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The Scroll Week 17

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    Angles

    Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

    Week 17 Angles

    OWS Fam! —

    Welcome to Week 17.

    It’s almost a bit of culture shock moving to a 13-game Main Slate this weekend (good prep for the 15-game Main Slate in Week 18, I guess!), and as you might expect from a 13-game slate, there is a lot to pay attention to in this one.

    Missing from the Main Slate are the Jets, the Browns, the Lions, the Cowboys, the Packers, and the Vikings, which means we don’t get to target the Amari Cooper encore (nor do we get to fade a guy whose “upside at low ownership” we’ve been hammering all season, one week after his biggest game of the year when the field would have finally woken up and rostered him at too high of a level), we don’t get to target the Breece Hall encore (wow!), we don’t get to target the elite weapons on the Lions, Cowboys, and Vikings, and we don’t get to take advantage of the sneaky edges the Packers are able to provide. And actually, this is a bit interesting, as Amari, Breece, ARSB, Justin Jefferson, and Packers pass catchers were among the highest-owned players in the OWS community last week — and yet, we still have 26 teams to choose amongst on this week’s Main Slate.

    The highest team total on the slate belongs to the 49ers at 31.25 as they travel to take on the hapless defense of the Commanders. It will be interesting to see if there is any overreaction to the score/statistics from the 49ers’ game against the Ravens (as we’ll explore this week: they didn’t play as poorly as the score/statistics would indicate) — though I have to imagine the DFS field is intelligent enough, at this point, to still lean into this spot.

    The second-highest team total on the slate belongs to the Eagles at 29.25 in their home game against the Cardinals. While the 49ers are taking on a Washington defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass, the Eagles are taking on a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against BOTH the run and the pass. These “top two team totals” appear to be in a class of their own this week, in terms of “percentage chances of these teams hitting for a big offensive day.”

    The third-highest team total on the slate belongs to the Bills, who have had their challenges against Belichick’s squad over the years, but who nevertheless tend to find a way to put up points in this matchup (starting from their most recent, the Bills have point totals of 25 // 35 // 24 // 47 // 33 in their last five games against the Pats). The Bills don’t fall into the same “good offense in a soft matchup” category as the 49ers and Eagles, but they have pathways to getting the job done.

    I took the time to highlight these top three offenses because things get a bit weird after this, with the Kansas City Chiefs (the same Kansas City Chiefs who have topped 21 points only two times in their last eight games!!!) implied to score 25.75 at home against the Bengals…and with every other team on this slate implied to score 25 or fewer.

    While the 49ers and Eagles clearly stand out at the top of this slate, with the Bills a team that won’t surprise us if they hang a big number as well, this slate is expansive enough — and intriguing enough — to provide us with a number of “wide range of outcomes” game environments that could tilt to the upside.

    The OWS Fam dominated the tops of tournaments the last time the Dolphins and Ravens played, as we always talk about how shootouts almost always develop through explosive players hitting for big plays…and this played out to the tune of a 42-38 Dolphins win in Week 2 of last year. There are clear pathways along which this game could be lower-scoring, and there are also clear pathways to the Ravens controlling this one throughout, but a shootout cannot be written off…and if it happens, it has clear “top of the slate” potential.

    With the best red-zone defense in the NFL, the Titans don’t usually allow a lot of points (in spite of their struggles to defend the pass), and they don’t typically score a lot of points either; but if C.J. Stroud is under center for the Texans in a must-win game, they could easily find a way to convert their yards into touchdowns, and the Titans have the weapons to hang with the Texans if this game trends to the upside.

    The Saints have been inconsistent, but when they are at their best, they are certainly capable of putting together a high-scoring effort against a defense like the Bucs, and the Bucs have shown explosive upside of their own, creating an interesting landscape in this critical NFC South game.

    And while the rest of the games on the Main Slate might fall into the “stretch of the imagination” bucket with regards to shootouts, there is no shortage of remaining teams capable of posting noteworthy efforts on their own, including the aggressive/creative Colts against the energetic Raiders, the banged-up/downtrodden Jags against the Panthers, the exciting/explosive Rams against the blitz-happy Giants, and probably a few others that I might not even get to in roster construction myself this week.

    With so much to sort through, so much to think about, and so much to potentially like, we have a bit of a “throwback” slate, to where it feels more like past seasons than like “what we’ve had so far in 2023” (or at least: it feels like a throwback slate for how deep into the season we are, when injuries have always piled up, and pricing is always tight).

    There is definite edge available to us this week.

    Let’s go out there and find it!

    Shoutout to the OWS Fam!

    On Wednesday morning, I had a chance to finally catch up on the Binks channel, and I ended up having to pick and choose among over 40 screenshots from the OWS Fam (which, of course, doesn’t even include users who don’t post their wins in the Binks channel!), including the OWS Fam’s fourth win of the season in The Slant(!!!) and a whole slew of other first-place finishes and big payouts.

    What a year it’s been.

    Let’s finish strong.

    Shoutout to Props Insider!

    Remember in the Angles Pod when I highlighted Props Profit at $10,000 and said that one week you were going to look up and it would be $12,000? Well, we passed that mark a long time ago, and the steady climb has continued.

    Props Profit is now at $18,223 since March(!), with over $4,400 earned in NBA (still six months of NBA left!), over $1,600 earned in NFL (12.8% ROI!), and over $2,400 earned in college basketball (an absolutely unreal 17.4% ROI!).

    Reminder: Week passes are only $39(!).

    I’ll see you on the site throughout the weekend.

    And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
    -JM

    The Workbook

    Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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    Around The Industry

    Introduced in 2023, ‘Around The Industry’ provides a snapshot of sentiments from respected voices in the DFS and fantasy spaces.

    NOTE 1: Contributors’ scores are tallied each week, with a cash prize going to the leader at the end of the season

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    This is a 13-game slate. Let’s say that again for the people in the back – this is a 13-game slate. Look back at the scores required to ship GPPs in the first four weeks of the season, which was the last time we had 13-game slates. Okay, I’ll save you the trouble. We are highly likely to need 240-250 DK points to ship major GPPs in Week 17. Yes, pricing was a factor early in the season, but the fact that we have three to four more games on this slate when compared to the previous half of the season through bye weeks and special scheduling means there are more opportunities for outlier production to occur. In other words, it is statistically probable that more players post 95 percent plus outcomes with more games, which means more teams, which means more players, on the slate. That means that our recent comfort zone of 4x salary multipliers is not likely to cut it this week. That means that players priced below $5,000 that put up 15-18 DK points are highly unlikely to matter on this slate. That means that we absolutely must be attacking strong ranges of outcomes vigorously, with additional emphasis placed on raw point totals and potential ceiling in Week 17.

    Before we jump into the meat and potatoes, let’s quickly discuss what is important on this slate. That process has treated us well during the second half of the 2023 season, which is a result of a shift in my own process after I started the season in a slump, tried to shift to MME play, and then forced a reset to refocus on what has made me such a profitable DFS player throughout my career.

    There are four primary points of emphasis on this slate (and they should likely be viewed in this order) – the 49ers, the Rams, the Eagles, and the Dolphins-Ravens game. The first three are true primary points of emphasis while the fourth should more be considered for its lofty game total, which, as we know, should primarily be viewed as a median outcome. More on this below.

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

    CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best running back in the game, with the best running back role in the game, on the team with the highest Vegas implied team total in Week 17. Checks out. That said, let’s be honest with the fact that Christian McCaffrey has failed to top 25 DK points eight times this season (out of 15 games), which is the bare minimum score you would need to feel good about playing him at his prohibitive salary.

    ZAMIR WHITE

    EXPANSIVE CHALK. Zamir White has served as the lead back for the Raiders for the last two weeks while Josh Jacobs has been out. In those games, he has seen running back opportunity counts of 21 and 23 while playing snap rates of 70 and 76 percent. That’s borderline elite volume, in a matchup that had yielded 27.6 DK points per game this season (third most), at a price of only $5,100. Yes, White has clear paths to failure with very little pass game involvement, but that profile has to be treated as one of the best, if not the best, top point per dollar range of outcomes on the slate.

    GERALD EVERETT

    EXPANSIVE CHALK. Look, I get it, the Denver defense has been much better of late but has continued to struggle to contain opposing tight ends, allowing 16.7 DK points per game to the position (most in the league). That said, Everett is a 60-70 percent snap rate player with 11 total red zone targets (in 13 games played) this season and a 3.8 aDOT. Miss me with this nonsense.

    CHALK BUILD::

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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate


    OWS Fam ::

    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


    The Grid ::

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

    Blue Chips

    :: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Building Blocks

    :: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

    Bonuses

    :: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


    Sunday Morning Update

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    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

    Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

    Tyrod Taylor
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire
    Zamir White
    Puka Nacua
    Rashid Shaheed
    Michael Wilson
    Darren Waller
    George Kittle
    Broncos

    Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

    Buy-In:

    Free

    Rules:

    Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

    Prizes:

    1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
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    3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
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    Blue Chips

    Rams // 49ers // Eagles

    We’ll get deeper into this in the Building Blocks section of my Player Grid (I would also recommend listening to this week’s Angles Pod — on the OWS YouTube channel, or on the OWS podcast feed — to get a clearer sense of how I’m seeing this slate from a macro/strategy perspective), but the short of it is :: there is no “individual Blue Chip play” on this slate (according to my definition of a Blue Chip), but there are a few sources of certainty, as the concentrated Rams are playing the Giants, the 49ers are playing the Commanders, and the Eagles are playing the Cardinals. It’s likely that we get at least one score of 27+ DK points from each of these teams — and if scores of 27+ DK points prove to be in short supply this week (which is also likely), rosters that have two or three pieces from these offenses are going to have a better shot than most at reaching the tops of the leaderboards.

    “Light Blue” Chips

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    Build-Arounds

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    Building Blocks

    “Dr. Howard Bannister”
    Zamir + CEH + Deebo + Kupp
    Story:

    In the 1970s comedy classic What’s Up, Doc?, Dr. Howard Bannister is wearing his name tag upside-down at a conference, and he has no idea what people mean when they keep telling him, “You’re upside-down.” Same as Dr. Howard Bannister’s name tag: this build is upside-down against what the field will be looking to do. The story: “CMC and Kyren score in the high-teens to low-20s.”

    Why It Works:

    CMC and Kyren are great plays. But the field is expressing high levels of confidence in the story of “CMC and Kyren hitting” — and while (again) that’s very much within the realm of reasonable possibilities, it’s also possible that both of these guys score in the high-teens to low-20s. Kyren has scored 20.2 or fewer DK points in three of his last five games — and in these three games, Kupp has a game of 28.5, while Puka has games of 26.9 and 36.0. Similarly, CMC has scored 22.3 or fewer DK points in four of his last seven games — and in these four games, Deebo has games of 37.0 and 38.8, and Kittle has price-considered smashes of 22.9 and 23.6. Ownership on Kupp, Puka, Deebo, and Aiyuk are low, and if CMC and Kyren prove to be overpriced this week, we’ll not only see a large chunk of the field getting hurt by this, but we’ll also probably see one of the other pieces on their teams hitting for a low-owned big game. This is the type of spot where we want to let strategy dictate our decisions, rather than making our decisions through the lens of “predictions.” What would make us the most money over time, if we could play out this slate over and over again? — going overweight pass catchers on these teams. I still like CMC and Kyren plenty this week, but going “upside down” here is hugely +EV.

    How It Works:

    If CMC and Kyren score in the high-teens or low-20s and your cheaper running backs (White and CEH in this example, but could also be guys in the $6k range if you want) are able to match that score, you’ll be WAY ahead of the field, as you’ll have the same score as the field at RB, but you’ll also have a shot at a pair of monster WR scores that the field won’t have the salary to chase. Given the leverage and the available ceiling if this approach clicks into place as “the best way to build this week,” you won’t have to worry much about strategy or ownership on the rest of your roster with this building block in place.

    POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

    The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

    “Reagler”

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    Bonuses

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    If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

    This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

    If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

    QB ::

    Hurts || Lamar || Mahomes || Stroud || Purdy || Stafford || Carr || Tyrod

    RB ::

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    A Wrap ::

    I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    -JM

    Mike’s Player Grid

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests


    Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!


    The Core

    This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

    Running Back ::

    Tier 1
    • Christian McCaffrey – In this matchup, it honestly feels like it would be more surprising for CMC to score only one touchdown than it would be if he scores three.
    • D’Andre Swift – Swift quietly has 20 touches in each of his last two games. While he has been frustrating to roster and watch Jalen Hurts steal all of the goal-line touchdowns, it must be noted how close he is to breaking through. He has been tackled at the 1-yard line in each of the last two games. Had he gotten in both times, he would have had Draftkings scores of 15.6 and 21.3 without reaching the 100-yard bonus and while catching only two passes. I could see the Eagles using Swift as a receiver more in this spot against a conservative Cardinals defense and this could be a spot where they preserve Jalen Hurts a bit and reward Swift for being a good sport about Hurts taking so many of the TDs.
    • Zamir White – The Raiders are going to run the ball – a lot. This is a solid matchup and White is mispriced for his role and volume. 
    • Kyren Williams – Since returning from injury, Williams has touched the ball at least 22 times and gone over 100 scrimmage yards in every game. The only game that he did not reach the end zone was against the Ravens and their top-ranked defense. This week he faces the Giants and their 27th-ranked run defense in a must-win game.
    tier 2
    • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (If Pacheco misses) – The Bengals are an elite matchup and CEH will have an elite role if Isiah Pacheco is not cleared from his concussion. Hard to pass that up at a modest salary.
    • Travis Etienne – Has an elite matchup against the Panthers and their mediocre run defense. This is a must-win game for the Jaguars that Trevor Lawrence has been ruled out of, leaving Etienne to carry the offense.
    • Austin Ekeler – A great matchup and the likely centerpiece of the offense. Ekeler has his lowest salary of the season.

    Tight End ::

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    Papy’s Pieces

    Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

    The Board
    • AZ // PHI (48.0) and SF // Wash (49.5) stand out as the top game totals but neither game is expected to be competitive with SF (-13) and Philly (-11.5) being the second and third largest favorites on the slate. 
    • MIA // BAL (47) has a total just behind the top two games but is expected to be much more competitive with the Ravens (-3) installed as slight home favorites.
    • CIN // KC (44), TEN // HOU (44), LAR // NYG (43.5), LV // IND (42.5), NO // TB (42.5), PITT // SEA (41) all have moderate totals. These are the games that are likely to produce a lowish-owned player who hits for a big game.
    • The largest favorite of the week is the Bills (-14) who are at home against the Patriots in a game with a low (40) total where the Patriots are expected to do almost no scoring.
    • ATL // CHI (38), CAR // JAX (38), and LAC // DEN (36.5) make up the bottom of the slate and are the three clear worst game environments. All three games feature at least one team with a rookie or backup starting at quarterback.
    Pawn – WR Darius Slayton ($3,400)

    A lot of this slate comes down to how you want to handle the top two offenses (Philly // SF) and the top game environment (Mia @ Balt). Most lineups are going to focus on those games, and since everyone desirable in the most attractive games is expensive, it’s not going to be easy to fill out the rest of your roster in a week when value is relatively limited. Slayton isn’t a sexy pick, but he plays almost every snap and is a WR1 who is priced like a punt. He makes a nice bringback on Rams stacks or in a mini correlation play with Kyren Williams ($8,300), who is one of the most attractive running backs on the slate. Slayton is priced around guys like Justin Watson ($3,400), Jonathan Mingo ($3,500), D.J. Chark ($3,600), Michael Wilson ($3,500), and Rondale Moore ($3,600). One of those guys is probably going to produce a score that opens the slate, but over half of that list is also likely to produce a roster killing dud. Give me Slayton out of the group, who is playing in one of the better game environments and has shown he can produce with Tyrod at the helm. One caveat is that Slayton is currently the beneficiary of the “Monday Night Discount” and people like to play guys in that situation. His ownership might be higher than it should be for a player whose most likely outcome is a brick. If you want to ensure low ownership, I’d go with Mingo. Mingo is a low confidence play, but he’s always on the field, has a good matchup, and should carry under 5% ownership.

    Knight – WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,600)

    Shaheed paced the Saints WRs in snaps last week (82%). While Chris Olave ($6,800) is the Saints WR1 and a strong play in his own right, Shaheed has been closer to a WR2 than a situational deep threat. Shaheed has a reputation for being a boom-or-bust player, but his role has evolved, and he’s seen 9 // 4 // 5 // 9 targets over his past four healthy games. The Bucs have been one of the best matchups to target with enemy passing games, and the Saints are likely to tilt more pass heavy than usual in a must win division game. Derrick Carr has battled injuries all year, but he finally looked healthy last week and threw a season high 40 times. Maybe the Saints were limiting Carr’s passing attempts because he was always playing through pain? If Carr throws over 40 times this week, Shaheed is a good candidate to see 8-10 targets, which gives him more floor than his reputation would indicate. He’s one of the few players priced below $5,000 who has slate winning upside, which makes him a player I’ll be featuring in my tighter builds that don’t use Olave.

    Bishop – RB Clyde-Edwards Helaire ($5,300) & Zamir White ($5,100)

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

    The Big One

    Our last real slate of the year and it’s a massive 13-gamer. We’ll need to nail multiple low-owned plays and group them together to take down these large field tournaments.

    I’m gonna be so bummed when I ship the Milly and only have a few hours to spend it before the tax year ends. Tough times.

    Secondary Core-Relations

    We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

    A.J. Brown/Greg Dortch

    AJB is on the list of dudes that can break this slate. At 5% ownership, it’s a no-brainer for me to get at least 2.5x the field. It won’t be easy at his $8600 price tag though. Since we’ll need some salary relief, let’s do it in a way that correlates and provides a solid floor. Dortch performs about as consistently as anyone in his $4200 price range due to his volume of catchable targets, and as we witnessed last week, he has the speed to take advantage of mistakes in the secondary. The Eagles are thin in the defensive backfield and Kyler Murray and company will likely be playing from behind resulting in a high pass rate. Even in a neutral game script, I expect Arizona will elect not to run into the formidable Eagles defensive front. My eyes popped when I saw his projected ownership at 0.8%. Sign me up for pieces of Dortch as well as a sprinkling of Michael “double goose egg” Wilson.

    WHAT IF Jalen Hurts leans on his alpha wide receiver in a must-win game and Kyler Murray chucks it 40+ times to keep pace?  

    I’ll ask Bink Machine to put Dortch in 40% of my AJB rosters. 

    A screenshot of a computer

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    George Pickens/Tyler Lockett

    Pickens 2.5%. Lockett 8.2%

    This game has some interesting angles to consider. Pickens showed some chemistry with 8th string QB Mason Rudolph last week and may be playing from behind at Seattle on Sunday afternoon. The “afternoon” part of this bears mention because we could have some late swap situations developing here. If Kenneth Walker (shoulder, illness) sits, and the news comes late, Zach Charbonnet becomes an intriguing late swap candidate. If news of a Charbonnet start breaks early, he could become highly owned at a comfortable $4600 price, and he’d then be someone we would swap off, should our rosters be trailing the pack. Utilize the flex (see Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and stay on your toes!

    Tyler Lockett feels like a play that falls into a category that JM refers to regularly. He’s had solid non-TD results in two of the last three weeks and he fell just short of the 100-yard bonus in each. If things come together this week and his 24% target share results in the bonus and an end zone trip, Lockett becomes a valuable piece at $5700. 

    Jonathan Taylor/Davante Adams 

    If you want some leverage off the Zamir White chalk, look no further than same-game running back Taylor (3.9%) and high-volume stud teammate Adams (8.7%). I’ll be paring these two in some lineups that utilize some of the cheaper QB stacks like the Saints, Giants, and Cardinals.

    Tyreek Hill/Gus Edwards (FanDuel)

    FanDuel scoring is TD-dependent, and this game has a healthy 46.5 total. The field appears convinced that Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers will be the TD scorers on the Baltimore side, while Reek is projecting as the highest-owned Miami player at a paltry 8.2%.   

    WHAT IF the touchdowns come from proven touchdown-makers Gus Edwards and Tyreek Hill?

    Hill can break any slate at any time, in any matchup. This matchup sucks but that’s why we get him at single-digit ownership. This looks way better if Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton is unable to play through his knee injury. 

    For Gus to smash at 2% ownership, we just need variance to tilt in his favor. Ravens get multiple 1st and goal situations and stuff it in Gus’ belly. He could also rack up 4th quarter yards if Ravens get out to a lead and wear down the traveling Dolphins defense. 

    He is the meat in a tasty salary sandwich between chalk Zamir White and Ezekiel Elliott, making him a nice “leverage” piece from a price pivot standpoint.

    LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

    Running Back

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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    “Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong.” – Peter McIntyre

    It’s perfectly natural to feel overwhelmed by this week’s 13-game main slate. Overwhelmed leads to overthinking and overthinking drives a lack of confidence. Think about it, when you aren’t able to get a comfortable sense of the variables around you, you feel small. You feel indecisive and you look for ways to justify decisions. I can’t help but think of how important confidence is for Week 17. Fighting the urge to ignore the games and players you aren’t playing, and focusing on those you do have in your lineups will be the key to success this Sunday.

    Famed New Zealand painter Peter McIntyre’s quote above serves as a perfect theme to our lineups this week. If we build our lineups with the belief that we will be right instead of the fear of being wrong, we can guarantee we deploy some very confident lineups. Whether you’ve won or lost this season thus far, it’s important to maintain confidence heading into the final weeks of the NFL season for a few reasons. First, because OWS has worked hard to train you to think in a confident fashion and to build those first-place lineups, and second, because even if you’ve played all of the main slates and showdowns this season, you’re still seeing a small sample size of around 50 slates for extremely thin variance to be your friend. 

    In full disclosure, I fit more into the losing category than winning this season. I’ve seen profit on my entries around 12-15 times over the course of 49 slates, but without any top 1% places, I’m net-negative on the season. I don’t know about you, but I’m still as confident as any DFS player at 12:59pm US EST every Sunday believing that my lineups will be right. Some of this is due to past success, but most of it is due to sticking to my process and trying to build through my words here on OWS each season. I also know the nature of my play, in not risking much on any given slate with the minute chance of seeing extreme profits maybe once or twice a season. I’m not in control over the luck that plays into some DFS outcomes, but I know that by controlling my process, I’m keeping one constant: my approach. 

    Confidence is vital this week. So many of us will focus on where we could lose by not having exposure. No matter your entry amounts, though, you can’t cover every square. Part of being willing to lose means owning your psyche as you look to take down a tournament on the next slate. Build lineups like nobody will judge you! (spoiler alert: they won’t!). And as always, lean into your confidence in justifying why your lineups can be really right this week . . . 

    Game stacking when it’s least expected

    The great element of a large slate is the likelihood that ownership will be more spread out than usual. But as chalk will always form, it makes leverage on the ownership even more powerful this week. Translation: we can get blocks of players for less than one or two percent combinatorial ownership on this slate. That’s just simply fun, in my opinion. But the real fun in this is that we don’t have to get crazy to do this. For instance, as we look at some of the potential games that could be a shootout and the offenses that could put up north of 30 points, the few that fit this mold will be where most DFS players start this week (Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, 49ers). Further, on a massive slate with 26 teams to choose from, there may not be a better week to hone in on a few games to get right, that could rise above the rest. And what games are better to pick here than the fourth and eighth-highest Vegas totals on the slate: Bucs at Saints and Titans at Texans.

    My favorite way to get exposure to a cheap player block in a game that could explode is when you don’t have to make any outrageous bets in doing so. Said differently, when salaries are relatively low and we know where the volume should go, you can build comfortable game stacks primed to win tournaments if we get the environment we need. The Bucs and Saints are my favorite game in this category this week. On the Saints side, we have the offense flowing through Kamara, Olave, and Shaheed, with Taysom likely mixing in. For the Bucs, it’s all about White, Evans, and Godwin. Condensity, check! These two teams are also alive and well to win the NFC South, meaning motivation to continue to pile up points should be there. The only element holding this game back should be Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield, but at least Mayfield has been relatively solid lately (QB13 or better in each of the last three weeks with nine TDs and zero INTs). Carr’s price is so low you can barely find him on DK ($5,500) and just put up his best fantasy performance of the season in catch-up mode at the Rams. Stacking up Carr, Kamara, Olave, and Shaheed, alongside White and Godwin (even down Lattimore, the Saints are Mike Evans’ kryptonite) fills out six roster spots (wild to most!) with a remaining salary of $11,900 on DK for defense, tight end, and a flex. Unless you read this and deploy it as well, I am confident in saying I’ll be the only lineup in every tournament I enter to start this way.

    Titans and Texans

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    The Oracle

    The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 17 Topics

    1. High Certainty

    2. Middle Class QBs

    3. Value Plays

    4. Floating Plays

    5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. High Certainty

    The Question ::

    The NFL season goes through cycles. Early in the season, we don’t know as much as we think about teams and we are learning on a consistent basis. As the season goes on, teams show us who they are and who they are trying to be. For a large part of the season, we can have a pretty high degree of confidence in what teams will try to do on a weekly basis and, generally speaking, how they match up. Then we get to the end of the season and it seems like every team is moving in a different direction. Some teams are eliminated, many teams are dealing with coaching changes and/or large scale injuries, quarterbacks change, weather changes…..there’s just a lot going on. All of that change can create a good deal of chaos and uncertainty. While uncertainty provides opportunities for us to find an edge, there is also an incredible amount of value in finding spots that do provide us with certainty.

    For Week 17, there appears to be two spots where there should be a strong degree of certainty on a team having a very strong game. Those two spots are the Eagles and 49ers, two of the top offenses in the league facing the two worst defenses in the league. To truly separate ourselves in DFS tournaments, we will have to embrace some uncertainty in other spots (we will get to that later). However, to be in the hunt we are probably going to need to get these two spots right as well. 

    How are you seeing those spots and which players from those teams are standing out to you? If you are looking at stacking either or both of these teams, will you have any interest in their opponents?

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    This question does a great job laying out some of the core components we talk a lot about in Winner Circle: you often need to take some swings on “uncertainty” in order to complete a roster in such a way that you are both maximizing ceiling and maximizing your chances of landing on a first-place finish if the pieces on your roster hit, but if you load up with too much uncertainty, you give yourself a set of dots that are difficult for the math to connect. Ideally, your rosters (especially your tighter builds) will have a core of higher-certainty plays, and you can build forward from there. Especially if you are building multiple rosters and are mixing and matching these “higher-certainty plays” across all your builds, you’ll be well ahead of the field on ALL your rosters on the weeks when your high-certainty pieces hit.

    I see the 49ers offense and the Eagles offense as being the highest-certainty spots on the slate from a “team scoring” perspective, but I also see these teams as being in different categories from one another. There have been only three weeks all season in which a core piece from the 49ers has not gone for 26.9 or more DK points (and in two of those games, Deebo Samuel was sidelined), and this team is now playing the Commanders. It’s extremely likely that we see a score of 26.9 or higher from one of the core four on this team. The Eagles, on the other hand, have produced only five games of 26.9 or more DK points all year (the 49ers have 13 such games in all; if necessary, read those numbers again and notice the disparity). This is due in large part to the fact that, as we know, “upside in fantasy is heavily dependent on touchdowns,” and Jalen Hurts has vultured 15(!!!) rushing touchdowns on the season, effectively taking 90 DK points away from his teammates. I like the Eagles plenty this week, but I don’t see them in the same “source of certainty” bucket as the 49ers.

    On the other hand, the Rams have produced 11 games of 26.9 or more DK points among THREE players (two of whom missed chunks of the season), which means they have been even more reliably productive in a DFS sense than the 49ers on a per-player basis — which serves as a reminder that strong, concentrated offenses can provide even more value than “offenses that are even better, but that don’t have the same concentration of production and scoring.” Similarly — as explored in my Player Grid this week — C.J. Stroud has produced a WR score of 26.4 or better in eight of his last 11 healthy games (with the only exceptions being that weird, three-game stretch in the middle of the season when he was not playing up to his normal level), which gives us something in the range of 85% to 90% certainty that a Texans WR will produce a high-end game in a matchup against the Titans’ secondary…with only two guys for us to really choose between (Nico and Brown).

    I bring these other two spots into the discussion to highlight the nuanced view we want to always bring to the table when hunting for “certainty.” It’s not just about “which teams are going to perform well?” It’s also about “what’s under the hood with each of these teams?”

    The highest “sources of certainty” on this slate, as far as I’m seeing things, are the 49ers, the Rams, and the Texans wideouts. The Eagles are right behind that.

    Xandamere >>

    The 49ers and Eagles are two spots we definitely have to think about for our rosters this week because, as Mike notes, these are two of the top offenses in the league and both are facing bottom-tier defenses. Points will be scored. The question is if points will be scored in such a way that generates tourney-worthy fantasy scores. It’s important to recognize that there are paths to failure that have nothing to do with a team not scoring real points – because those points can be distributed in such a way that no player actually has a good game for their salary (and these two teams are full of expensive players). I’ll be on these teams, of course…but I don’t think it’s a spot where you MUST play a 49er and an Eagle on every single roster, because at their prices it’s entirely plausible that none of them put up must-have games. It’s just a very, very good spot.

    I don’t think we need to force bringbacks in either spot. We can certainly use them, but I don’t think it’s a must – both the Eagles and the 49ers are perfectly capable of generating big scores without their opponents pushing doing so. The way I tend to play these situations when using an optimizer is a rule that says something like “in a roster that has Jalen Hurts, boost all Cardinals skill position players by 10%” – this encourages some amount of correlation without forcing it on every roster.

    Hilow >>

    Yup, those are two of the three (four?) primary points of emphasis that I have identified on this slate. It is highly likely that someone from the 49ers and Eagles (and Rams) puts up an elite GPP score this week. From an ownership perspective, the field is expressing a high degree of certainty that those players WILL be Jalen Hurts and Christian McCaffrey, but any one of Deebo Samuel (my favorite leverage play from the 49ers), George Kittle, or Brandon Aiyuk could be that guy for San Francisco and any one of D’Andre Swift (my favorite leverage play from the Eagles), A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert could be that guy for Philadelphia this week.

    Similarly, the field is expressing a high degree of confidence that the player that WILL succeed for the Rams is Kyren Williams, but Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are each equally as likely to return an elite GPP score this week.

    Mike >>

    I’ll be relatively surprised if the 49ers don’t score five touchdowns in this spot. Considering the way they use their skill players, if that holds true, it would mean that it’s extremely likely that Christian McCaffrey scores at least two touchdowns and/or Brock Purdy throws at least three – making it optimal to have at least one of them in your lineup and putting just about any combination of 49ers players as viable DFS options. They are a virtual lock for 400+ yards of offense and that combined with the touchdowns makes them an absolute must-play on this week’s slate. 

    The Eagles are a bit of a different animal, as Jalen Hurts can suck up the touchdowns in a way that doesn’t necessarily benefit the rest of the crew and their drives tend to eat up a lot of clock, resulting in less opportunities for skill players to rack up points and reach bonuses. That being said, Devonta Smith and AJ Brown are likely to go very low-owned and it wouldn’t be shocking for one of them to go over 100 yards and score a touchdown. D’Andre Swift is also one of my favorite RBs on the slate, as I can see a game script where he finally gets in the end zone and they reward him for being the “good soldier” when they give Hurts all those TDs. The Eagles defense also makes a ton of sense playing at home against an offense that lacks talent at the wide receiver position, which is usually where teams are able to exploit them.


    2. Middle Class QBs

    The Question ::

    This week seems to be a “barbell week” at the quarterback position, with most people likely to spend way up or spend way down. There are a whopping eight QB’s on the slate with salaries of $7,000 or higher and all are in good to great spots::

    • Jalen Hurts, home against the Cardinals 32nd ranked defense.
    • Josh Allen, home against the Patriots who he has destroyed over the years.
    • Lamar Jackson, home against the Dolphins and chasing an MVP
    • Patrick Mahomes, home against the Bengals who give up the most yards per play in the league.
    • Tua Tagovailoa, in a high total game and plays with the best WR in the league.
    • Justin Fields, home against the Bears and always has a monster ceiling.
    • CJ Stroud, home against the injury riddled pass funnel defense of the Titans.
    • Brock Purdy, looking for a bounce back game against the Commanders and their 31st ranked defense.

    On the other end of things, there are four quarterbacks with salaries below $5,000 that all have at least decent spots and could make some sense and draw a bit of ownership, while opening up your salary for the rest of your roster::

    • Bryce Young, coming off a career-best game and facing the Jaguars pass funnel defense.
    • Jacoby Brissett, has looked great in limited work and is likely to have to pass 40+ times against the 49ers.
    • Jarrett Stidham, at home in a great matchup against the Chargers with his head coach likely wanting to prove he was right to bench Russell Wilson.
    • Tyrod Taylor, at home facing a middling Rams defense with cheap pass catchers and some rushing ability.

    This is a 13-game slate, meaning there are 26 total starting quarterbacks. 12 of those 26 fit into one side or the other of the “barbell”, but that leaves 14 as our “middle class” of the position. Is there anyone in that middle class that sticks out to you as a potential option or will you be sticking to the pricing extremes at the quarterback position?

    The Answers ::

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    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    Afternoon-Only

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    FINDING AN EDGE

    The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

    Week 17 Slate
    • This week’s slate is only three games and it has some unique features to it. 
    • Four of the six teams that are playing will have a second or third string quarterback under center.
    • Tight end is EXTREMELY THIN, with only two tight ends who we can confidently expect to have solid roles.
    • A couple of these games and our approaches to these teams can be correlated based on what we think from last week’s results. What do I mean? The Steelers went nuts against the Bengals last week with Mason Rudolph torching them and Pittsburgh scoring 34 points. Did the Pittsburgh offense find something? If so, they are likely to be severely underowned against an up-and-down Seattle defense. That would also mean that maybe the Bengals defense isn’t as bad as it looked….and could be a sneaky play this week against the struggling Chiefs. Steelers stacks with the Bengals defense make sense. On the flip side, if last week was the result of how bad the Bengals D is then Chiefs stacks with Seattle defense makes sense.
    • From an injury perspective, there are two situations we need to pay close attention to. 
    • First of all, Ja’Marr Chase is questionable and uncertain to play. His availability will have a big impact on that game as he would make the Bengals more likely to keep things competitive. Also, the Chiefs star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has an uncertain status. If Chase plays and Sneed sits, Chase could be in a great spot for a big game. If Chase plays and Sneed plays, Tee Higgins could benefit assuming Sneed focuses on Chase. If Chase sits, the outlook for Higgins would depend heavily on the status of Sneed. A lot of variables at play here and being aware of exactly where the situation lands will be a key component of the slate.
    • Second of all, the Chiefs RB situation must be monitored. Isiah Pacheco is reportedly going to play just six days after sustaining a concussion. The matchup is pristine, but will the Chiefs limit his touches to protect him from another concussion? Clyde Edwards-Helaire also missed practice Thursday and Friday with an illness. If CEH is out and Pacheco plays, they may have no choice but to give him a full workload. There’s also an outside chance the reports end up incorrect and Pacheco is a late inactive (similar to what happened last week with Michael Pittman).
    Ownership Strategy
    • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
    • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
    • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
    • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.
    QB Strategy

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    Late Swap

    StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

    Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

    Outlook – Late Games:

    The Week 17 main slate is one of the largest of the season, featuring 13 games. With an increase in options in general and specifically many good spots, I would expect the score required to win a tournament this week to be closer to 250 points. What does that mean from a high-level perspective? As always, we want to focus on ceiling outcomes, however, I think it puts an even higher importance on ensuring every player on your roster has the realistic potential to go for at least 20 DK points.

    Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

    With 10 of the 13 games falling into the early window, there are more outcomes to monitor than on a standard week. This week, they are:

    • SF 49ers, specifically Christian McCaffrey – The Niners have the highest implied team total on the slate and should have no problem scoring against this porous Commanders defense. CMC is the most expensive player on the slate but is also projected for the highest overall ownership at over 30%. He has shown 50-point upside already this season and gets his best on-paper matchup of the year.     
    • Zamir White – With Josh Jacobs inactive the past two weeks, White saw 21+ opportunities each week and exceeded 17 DK points in both weeks. This week he gets a porous Colts run defense with Jacobs expected to be out once again. On a slate starved for value, White is projected for 30% ownership.
    • LA Rams, specifically Kyren Williams – The matchup against the Giants should lead to robust opportunities for all of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp and I would expect (at least one) to put up a tournament-worthy score this week.
    • Gerald Everett – With Keenan Allen ruled out, Everett is projecting to be one of the highest owned overall on the entire slate at $3,500. He is likely to see 6-9 targets but has yet to surpass 15 DK points all season.
    • Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55 DK point performance in week 5 or Amari Coopers’ 52 points last week.
    Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

    $7,100 and up:

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    Battle Royale

    Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

    Welcome to Week 17!

    If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

    For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

    Looking at Week 17

    After several weeks of condensed slates and missing elite offenses, Week 17 is completely full with 12 games and multiple elite QBs. Basically any QB stack is available here save Hurts-AJB, so getting that decision right will be foundational to success this week. The WR drop off feels more significant than the RB one, so I’m likely to prioritize WRs more frequently in the early rounds, as well as the big 3 at TE. Keep an eye on potential bad weather spots with only two dome games this week, but also look to capitalize on slipping ADPs where drafters get overly scared by early weather concerns that may not even materialize.

    QB:

    Brock Purdy @ WAS (QB4, 25.1 ADP):

    • Fresh off an embarrassing outing against one of the league’s elite defenses, Purdy gets a perfect chance to rebound in dominant fashion against one of the league’s worst. SF will be able to crush this defense on the ground or through the air, but Shanahan will likely look to regenerate some of Purdy’s confidence here in a cake matchup. All 4 of the main SF weapons are stackable with Purdy as WAS has been susceptible to all 3 positions, and in 12-person drafts especially, I’d be happy with a double stack. Keep an eye on impending weather, but SF is the biggest favorite of the week to score 4+ touchdowns.

    CJ Stroud vs TEN (QB8, 34.9 ADP):

    • Stroud’s cloudy availability over the last couple of weeks has kept his ADP down, and losing the dynamic Tank Dell has hurt this offense overall, but a solid TEN defense that’s susceptible through the air is a great spot for Stroud to remind everyone who the rookie of the year has been. This is one of only two games played in a dome this week, and HOU is fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both QBs to throw for more than 33 attempts vs TEN this year have gone over 300 pass yards, and Stroud has 7 games of over 33 attempts this year. HOU could play it safe with him coming off injury, and they could once again find success on the ground in this matchup, but Stroud’s ceiling is too high to be going undrafted and he can be easily stacked with Nico Collins (WR10, 24.4 ADP) or Dalton Schultz (TE7, 34.9 ADP).
    RB:

    Bijan Robinson @ CHI (RB11, 34.9 ADP):

    • CHI has been very tough on the ground, however the defense filters targets to RBs through the air, something Bijan has displayed immense skill at taking advantage of in his first season. Bijan has 10 games of 5+ targets, including a game of 10 targets last week in Heinicke’s start vs IND. Unideal matchup, but he’s completely free at the end of drafts and has the same ceiling as many of the RBs taken ahead of him.

    Raheem Mostert @ BAL (RB12, 35.2 ADP):

    • Mostert and Achane have both been battling injuries of late, but Mostert still has lead control of this backfield and leads the league in TDs. BAL has been hit on the ground by several strong offenses this year, including just last week by CMC, showing an explosive unit like MIA could find success here as well. Mostert’s goal-line role this year makes him too valuable to be going undrafted in what has the potential to be a back-and-forth game.

    Austin Ekeler @ DEN (RB14, 35.5 ADP):

    • DEN has been going through it in the media with all the Payton-Russ controversy, and the defense that seemed to be much improved has been showing cracks of late. The LAC offense should still expect to struggle with Easton Stick at QB, but the main weakness of the DEN defense still lies against RBs, something Ekeler himself exploited for 100 yards and a TD a few weeks ago. Ekeler saw 19 opportunities last week in the first game post-Staley firing and is another guy who has plenty of ceiling in the final round of drafts. Keenan Allen missing is not good for the offense overall, but it does boost Ekeler’s target expectation.
    WR:

    Stefon Diggs vs NE (WR9, 16.7 ADP):

    • Diggs has been a player Belichick has struggled to corral over the years, with Diggs posting four fantasy scores over 18 (18, 18.7, 19.9, 37) and another two solid scores (12.2, 14.8). Diggs has been on a massive cold streak of late, which from everything we’ve ever seen about Stefon Diggs means he’s been squeaking that wheel inside the locker room, and BUF is in a situation of needing to win out to truly control their playoff destiny. Seven WRs have topped 80+ yards vs NE, and Diggs received 12 targets in the one earlier this season. This is not a play I am going to go seeking out a lot, but Diggs-Allen stacks have not been widely available over the years and I want to take advantage now that it is. I would want Josh Allen on my Diggs teams, as a big Diggs game here likely means a Josh Allen big game. This NE defense is not bad, but Belichick can only compensate for the lack of talent and injured depth so much against these elite offenses.

    Davante Adams @ IND (WR12, 29.1 ADP):

    • Adams has not posted big numbers since O’Connell took over, but he has 4 games of 10-13 targets, and this matchup’s coverage scheme sets up well for what he succeeds at. LV is fighting for their playoff lives, and Jacobs is set up to once again miss the game, keeping the usage condensed on this offense. Hopkins, Evans, Puka, Collins, and Ridley have all dominated as WR1s in this matchup, and Adams has too much talent to be going at the end of drafts. One of only two dome games this week in a competitive playoff-hopeful matchup, Adams has the ceiling to pop.
    TE:

    Travis Kelce vs CIN (10.0), George Kittle @ WAS (16.1), Trey McBride @ PHI (19.9):

    • The big 3 TEs of the week all go within the middle of drafts, with Kelce disappointing frequently of late, but still going as the highest of them all. Kittle’s target expectation is the lowest with SF’s offense healthy, but whose ceiling is as high as any, especially in this smash matchup. McBride is averaging 9.4 targets/game over his last 7 games, producing 4 scores of 15+ points in that span, but PHI has improved against TEs since adding Byard. There are some other TEs to consider on the slate that can match the lower end of these guys’ ceilings, but none of them can touch what these 3 can do at their best here, and I’ll likely be frequently trying to end up with one of these guys because of it.

    Notable Stats

    These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

    1st place performance:

    • 37 of the 52 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 22 of the 52 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 48 of the 52 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

    Stacking and Correlation:

    • 30 of 52 had a QB paired with just one teammate
      • WR (22), TE (5), RB (3)
    • 8 of 52 had a QB stacked with two teammates
      • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (2)
    • 5 of those 38 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
    • 51 of 52 had at least one game correlation
    • 15 of 52 had two different game correlations

    FLEX usage:

    • 169 of 260 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
    • 90 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

    Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!