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Week 17 Angles
OWS Fam! —
Welcome to Week 17.
It’s almost a bit of culture shock moving to a 13-game Main Slate this weekend (good prep for the 15-game Main Slate in Week 18, I guess!), and as you might expect from a 13-game slate, there is a lot to pay attention to in this one.
Missing from the Main Slate are the Jets, the Browns, the Lions, the Cowboys, the Packers, and the Vikings, which means we don’t get to target the Amari Cooper encore (nor do we get to fade a guy whose “upside at low ownership” we’ve been hammering all season, one week after his biggest game of the year when the field would have finally woken up and rostered him at too high of a level), we don’t get to target the Breece Hall encore (wow!), we don’t get to target the elite weapons on the Lions, Cowboys, and Vikings, and we don’t get to take advantage of the sneaky edges the Packers are able to provide. And actually, this is a bit interesting, as Amari, Breece, ARSB, Justin Jefferson, and Packers pass catchers were among the highest-owned players in the OWS community last week — and yet, we still have 26 teams to choose amongst on this week’s Main Slate.
The highest team total on the slate belongs to the 49ers at 31.25 as they travel to take on the hapless defense of the Commanders. It will be interesting to see if there is any overreaction to the score/statistics from the 49ers’ game against the Ravens (as we’ll explore this week: they didn’t play as poorly as the score/statistics would indicate) — though I have to imagine the DFS field is intelligent enough, at this point, to still lean into this spot.
The second-highest team total on the slate belongs to the Eagles at 29.25 in their home game against the Cardinals. While the 49ers are taking on a Washington defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass, the Eagles are taking on a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against BOTH the run and the pass. These “top two team totals” appear to be in a class of their own this week, in terms of “percentage chances of these teams hitting for a big offensive day.”
The third-highest team total on the slate belongs to the Bills, who have had their challenges against Belichick’s squad over the years, but who nevertheless tend to find a way to put up points in this matchup (starting from their most recent, the Bills have point totals of 25 // 35 // 24 // 47 // 33 in their last five games against the Pats). The Bills don’t fall into the same “good offense in a soft matchup” category as the 49ers and Eagles, but they have pathways to getting the job done.
I took the time to highlight these top three offenses because things get a bit weird after this, with the Kansas City Chiefs (the same Kansas City Chiefs who have topped 21 points only two times in their last eight games!!!) implied to score 25.75 at home against the Bengals…and with every other team on this slate implied to score 25 or fewer.
While the 49ers and Eagles clearly stand out at the top of this slate, with the Bills a team that won’t surprise us if they hang a big number as well, this slate is expansive enough — and intriguing enough — to provide us with a number of “wide range of outcomes” game environments that could tilt to the upside.
The OWS Fam dominated the tops of tournaments the last time the Dolphins and Ravens played, as we always talk about how shootouts almost always develop through explosive players hitting for big plays…and this played out to the tune of a 42-38 Dolphins win in Week 2 of last year. There are clear pathways along which this game could be lower-scoring, and there are also clear pathways to the Ravens controlling this one throughout, but a shootout cannot be written off…and if it happens, it has clear “top of the slate” potential.
With the best red-zone defense in the NFL, the Titans don’t usually allow a lot of points (in spite of their struggles to defend the pass), and they don’t typically score a lot of points either; but if C.J. Stroud is under center for the Texans in a must-win game, they could easily find a way to convert their yards into touchdowns, and the Titans have the weapons to hang with the Texans if this game trends to the upside.
The Saints have been inconsistent, but when they are at their best, they are certainly capable of putting together a high-scoring effort against a defense like the Bucs, and the Bucs have shown explosive upside of their own, creating an interesting landscape in this critical NFC South game.
And while the rest of the games on the Main Slate might fall into the “stretch of the imagination” bucket with regards to shootouts, there is no shortage of remaining teams capable of posting noteworthy efforts on their own, including the aggressive/creative Colts against the energetic Raiders, the banged-up/downtrodden Jags against the Panthers, the exciting/explosive Rams against the blitz-happy Giants, and probably a few others that I might not even get to in roster construction myself this week.
With so much to sort through, so much to think about, and so much to potentially like, we have a bit of a “throwback” slate, to where it feels more like past seasons than like “what we’ve had so far in 2023” (or at least: it feels like a throwback slate for how deep into the season we are, when injuries have always piled up, and pricing is always tight).
There is definite edge available to us this week.
Let’s go out there and find it!
Shoutout to the OWS Fam!
On Wednesday morning, I had a chance to finally catch up on the Binks channel, and I ended up having to pick and choose among over 40 screenshots from the OWS Fam (which, of course, doesn’t even include users who don’t post their wins in the Binks channel!), including the OWS Fam’s fourth win of the season in The Slant(!!!) and a whole slew of other first-place finishes and big payouts.
What a year it’s been.
Let’s finish strong.
Shoutout to Props Insider!
Remember in the Angles Pod when I highlighted Props Profit at $10,000 and said that one week you were going to look up and it would be $12,000? Well, we passed that mark a long time ago, and the steady climb has continued.
Props Profit is now at $18,223 since March(!), with over $4,400 earned in NBA (still six months of NBA left!), over $1,600 earned in NFL (12.8% ROI!), and over $2,400 earned in college basketball (an absolutely unreal 17.4% ROI!).
Reminder: Week passes are only $39(!).
I’ll see you on the site throughout the weekend.
And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!