0)
  • Ravens (25.5) at Chiefs (23.0)
  • Bears (23.25) at Raiders (24.25)
• The starting point for my SE/3-Max builds this week is simply to be strategic about who I’m playing from the early set of games, and in which combinations, so that I can get plenty of exposure to this set of later kickoffs projected to be the four of the top game environments on this week’s slate.
• In the set of four later kickoffs alone, we are afforded some incredible fantasy options to build rosters around, including:
  • An elite dual-threat QB, Lamar Jackson ($8,700) and all four skill position players priced $9,000+ on this slate (Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry).
  • Some strong WR values who are likely to be heavily rostered by the field: Davante Adams ($7,400), Zay Flowers ($7,400), Rome Odunze ($7,200), and Jakobi Meyers ($6,100).
  • The top two TE plays of the week are Brock Bowers ($6,700) and Tyler Warren ($5,800).

Running Back Approach

Maximus (Steve Kleisath) is a Fanduel focused player who specializes in smaller-field contests under 1,000 entries

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Onguard Week 4!

Pricing is definitely tightening and going up on the strong elite players at the QB, WR, and RB positions in particular. This comes as no surprise as we are almost a quarter of the way into the 2025 NFL season. Crazy how fast it goes! But there is still value to be found and balanced teams to build, so let’s get digging…

QB

Daniel Jones – $7,400

Daniel Jones has thrived in Shane Steichen’s offense with the Colts punting only once in 3 games so far. That is an NFL record! Daniel Jones is the type of QB that has great value on FD as a dual threat with the rushing ability. Now he faces an opportunistic Los Angeles Rams defense that has recorded 12 sacks, tied with the Denver Broncos for most on the year so far. Jones had 25.84 FD points against the Broncos already, which included a rushing TD. That output is more than 3X his salary this week. Add in one of the best RBs in the league in Jonathan Taylor and an offensive line ranked in the top 5 in the league per PFF prior to the season starting, and this could set up for a great real-life and fantasy game for Week 4.

RB

WR

Emeka Egbuka – $7,000

Rookie Emeka Egbuka has had an impressive start to the season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, recording 3 receiving TDs over the course of 3 games (we love Touchdowns, especially on FanDuel). He is averaging 7 targets a game, and now with Mike Evans set to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury and Chris Godwin being eased back in at best for Week 4, the situation sets up for more volume and activity for the 19th overall pick of this year’s NFL Draft. At home against another undefeated team the Philadelphia Eagles, this sets up for a competitive game with concentrated offenses.

TE

Brock Bowers – $6,700

The tight end position on FD is the one position where there is value all the way to the top so far. Let’s take advantage of it while we can, with the possible end-of-season TE1. One more week separated from the minor knee injury he sustained, Brock Bowers and the Raiders are back home against a Chicago Bears secondary that is decimated with injuries. Averaging 7 targets a game, despite the injury, and yet to score a touchdown on the year, the conditions are ripe in this matchup for productivity and TD regression for the talented second-year pro.