Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

What a wild Week 1! 

For any first-timers joining the community this season, welcome yet again! And if you’ve just signed up after enjoying ALL the free content in Week 1, you made a great investment.

As a reminder :: we send the Angles email on Thursdays each week to provide a high-level overview of the upcoming Sunday Main Slate, giving you a first look of sorts into the week ahead. In every other week besides Week 1 (and maybe the Thanksgiving slate), this could be one of your first primers for the week and set the path of your next few days. 

The goal here is to get you thinking for the week by giving you our thinking at this point in time.

OWS is committed to providing a unique lens into the world of DFS. You’ll get some player picks here and there, but if you like to read, listen, and analyze fantasy content, boy do we have the tools to level up your DFS play. 

You can expect to get out what you put in…meaning each week you should expect to sharpen your play by using all of the tools, consuming the content, learning through your unique POV, and engaging with the broader OWS community.

But before we go anywhere else…

OWS NFL PROPS WEEK 2 SPECIAL!

We don’t just do DFS, of course. And while it’s not quite as powerful as everything on the site being free, it’s pretty darn close. 

Our weekly NFL props package is just $9 this week with code PROPS9 (usually $19). That’s over 50% discount for one week only. 

If you rode with the team in Week 1 to the tune of a positive ROI (5-2!), continue that drumbeat this week before committing for the season with this discount! We’ll do the thinking, you just make the bets.

WEEK 2 :: WHEN WE ACTUALLY LEARN A LOT ABOUT PLAYERS AND COACHES

With Week 1 officially in the books, we turn the page to Week 2. 

A week that feels a lot shorter than Week 1 (because of the summer content cycle that flows into it).

A week that seems to provide more clarity, more certainty, and more comfort.

A week that leads to overreaction, underreaction, and sometimes, barely any reactions.

I’ve always thought the mark of a great coach is one who rarely loses during games with more than one week to prepare. Of course, those opportunities come infrequently in the grind of an 18-week NFL season, but we do get glimpses such as preparing for a Super Bowl, coming off a bye week, or simply Week 1 every season. 

The data backs this up. Among NFL coaches, we tend to get the same list in both categories (bye weeks + Week 1 records) with the leaders being the likes of Andy Reid (21-4 off a bye), Sean McDermott (8-0), Mike Tomlin (14-4), and Bill Belichick (16-7).

If you think about it, it makes sense as to why some people thrive in elongated strategies while others struggle. It all comes back to how prone we are to overthinking and how well we have a defined process that can be repeated for success. The great ones know how to do it, while the amateurs can bottle it up every now and again, but sustained success will be just as fleeting in Week 2 as it could be in every additional week of the season with less than seven days to prepare.

Great! So how does this help us with Week 2?

Because it’s VERY likely that some of what we saw in Week 1 is a mirage.

Thinking about repeatable process, let’s lay out a few examples of great performances in Week 1, to think and understand which we think can endure in Week 2 and beyond:

• Shane Steichen and Daniel Jones dropped 33 points on Miami and it could have been more.
• Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman cooked up the Chiefs defense with a redefined, pass-happy Justin Herbert.
• The Steelers and Jets combined for 66 points with Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields under center.
• The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC, while the Eagles played conservatively with a new OC and new defensive personnel.
• Kevin O’Connell and J.J. McCarthy stole the show on Monday Night Football.

Think through these one more time before turning to Week 2. History tells us at least one, if not two or three, or more of these won’t be a trend that continues in the coming months of the NFL season. It’s also likely that at least one, or maybe two or three, becomes a real trend. 

In Week 2, we have to generate our perspectives on things like this. Keep in mind – there’s almost always some truth and some lies present, and rarely all or nothing one way or another.

DON’T CHASE YOUR TAIL

From a macro level, Weeks 1 and 2 are set up similarly. We have 12 total games on the main slate, with the double-header on MNF acting as the Brazil game from Week 1. Of these 12 games, a whopping nine(!) are in the early window Sunday. So get those Eagles // Chiefs players in your lineups now, because Jim Nantz and Tony Romo’s voices will be the last ones you hear while sweating out a tournament win. 

As with every week, let’s at least mention those who we don’t have on this slate :: the likes of the Packers, Commanders, Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Raiders, Texans, and Falcons. Meaning we’ll need to wait one more week for new-look Herbert, “rookie” McCarthy, and one Buc in every lineup (we love you, Emeka).

What we do have is four games projected for 46+ points, with the Jaguars // Bengals projected to be the highest score on the board. We also have the Bengals (26.5), Ravens (28.5), Lions (26.5), and Bills (26.5) all over 26 points to pace the projected team totals. The Cardinals (hosting Panthers) and Cowboys (hosting Giants) are right behind this cluster with 25+ team totals, so it feels like there are many ways to go with lineups this week. 

In terms of at-a-glance expectations and angles to consider:

Jags // Bengals: Liam Coen went run-heavy in his first game as Jags head coach, but that was against Bryce Young and Carolina. With Joe Burrow on the other side, it’s likely he’ll maintain play-calling aggression but shift to the air. What will we get from Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins this week? Well, if the Jags can push the scoreboard (big IF with Trevor Lawrence), we should expect more from Cincy’s “Big 3.”

Eagles // Chiefs: The aforementioned late-afternoon hammer. The big question here is how will Kansas City get big plays without Rashee Rice and now, Xavier Worthy? Can Travis Kelce deliver a vintage performance? Do they go ultra run-heavy? On Philadelphia’s side, will OC Kevin Patullo give Jalen Hurts a more aggressive gameplan after watching the Chargers have success through the air? And if so, what can we expect from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and did health affect their Week 1 performances? 

Ravens (vs. Browns): Surely a sour taste in their mouth after last week’s stunning loss to Buffalo, but a run-heavy gameplan on the backs of Derrick and Lamar seems likely again as a large home favorite against Cleveland. What will Jim Schwartz have to say about that? Safe to say he likely knows this too and knows how concentrated the passing offense was around Zay Flowers last week. Can Cleveland’s “O” with Big Joe get an early lead and completely flip the game script?

Bills (at Jets): Josh Allen is notoriously not great (by his standards) against the Jets. He’s also arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. The Jets are impossible to project with a new coach and a QB who looked ‘different’ last week (Justin Fields reads progressions quickly now?). Buffalo should score, but will the Bills spread it around? Are the Jets capable of spreading it around? 

Lions (vs. Bears): Back home indoors and with old friend Ben Johnson coming in on a short week, logic says both teams will be (slightly more) motivated to win this one. Logic doesn’t always prevail and we know Johnson knows this Detroit defense well. The Lions did not look like the Lions of years past in Week 1, but was it a blip or a sign of new early-season coaching? Surely new OC John Morton and Jared Goff will be looking more downfield this week after ranking last in the league in average depth of target in Green Bay.

Cowboys (vs. Giants): Home opener for the ‘Boys and incoming are the Giants with a shaky starting quarterback. Dallas looked better than expected according to most experts last week, but which version shows up here in a game they should win? CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers are sure to dominate targets on both sides, but beyond them, this game is a whole slew of unknowns.

Cardinals (vs. Panthers): The popular opinion here is that Carolina is a bottom-three team in the NFL and Arizona could be ascending (or at least trending the right way after taking care of business with New Orleans in Week 1). We’ll either get a feistier-than-expected Panthers team or one that rolls over to the Cardinals. Either way, you’ll see a few short-stature quarterback jokes in this one, and who knows, maybe the actual game environment takes off.

Game environments aren’t everything, as we know. But pricing aside, we can also clear the paint (a sports crossover analogy?!) on a few games which more times than not will prove to not be the tournament-winning stacks. Those low-scoring affairs are 49ers // Saints (Mac Jones & Spencer Rattler?), Seahawks // Steelers (don’t do this again, Rodgers), and Rams // Titans (may need to wait just a bit longer for Cam Ward). There are plenty of contributors there (CMC, Puka, JSN) but stacks? Meh.

Whatever you do, don’t chase your tail. 

Whatever strategies you deployed in Week 1, whether they worked or not, the worst approach this week is to completely rethink and watch your former strategy win. 

Instead, tweak and modify to maintain your process and be there when the variance hits.

And with that, we’re out of here!

We’ll see you in Props Insider (only $9 this week! — PROPS9), and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

It has now been five seasons since the league did away with the fourth preseason game, effectively truncating preparations for the regular season. Not only that, but teams have fewer padded practices in camp, players holding out or holding in is now a common occurrence, and most teams get very few drives with their starters in preseason. What I’m getting at is this: we have causal factors that clearly point to why scoring is down to begin the season. Teams are still working to find their identity, pass-catchers are still working on their connection with their quarterback, offensive lines are still working on their cohesion, and players are still working their way into peak form. And that’s before we even consider the changing dynamics of the yin-yang effect of offensive versus defensive coordinators. We saw an absurd rate of stacked boxes in Week 1 as defenses punch back against recent play calling trends.

You have heard us talk about the relationship between salary and building rosters for years, and how that relationship becomes dust in the wind once the first football is kicked. Raw points are what matter to us, and capturing raw points becomes that much more difficult early in the season.

There are only two games on the Week 2 main slate with a game total in the range we’re typically talking about when we’re singling out game environments. There are only two other games that approach that magic number (47.0). Salary is still relatively loose. There is only one player expected to garner 20%+ ownership. All of this comes together to form a slate that is wide open. So, how can we capture those raw points when the field is telling us they lack certainty on this slate? Keep that in mind as we continue our theoretical exploration of the slate ahead.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We love McCaffrey. We want to play McCaffrey. Hell, I’ll probably play 100% McCaffrey in Week 2 (remember, that is a Single-Entry, 3-Max mindset). As I highlighted in the write-up of that game this week (and this is extremely important), the 49ers ran 76 offensive plays in Week 1 against an opponent that ranked second in pace of play. They now play an opponent that ranked first in pace of play, by almost four seconds per play. That is a massive margin. This Saints team wants to push the pace. We were told that all offseason and we saw that in each of head coach Kellen Moore’s stops over the previous five seasons, and then we saw that in Week 1. That is a solid boost to every game environment the Saints will find themselves in this season, and that continues in Week 2 against the 49ers. Not only that, McCaffrey is coming off a 32-opportunity game in which both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings departed with injury, Kittle now finds himself on injured reserve, and Jennings is listed as questionable after going DNP, DNP, limited (and he also missed most of camp and preseason with a calf issue/contract dispute). The volume must go somewhere, and it is highly likely to start with CMC.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

• Justin Fields led all QBs with ten designed runs in week 1. He only averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but the volume stands out. Last season, Jalen Hurts led the league with 6.3 designed rush attempts per game. In addition, the BUF defense looked slow on SNF, allowing Lamar Jackson 10.2 yards per carry on 5 designed runs. Jackson had five runs of 10+ yards on his way to a league-leading 70 rush yards by a QB.
• “Josh Allen is going to run less this season.” We have heard this now for the past couple of seasons, which has led to 32 rush TDs, the most in the league for any player (Derrick Henry had 31). He was at it again in week one, handling 6-of-8 carries inside the 10-yard line for two rushing TDs. He had another 3 QB sneaks, a stat he finished 2nd in 2024 (1.5 QB sneaks per game). With his best group of pass-catchers of his career and continued aggressiveness on the ground, Allen should be set up for another big day against the Jets (allowed Aaron Rodgers 8.1 YPA and 4 TDs in Week 1). 

• Over his last 19 home games with CeeDee Lamb on the field, Dak Prescott is averaging 282.9 passing yards per game, +50 yards more than his road average. Over the past two seasons, he’s been just an average QB on the road (16.7 FP/g), while being a true “QB1” at home (20.4 FP/g). The Week 1 matchup lines up well with NYG ranked 27th in pressure rate, while DAL finished 4th in pressure rate allowed on the road in Philly. In his last three home starts against the G-Men, Dak has averaged 322 passing yards and 3 TDs (25 FP/g). In addition, NYG put LB Micah McFadden on IR (10th best pass rush grade in 2024, per PFF). 
• Jalen Hurts has played in 14 games without TE Dallas Goedert (OUT this week vs. KC), averaging 10.8 rush attempts, 55 rushing yards, and 1.3 rushing TDs per game. That puts him at 26.7 fantasy points per game, a 23% increase from his already strong 21.6 FP/game with Goedert. He’s also delivered some of his best production against KC, averaging a ridiculous 30.6 FP/g, his highest per-game average against any team with multiple starts. Last week, Hurts led the league with 9 scrambles, averaging 7 yards per carry on those runs.

RB

• Christian McCaffrey was one of eleven players with 10+ targets in week one (.34 targets per route run). This was fueled by George Kittle and Juwan Jennings leaving the game with injuries (Brandon Aiyuk already on IR). In Week 2, Kittle has been ruled out, and Jennings is looking doubtful. That puts CMC back in the role of the 49ers #1 receiving option along side Ricky Pearsall, and while this is a DFS article, I could not pass up on the opportunity to tell you to join me in betting CMC’s receptions prop (OVER 4.5, -115 at MGM, good up to -130). In Mac Jones’ last six starts for JAX in 2024, he averaged 5.4 completions per game to RBs. In addition, LT Trent Williams is OUT for SF, which should lead to more pressure and (hopefully) lots of checkdowns to CMC (AZ RBs caught 5-of-5 targets in week one vs. NO).

• Travis Etienne Jr. (18th in RB opportunity share) helped me to a profitable week one. He was 4th in FP per rush among backs with 10+ rush attempts and trailed only King Henry in runs of 10+ yards with four. He then got an off-the-field boost when Tank Bigsby was traded to PHI. Still, the public is not buying in with ETN projected to be just 7.7% owned on the DK main slate. This despite being in a much better game environment with the highest total on the slate (49.5) and CIN just allowing 25.1 FP to CLE RBs via 9 receptions (on 9 targets). This after allowing RBs to convert on 87% of their targets last season (7.85 FP/g via the pass). Last week, Etienne ran 16 routes (3 targets), Bigsby 7 (no targets), and LeQuint Allen Jr.  8 routes (1 target), with Bhayshul Tuten not running a route. As a 3.5 road dog, I would expect Etienne to be involved in the passing attack once again (I am also betting his receiving props). 

• J.K. Dobbins led DEN with a 74.4% RB Rush Share, seeing 16 rush attempts compared to 6 attempts for rookie JK Harvey. He also ran more routes (16 to 14) and caught both of his targets and handled 100% of the redzone work. Despite all that, he is projected at just 1.4% ownership against an IND team that allowed 1 FP per touch to MIA RBs last week (MIA had the fewest RB touches in week one). 

WR

• Former LSU standouts, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers both finished in the bottom-7 in catchable target rate (42%), with BTJ only catching 1-of-7 targets from Trevor Lawrence. That was the first time in seven games Thomas did not see 10 targets. For some perspective, Puka Nucua had a 91% catchable target rate in week one (10-of-11 targets deemed catchable). CIN allowed Joe Flacco to complete 67% of his passes last week, so I expect Thomas to bounce back at a significantly lower ownership % than last week, which has me loading back up on him in tournaments (2nd in unrealized air yards). 
  • On the missed connections in Week 1 to Thomas Jr., head coach Liam Coen was quoted: “We tried to get him a touch early… threw him a screen low… missed him on an in-breaker… missed him on a corner… and one on the sideline. That’s five catches right there to get him into the flow.” He also said he “fully anticipate[s] him being able to get going”, to get him involved early and at “every level,” aligning him inside/outside and using screens, seams, middle-of-field and deep shots to leverage his speed. 

• DeVonta Smith sees his fantasy points per game production increase by 26% with Dallas Goedert OUT. He has come along for the ride with Hurts going off in these matchups with KC, averaging 6 receptions for 97 yards (17.7 FP/g). He ran 78% of his routes from the slot last week, up from 55% last season. I have wanted to see more slot snaps from Smith since he got to PHI, so his Week 1 usage is encouraging. KC got destroyed last week by slot pass catchers, allowing Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey to combine for 8-110-1 from the slot. 

• Cedric Tillman was terribly mispriced last week on FanDuel ($4.7K, 2% owned). He got a $700 bump on FD, but somehow went down $100 on DK, this despite being first (tied with teammate Jerry Juedy) with 45 routes run (5-52-1). He did this on eight targets in a game script that did not play out like we hoped (33 combined points scored), but gets another chance this week as a 12-point road dog in BAL. In his only matchup vs. BAL last season Tillman went off for 7-99-2.

• Elic Ayomanor was 8th in yards, 12th in air yards percentage, 1st in unrealized air yards, and 7th in first-read target share. Cam Ward struggled in his first road start against a tough DEN defense (35% completion rate against), so it should only improve from here. LAR allowed CJ Stroud to complete 63% of his passes in week one, and while I expect the usage to flow back to Calvin Ridley now that he is free of Patrick Surtain, I still thought the rookie’s usage was worth noting while is price is just $3.2K on DK (3% projected ownership). 

TE

• Tyler Warren looked like a true “Alpha TE” in week one. Despite landing in a blowout that led to IND completely shut down the passing attack in the 2nd half (7 second half pass attempts), Warren still tied all TEs with a McBride with a 20.7% first read target share, leading the Colts with 9 targets (7-76-0). However, this only led to a $100 price increase on DK, likely due to the tough matchup with DEN. That also has his ownership lower than it should (6-10%), which has me back on him in week two. 

• Juwan Johnson has been a staple at the end of my best ball rosters for seemingly every year Underdog has been around, so I was thrilled to see him go nuclear in week one despite completely missing on him in DFS (8-76-0 on 11 targets). Now we need to decide how “sticky” this is for week 2, where he is still going to be under 10% owned. Johnson was 2nd among all TEs in routes run, 4th in “TE first read target share” behind only Bowers, McBride, and Warren, seeing a target on 25% of Spencer Rattler’s league high 46 week one pass attempts (tied with Allen and Drake Maye). Another reason this should carry over is the offensive scheme deployed by new head coach Kellen Moore, who led NO to the fastest pace in week one (69 offensive plays, 7th most). 

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

---

OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

---

Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

---

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Mac Jones
Breece Hall
Christian McCaffrey
Kendrick Bourne
Davante Adams
Cedric Tillman
Harold Fannin
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Broncos

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

---

Blue Chips

Christian McCaffrey

Touches + talent. It’s really as simple as that.

The 49ers are playing in a deeply competitive division, and they have aspirations of going deep into the playoffs. They cannot afford to drop a game in New Orleans, regardless of who is under center, and a big part of their game plan for winning this one will surely be CMC, as this offense is missing most of its main horses. On top of that, the Saints played at the fastest pace in the NFL last week (by far), running regular no-huddle, snapping the ball with more than 20 seconds remaining on the play clock, etc., which creates extra plays overall, and should ultimately create a few extra touches for CMC. Will he be the reason we win a tourney? Probably not. But he has a tremendous shot at providing a solid starting point on a roster, making him a strong option this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

---

Build-Arounds

---

Building Blocks

“Dawg Pound”

Cedric Tillman + Harold Fannin

Story:

“One player; $7.4k in salary”

Why It Works:

It’s fair to say the Browns will probably have to pass in this one. And if they are passing, there are four main guys who will be involved (Jeudy // Tillman // Njoku // Fannin). Somewhere in the range of 10 to 11 targets is a confident low-end projection for Tillman + Fannin, while 15+ targets wouldn’t be surprising. (If we played out this game a hundred times, there would easily be 10+ games, and maybe quite a few more than that, in which these two would combine for 15+ targets.) Thinking of this block as a $7.4k guy who should see 10-15 targets with short-area, intermediate, and downfield work helps us see its value. This is also a way to differentiate your Fannin rosters from all the other Fannin rosters that will be out there.

How It Works:

I’ve been playing around with the idea that, while this block obviously works with Flacco, the best way to play this block might be with Jalen Hurts. No, these two aren’t correlated to Hurts. But if you’re playing this block away from Flacco, and you’re playing some Hurts (see my Hurts writeup in the Bonus section below) without a stacking partner, this is a pairing that could help turn the math in your favor a bit.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Big D”

---

Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

He Can’t Do It On His Own

Amon-Ra St. Brown could always trip into a two-score game; but given the way he is used and the price tag he carries, his clearest pathway to being tourney-viable is a heavy-volume game. And in order for him to see heavy volume, the Bears probably need to be turning this one into a track meet. With this in mind, this rule says, “On 100% of rosters that have ARSB, include one of these two Bears wideouts” (the mechanics of the rule: ARSB is the locked player, saying “on rosters that include him”; 100 is the percent of ARSB rosters on which this should apply; and the last boxes say, “play at least two, and no more than two, players from this pool” (or: “play exactly two players from this pool, on 100% of rosters that include ARSB”)).

He Probably Won’t Do It On His Own

Ja’Marr Chase can hit for 25 DK points without Joe Burrow hitting. But if I’m paying up for Chase, I’m not telling a story of him scoring 25 points. Instead, I’m telling a story of how he wins me a tourney; and how he wins me a tourney is one of his monster games: 40+ points, etc. If Chase is posting a tourney-winner, Burrow is probably doing the same; and through the entirety of Chase’s career, this is how things have worked. It’s rare for Chase to post a tourney-winner without Burrow joining him, so this rule says, “On at least 85% of Ja’Marr Chase rosters, include Joe Burrow.”

He Probably Won’t Do It On His Own II

This is the same idea as the Chase rule above. CeeDee has gone for 32+ DK points in seven games over the last two years, and Dak has hit for strong to elite scores in five of those games. If CeeDee hits a tourney-winner, there’s a good chance Dak is involved.

Bonuses

---

If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Kyler Murray || Dak Prescott || Joe Burrow (with Trevor Lawrence trail bets) || Joe Flacco || Jalen Hurts || Mac Jones (biased toward Pearsall over Bourne on tighter builds, but with exposure to both; sometimes including CMC, sometimes not) || Justin Fields (with a mix of Breece and Wilson) >> a large pool this week, but it’s looking like I’ll be spreading exposure at QB/WR and concentrating exposure at RB/TE/DST, which allows me to lean into higher-confidence spots while providing myself opportunities to benefit from variance in spots where I don’t feel like there are as many clear/firm stances available to take.

RB ::

---

A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back::

• Christian McCaffrey – In the “don’t overthink it” role for this week is CMC, who had the league’s best role in Week 1 and has a matchup with a middling (at best) defense. The Saints offense plays at light speed as well, meaning more volume for the 49ers. He should be about $9k in this spot. 
• Breece Hall – The Jets may have had the heist of all heists, getting Tanner Engstrand as their offensive coordinator from the Lions despite Detroit having the same opening. Hall plays the Bills who just got lit up by a physical running game and are down their best defensive lineman. This should be a vintage Breece game.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – When a player has a huge game and then his team trades away his main competition, I pay attention. When that player is in the highest total game of the week and facing a defense we spent all of last year targeting, I don’t need much more convincing.
• Chase Brown – Brown had a “fine” game in Week 1, but where he really shines is in those high-scoring Bengals games. This week they are sporting the highest total game on the slate.
• Saquon Barkley – This is a huge matchup and the team is going to ride Barkley. This Chiefs defense is not what it used to be and Saquon could put the slate out of reach quickly with his game-breaking ability.
• De’Von Achane – The lone bright spot for Miami was Achane in Week 1. He had a 70% rushing share and 18% target share before they emptied the bench. This week, the offense should fare much better and his usage is elite.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Signal from the Noise

“He who thinks he knows, doesn’t know. He who knows that he doesn’t know, knows.” – Lao Tzu

Yeah, you probably had to read that a couple of times and it feels like something you’d crack out of a fortune cookie. But the point is dead-on for DFS. The best players don’t play prophet, predicting which wideout is about to have a two-touchdown, out-of-body experience. They line up probabilities with value and ownership, then squeeze the smallest edges. Over time, expected value tilts in their favor.

The results of last weekend’s games gave us more actionable data than the last seven months combined, but the sample is still barely a blip. Was that player usage a product of opponent-specific design? Game script? Or are those snap and target counts a dependable sign of things to come? The edge in Week 2 comes from separating the signal from the noise — and punishing the field’s rush to treat fresh numbers as gospel.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I will be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Hollywood Brown/DeVonta Smith

With the Chiefs pass-catcher room looking like an Island of Misfit Toys in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes funneled a ridiculous 16 targets to Hollywood Brown. Projection systems — and the field — are expecting more of the same against Philadelphia.

Both Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are priced steeply enough that Brown and DeVonta Smith can realistically post tourney-winning scores without needing their QBs to smash. That opens the door to leverage — sprinkling this WR mini into stacks built around cheaper quarterbacks like Drake Maye, Joe Flacco, or Mac Jones.

The bet here is that Kansas City’s success through Brown forces Hurts to open things up a bit, giving Smith a path to spike-week volume at a discount. You can certainly flip to A.J. Brown in this setup, but Smith’s $1K savings helps roster construction while still tying into the ceiling potential of an Eagles response.

Brown (17%), Smith (6%)

Christian McCaffrey/Chris Olave

I’ve had two massive binks in my DFS life (shoutout me), and Christian McCaffrey was the one common thread. At $7,500, I’m not letting 33% ownership scare me off — CMC is close to lock-button territory this week.

The key is pairing him with a lower-owned piece that tells a story of San Francisco getting pushed. If the Saints can apply pressure, it forces urgency from the Niners and could mean even more Mac Jones dump-offs to CMC.

Enter Chris Olave. He opened 2025 with a 26% target share and 29% of the team’s air yards, cementing himself as the alpha. If Olave sparks the Saints offense (at 6% ownership), it not only offsets CMC chalk but creates a correlated path to ceiling outcomes on both sides.

McCaffery (33%), Olave (6.8%)

Tee Higgins/Travis Hunter

Tee Higgins is shaping up as chalk this week. At roughly $2K cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase, the field will flock to him — but the production gap isn’t as wide as pricing suggests. When both have been healthy the past two seasons, Higgins has averaged nearly 7 targets and 70 yards per game, compared to Chase’s just over 8 targets and 80 yards. That’s a thinner margin than salaries imply, which makes Higgins perfectly viable as a one-off even at elevated ownership.

To keep his chalk from becoming a liability, I’m pairing Higgins with Travis Hunter. Hunter saw 8 targets (24% share) and brings explosive, game-breaking ability. If Hunter pops for a big play or two, it forces Cincinnati to keep pace through the air — creating a direct path for Higgins to continue smashing. 

Correlating Higgins with Hunter turns a popular play into part of a contrarian story, and unlike the pricier Chase/Brian Thomas Jr. combo — who almost certainly drag their QBs along for the ride if they hit 4x — this pairing can realistically get there without needing Burrow or Lawrence to break the slate.

Higgins (18%), Hunter (5%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

I’m feeling a HUGE BINK this week. See you sickos in Discord.

LFG!

Sonic

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the second slate.

Picking Games

Week 2 has seven games that piqued my interest:

• JAX/CIN (49)
• NYG/DAL (44.5)
• CHI/DET (46.5)
• BUF/NYJ (46.5)
• NE/MIA (43)
• CLE/BAL (45)
• SF/NO (40.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Jaguars @ bengals

The DFS game of the week won’t sneak up on anyone with a total towering several points above the slate. When there is a clear top game environment, I usually like to overstack that game or stay away from it, depending on what I think the chances are of it being the game you needed to win. That means even if I think the game will just be “solid,” I’m usually going to be underweight players from that game. This is one of the weeks where I’m going to overstack the top game environment. The Bengals had a curious game plan last week. They threw at a below-average situational neutral rate, after leading the league in that category a season ago. They also ranked 2nd to last in WR usage for Week 1. The Bengals are built around their passing game, and I think we will see them revert to heavily targeting their WRs against the Jags. Chase Brown is also an excellent click after seeing nearly all the backfield work in Week 1. I will have at least one Milly Maker lineup that uses an onslaught of Burrow/Brown/Chase/Higgins. The Jags are also easy to target. Brian Thomas is in a prime bounce-back spot, and Travis Etienne is priced like Tank Bigsby still plays in Jacksonville. You can make a case for a cheap Brenton Strange, or take a flyer on Dyami Brown with Travis Hunter supposedly set to play more corner this week. I’m currently leaning into a Lawrence/Etienne/Thomas/Chase game stack for my main lineup, and even if that isn’t the exact combination I land on, my primary stack on my main lineup will come from this game.

giants @ cowboys

This game has a middle-tier total, but its best outcomes could break the slate. It’s also an easy game to stack for DFS. Dak/Lamb/Pickens/Nabers game stacks are obvious, and if that ends up being the combination of the week, everyone will look back and think, “Well, that made sense.” One of the things that irks me the most is when I look back at the top lineup of the week and it’s an obviously foreseeable stack…that I didn’t play. This game has that type of feel to me, and I’m going to use the above game stack on one of my tighter builds. It’s also nice that because this game isn’t one of the higher totals on the slate, there won’t be a lot of people using a full game stack, which will make the lineup automatically more unique.

bears @ lions

This game has the widest range of outcomes on the slate. Both teams were disappointing in Week 1, but both are stocked with talent. Either one or both, could put up 40 points without it being a huge surprise. The Lions looked terrible last week, but they were playing the Packers, who look like a buzzsaw this year. Stacking Jared Goff with two or three of his pass catchers is an easy way to start a build, followed by a bring back of whoever is your favorite Bear. I’ll use Rome Odunze as my main bring-back, but I’ll also consider D’Andre Swift, who didn’t play well last week but saw a massive backfield opportunity share. Touches are king at RB, and I’ll also consider using Swift as a one-off play to save salary. There is a strong chance I’ll have a full game stack of this one for one of my tighter lineups.

Bills @ jets

This game feels like it has trap potential after both teams looked explosive in their openers. Even though there are paths to the downside, this game still provides easy DFS targets on the Jets with the Justin Fields to Garret Wilson connection looking like it will be unpriced to start the year. Did Keon Coleman break out? If you think he’s now the Bills clear WR1, he’s criminally underpriced in a matchup that is no worse than what he saw last week. If you think he was just a product of an explosive game environment last week, then he has the potential to be disappointing at what is likely to be higher than usual ownership after his big game. I tend to think he is amid a breakout year, and I’m likely to have this game stacked with either Allen/Coleman or Fields/Wilson on a tighter build. I almost never play a QB naked, but either of these QBs are candidates to played alone because of their value relative to price and rushing upside.

patriots @ dolphins

This is a game between two teams who looked bad on offense in Week 1. If you go on X, you might believe the Dolphins will never score another touchdown. On defense, their secondary was Storm Duck and the boys. Now their leader (who wasn’t good himself), Storm, is hurt. The Dolphins secondary is easily the worst in the league, so if their offense can find its footing, they have the makings of a shootout team. Speaking of facing the worst secondary in the league, everyone’s favorite preseason QB Drake Maye is priced like a punt this week. I’m not sure if I’ll use a game stack here on one of my tighter builds, but it is certainly on the fringe of making the cut.  

browns at ravens

This game hinges on how you feel about the Browns passing game. If you think it finds success, I’d recommend stacking this game from either side (especially the Ravens with Browns bring backs). I’m leaning towards an outcome where the Ravens win easily. That assessment will steer me towards Derrick Henry and the Ravens D as a correlated pairing on one of my tighter builds. I’ll leave the game stacks for Milly Maker only lineups, but will certainly use at least one or two of those game stacks that play out the idea of the Browns fighting back.

49ers at Saints

This game has a low total, but Saints offensive coordinator Kellen Moore plays at a frantic pace. The Saints are going to create play volume this season, and their target distribution looks highly concentrated between Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara. The 49ers are set to be led by Mac Jones, but he is one of the more competent backup QBs in the league. Their offense has been reduced to Christian McCaffrey and Rickey Pearsall. Even though this game isn’t projected to light up the scoreboard, high play volume combined with concentrated usage checks a lot of boxes for DFS. I don’t see myself fully stacking this game, but it has excellent one-off candidates.

Key Values

Harold Fannin ($3,100)

All the Browns pass catchers are values relative to their projected target volume. You can make a case for any of them as strong value plays, but Fannin is the cheapest and most egregiously underpriced. Fannin was used all over the formation in Week 1, including a snap as a Wildcat QB. He saw schemed touches and that kind of usage is often sticky week over week. Priced like a punt, with a realistic target projection of 5-7, Fannin is unlikely to kill you, and if he finds the end zone could be the free square you need to unlock other plays. I’m not going to overthink Fannin this week. 

Kayshon Boutte ($4,500)

Boutte led Patriots WRs in usage Week 1 and now gets matched up against the worst secondary in the league. One of the Patriots WRs is going to have a good game. I’ll take a swing on Boutte but would understand if you want to bet on this being the game Stephon Diggs establishes himself. Everyone’s favorite preseason QB is dirt cheap against the weakest secondary in the league. Maye didn’t look good in Week 1, but he still put up 17 fantasy points, which at his price, isn’t a disaster. If he can take a step forward and become the QB everyone saw at the end of last year, he looks like one of the best shots to score over 4X his salary this week. The Maye/Boutte stack is cheap enough that the rest of the lineup can go in any direction.

Chris Olave ($4,900)

Olave is coming off a 12-target game where he looked like the alpha WR on a team that is going to throw the ball a ton. He’s priced below $5,000, which makes him an obvious value as one of the cheapest players it’s possible to realistically project for double digit targets. Better yet, people will be scared away by the low total. Totals impact WRs’ fantasy scores the least of all the positions, and the Saints are going to create play volume. Olave is set to be the beneficiary.

Rome Odunze ($4,800)

Rome saw nine targets in Week 1 and is priced like a punt in a game that has the potential to be the highest scoring on the slate. He’s an easy bring back with Lions stacks and makes sense to include on rosters that stack this game from the Bears side. Ben Johnson doesn’t want to lay an egg in his return to Detroit. Johnson is going to involve Odunze early and often. I’m going to use him before his price increases. 

Travis Etienne ($5,700)

Etienne is priced like he’s still in a timeshare. Bhayshul Tuten will get some touches, but Etienne looked great in Week 1 and is going to be the clear lead back in the best game environment of the week. I’m surprised Etienne hasn’t gotten more steam this week, but ownership projections are calling for moderate usage. I’m going to be overweight on Etienne. 

Slate Breakers

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 2 Topics

1. Show Us Who You Really Are

2. Adjusting To The Times

3. Floating Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

---

1. Show Us Who You Really Are

The Question ::

We often start The Oracle with the question, “what makes this slate unique?” However, this week it is fairly obvious. The first week of the season is always exciting and we can certainly learn a lot about players, teams, and situations from seeing actual live game action for the first time. That being said, as noted on “The Workshop” this week, teams can only play who is on their schedule. This creates a scenario where we get a false sense of what to expect from some teams based on the results of their opening game, and it happens on both extremes. On one hand there are teams who looked great but it had more to do with their opponents struggles or players whose skill sets fit perfectly to have a big game against their opponent’s scheme. On the other end, there are teams who struggled but it was likely caused by tough competition or players who were hampered by bad matchups. 

The Answers ::

JM >>

I love this question. I’ll also add: each team in the NFL is somewhat closely matched, from a talent perspective. And every week, each team’s coaches are looking at what they did well, what they did poorly, and what they want to emphasize and improve on that week. Will the Dolphins come out flat again this week just because they did last week? Will the Lions continue to look lost just because they looked lost in Week 1? If some of these things happened as an outlier in Week 7, we wouldn’t think anything of it, but because this was Week 1, we can have a tendency to overrate things. We should trust what we saw in Week 1, but we should also balance this against what we felt we knew heading into the season.

As to the meat of the question:

I see a lot of talk about how the Ravens looked unstoppable until they stopped themselves, etc. I still expect the Ravens to be a juggernaut this year, but we should also remember that they are built in such a way that they are pretty much guaranteed to be a problem for Buffalo. The Browns are better equipped to at least make life more difficult on the Ravens, but the general belief this week seems to be, “If they did that to the Bills, just imagine what they’ll do to the Browns.”

The Cowboys gave the defending Super Bowl champs all they could handle, and the Giants are a dramatically inferior team. The public sentiment around the Cowboys was not positive heading into the season, so it’s probably easy to overlook how impressive they were in Week 1. The Giants have that excellent defensive line, of course; but the potential is still there for the Cowboys to flatten New York in this one.

Speaking of the Lions: they played the Packers’ defense in Week 1. The Bears are not the Packers.

Finally, the Colts looked awesome against the Dolphins. It’ll be a much tougher task against the Broncos.

Xandamere >>

Love this question! I’ll go by position instead of by team….

RB: James Conner. Last week on the road vs. a Saints D that has historically been tough due to scheme, I mostly stayed away from Conner. This week against a Panthers D that has been absolutely trampled by opposing running backs all last year as well as by Travis Etienne in Week 1 I think he’s a much stronger play. Also Breece Hall – that’s partly matchup-driven (BUF looks like an easier matchup on the ground than PIT) and part of it is driven by how the Jets looked like a pretty capable offense last week, giving me more confidence in their ability to find overall success and thus ceiling for individual plays. 

WR: Puka Nacua. I don’t really love playing guys against the Texans D, but against the Titans he looks much tastier. Malik Nabers looks like a better spot (if you trust the Giants to not fall flat on their faces again – but he makes a nice play away from the chalky Dallas D). Garrett Wilson goes in my “the Jets may be better than expected” bucket. 

TE: Nothing really jumps out for me here.

Hilow >>

I think the easy answer is everyone. The stats can be very misleading early in the season because we really don’t have the sample size to make sweeping conclusions. I alter my own process during this time to be heavier on the film, backed up by the stats, instead of being overly reliant on trends that are not yet trends at all. I also want to shift the mindset early in the season to view Week 1 as “preseason Week 4,” in that we now have two seasons with lower overall scoring since the league shortened the preseason. Teams are still figuring out their identities, coaches are still tinkering, and players are getting their bodies up to speed for the long haul. We’re likely to see more injuries early in the season as well (Xavier Worthy, 49ers, Jayden Reed, Austin Ekeler, etc). All of that to say, the process is slightly different early in the season now.

But to more directly answer the question, I mentioned early in the week on DFS Labs that there are some teams that I want to be attacking after Week 1, based on their film – those teams were the Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Panthers. So, give me Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr, Kayshon Boutte, James Conner, and Trey McBride for my player answers here.

Mike >>

The Colts had about the best setup you can imagine at home against the Dolphins who apparently thought it was another preseason game. This week they have a much stiffer test with the Broncos, and I will be extremely interested in how they approach it.

Cincinnati played conservatively on both sides of the ball as they didn’t seem particularly worried about the Browns offense. This week they face a Jaguars team that didn’t look great offensively themselves, but who has a lot of weapons and the Bengals must take seriously. I am interested in if the Bengals try to get more pressure on Trevor Lawrence to force mistakes and/or if they push the tempo early to get their passing game going.

The Eagles faced a Cowboys defense that was very vanilla and conservative in Week 1, leading to a grinder of a gameplan and zero downfield passing. This week they face an always aggressive Chiefs defense who plays a lot of man coverage and just got dusted by the Chargers receivers. The narrative around the Philly passing game could be very different after Week 2 than it was after Week 1.

---

2. Adjusting To The Times

The Question ::

While Week 1 gives us our first real glimpse of these teams in live action, it is also the first time that these coaching staffs get to see how their team responds and get a feel for what is working and what isn’t. Since the NFL cut the Preseason down to three games instead of four, we have seen the opening week be relatively “sloppy”. Just as we watch the games and make evaluations, the coaches get to do the same and are then likely to adjust some things. Being able to predict adjustments like that can often allow us to be ahead of the field, as the field generally waits to see something first and then react to it. What are a couple of situations (player usage, play calling tendencies, aggression, etc.) that stood out to you in Week 1 that you are expecting coaching staffs to make adjustments on for Week 2?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

As The Scroll has evolved over the years, I’ve tried (to some success) to adjust Willing to Lose with it. What does this mean? Well, if you’re relatively new here, in 2025, The Scroll is fully comprehensive. It’s now at the point where no stones are left unturned. You’re prepared, informed, and ready for each and every slate. But this piece, as just one element of the larger docket, is intended to bring it all together for some of you crazies out there looking to battle the thousands upon thousands for life-changing money (Millionaire-Maker tournaments, typically) while not risking thousands upon thousands of dollars.

The challenge is obvious. This won’t happen very frequently. There is no get-rich-quick scheme. So you have to put in the time and effort – sometimes weeks, months, years. It’s why you need to consume all of the other content at One Week Season, as well. Because you won’t get the best plays here, and you likely won’t get the second tier either. But what you will get is a core (usually a three-pack) or strategies that I am deploying without consulting others (for the most part). Said another way: this article should always represent me being me, and in turn, you being you in building lineups.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

I’m a believer that ownership matters. I’m also a believer that ownership doesn’t matter if you are charting your own path in a given lineup. As long as you are thinking uniquely (through the lens of your own thinking), you can be comfortable that your lineup won’t be duped. And the only way to think uniquely is to build opinions, be bold over time, and sharpen, sharpen, sharpen your process. Your outlook should always be positive, that one of these weeks it’s going to all come together for you.

So, read on at your own discretion – especially if you’re looking for sometimes irrational inspiration – and then choose if you agree or disagree. That’s the beauty of writing content, and that’s the beauty of consuming it! 

Here’s where I’ll be lining up on Sunday…

Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Brenton Strange + CeeDee Lamb

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 2 Overview

The NFL took the fun away already, shortening the Week 2 Afternoon slate to only three games after last week’s awesome slate of four. I always prefer four to six game slates, but these shorter slates are still fun. The biggest difference in these smaller slates is the fact that it is far easier and more likely for a team to have four or five players in the winning lineup. If one game goes nuts, or two of the games are total duds, things really escalate quickly in terms of the one optimal game having more players who separate.

Finding ways to get creative on these slates can be a fun exercise that can help you evaluate game environments for the Main Slate as well. Pairing defenses with players from the same team, playing a defense against primary players from the other team, playing multiple primary pass catchers without their quarterback, and finding the cheap player who doesn’t see much volume but hits for a big play are all quick ways to differentiate yourself in large field tournaments where so many rosters will be built in similar ways.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback::

• Justin Fields – Elite dual threat ability and a modest salary. Easy and clear stacking options. Fields gives you a high floor and a high ceiling.
• Kyler Murray – Great matchup, dual threat ability, and a concentrated offense to stack him with.
• Drake Maye – If Daniel Jones can do it, so can Maye. This Dolphins defense showed signs in Week 1 of possibly being historically bad.
• Josh Allen – If you can find the salary, it is never a terrible idea to pay up for Allen. This Jets defense made Aaron Rodgers look young again in Week 1. Just imagine what Allen can do if the game environment takes off.

Running Back::

• Christian McCaffrey – In the “don’t overthink it” role for this week is CMC, who had the league’s best role in Week 1 and has a matchup with a middling (at best) defense. The Saints offense plays at light speed as well, meaning more volume for the 49ers. He should be about $9k in this spot. 
• Breece Hall – The Jets may have had the heist of all heists, getting Tanner Engstrand as their offensive coordinator from the Lions despite Detroit having the same opening. Hall plays the Bills who just got lit up by a physical running game and are down their best defensive lineman. This should be a vintage Breece game.
• Saquon Barkley – This is a huge matchup and the team is going to ride Barkley. This Chiefs defense is not what it used to be and Saquon could put the slate out of reach quickly with his game-breaking ability.
• Derrick Henry – Death. Taxes. Derrick Henry touchdowns.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – When a player has a huge game and then his team trades away his main competition, I pay attention. When that player is in the highest total game of the week and facing a defense we spent all of last year targeting, I don’t need much more convincing.
• Chase Brown – Brown had a “fine” game in Week 1, but where he really shines is in those high-scoring Bengals games. This week they are sporting the highest total game on the slate.

Wide Reciever::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Lamar Jackson + James Cook

Maximus (Steve Kleisath) is a Fanduel focused player who specializes in smaller-field contests under 1,000 entries

---

Week 2 is upon us and another good tournament offering from FD to make mention of…

The 300K Sun NFL Snap with 67,500 spots available. This tourney may finish with overlay and 50% (!) of the field gets paid with $40,000 up top. It’s a 20 entry max at $4 a team, and while I am more of a small field player, I will keep getting roped in with these fun early season deals.

With Week 1 in the rear view mirror, we can start to expect player pricing to become more restrictive in the building of rosters, but there is still great value to be found so let’s go digging…

QB

Dak Prescott – $7,300

While his overall numbers from Week 1 don’t look great on the face of it, my eye test along with 34 pass attempts was telling me that the Cowboys will be pass heavy this season. They were a couple of Ceedee Lamb dropped passes away from potentially pulling off a major upset on the road against the Super Bowl Champs of last season.

The Cowboys have their home opener against the New York Giants in Week 2, with extended rest from playing on Thursday the week prior, a 25 point Team Total, and Ceedee Lamb looking to make up for the drops in Week 1. A 300+ passing game is well within range for Dak this week which merits bonus points on FD this year.

RB

WR

George Pickens – $6,000

Let’s go ahead and hitch George Pickens with Dak Prescott from above. Pickens had a few deep targets from Dak that created a pass interference call against CB Quinyon Mitchell in Week 1 and Pickens gets a more suspect secondary in Week 2. The Giants also lost linebacker Micah McFadden for a while to a foot injury sustained in Week 1. With another week with Dak in the books, and a price that is $2,700 less than CeeDee, give me Pickens this week!

TE

Juwan Johnson – $5,000

Johnson signed a three-year deal for $30.75 million with $21.25 million guaranteed prior to the regular season start. He’s coming off of an 8 catch, 11 target Week 1, and with Forest Moreau and Taysom Hill unavailable until Week 4, Juwan Johnson is the only show in town at TE for the Saints. The Saints kept it close against the Cardinals, and facing an injured Niners team at home in Week 2, they have a chance to do it again. This could leave Johnson in a spot for volume and production for the second week in a row.

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• Adding some of the elite NFL offenses (and QBs) to this week’s player pool is my first thought to consider as I start to build my main FD rosters for the week. We head into Week 2 with tighter pricing overall and more expensive star power to spend our funds on but there is still plenty of value to be had this week, especially at WR, and several ways to build strong teams that have paths to first-place finishes.
  • Adding teams like the Bills, Eagles, and Ravens to this week’s player pool now gives us access to three of the top four dual-threat QBs who were usually among the top passers drafted in fantasy leagues this summer. These are a few of the true difference-makers in fantasy football and they are logically the three most expensive QB options available this week. They should each be among the handful of highest-owned QBs on the slate with Lamar Jackson projecting to be the most-rostered QB by the field.
  • The Bills and Ravens, off of their legendary SNF game where they combined for an incredible 81 real-life points, have not been repriced to reflect Week 1 fantasy scoring or real-life usage. This is most impactful at WR, where the top-two fantasy scoring WRs from Week 1, Zay Flowers ($6,300) and Keon Coleman ($5,300), should be among the most-rostered players at the position this week. This will be especially true amongst their WR peers in similar price ranges.
  • The Eagles played in last week’s season opener. That game saw little passing volume for their WRs, causing some decreased prices in that group. Now, TE Dallas Goedert is slated to miss the week, which should afford star WRs A.J. Brown ($7,500) and DeVonta Smith ($6,400) considerably more opportunities than their four combined targets earned last week.
• There are simply more star players on this slate than last week, especially at QB. There are some fine lower-cost QB options and certainly some other game stacks that I’m interested in, but any of the big three QBs could end up being the guy you had to have on FD this week.

Running Back Approach

👉Subscribe to OWS youtube 👈

SOLO SHIP

ANGLES – JM

BLOCK PARTY – JM & PETER OVERZET

SEARCHING FOR CEILING – HILOW & RICH HRIBAR

PROPS TALK – JM & JREASY

DFS LABS – DK – STATATL & CHEESEMAN

BIAS CHECK – MATT PRICH

DFS LABS – FD – MIKE JOHNSON & MAXIMUS

dfs labs – dk – hilow & Cheeseman