Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

The Scroll Week 3

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    The DFS Slate

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    Meet The Team


    Angles

    Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons

    OWS Fam —

    What a week!

    The Binks channel in Discord was popping in Week 2, with OWS pennants all over the tops of the leaderboards (big wins from several of our team members and community members, including comebackzinc turning $19 into over $136,000!).

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    But of course, last week is behind us.

    Good results or bad — good play or bad — what matters now is that we turn the page and focus on the week ahead.

    Playing For First?

    As most of you know, I started using an optimizer for my DFS play around the middle of the 2022 NFL season, after having been a hand-builder (and a limited-entry player) for eight and a half years.

    When I started using an opto, I wasn’t particularly surprised to discover that I was able to blend my understanding of DFS theory with my NFL knowledge to have an expectation of profit over time in large-field play (something any long-time OWS user is probably able to do). But one of the more surprising aspects of my opto usage has been this:

    I’ve been profitable 70% of weekends in single-entry/3-max play since I became an opto user.

    I’ve come up with a number of hypotheses on why this is the case, but earlier this week, in a series of tweets exploring the benefits of optimizer usage, I realized something I hadn’t before.

    I’ll frame it like this:

    If you’ve read hundreds of books, you might be able to identify a great book when you see one, but this doesn’t necessarily mean you can sit down and craft a great book yourself. There are a lot of obstacles in the way between Point A and Point B, and you have to learn how to avoid or overcome them.

    Similarly, you might be able to identify a great DFS roster when you see one, but this doesn’t necessarily mean you can sit down and craft a great DFS roster yourself, week in and week out, without getting in your own way. There are a lot of obstacles in the way between Point A and Point B.

    Given the way I craft my player pool, I’m going to have rosters almost every week — out of my 150 rosters in play — that are finishing in the top 0.5% out of tens of thousands of entries.

    And because I’m selecting my single-entry/3-max rosters from this set of 150 rosters (pulling out the rosters that most stand out to me as “really good DFS rosters”), I’m typically able to identify some of the “best rosters” of the bunch to put into SE/3-max. I.e., I don’t have to sit down and “build great rosters.” I just have to be able to spot great rosters when I see them.

    It’s one of the sharpest ways to increase your chances of +EV play in SE/3-max :: give yourself lots of sharp rosters to look through in order to find the rosters best equipped to shoot for first place in a tourney.

    Note ::

    We’re going to have a video on the OWS YouTube channel by Saturday evening in which I’ll be walking through the way I use the optimizer myself (we’ll have it linked on the Bink Machine page as well); and Caleb’s tutorial (linked at the top of the Bink Machine page) does a tremendous job getting you very comfortable with the tool.

    Gift(?) A Membership ::

    As mentioned on last week’s Angles Pod, we now have an option for Inner Circle members and OWS DFS members to give away a free season of access to OWS. You can find your unique, one-time-use code on your profile page. (Note: the code doesn’t work for anyone who has paid for an OWS membership in the past.)

    The idea here was for you to share OWS with a friend or fantasy league-mate, though as Xandamere mentioned on The Slate podcast on Saturday…you don’t necessarily have to give this away for free, either. If you have a friend who might enjoy using OWS, charge them for a discounted subscription. Sharp angle to play!

    (And while you’re hunting free money, remember :: it’s incredibly sharp to take advantage of the ‘free money’ available if you’re doing pick’ems. Don’t just stay on one site. Soak up the deposit bonuses available on every site. This is massive from an ROI standpoint. Do it, do it, do it! I’ll keep hammering this throughout the season, because if you’re playing pick’ems, this is something you should be taking a few minutes to do. Sign up for additional sites. Spread your play across them. Get as many deposit bonuses as you can.)

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    Week 3 Angles

    Boy, does this week look different from last.

    As we explored in this space last week, we had a number of spots with a solid shot at offensive production in Week 2, giving us “a lot of good games/spots to choose from,” and allowing us to identify which of those “good games/spots” were truly the best.

    This week, we have seven teams that are implied to score more than 25 points (nice!), and we also have explosive offenses in the Bills, Seahawks, and Lions currently sitting at or below this number (also nice!)…but only two of those teams are in a game together.

    Among the others ::

    The Ravens are 7.5 point favorites vs the Colts

    The Jags are 9.5 point favorites vs the Texans

    The Dolphins are 6.5 point favorites vs the Broncos

    The Cowboys are 12.0 point favorites at the Cardinals

    The Chiefs are 12.5 point favorites vs the Bears

    As we’ve seen in the past, it’s certainly possible for big DFS scores to emerge in a blowout win. As Xandamere often points out :: regardless of whether a team scores 30+ points in a blowout or in a close game, that production is still there.

    And this is true.

    But the opportunity for “had to have it” games are lowered when an opponent is not pushing things on the scoreboard, and if another game turns into a “had to have it” game, these blowout-type games are sometimes left in the dust. Furthermore, most of these teams have pieces priced high enough that the “high likelihood of a comfortable win” (and a lot of points) is valuable for the “higher likelihood of solid fantasy points”…but “solid fantasy points” might not be enough given how these expensive players can restrict your rosters elsewhere.

    Paired with this setup, then, we have the Chargers visiting the Vikings, giving us two defenses that have been attackable on the year, and two offenses that are capable of scoring points (including one, in the Vikings, that definitely loves to pass the ball, and another, in the new-look Chargers, that almost certainly wants to pass the ball). Vegas has given this game a hefty Over/Under of 54.0, with both teams currently implied to score 27 points. If this game shakes out with each team scoring right around that range, there might not be much to differentiate these offenses from the ones projected to win in more comfortable fashion. But if this game plays to the higher end of its range, it will be difficult for other games on the slate to compete.

    Missing from this slate, we have the 49ers’ foursome (CMC // Deebo // Aiyuk // Kittle), the Raiders’ power duo (Davante // Jacobs), the elite upside of the Eagles and Bengals, and the unique upside of the Rams. However, this is a unique “12-game Main Slate” in that we’re only missing a couple of elite DFS quarterbacks, in Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.

    Put it all together, and this sets up as a slate with A LOT of ways it can play out.

    That said :: there are some unique setups, with quite a few higher-priced pieces likelier to have “solid” games than “had-to-have-it” games, alongside a number of mid-priced players capable of putting up big games.

    It’s a very unique puzzle, indeed — one that we’ll spend the rest of the week working to figure out.

    That does it for now.

    I’l see you on the site throughout the weekend.

    Hopefully I’ll see you getting into the Bink Machine.

    And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

    The Workbook

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    Around The Industry

    Introduced in 2023, ‘Around The Industry’ provides a snapshot of sentiments from respected voices in the DFS and fantasy spaces.

    NOTE 1: Contributors’ scores are tallied each week, with a cash prize going to the leader at the end of the season

    NOTE 2: Full-PPR scoring

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW ::

    The glaring truth about this slate is that we have one game that stands head and shoulders above the rest as far as the expected game environment goes: Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings. That piece of the pie is not going overlooked on this slate, I can promise you that much. Everywhere you look around the industry, new angles and stats pop up to hype this game up. But the two teams in this game are two of SEVEN that are projected to score around or more than four touchdowns on this slate, and we’re seeing very sparse ownership rates amongst the remaining five teams in that discussion. The seven teams with Vegas implied team totals approaching or surpassing four touchdowns are as follows:

    • Ravens – 26
    • Jaguars – 26.25
    • Chargers – 26.5
    • Dolphins – 27.25
    • Vikings – 27.5
    • Cowboys – 27.75
    • Chiefs – 30.25

    Interpret that data from a different angle and we could say that there are two teams on this slate that are projected to be more effective offensively than both teams in the game with the highest game total (and most interest from the field). And yes, the fact that two teams from this list are playing each other, in a dome, adds to the percentage chance of the game going over its lofty game total, but it does not minimize the chances of another offense outscoring the Chargers and Vikings. There’s an extremely nuanced discussion to be had there, one that we will fully dive into on The Slate podcast on Saturday. But with that realization in the light of the entire slate, we have to realize that we have a slate with many different offenses that are expected to score points, which is likely to increase the score it will take to take down GPPs this weekend.

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    Quick explanation: restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

    MIKE WILLIAMS

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. There aren’t a ton of negatives I can bring up regarding any of the primary skill position players in this game outside of the obligatory game theoretic potential to explore unique ways to play them. Mike Williams currently sports solid underlying metrics including a 25.7 percent team target market share, 27.3 targets per route run rate, 11.2 aDOT, and 35.5 percent slot snap rate. The Chargers have become one of the most concentrated offenses in the league, with primary production flowing through Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler. Joshua Kelley isn’t on the same level as a guy like Ekeler through the air, further condensing the expected flow of targets in this offense.

    ZACK MOSS

    EXPANSIVE CHALK. The workload should be there for Zack Moss after he saw an insane 98 percent snap rate and 100 percent of the team’s available running back opportunities in Week 2. The problem is he goes from a plus matchup against the porous run defense of the Texans to one of the tougher matchups on the ground against the stout run defense of the Ravens. The Colts carry a Vegas implied team total of just 18 points on the road and are currently instilled as eight-point underdogs. There are three things that I typically utilize to evaluate running backs: talent, matchup, and opportunity. Moss checks one (maybe one and a half) of those boxes this week.

    JUSTIN JEFFERSON

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. There aren’t a ton of negatives I can bring up regarding any of the primary skill position players in this game outside of the obligatory game theoretic potential to explore unique ways to play them. Justin Jefferson is the top wide receiver in the NFL playing in the game with the highest game total to this point in the season. There isn’t additional analysis that needs to be had.

    TONY POLLARD

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Tony Pollard has provided everything that we wanted to see when we were drafting him in the second round of Best Ball drafts this offseason. He leads the league in weighted opportunities and red zone opportunities, and he ranks third amongst running backs in team target market share and second in targets. The game script has largely kept his workload in check through two weeks, but what if he runs into a more neutral game script? Talent – check. Opportunity – check. Matchup – check. He’s going to be popular, but there are some interesting ways to play him that the field will largely not be getting to this weekend.

    JOSHUA KELLEY

    EXPANSIVE CHALK. There aren’t a ton of negatives I can bring up regarding any of the primary skill position players in this game outside of the obligatory game theoretic potential to explore unique ways to play them. Joshua Kelley is not going to command the same level of pass game usage as a guy like Austin Ekeler, but he plays for one of the top offenses in the league in the highest game total of the season and carries legitimate paths to 100/2 on the ground. Talent – check. Opportunity – check. Matchup – check.

    KEENAN ALLEN

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. There aren’t a ton of negatives I can bring up regarding any of the primary skill position players in this game outside of the obligatory game theoretic potential to explore unique ways to play them. Keenan Allen carries solid underlying metrics including a 27.1 percent team target market share, 25.7 percent targets per route run rate, 11.2 aDOT, and inflated-for-him 38.5 percent wide snap rate. The Chargers have become one of the most concentrated offenses in the league, with primary production flowing through Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler. Joshua Kelley isn’t on the same level as a guy like Ekeler through the air, further condensing the expected flow of targets in this offense.

    BILLS D/ST

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE. Chalk defense. You know what to do (explore other avenues).

    TRAVIS ETIENNE

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Etienne carries an elite rushing workload in a plus matchup. His 78.9 percent snap rate ranks fifth in the league, his 77.6 percent opportunity share ranks 10th, and he has run the fourth most routes amongst running backs (56). The problem is that he has seen only eight targets through two weeks, which is not enough receiving volume to reduce the need for 100 yards on the ground and multiple scores to provide a fantasy score you need at his salary for GPP play. Can he do that in this spot? Sure, he can. Is it the most likely outcome? Nope. And are there other backs on this slate that carry similar volume expectations for much less in salary? Yup!

    CHALK BUILD::

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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate


    OWS Fam ::

    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


    The Grid ::

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

    Blue Chips

    :: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Building Blocks

    :: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

    Bonuses

    :: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

    Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1k

    Patrick Mahomes
    Jerick McKinnon
    Craig Reynolds
    Tank Dell
    Josh Downs
    K.J. Osborn
    Travis Kelce
    Mike Williams
    Commanders

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    Sunday Morning Update:

    My QB exposure ended up being:

    4% Minshew
    20% Watson
    24% Herbert
    8% Josh Allen
    44% Mahomes

    Obviously, I’ll shop among those rosters for tighter builds, but it’s likely I’ll have a couple Watson rosters, a couple Herbert rosters, and several Mahomes rosters in three-max/SE, with an outside shot at a Josh Allen roster making the cut.

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    Blue Chips

    Patrick Mahomes

    I dive deep into this at the end of the Angles Pod, but if there is one quarterback on this slate likeliest to separate from Herbert/Cousins in terms of raw points, it’s Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes doesn’t typically get held back by blowout wins. If KC scores 4+ touchdowns, there’s a pretty good chance Mahomes is part of all of them. He comes with one of the highest floor/ceiling combos of any player on the slate.

    Chargers // Vikings

    See build-arounds

    “Light Blue” Chips

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    Build-Arounds

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    Building Blocks

    Slate-Breakers
    Justin Jefferson + Tony Pollard
    Story:

    “Justin Jefferson and Tony Pollard are the two guys who post ‘separator’ scores this week.”

    Why It Works:

    Jefferson will be very popular. Pollard will be very popular. But most people won’t be looking to fit the two of them onto a roster together. If these are the only two guys on the slate who score 35+ DraftKings points (especially if all the other popular plays top out under 30), this becomes a powerful setup.

    How It Works:

    If things work out in the way laid out above, your Jefferson points will separate you from all the other Pollard rosters, and your Pollard points will separate you from all the other Jefferson rosters. This alone could be enough differentiation to allow you to “play your favorite, high-upside plays” across the rest of your roster.

    POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

    The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

    “If Kelce Hits”

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    Bink Machine

    A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.


    New Video! :: I Break Down The Unique Ways In Which I Use The Bink Machine

    “If Kelce Hits”

    This setup is explored in the Building Blocks, above. This week, my rule of pairing Kelce with Mahomes will apply to “at least 80%” of my Kelce rosters. This creates some wiggle room for Kelce to be played without Mahomes, but most of my Kelce exposure will be tied to Mahomes. (Kelce anchor. “2/2” in min/max means “play both these guys.” 80% tells the Bink Machine how many rosters to force this rule on.)

    Slate-Breakers

    This setup is explored in the Building Blocks, above. I don’t want to force Pollard/Jefferson together across the board, but I do want at least 25% of my Pollard exposure to include Justin Jefferson. I accomplish this by adding a Pollard anchor and telling the Bink Machine to apply this rule at least 25% of the time Pollard shows up on a roster.

    “If Jefferson Hits”

    If Jefferson hits, at his price tag, the concentrated Chargers offense is probably producing a big game for Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or Josh Kelley as well. As such, I want to make sure that at least 70% of my Jefferson rosters include at least one of these three Chargers (with flexibility to have as many as two). I accomplish this with a Jefferson anchor and a pool that includes the three Chargers. “2/3” in min/max means I want at least two players from this pool, and as many as three. 70%, of course, means this rule will be forced on at least 70% of my Jefferson builds. (Note :: Jefferson is a critical decision point on the slate. But on rosters where you’re playing him, things shouldn’t stop there; you should be consciously thinking about how you get the most out of that play, as seen in some of these rules.)

    “No Double-Chargers Floating”

    I’m not totally sure if I’ll apply this rule or not, but you’ll notice that the rule above technically leaves room for something like “C.J. Stroud // Justin Jefferson // Mike Williams // Keenan Allen.” If you don’t want rosters with “two Chargers and no Chargers QB,” you can do so in the “Team Stacks” tab, changing the “max flex” option on the Chargers to 1. (The tutorial at the top of the Bink Machine page, of course, walks through each of these pages comprehensively and simply, allowing you to quickly understand what you’re doing across the board.) The rule above, then, would allow for something like “Herbert + Keenan + Mike + Jefferson,” but would prevent this happening when Herbert is off the roster. With Herbert, you can have Jefferson + 2 Chargers pieces. Without Herbert, you would have Jefferson + 1.

    Bonuses

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    If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

    This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

    If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

    QB ::

    Mahomes || Herbert || Cousins || Allen || Stroud

    RB ::

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    A Wrap ::

    I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    -JM

    Mike’s Player Grid

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests


    Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!


    The Core

    This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

    Running Back ::
    Tony Pollard

    Absolute stud. Top-priced RB on the slate but is probably still underpriced.

    Bijan Robinson

    This dude is the real deal. The Lions have struggled to stop the run this year and games in Detroit have a tendency to go bananas. Bijan is averaging 19.2 Draftkings points per game without touchdowns. Eventually, he’s going to have a two or three TD game and break the slate.

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    A discount version of Bijan, everything we talked about there holds true for Gibbs as well. David Montgomery is out so it’s reasonable to expect Gibbs to see a bigger role from what he’s done so far where he managed 10.3 DK points per game without scoring. That number should go up and he’s the type of player who is eventually going to make big plays and score touchdowns. 

    Raheem Mostert

    This game environment is going overlooked but is quietly the second-highest total on the slate. The Broncos just got torched by Brian Robinson and backup RB Salvon Ahmed is going to miss this game, cementing Mostert’s status as the primary back.

    Second-Tier

    A lot of RB options this week, so I’m splitting this into a second tier as all of the following players have great setups but I think are much less likely to post a game that runs away from the field than those RBs listed above:

    Alexander Matison

    Mattison has struggled mightily this season, but he’s getting almost all of the backfield work and is playing in the week’s premier game environment. Forget these first two games, he’s done well in good matchups when he gets volume throughout his career. The Chargers defense appears to be much more beatable than the Eagles and Bucs teams Mattison faced so far.

    Josh Kelley

    If at first you don’t succeed…..try, try again. Kelley flopped last week in the lead role but gets an improved matchup and game environment to give it another go. I would guess he touches the ball 20 times and he’s got a really good chance to score a TD.

    Javonte Williams

    The matchup, game environment, and talent are all there and Javonte will carry single-digit ownership – we just need Sean Payton to ride him at some point. This is a bit of a leap of faith for GPPs specifically.

    Jerome Ford

    Matchup is tough and the game environment is questionable, but at sub-$5k for a feature back that’s a home favorite I can’t just outright ignore him. He’s not a priority for me when making rosters but if I need a cheaper option to make the rest of a roster work, Ford is my guy.

    Tight End :: 
    Taysom Hill

    If I could draw up an ideal situation for a Taysom Hill smash spot, this would be it. Facing a Packers defense that has struggled for years stopping rushing quarterbacks, Taysom is coming off a game in which he had nine rushes, two targets, and a pass attempt. The Saints are without both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams, so this is a game Taysom should be a big part of the game plan once again. He has legitimate 25-point upside and at his price point, you can’t say that about the tight ends around him.

    TJ Hockenson

    Hockenson is an elite GPP play as he provides leverage on the highest priced and highest projected ownership tight end on the slate (Kelce) and has the lowest projected ownership among the core players in the week’s premium game environment (LAC // MIN).

    Kyle Pitts

    Pitts has been frustrating in fantasy football for quite some time now. That being said, his salary is extremely low and he will come with almost no ownership. We know how physically gifted he is and he has a 100% route participation through two weeks (meaning when he’s on the bench they are running the ball anyway) as well as the league’s highest average depth of target among tight ends. It’s reached the tipping point where we don’t need that much for him to not kill us at his salary but his upside is disproportionate to his potential – especially if the Falcons fall behind and have to throw more than we’ve seen so far.

    Defense :: 
    Browns

    Elite defense facing a quarterback who has not looked good this year.

    Commanders

    Josh Allen has a propensity for turnovers, the Bills defense is projected to lead the slate in ownership, and there’s a hurricane lurking. You’ll get them at tiny ownership (FD) or near-min price (DK).

    Chiefs

    Basically a lock on Fanduel and worth considering paying up for on Draftkings. They are a really good defense, Justin Fields takes sacks and turns the ball over. They are clearly the defense most likely to post a game of 20+ fantasy points this week.


    GPP Stack Of The Week

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    Papy’s Pieces

    Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

    The Board

    Welcome to Week 3 DFS! Rarely is a DFS slate so defined by one game. Chargers // Vikings is sporting a 54-point total, a full touchdown higher than the second highest games of the Broncos // Dolphins, and Bears // Chiefs at 48. After those, Falcons // Lions is sitting at 48.5, and the next highest total comes all the way down to 44. There are only three games within 10 points of the  Chargers // Vikings, and it doesn’t take a deep dive to see each of them has clear paths to the downside. The Broncos offense has been a spread-out mess so far for DFS, and Tyreek Hill could see a shadow from Patrick Surtain. The Falcons // Lions game is a matchup of two of the run heaviest teams in football. Bears // Chiefs is projected to be a blowout, and the side expected to do most of the scoring (KC) is spread out behind Travis Kelce. That leaves the Chargers // Vikings, a matchup between two pass happy, fast moving, offensively talented teams who conveniently (for our purposes) sport weak defenses. Sometimes in DFS, we are faced with the question, do we do the obvious? I think in this case, the answer is yes! With that in mind, here are Week 3’s pieces!

    Pawn – Desmond Ridder ($5,000)

    Did the almighty algo miss that Ridder scored 22 DK points last week? Sure, he scored a rushing touchdown which isn’t always going to happen but he also carried the ball 10 times for 39 yards, and running is going to be a part of his game. Ridder ran an impressive 40-yard dash (4.52) coming out of college and there is reason to believe we haven’t seen his rushing upside fully show up. It’s not as if Ridder has been bad when asked to throw either, with his main obstacle to fantasy success being the playcalling.  This game has a large range of outcomes, but many of them are a shootout, and I’ll take a running QB priced at near minimum in a high total game all day long. 

    Knight – Joshua Kelley ($5,400)

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

    Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

    Writing this little column helped my game immensely last week. I put my own thoughts into my lineups and managed to come within two (f**king) rushing yards of a seven-figure score. I mention this not because it will be helpful to anyone, but because I’m self-centered and desperate for validation. 

    OK, maybe there is a process lesson here. You’ve consumed a bunch of content this week. You’ve crunched the numbers and thought through a bunch of scenarios in your own unique way. The question then becomes, did you really play the way you wanted to? It’s common to get to Sunday afternoon and lament the fact that we knew things were going to unfold a certain way but just didn’t hammer it. That’s why the “That was so obvious, how did I not see It” section of The Oracle is so useful. Not just to glom onto the thoughts of our OWS sharps, but to put you in that mode. Complete your process this week by writing down your own version of this exercise. Ensure you are making rosters that intentionally utilize the ideas you’ve worked so hard to cultivate. 

    Then, turn on the games and watch flawed human beings define the term “variance” and fuck it all up. 

    At least you’ll sleep like a baby knowing that you played the way you intended. 

    Secondary Core-Relations

    We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

    Tyreek Hill/Courtland Sutton 

    Betting on single pieces of opposing concentrated offenses is a great way to build correlation into a lineup without utilizing the quarterback. Denver isn’t exactly as concentrated as I’d like but game script could dictate exaggerated pass volume here. There is a soft spot in the Dolphins zone defense hovering in whatever area Eli Apple resides. Perhaps Sutton and/or Jerry Jeudy can exploit it. 

    I like building this duo into stacks of the popular MIN/LAC game. Leaving Justin Jefferson off these rosters gives us a path to first place should the game shoot out, but Tyreek manages to outscore Jefferson. 

    Texans Pass Catcher/Jaguars Pass Catcher

    We won’t be gaining any kind of ownership advantage with this one, but the upside and salary savings are notable. Houston has allowed CJ Stroud to learn on the job by slinging it all over the place. This is buoyed by the fact that their offensive line is incapable of creating yards in the running game. Enter the Jaguars who rank 3rd in points to opposing RBs and we should see little change in the WR volume on Sunday. 

    The absence of Zay Jones (knee) serves to condense the Jags offense considerably. Combos such with Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk or Evan Engram on one side, and Nico Collins/Tank Dell or even Robert Woods on the other are very much in play for me in Week 3. 

    Stefon Diggs/Johan Dotson 

    Ownership could come in under 10% combined and both players are capable of making huge plays. 

    Nelson Agholor/Josh Downs (or Alec Pierce) 

    This is a price-considered correlation that could produce a 5x outcome while simultaneously opening salary for those hard-to-reach studs. These players could each put up tournament-winning scores without necessarily bringing their quarterbacks into the optimal. Although if both of these Colts get there…hello Mr. Minshew INSERT EYEBALL LOOK EMOJI HERE

    Did I mention that both Agholor and Pierce are projected to be less than 2% owned?

    Lower-Owned Treasures

    Running Back

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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    Sunday, May 15th, 2022

    I had a poor start to the MLB DFS season in April last year so took a little break from it. In baseball, with games every day and night, the information can be overwhelming, the streaks can be strong, and more importantly, the variance can be a real you know what. So I took some time to not play after the first few weeks of the season.

    By mid-May, on the 15th, I had some time to myself to look into the slate and felt like getting back into the fold. Like others, I went to a popular DFS content site I subscribed to and started to read game-by-game breakdowns of the main slate. The poor pitchers were projected to pitch poorly, and the good lineups with the highest implied totals were projected to lead the slate in runs. It all made sense, and I felt armed to build my lineups.

    Then, into the games we went, and the highest priced pitcher on the slate, Carlos Rodon, gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. That wasn’t supposed to happen! I don’t recall if I played any of Rodon, but I do remember seeing the slate unfold and feeling like I got slapped in the face. I spent the time to study the slate, and read through all the content, but then like a real amateur, I simply followed the crowd and built logical lineups. 

    Logical lineups don’t win GPPs in any sport. Apologies for the digression into baseball here, but I’m willing to guess you’ve shared the same feeling in preparation for an NFL slate. You spend the time, you read the content and feel good about your understanding of the matchups and players you want to build around. And then your lineups bust. What gives?

    “Individually, we’re smart, but collectively, we’re stupid.” 

    This quote originally attributed to famed investor Francois Marie-Wojcik, is one of my favorites. We’re all unique. We can all think for ourselves. And yet, we tend to follow the herd. We love and crave groupthink. It makes us feel comfortable, warm, and fuzzy. But it’s when we truly do think in our own minds that we can reach where we want to go.

    Said another way and bringing this baby back full circle to Week 3, prepare the right way. You’re already on the right DFS site, but make sure once you consume all of the content and analysis that you are building lineups for you. There’s a benefit in adding our own spin to our own rosters, I’d argue equally as much benefit as you get for actually reading through the analysis of a slate. You won’t win anything if you build like the collective field. But you also won’t win anything by putting in little preparation. Balance those two dynamics and take down a tournament this week.

    Welcome to Rookie RB Week

    Week 3 feels like we’re due for rookie running back week. Through two weeks, we’ve seen those rookie wide receivers popping all over the place (Puka, Zay, Tank, JSN, even Mims) as the narrative continues that college football passing offenses are more pro-ready than ever these days. But how about the running backs? Our two studs, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs seem to be protected by their own head coaches thus far, but that hasn’t stopped either from producing social media snippets going viral.

    The talent is there for both Gibbs and Bijan. On Gibbs, if we continue to take Lions HC Dan Campbell at his word that he will continue to build his workload each game, then he’s a lock for over 50% of the offensive snaps and likely going to get around a minimum of 15 touches. At home against an improved Falcons defense may require the Lions to get creative with how to get Gibbs the ball in space, but as OC Ben Johnson said this week “Gibbs can do anything.” With David Montgomery now out, and the Lions committed to establishing the run (31st in PROE), this is a spot to take advantage of the talent.

    Bijan, similarly, has all the tools but simply needs the volume to keep up. The good news is his mustache-loving, son-of-a-billionaire HC Arthur Smith is also committed to running the football. He will likely still cede goal line work to Tyler Allgeier but Bijan should be featured. I’m making a rule in the Bink Machine to only play these two on rosters together, to continue on the RB vs. RB matchups, and will also play this as part of a Falcons/Lions game overstack.

    Alexander Mattison + Justin Jefferson + Mike Williams

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    The Oracle

    The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 3 Topics

    1. Unique Slate

    2. Hot Seats

    3. Decision Point

    4. Floating Plays

    5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. Unique Slate

    The Question ::

    Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    The clear “best plays” on this slate, for the most part, have wider ranges of outcomes and fewer paths to “had to have it” scores than a week like last week. And many of the plays in the second tier, below the clear “best plays,” don’t have much separating one from another on-paper. In the Angles Podcast, I went in-depth on this topic, and on how I’m handling it myself, but the short of it is twofold:

    Firstly, I want to get out of my old “one lineup on the week” mindset that would require me to take a stand on “who the best play is” out of the clumped-up bunches. If I can’t find anything that clearly separates one play from another in a particular tier, I need to adjust my play accordingly.

    Secondly, I want to look for the spots where the clumped-up plays aren’t all that likely to produce a slate-winner, and I want to then see if I can hunt for higher-volatility plays that have enough ceiling to jump my rosters over those clumped-up plays.

    Obviously, the Chargers and Vikings game has broad opportunity to be an exception to the idea of there not being as many clear pathways to “had to have it” scores, and that game is another unique component on this week. But away from that game, there are still many decisions to be made, and I’ll be making some of those decisions by simply “not forcing myself to make them” — instead leaning into the uncertainty I’m seeing and finding the edges that are available through that approach.

    Xandamere >>

    It projects to be relatively high-scoring, for one….despite losing an extra game to Monday, this week we have three games with totals at 48+ and just two with totals under 40. Lots of DFS goodness to sort through.

    We also have a massive pile of running back value (if you extend “value” up to the mid-range of, say, $6k), with something like 9 or 10 running backs at $6k or less that I think can be considered firmly in play this week. 

    The combination of these two things means that we can expect ownership, especially at running back, to be spread out. There will be plenty of popular plays, of course, but I don’t think we’re going to see anything like one 30-40% owned mega chalk guy (as we normally would with a guy like Kelley or Ford this week on most slates). 

    Hilow >>

    The general composition of the slate is unlike anything we’ve seen this season – we have a game with the highest game total of the year, we’ve got a plethora of teams carrying a Vegas implied team total approaching (or surpassing) four touchdowns (Ravens – 26, Jaguars – 26.25, Chargers – 26.5, Dolphins – 27.25, Vikings – 27.5, Cowboys – 27.75, and Chiefs – 30.25), and we’ve got injuries starting to pile up in some spots that could condense the offense even further. When we look at this slate through that lens, we can begin to reason that the score ultimately needed to ship GPPs this week might be higher than we have seen up to this point in the season, and we need to be building rosters accordingly.

    Mike >>

    For me, there are two things about this week that stand out to make it “unique”. Both things have more to do with how the season has played out so far than they do about specifics with this week. The first thing is how last week’s main slate worked out with none of the “premium” players popping off for huge scores and the tight end and quarterback positions having relatively flat scoring. The second thing that stands out to me is how we have one game that has a much higher total than the rest of the games on the slate and we’ve had the same situation each of the first two weeks with very different results each week. For that second part, you can refer to question 3 to hear how each of us views that spot and adjusts to that dynamic. For the first part, it is important to remember that DFS is largely a game of psychology. The optimal way to play last week was a balanced lineup. Everyone who paid up for the highest priced players at tight end, quarterback, and wide receiver got burned for the most part. Maybe “burned” is extreme, but with none of those top guys putting up 35-40 points and a lot of guys in the mid range scoring 20 to 30 points it made balanced builds clearly the path to first. It will be interesting to see the field’s reaction to this and if there is an edge to be gained from finding unique ways to play those high end guys.


    2. Hot Seats

    The Question ::

    Through 2 weeks we have some teams off to hot starts and some teams who have fallen flat on their faces. It doesn’t take long in the NFL for the honeymoon phase to end. When coaches start to get desperate, long-term concerns can get thrown out the window which can matter for us in fantasy as some players may get a spike in usage. 

    With that in mind, which coaches do you think are on or close to the hot seat and what, if any, changes in player usage will you be looking for and/or trying to be ahead of in the coming weeks?

    The Answers ::

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    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    Afternoon-Only

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    FINDING AN EDGE

    The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

    This Week’s Slate
    • Three games is really getting tight for the late slate. Honestly, I’m not a huge fan of slates like this and much prefer them in the four to six game range. This week’s slate has the week’s two biggest favorites (KC and DAL), three teams projected for less than 19 points, and then the Seahawks just chilling in the middle. 
    • The interesting thing about the two heavy favorites is the huge difference in their playing styles and touch distributions. Whereas Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb account for a massive percentage of the Cowboys offense, the Chiefs have Travis Kelce heavily involved and then like ten other players getting touches on a weekly basis. 
    • Can any of these games be a shootout? I actually think all three of these games could surprise. Arizona just got into a high scoring game with the Giants last week and Dallas lost a key defender. Carolina’s offense will actually probably be more efficient with Andy Dalton under center and the Seahawks defense looks like it could be really bad. The Chiefs seem likely to blow the doors off the Bears but Justin Fields is the type of player who could be an X-Factor that flips the switch on the whole thing.
    Ownership Strategy
    • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
    • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
    • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
    • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.
    QB Strategy

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    Late Swap

    StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

    Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

    Outlook – Late Games:

    Only three games (out of twelve) fall in the late window, thanks in part to two MNF games again this week. While on the surface that might seem to lessen the importance of late swap consideration, this slate actually sets up quite the opposite.

    Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
    • No way to get around it, the key early outcome to monitor is the Vikings/Chargers game. Four of the five highest projected owned players (Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Joshua Kelley) are part of the game and it features the highest total of the week. If any of the four aforementioned players put up a had to have it score, and your roster doesn’t have them, you are likely dead for first place. Along with the skill position players mentioned above, more than 25% of the field will (also) be playing Cousins or Herbert. However, what makes this slate unique in that sense is that this game is likely to be finished by the time the two 4:25 games kick off. That’s important because while it will carry the highest combined ownership (by a wide margin), it does not feature either of the top two teams in terms of Vegas implied team totals – a distinction held by the Chiefs and the Cowboys respectively. More on this below, but I recommend including one or two roster spots (preferably including the flex) on every roster built for late game players.
    • Tyreek Hill – a true potential slate-braker and is likely to carry 15-20% ownership.
    • Mid-priced RBs ($4,800 – $6,000) – specifically Zack Moss, Jerome Ford, Raheem Mostert, Joshua Kelly, and Alexander Mattison. The field wants to pay up for the likes of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Tony Pollard, and Keenan Allen and this is leading to a lot of congregation on the mid-tier RB range this week.
    • “Slate Breakers” such as Tyreek Hill’s 47.5 DK point performance in week 1.
    Late Swap Notes:

    Six skill position players in the late games are projected for double digit ownership, and none are WRs: Pollard, Pacheco, Sanders, Walker III, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz. With both the Cowboys and Chiefs implied for four TDs each, this is a great spot to leverage the confidence and certainty the field is showing on how these teams will score.

    As mentioned above, I would make a point to include at least one roster spot from these late games on every roster.

    Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

    $7,000 and up:

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    Battle Royale

    Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

    Welcome to Week 3!

    If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is how to access my article reviewing 2021 and 2022 top rosters:

    OWS → Archives → The Scroll Archives → Week 1, 2023 → Battle Royale (at bottom) (or click the link)

    This was an atypical weekly preview as it was more of a primer for the contest than about anything Week 1 specific; so if you’d like to access it, then that is the easiest way to do it.

    For this week, I’ll be showing the top rosters of Week 2, updating some trending stats, and hitting on some of my thoughts on each position. Let’s get started!

    Reviewing Week 2

    ScoreQBRBFLEXWRWRTE
    137.50MahomesBarkleyHigginsKeenanEvansAndrews
    135.76AllenCMCHigginsKeenanEvansAndrews
    135.20HerbertBarkleyNacuaKeenanEvansAndrews
    135.10HerbertBarkleyHigginsKeenanEvansKelce
    134.30HerbertCMCHigginsKeenanEvansAndrews

    Notable Stats

    1st place performance:

    • 25 of the 38 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 16 of the 38 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 34 of the 38 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

    FLEX usage:

    • 129 of 190 top-5 rosters have had two RBs (67.9%), meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
    • The other 61 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

    Stacking and Correlation:

    • 22 of 38 had a QB paired with just one teammate
      • WR (17), TE (3), RB (2)
    • 4 of 38 had a QB stacked with two teammates
      • WR-RB (3), WR-WR (1)
    • 4 of those 26 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
    • 37 of 38 had at least one game correlation
    • 13 of 38 had two different game correlations

    Looking at Week 3

    QB:

    Notable QBs missing from slate: Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones

    Top 6 by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa

    Notes:

    • All 6 of the top drafted QBs (+ #7 Trevor Lawrence and #8 Dak Prescott) have team totals of 26+ points
    • Mahomes is still the toughest to stack, as he doesn’t always make it back after taking Travis Kelce. I would otherwise want to pair him with TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews given that a big Mahomes score means it’s unlikely Kelce completely duds.
    • Lamar plays a home game against a team far easier to pass on than run and has at least two great stacking partners in Andrews and Zay Flowers.
    • Herbert and Cousins play in the most attractive game on the slate and are both easily and frequently stacked with their pass-catchers, so an important thing will just be to make sure to differentiate with the way you play them (i.e. paired with their RBs or the other QB’s RB).
    • Anthony Richardson is questionable with a concussion, but you can get him in the last round and his legs keep him in play every week.
    • This is not the typical spot I’d want to take Jared Goff but if so I’d probably want to use him in a full game stack with potentially two Lions and a Falcon.
    • Deshaun Watson has not looked good, but gets a pass funnel defense right after losing Nick Chubb, and he can rack up points on the ground as well. I’d want to pair him with Amari Cooper and probably even Derrick Henry if this game environment were to truly compete with the other strong ones on the slate.
    RB:

    Notable RBs missing from this slate: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift

    Top 10 by ADP: Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson

    Notes:

    • Pollard is seeing unbelievable usage through two games and now faces a below-average team and the 2nd highest team total on the slate. Considering the guys missing on this slate, Pollard should be one of the top 3-4 players taken in every draft.
    • The Cook ADP confounds me. He lost significant red zone usage to Murray and Harris, and got more than half of his yards in the 4th Q up 3 TDs, with a 36-yard scamper with Kyle Allen at QB being his best play of the season. He doesn’t have the TD equity or touch share to be worth drafting in a normal 6-man BR contest, and I will be fine missing out on him the same way I was with Devin Singletary.
    • Mostert is benefiting right now from injuries to the two other main pieces of the MIA backfield, but still not getting the kind of usage we prefer to have with no real passing game role. I am fine not being a part of the random (and few) weeks Mostert might break a long one (like this past Sunday night). He has much more value in the 12-man drafts.
    • Josh Kelley and Alexander Mattison are both coming off bad weeks, but are still expected to be the lead backs in the game with the highest total (54!). Every single draft sees both QBs, both top 2 WRs, and TJ Hockenson drafted, yet for some reason these RBs are both being overlooked.
    • Isiah Pacheco is the lead RB for a home team implied for 30 points in a matchup with a bottom-tier defense. He has the same upside concerns as someone like Mostert due to a questionable passing game role, but he’s the most reliable KC skill player to put up points after Travis Kelce.
    WR:

    Notable WRs missing from this slate: Davante Adams, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Puka Nacua

    Notes:

    • Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill should be the top two picks in every draft right now. Slate is missing most of the receivers with comparable ceilings, and having Mark Andrews and TJ Hockenson in good spots as well gives a bump to these two over Travis Kelce.
      • One interesting way to play these guys is to pair them with the other guy’s teammate. For example, JJ with Waddle, Mostert, Smythe / Tyreek with Hockenson, Addison, or Mattison. If one is separating from the other, it’s more likely due to one of the other’s teammates scoring points than the offenses failing in their respective spots.
    • Ceedee Lamb, despite being in a great spot matchup-wise, is someone I will be okay missing out on. The Cowboys are large favorites, and given how DAL has treated these spots under McCarthy, Lamb would have to be extremely efficient to make up for a lack of volume in this projected game environment (plus the return of Brandin Cooks). I think the preferred way to play him is with Marquise Brown, as he’s the only one I see as being able to push DAL to pass more.
    • It’s not quite the same as last week given that MIN is much more attackable on the ground than TEN was, but as long as Ekeler remains out, Keenan Allen maintains an elevated target rate and higher TD-equity. The most attractive game environment on the slate and overall lack of elite WR options keep him firmly in play.
      • I do still personally prefer Mike Williams in this contest, however. Allen seems more likely to draw coverage from Byron Murphy, and Williams’s downfield role lends itself to more ceiling games. He also comes at a cheaper cost by ADP in these drafts.
    • ATLs defense is showing signs of improvement and uses a style of coverage that St. Brown has been targeted less frequently against; plus St. Brown is dealing with a turf toe injury. Since the start of last year, St. Brown’s only scores of 17+ points have come in games of 36-27, 31-30, 25-28, and 40-14, Given the ball-control nature of how these offenses play and the low game total, St. Brown is probably best only played with an ATL weapon this week.
    • Amari Cooper gets a home matchup against a pass funnel defense that has already given up big days to WRs through two weeks. One of the top-5 highest ceilings on the slate at WR.
    • Zay Flowers gets a home matchup against one of the weakest secondaries in the league, fresh off two weeks in a row of being torched by multiple WRs.
      • Flowers is another interesting leverage pairing with Kelce or Hockenson, as he and Andrews are more likely to negatively correlate for ceiling games here.
    TE:

    Notable TEs missing from this slate: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee

    Top 6 by ADP: Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Hunter Henry

    Notes:

    • I want one of the top 3 guys on 90-100% of my rosters this week. All 3 are in good matchups on teams implied for 30, 27, and 26 points. I will be looking to leverage each one of the 3 with the others’ teammates when it makes sense.
      • Kelce → Flowers, Addison, Mattison
      • Andrews → Jefferson, Addison, Mattison, Pacheco
      • Hockenson → Flowers, Pacheco
    • Any of the remaining TEs selected should probably almost always be leveraged with guys that negatively correlate with the top 3 TEs given the incomparable ceilings. I would also be looking to game-stack them if possible.
    • With injuries to David Montgomery and St. Brown, and with the style of defense ATL plays, LaPorta can put up a decent score here. 
    • Kyle Pitts week?? Lions just lost starting safety CJ Gardner Johnson, they already lack good coverage players overall, and Pitts has been playing all over the formation on offense. Feels gross, and you probably only want to play with any Lions pieces (improved game environment), but none of these other TEs are going to feel comfortable.
    • Durham Smythe has 10 targets so far and his teammate Jaylen Waddle is questionable to play. Can be used to get leverage off Tyreek, or to double down on the MIA passing attack with a Tua double stack.
    • Juwan Johnson always comes with 2-TD potential, even if the target share has been weak to start 2023.
    Underowned Combos:
    • Mahomes + Kelce + Flowers + Mattison
    • Lamar + Andrews + Jefferson/Mattison/Pacheco
    • Lamar + Flowers + Kelce/Hockenson
    • Cousins + Jefferson + Kelley + (Flowers)
    • Cousins + Mattison
    • Herbert + Keenan/Williams + Mattison + (Kelce/Andrews) 
    • Goff + Gibbs + LaPorta + Robinson/Drake London
    • Richardson + Flowers + Kelce
    • Watson + Cooper + Henry
    • Prescott + Pollard

    Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!