Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Welcome to Week 16! We’re midway through December, and now that we’re into the wonky part of the NFL schedule, I’m happy to report we will have football on for eight of the next 13 days of this month. An overdose of the sport before the start of 2026 is likely welcomed by anyone reading this email, but importantly, it also provides plenty of opportunities to capitalize on winnable slates.

This deep into the NFL season, it’s important to remind ourselves of perspective. Gone are the days of wondering what type of team your favorite NFL squad will be, as are many of those pesky first-half of the season spots of unpredictability. We’re now in a very predictable phase of the season. “Very” should be in air quotes, if not typed at all, because that’s relative to other parts of the season. But the point remains… these last three weeks of the season become more predictable than any other part because of what these teams have already shown us this season.

Unless we get new coaches or quarterbacks this week (hello Gardner Minshew and Quinn Ewers), there’s little that should rattle how you assess the upcoming slate. We are all aware at this point who is playing for something and who is playing for nothing, we’re aware of which coaches will go for it on fourth down, and which quarterbacks will welcome turnover-worthy plays. We know play styles, rhythms, and pace, and we know (and start to care) about contract incentives and pending free agents trying to get good tape.

We know a lot more than we used to. This was a confidence-building exercise. Congratulations, because you passed! We should be attacking this Week 16 main slate just like we did in Week 15; by putting season-long and Best Ball teams in the rearview and by predicting the present of what we know. On an 11-game slate ahead on Sunday, we have a smaller, more manageable set of games, where there isn’t as clear of a top game environment and there are fewer games that carry some weight compared to last Sunday.

Week 16 Slate :: Predict the Present

Whether you’ve been successful or treading water lately, we want to avoid the feeling of being overwhelmed in creating lineups. Sometimes this happens when we consume too many voices; sometimes it can happen with too much data. The fact remains that the secret sauce for a large-ish slate such as Week 16 is to simply build for what we know. I have used the term “predict the present” here in the past, which essentially means build for the knowns and control for the unknowns (be ready for variance!).

With that in mind, let’s tackle a bit of Week 16 with this theme in mind. The de-facto top game environment is the Steelers // Lions at 52.5 implied points, but it’s buoyed by the Lions’ side of it (29.5). What we know is Detroit is scoring points with Dan Campbell calling the plays (44, 9, 34, 24, 44, 34). We also know Detroit is giving up a lot of points recently (27, 31, 30, 41 in the last four). Without Sam LaPorta, Detroit’s offensive touches are more condensed than typical, which is great for fantasy production. We also know on the other side, with Pittsburgh, they have a rotation at running back and tight end, and only one wide receiver we can trust. A shootout can happen, but the full game stack projection may be tough to nail.

Chargers // Cowboys :: Before Herbert’s hand issue, the loss of Joe Alt, and the slightly improved Cowboys defense (say a Week 3 matchup), we might have had more fun with this one. This game carries a decent total (49.5), but we know the Chargers want to run the ball to win while Herbert is limited, so their success on the ground could saturate the game like it did in Kansas City. If predicting a shootout, it is much easier to say where the targets will funnel on the Dallas side (i.e., Dak rosters > Herbert rosters, at first glance). For what it’s worth, as prolific as the quarterbacks can be, this game also features two of the best kickers in the NFL.

Falcons // Cardinals carries a 48-point total, and speaking of condensed touches, this game has it. We’ll have to watch for Drake London and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s returns (which seem possible), but these are two teams ready and willing to air it out at a moment’s notice. Cousins’ high-volume passing attack last week was likely fueled by Baker and the Bucs’ presence on the other side. This week, Brissett and his receivers shouldn’t force the same strategy unless they break out to an early lead (Arizona). Studying this game seems key to the slate. Do you go all in on underpriced Cardinals? Kyle Pitts after his career game? More on that on the site this weekend!

Other notables include Jags // Broncos and Bucs // Panthers, which carry some playoff implications. The NFC South matchup is the first of two meetings over the next three weeks, and both teams should be aggressive. The AFC matchup is two playoff teams jockeying for seeding and reputation. Jacksonville was a fantasy gold mine last week, as they hit nearly all their scoring via the passing attack against the Jets, but Denver’s defense poses a different threat. Denver should want that No. 1 seed bye week, and I have a sneaky suspicion that RJ Harvey’s health may dictate how they approach this game offensively.

On the Bucs side, a healthy Mike Evans covered up a lot of their offensive inefficiencies, and 10 days of “rest” since their Thursday night football debacle should be enough to motivate them against Carolina. If Carolina plays their best, however, we could have a changing of the guard in the NFC South. Of all the games this week, this one stands out the most as the one with two teams who should both “really want this W.” Whether that matters or not is up for your interpretation.

Buffalo (at Cleveland), Cincinnati (at Miami), and Houston (hosting Raiders) are the only other teams with healthy totals this week. “At Cleveland” in mid-December comes with its own context, but Josh Allen is rolling now, and the Bills seem to want to run their way to another victory with Allen and Cook. What Joe Burrow shows up on Sunday is anyone’s guess, but with Tua now benched and these teams eliminated from postseason contention, there have been crazier shootouts. Houston’s opponent (LV) is not even expected to score two touchdowns on Sunday. That’s low, Bob. Getting in and out of this game with a win and no injuries feels like the likeliest expectation for the Texans.

As we search this slate for the knowns, don’t stray too far into an imaginary land. We should have a strong feel for what to expect in these matchups. There is always the rare tributary that could form, and as always, the unpredictable nature of where the touchdowns come from drives tournament leaderboards.

But let’s go have some fun, keep things simple, predict the present, and vault up the leaderboards in Week 16.

See you on the site throughout the weekend!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, DEC. 16 ::

INITIAL BIG-PICTURE VIEW OF SLATE ::

Here are some notes i made for myself as i dove into the slate for the first time last night:

fun week

floor for rosters high

pricing tight, early

looks like waller likely to be a popular salary saver (facing bengals te funnel, coming off a huge game in primetime after pricing had been set).

there are plenty of games that can play to the high upside

what is going on w cardinals // falcons pricing?

dive into recent arizona games

arizona combined scores

arizona pricing — how absurd, across their four games.

what london was doing before he left. compare to pricing of guys much higher.

what bijan has been doing

pitts

variations of this game

CARDINALS BIG THREE THOUGHTS ::

Maybe marvin harrison will return, and we’ll have to adjust. but for now, let’s look at this:

mcbride + wilson + brissett = $19.8k

in games mhj has missed, they have scored:

78.4
71.0
63.4
93.9

that is outrageous.

on top of this, the arizona defense has been awful of late, allowing 40+ in four of their last six, and 27+ in five of six.

recent totals in arizona games:

60
62
37
51
63
66

recent totals in atlanta games:

57
46
51
34
57
56

you guys. what!?

the game total in this one is only 47.5 — and at -105, we could see this fall to 46.5 before the end of the week. this wouldn’t “keep the field off” this one; but it would be a less attractive total than it should be. 75% of the last 12 games these teams have played have gone to the over (4/6 atlanta; 5/6 arizona).

atlanta opponents are averaging 27.6 points per game across their last eight.

arizona opponents are averaging 36.2 points per game across their last six, and 32.4 across their last nine.

there are quite a few games on this slate that can play to the upside, and i’ll get to thoughts on all of them, of course. but when opening the slate last night, this was the spot that pulled me in first.

this game has real shootout potential, and one side of this game is hilariously underpriced. (brissett’s price dropped this week. what!?)

and then on the other side — yes, with a different qb; but still — drake london is $7k, and is averaging more dk points per game than every other wideout on this slate. on top of that, london started the season slow (10.3 points per game through his first three), and he proceeded to rip off a 27.2 point-per-game average across his next six.

this game.

wow.

JAGUARS-BRONCOS UPSIDE ::

I didn’t get to spend as much time diving into this one last night, but jacksonville // denver is another one with sneaky shootout potential.

in seven games since the bye, the jags have averaged 32.9 points per game. they scored 29 against houston (the most anyone has scored in this matchup; one of only two times houston has allowed more than 20). they scored 35 vs the chargers (the second most anyone has scored in this matchup; one of only four times a team has topped 21 vs lac). they scored 36 vs indy (the most anyone has scored in this matchup; the only time a team has topped 28 vs indy). the jags are on fire.

the broncos are a good defense, but they aren’t as scary as their reputation.

they have allowed 12.6 points per game across eight contests vs the raiders (twice), chiefs, mills’ texans (stroud injured early), jets, eagles, browning’s bengals, and titans.

in their other six games, they have played packers, mariota’s commanders, cowboys, dart’s giants, chargers, and colts, and have allowed 26.7 points per game, with game totals in those games of 60 // 53 // 66 // 65 // 43 // 57.

the 45.5 total in this one is not going to stand out to projection systems or to our competition. and this game carries genuine shootout potential.

BENGALS-DOLPHINS PROJECTED TOTAL THOUGHTS ::

A third sort of funny total to me is bengals // dolphins — for different reasons than above.

the total in this game is 50.5.

recent miami games:

43
44
38
29
43
34
44
37

that’s eight consecutive games that haven’t even sniffed this total.

the bengals’ defense has also been playing better lately, and while cincy/buffalo became an aggressive “attack mode” shootout very early (73 total points), burrow’s other two games since returning have gone for 46 and 24.

projections are going to love this game — and maybe it plays to the upside. it certainly can. but we should be aware of the fact that it’s an uphill climb to get there.

CHARGERS-COWBOYS INITIAL THOUGHTS ::

More fun with totals:

the chargers have played seven consecutive games that have finished under 47 points.

cowboys games have gone over this number in 9 of 11.

the total here is 49.5, which projection systems will love.

i’ve already been messing around with early rosters that bet on this one playing to the upside, as it absolutely can; but we also want to be aware of the more methodical nature of most chargers games. they don’t typically score quickly. it’s work for them on offense. and they don’t typically let teams score quickly against them.

VIKINGS-GIANTS INITIAL THOUGHTS ::

Another early build i messed with was mccarthy and his cheap wideouts vs the giants.

realistically, i think this will look better at first glance than it will at a deeper, slate-level look. it’s highly unlikely we get more than 27/28 pass attempts from mccarthy, even if this game becomes high-scoring, which caps the high-end runout we can get here. if some of these other games on the slate play all the way to the upside, it will be difficult for variations of this stack to keep up. but there is a world in which the rest of the slate underwhelms enough for this stack to prove difference-making; and there is another (more shadowy) world in which this stack actually performs well enough from a raw-points perspective to actually just be “what you needed to have.”

basically: i don’t like this as much as i did at first glance; but i do like it, and i can certainly see the case for it in this matchup.

as i said at the top: it’s definitely a fun slate.

LONDON // MICHAEL WILSON THOUGHTS ::

Going back to london and michael wilson real quickly…

wilson is averaging 29.5 per game without mhj.

london is averaging 27.2 per game across his last six.

the highest-priced players on this slate:

21.6 — achane ($8.8k)
22.5 — bijan ($8.7k)
20.3 — ja’marr ($8.6k)
23.5 — gibbs ($8.5k)
20.5 — arsb ($8.4k)

like puka and jamo last week, these two playing opposite one another // hopefully playing off each other are the two most underpriced pieces on the slate. (fingers crossed for mhj to give his heel some extra time.)

TREY MCBRIDE THOUGHTS ::

We also have mcbride at $7.6k (~$1k less than the guys above), averaging 24.3 dk points per game since brissett took over. that’s 24.3 points per game (just shy of cmc) across a nine-game sample. there isn’t a ton of noise in there. that’s a pretty clean stat. as we have continued to hammer: mcbride is still underpriced.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 17 ::

BIJAN // LONDON PAIRING UPSIDE + GENERAL ATL-ARI THOUGHTS ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

What is that slate telling us? That is a question I talked a lot about this season, but we never really framed it that way here. I tackled this question in the Oracle, where I wrote:

“This slate feels like DraftKings is daring us to pay up at running back and hit the mid-range wide receivers hard. All of the backs feel priced up, even the “value” options. Within the context of this slate, with so many top tier options at the position, raw points are likely to matter a bit more than on a “standard slate” at running back, making players like Audric Estime, Aaron Jones, Michael Carter, and Kenneth Gainwell borderline unusable. That is part of the theoretical reasoning that has me giving a nice, hard look at Omarion Hampton, who would carry 30+ point upside against the Cowboys if he sees his snap rate increase (it hasn’t yet since returning from injury).”

Wide receivers like Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, and Jameson Williams all feel materially underpriced relative to their respective ceilings on this slate. This pricing dynamic should lead to a clear “chalk build,” giving us a clear blueprint for generating leverage (again, is the answer Omarion Hampton?).”

Beyond that, we have to ask ourselves where the field is getting its value, which appears to primarily be coming through tight end and quarterback. There is no reason Aaron Rodgers should be garnering so much ownership here. The dude hasn’t thrown for more than 284 yards this season and has just two games with more than two total touchdowns. Harold Fannin is the chalk at tight end and is in one of the worst individual matchups on the slate. This slate then becomes one of the most theoretical slates of the season, and one I’m stoked to tackle!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JAHMYR GIBBS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jahmyr Gibbs in the last four Detroit victories: 37.0 DK points, 58.4 DK points, 41.2 DK points, and 39.8 DK points. The Lions are 7.0-point favorites at home this week. Legit, enough said.

AMON-RA ST. BROWN

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sun God requires elite volume and touchdown variance working in his favor to return a score you could not win without, held back by an 8.7 aDOT and only seven end zone targets. Can that happen here? Sure. Is it likeliest to happen? Hell no. Which is to say, St. Brown carries elite floor and projection but is far less likely than his ownership expectation indicates to put up a score you could not win without this week.

DK METCALF

EXPANSIVE CHALK. If you’re playing Metcalf, do yourself a favor and don’t look at his splits against man coverage this season, which is important due to the defensive tendencies from the Lions. Okay, I’ll spoil it. Metcalf has a modest 0.19 TPRR, 1.53 YPRR, and 0.39 FP/RR against man with Aaron Rodgers this season, while generating one of the worst separation scores in the league in that split. I get it, the Lions are banged up in the secondary, but Metcalf is far from a natural fit with Rodgers (I talked about that this offseason for Best Ball purposes). Metcalf has only two games all season over 100 yards. Can that happen here? Sure. Is it going to occur at a rate similar to his ownership? Hell no. Which is to say, his ceiling looks great on paper, but the matchup and, thusly, his floor leave a lot to be desired here.

BIJAN ROBINSON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Bijan has put up 30 DK points or more five times this season, three of which have come in his last five games. The commonality in those three games was that he saw 28 or more opportunities each time. Digging deeper, the Falcons have played in five one-score games since Week 8, and Robinson saw an 85% snap rate or higher in all five of those games. He played 67% of the offensive snaps or fewer in the three games that were blowouts in either direction in that same span. The Falcons are currently 3.0-point road favorites over the Cardinals, making it likelier we see Robinson in a more robust role this week, adding to both his floor and ceiling. The matchup is pristine. I see no problem here.

JAMESON WILLIAMS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jamo has scored in five of seven games since the team’s Week 8 bye, going over 100 yards in three of those games. One of those came in the game St. Brown departed after just four offensive snaps. Remove that game, and we could say that Williams has gone over 100 yards in two of six games since their bye. Working in his favor this week are the absences of Nick Herbig and T.J. Watt, who rank first and second on the Steelers in both pressure rate and sacks this season. We know that to be massive for Goff due to his splits when pressured versus when kept clean. It works out to a net positive for Williams, although the Steelers have been nails against perimeter receivers over the past six weeks.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K

Gardner Minshew
Kenneth Gainwell
Bijan Robinson
Xavier Worthy
Hollywood Brown
Jameson Williams
Travis Kelce
Darren Waller
Bengals

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

As is often the case this deep into the season, I don’t have any players who stand out to me as true Blue Chip plays.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“All The Points(?)”

Bo Nix + R.J. Harvey

Story:

“This game opens up”

Why It Works:

This block has not totally hit quite yet, but it has been close all three weeks that Harvey has had the lead role in this offense, posting scores of ::

43.6 (177.2-point pace)
38.0 (154.5)
41.6 (169.1)

Low-cost running back is full of holes this week, and most rosters that fish for plays below $7.7k will end up with lower point-per-dollar returns than they would optimally like (which is context that makes those scores look better).

But most importantly…

How It Works:

I think this game is a shootout.

I talked about this in my Journal at the front end of the week; but against the Raiders (twice), the Chiefs, Davis Mills’ Texans (with Stroud injured early), the Jets, the Eagles, Jake Browning’s Bengals, and the Titans, the Broncos have allowed only 12.6 points per game.

But against the Packers, Mariota’s Commanders, the Cowboys, Dart’s Giants, the Chargers, and the Colts, the Broncos have allowed 26.7 points per game, with game totals of 60 // 53 // 66 // 65 // 43 // 57.

Since the Jags’ bye, Liam Coen has been pushing all the right buttons, with this team averaging 32.9 points per game(!) across this seven-game stretch — including scoring 29 vs Houston (the most any team has scored vs Houston this year; only one other team has topped 20 against them), 35 vs the Chargers (the second most anyone has scored vs LAC this year; only three other teams have topped 21 against them), and 36 vs Indy (the most anyone has scored vs Indy this year; they are the only team that has topped 28 vs Indy).

I don’t necessarily want to try to build for DFS through the Jags; but I can bet on the Jags having a good game here by understanding that Sean Payton will get aggressive and unleash his Favre-like/Favre-lite weapon in Bo Nix if the game starts trending that direction.

From a floor/certainty standpoint, Nix doesn’t stand out on this slate. But from a standpoint of A) how I expect this game to play out, and B) the type of ceiling Nix can access if everything comes together, he’s probably my favorite quarterback play on the slate.

Nix + Sutton is the cleanest and sharpest way to build this stack (it’s a better stack than Nix + Harvey). But with the situation we’re dealing with this week at lower-cost RB, I wanted to at least highlight the Nix + Harvey angle as well.

Of course, you don’t have to play Nix + Harvey. But if you’re building a handful of teams, I do think that strongly considering Nix in your quarterback pool is a sharp way to go.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Alphas”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Pay Up-Up(-Up?)

Same as last week’s featured Bink Machine rule (where we were paying down at multiple running back spots), this is not a rule I would actually be running on 100% of rosters in MME (or even in SE/3-Max play). But this is a rule I would want to run a few roster sets around, building a few hundred rosters A) with this rule, and B) with my pool, in order to see what might be possible on a double (or triple) “RB pay-up” build.

Running back is full of question marks and obvious over-pays once we get below James Cook at $7.7k (with the top three guys the obvious crown jewels among RBs on this slate), so while we might ultimately find ourselves settling on rosters that do pay down at one running back spot, I at least want to consider what a double (or triple) pay-up roster might look like. And the most efficient // most powerful way to do this is to simply run this rule through a few hundred rosters (ideally with the player pool chopped down to the guys you want to focus on) in order to see what you might be able to do here.

The rule :: On 100% of rosters, play two to three guys from this pool.

$5.57/Week!

At $39 for rest-of-season (playoffs included!), you can grab the Bink Machine for only $5.57/week.

If you try it and find it isn’t a valuable tool for you, just let us know, and we’ll refund your money.

The Bink Machine is not just for MME players(!). It’s an incredibly powerful process-enhancer for SE/3-Max // hand-building as well.

AGAIN: No risk. If you try it, and it isn’t a fit for you, just let us know, and we’ll send you back your money.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Jacoby Brissett || Bo Nix || Gardner Minshew || >>—<< || I also like Goff, who barely falls off my tightest list || >>—<< || there are plenty of other QBs you can also make a strong case for this week

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Bijan Robinson – The best play on the slate. Atlanta’s offense should have a ton of success in this one and Bijan is their engine in an elite matchup.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – AVERAGING 32 DK points per game in Lions wins, compared to only 12 in losses. Detroit is a 7-point favorite this week and has a 29.5 implied team total.
• De’Von Achane – Achane has a more questionable situation than Gibbs and Bijan, but the matchup is terrific and he will undoubtedly be a huge part of the offense.
• Omarion Hampton – Hampton has played two games since returning from injury and has 15 touches on 23 snaps in one game and 16 touches on 24 snaps in the other. He is a centerpiece of this offense and his role should continue to grow. Dallas should pump more play volume into the game than the Chiefs and Eagles the last two weeks, while the Chargers are likely to lean on Hampton as they chase the AFC West title.
• Javonte Williams – In the same game as Hampton, Javonte has a terrific matchup against a bad Chargers run defense (29th in run defense DVOA, 28th in PFF run defense grade). There is slight concern about workload as Malik Davis has been used more recently, but Williams could easily go over 100 yards and always has multi-touchdown potential in this offense.
• Michael Carter – Should have a huge role in a potential shootout. Very capable pass catcher and provides some solid salary cap relief.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

BLINK AND YOU’LL MISS IT

This slate is full of hesitation. Quarterback uncertainty. Fragile game totals. Plenty of “what if it fails?” energy floating around. That’s fine. Late-season slates like this don’t reward safety — they reward conviction. I’m leaning into volatility, betting on early sparks, and letting ownership tell me where the leverage lives.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

Jordan Addison / Darius Slayton


What the large-field maniac in me sees in my dreams. Two low-owned wideouts built for chaos. If this game slips into Hilow’s Oh Shit Mode, it’s almost certainly driven by explosive plays — and both of these guys can tilt the slate on a single snap.

Addison — $5,000 (3.1%), Slayton — $4,200 (2.8%)

De’Von Achane / Mike Gesicki

Achane should push toward double-digit ownership but still qualifies as a pay-up-to-be-contrarian play, as the field shies away from uncertainty surrounding the quarterback change. Gesicki is the cheap piece on the other side who can collect targets in bunches and carries real touchdown equity. A scratched or limited Tee Higgins only strengthens the case.

Achane — $8,800 (10.8%), Gesicki — $3,600 (3.9%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 16 has four games that pique my interest:

• Steelers @ Lions (52)
• Jaguars @ Broncos (47)
• Falcons @ Cardinals (48.5)
• Bucs @ Panthers (45.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Steelers @ Lions (52)

The game of the week, this spot isn’t going to sneak up on the field. Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf are both rightfully expected to be chalk. ARSB has at least a 32% target share in every game since Sam LaPorta went down. Joey Porter is likely to cover Jameson Williams, which furthers the chances ARSB sees increased target volume. It’s difficult to imagine a game script where ARSB doesn’t get double digit targets. Metcalf is the Steelers only NFL-level WR, and the Lions secondary has been burned repeatedly over the past month. Add that Lions offense is likely to force the Steelers out of their Arthur Smith shell, and Metcalf looks like one of the best values on the slate. Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to be the highest owned RB on the slate, which means most of the week’s chalk is going to come from this game. I wanted to say the field was overlooking Kenneth Gainwell, but late-week ownership projections have him also coming in as chalk. He has played half the snaps the past month and has seen six or more targets in four out of five games. My favorite way to stack this game is Rodgers + Gainwell + Metcalf + ARSB, but any combination of players feels fine. I’m also going to leave this game alone on at least one of my tighter builds, purely because if it bricks, it’s going to kill a massive percentage of the field.

Jaguars @ Broncos (47)

One of the most important real-life games of the week, this game has the number one seed in the AFC implications. The league has been treating the Jags defense like a pass funnel, and there is a good chance we will see a pass-first game plan from Sean Payton. Bo Nix is projected for under 10% ownership, and while Courtland Sutton looks to be more popular, he’s still well below the guys mentioned from the Pit/Det game. RJ Harvey has a tough matchup, but he can be paired with Nix in game stacks due to his passing game role. The Jags offense has a tough matchup, but the Broncos defense has benefitted from an easy schedule, and Liam Coen has the Jags offense humming. Travis Etienne’s price has risen, but he’s still playable. Brian Thomas is set for a date with Patrick Surtain, and Coen naturally wants to target the middle of the field anyway; it’s easy to predict a spike week in targets for Jakobi Meyers. My favorite way to stack this game is Nix + Harvey + Sutton + Meyers.

Falcons @ Cardinals (48.5)

This game was close to being my favorite of the week. What ruined things? Marvin Harrison and Drake London both look like they’re going to play. Michael Wilson and Kyle Pitts have been monsters when Harrison and London sit, but when those two play, they turn back into mortal men. They are both priced based on their recent production, which makes paying for them hard to swallow, but everyone has that same thought, and there is still a chance they see heavy usage. I don’t hate the idea of stacking this game with Wilson + Pitts, both of whom will see below 5% ownership. Michael Carter is set to lead the Cardinals backfield and can be included in stacks. My favorite way to stack this game is Brissett + Carter + Harrison + London, but I do think there is an angle of playing Brissett + Carter + Wilson + Pitts that could win someone a lot of money.

Bucs @ Panthers (45.5)

This is the game I think has the sneakiest shootout potential. It has a healthy 45.5 total and is expected to be competitive with the Panthers installed as slight (+3) home dogs. These teams play each other twice in the last three games, and it will determine who wins the division. Bryce Young doesn’t always look like he belongs in the NFL, but when he does, he looks like he should be in the Hall of Fame. He’s shown the ability to post a spike week, and everyone throws against the Bucs. A Panthers passing game stack is cheap (even with Tetairoa McMillan), and everyone is expected to be lightly owned. Mike Evans being back to full health also adds juice to the game environment. My favorite way to stack this game is Young + Tet + Coker + Evans.

Key Values

Bryce Young ($5,100)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 16 Topics

1. A Unique Slate

2. Dead Zones

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

There are a few things I could hit on ::

>> The unique calendar placement, where we’re close to Christmas and may have some focus falling off from our competition

>> The question marks that abound below the high-priced running backs

>> The tighter pricing that we always tend to deal with at this point in the season, but that always feels unique after a nearly-full season of prices not quite getting to this point

But I’ll focus, instead, on something that may only apply to me, but that nevertheless feels unique to me on this slate.

I mentioned this in my Journal this week, but I’ve had a very good year with betting — logging over 30 units of profit on the year. This is a good number — a number I’m happy with — which means that at this point, my mind has shifted more to “preservation” than to “growth.” And yet(!), on this one week, I have increased my pre-kickoff “units risked” by over 15%(!). I had risked about 85 units in non-live bets heading into this week; and this week alone, I have 14 units on the table.

Where this relates to DFS?

I put three units on the Over in Jags // Broncos at 45.5.

I put three units on the Over in Falcons // Cardinals at 47.5.

I put 2.5 units on the Under in Bengals // Dolphins at 50.5.

(I also put a full unit on a three-leg parlay that rolled all of those together at +584.)

That’s three games in which I’m essentially expressing extreme confidence that the game total was wrong. I feel very confident that Jags // Broncos plays to the upside. I feel very confident that Falcons // Cardinals plays to the upside. At this stage of the evolution of DFS, projections and sims are a big driver of ownership, and these tools leverage betting totals and spreads as a big part of their calculations. In other words: If we have confidence that a total or spread is wrong, well…we won’t necessarily be right — but we should treat this as “edge over time.”

Both of those totals have since gone up a point (though this won’t massively impact projections), and Bengals // Dolphins has since gone down three points (where it won’t be popping as much as it previously would have been), but this is certainly unique, and worth paying attention to from my end, in that A) I’m trying NOT to put as much at risk with betting at this point in the season, B) even with that, I wanted to get heavier bets down on these totals that just felt plain wrong, and C) totals are a big part of projections, which means I essentially have confidence that projections will be off in some spots as well.

Finally, I didn’t bet the under in Chargers // Cowboys, but I have felt all along that that total was too high as well.

Basically, in a number of spots, I think projections will be a little less sharp than they normally would be.

Xandamere >>

This is when we start to get into the “what are they playing for?” part of the season. First off: when NFL teams are on the field, they’re playing to win, because these guys are highly competitive athletes, they’re playing for themselves (and their next contract), their fans, their teammates, their pride. They aren’t just going to give up on the field and say “I guess I won’t tackle that guy because coach says we’re supposed to lose.” But what we DO start to see is teams utilize players differently. We start to see veterans on teams with no playoff aspirations start to take a backseat as the focus switches to getting younger guys playing time and evaluation at the NFL level.

A perfect example of this is Tyrone Tracy last week. Tracy has been in something of a timeshare with Devin Singletary for weeks now and Singletary sometimes outsnapped him, but this last week, after their bye, Tracy played 76% of the offensive snaps (his highest of the season) and handled 19 opportunities to Singletary’s 24% and 6 opportunities. It’s hard to predict those situations with certainty – and if we could, we would see huge ownership on guys who were suddenly fantastic values – but we can take shots. We can try to guess where it would make sense for a player’s role to change. Coaches don’t always do the rational thing and will disappoint us, but when we get it right, we can find spots where projections are just flat-out wrong because they’re projecting a much smaller role for a player, which means we can get a bigger role (and thus a bigger points projection) at very modest ownership. 

This is more of a “rest of season” dynamic than something specifically for this week, but as we get into the last few wild weeks of the year it bears consideration.

Hilow >>

After going through the slate and starting the roster building process, this slate feels like DraftKings is daring us to pay up at running back and hit the mid-range wide receivers hard. All of the backs feel priced up, even the “value” options. Within the context of this slate, with so many top tier options at the position, raw points are likely to matter a bit more than on a “standard slate” at running back, making players like Audric Estime, Aaron Jones, Michael Carter, and Kenneth Gainwell borderline unusable. That is part of the theoretical reasoning that has me giving a nice, hard look at Omarion Hampton, who would carry 30+ point upside against the Cowboys if he sees his snap rate increase (it hasn’t yet since returning from injury).

Wide receivers like Justin Jefferson, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, and Jameson Williams all feel materially underpriced relative to their respective ceilings on this slate. This pricing dynamic should lead to a clear “chalk build,” giving us a clear blueprint for generating leverage (again, is the answer Omarion Hampton?).

Mike >>

Something that I believe is often overlooked and not thought about at a deep enough level in DFS is evaluating slate sizes and therefore how that affects ownership, game theory, and strategy. On one end of the spectrum, we have Showdowns where all the players are from one game. On the other end, we have a handful of 13-game slates (like last week’s) or Week 18 when we get a whopping 15 games (along with a bunch of other dynamics). In the middle, we have slates of varying sizes which are often mentioned in passing as “this is a smaller slate” or “a lot of options this week!” However, the effects of these changes DO matter. This week is a perfect example, as we have 11 games on the slate, after having 13 last week, and next week we will only have 9 games on the Main Slate. These changes significantly alter the outlook of the slate and make it so our targets in terms of points and thoughts about “great play at ownership” need to be different. This is something that has become far more evident to me over the last two or three seasons as the NFL messes with various schedules and slate size changes so often along with the fact that I do the Afternoon Only article each week. On that slate, we have anywhere from two to six game slates, so a player pool can literally be three times as big one week as it is another. There isn’t necessarily a huge take away for you for this week in all of this, but it is more of a PSA of something to be aware of. A 3% owned QB on last week’s 13-game slate is not the same thing as a 3% owned QB on next week’s 9-game slate. The “unique” thing about this week is it is providing a bit of a soft landing between the two extremes so we might not be as aware of then change as we would if the weeks were consecutive.

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2. Dead Zones

The Question ::

The thing that drives me nuts sometimes is when people get infatuated with “motivation” for teams at this point in the season. They “have to win this week for playoff positioning!!” is kind of crazy to me because, well, frankly these teams only play 17 games and from the start of the season each game is extremely important. If a team was simply able to turn it on and win or be successful “because they need to”, then they wouldn’t be in their current situation to begin with. Sorry for getting on my soap box, but I think the greater point here is that implying some teams will be “more motivated to win” implies that others will be apathetic in their approach. Now, of course, some teams will make big picture decisions regarding player health or usage with a long-term view, but players, coaches, and teams are entering the stadium on Sunday with success on their mind. Coaches who have been eliminated from the playoffs are trying to justify keeping their jobs. Players are trying to maximize their value in contract negotiations and not put bad film on tape. 

The question here is about those “dead” teams who seemingly have “nothing to play for” and/or have a lot of turnover in their personnel from how they started the season. When two of these teams meet, the range of outcomes can be huge and being on top of one of these spots can be the path to big money in a week like this. There are often cheap “value” plays involved, defenses may be without key players, and teams may actually play more aggressively to see what their players are capable of with less downside risk. We have five games on this week’s slate where BOTH teams are eliminated from playoff contention entering the week::

• MIA @ CIN
• MIN @ NYG
• KC @ TEN
• NYJ @ NO
• ATL @ ARI

Which spot or spots from these are most appealing to you?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Well, if you’re buying high this week after last week hit the nuts, I have bad news for you. It’s highly unlikely this article this week will produce similar results. Why, do you ask? Because changing your process before or after a barbell result is foolish. Tempting, but foolish. I’ve been writing Willing to Lose for five seasons now, and depending on the structure of the article, it’s almost always going to be +EV to take some of what I put forward and put that in play. Some, not all, of the suggested strategies. Just like JM and Mike’s Player Grids. Just like Hilow’s End Around, Papy’s Process, Sonic’s MME pool, and every other article on this very great site. Sifting through content to find what resonates with you is the way to build lineups that win. Some people learn by doing the research themselves, while others are better at interpreting the data points and going from there. Everyone, including you, has their own style. In building lineups, in entering contests, and in competing in DFS. So here’s the thing I learned last week (really before last week, but it hit home moreso last Sunday). If you are playing large-field GPPs and you want to have success, you must build differently.

Small-field play is a different animal. Large-field play, however, it’s valuable to be different. There’s really no “wrong door” in those contests because if you believe in a crazy strategy, as I did with “team stacks,” as long as you have the story to support it, then why can’t it win? You rarely want to build in such a thin way in this unique way of thinking (not embracing any chalk, not targeting popular game environments), but as usual, you can strike oil when you are balancing the right mix of an outcome that can happen, but in a rare way. For anyone who did win last week by deploying the Jags + Lions stack written about here, you’re a real one! I hope you did so because you felt like you could see that same situation paying off, and in a major way. And I have to say it’s really cool when those underowned outcomes come to fruition. I haven’t landed yet on what and where I’ll play this week, but some situations are jumping out. So with that, onwards we go to Week 16…

Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans + Emeka Egbuka + Jalen Coker 

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 16 Overview

A quick programming note…next week the “Afternoon Only” slate is only two games due to the NFL putting three games on Christmas and two games on Saturday. Because of this, there will NOT be an Afternoon Only article. For me, a two game slate that is also a part of the main slate doesn’t provide as much appeal because in large field tournaments you are likely to end up either splitting with a bunch of people or playing some really thin options. Just not quite the same dynamic and so many slates on the week, so my focus will be elsewhere. Definitely feel free to hit me up in the Discord if you have questions on the slate, but the article won’t be in The Scroll for Week 17. Don’t worry, though. Week 18 is our best Afternoon slate of the season and we will be roaring back for that one.

Down to a four game slate this week and it is sure to be a good one. We have two potential shootouts, one with massive playoff implications in both conferences and the other with two teams who are drawing dead but have been at the center of wild game environments over the last month. We also have a game between arguably the league’s best defense and almost certainly the league’s worst offense. Finally, a massive AFC showdown between two teams who are known for their defenses but have the ability to trade punches if the game script plays out in a certain way. Should be an awesome Afternoon slate for us to chase some glory – let’s dig in!!

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Bo Nix – Nix has scored 20+ fantasy points six times this season. In five of those games, the Broncos opponent scored 24 or more points. The one exception was the Bengals who Denver beat 28-3 while Jake Browning was their quarterback. This game has a 47.5 point total and as we have discussed/explored there are clear paths to the upside here. Denver’s running game hasn’t been efficient, so if this game is played in the upper-20’s or lower-30’s then Nix is likely to be heavily involved and once again score 25 to 28 points with upside into the 30’s.
• Jared Goff // Aaron Rodgers – Not the archetype of our typical targets on Fanduel, but these two are set to square off in an explosive game environment with obvious options of who we would want to stack them with. A “Goff Double” with Metcalf and/or Gainwell makes a ton of sense, as does a “Rodgers Double” with Gibbs and/or one of their receivers.
• Gardner Minshew – Minshew is cheap, facing a defense that is strong against the run and beatable through the air, and has clear/cheap stacking partners. If a Minshew stack hits, you are setup extremely well to content in a GPP.

Running Back::

• Bijan Robinson – The best play on the slate. Atlanta’s offense should have a ton of success in this one and Bijan is their engine in an elite matchup.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – AVERAGING 32 DK points per game in Lions wins, compared to only 12 in losses. Detroit is a 7-point favorite this week and has a 29.5 implied team total.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – The game environment, volume, and ownership point to Etienne as being a sharp play. The matchup appears tough on paper, but Liam Coen’s backfield is something I like to bet on, especially in a spot where the passing game has a tough secondary to deal with.
• Omarion Hampton – Hampton has played two games since returning from injury and has 15 touches on 23 snaps in one game and 16 touches on 24 snaps in the other. He is a centerpiece of this offense and his role should continue to grow. Dallas should pump more play volume into the game than the Chiefs and Eagles the last two weeks, while the Chargers are likely to lean on Hampton as they chase the AFC West title.
• Javonte Williams – In the same game as Hampton, Javonte has a terrific matchup against a bad Chargers run defense (29th in run defense DVOA, 28th in PFF run defense grade). There is slight concern about workload as Malik Davis has been used more recently, but Williams could easily go over 100 yards and always has multi-touchdown potential in this offense.
• Michael Carter – Should have a huge role in a potential shootout. Very capable pass catcher and provides some solid salary cap relief.
• Kenneth Gainwell – An excellent way to access an explosive game environment at a low salary, Gainwell has been playing very well this season and pairs very well with the expensive Lions pieces.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

James Cook + Harold Fannin Jr. + Bills Defense

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• After last week’s massive 13-game main slate, Week 16 offers a more familiar-sized 11 game slate to build FD lineups from. This week, there will be seven early kickoffs and four in the later window. 
• Once again, a Lions game total stands above the rest, with their game at home against the Steelers sporting a 52.0 implied total (tops on the slate) and Detroit’s implied team total (29.5) higher than every other teams on this slate by more than a field goal.
• Detroit’s concentrated passing game saw only three players receive more than a single target last week. All three of those Lions players project to be among the handful of highest-owned players on this week’s FD slate, headlined by superstar RB Jahmyr Gibbs, priced at a premium at $9.5k this week, along with WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown at $9.2k, and Jameson Williams at just $6.7k.
• The starting point for my SE/3-Max rosters this week is considering how to play these key Lions players this week on one of the league’s most concentrated offenses that sports this slate’s highest team total. As you’ll note below, Gibbs is one of three premium RB options I like this week and I’m more likely to utilize RBs in that price range this week than WRs, but it’s hard not to play a Goff double with his two WRs either. These are all great options, and with such concentration, there are only so many ways to play it. Be sure to try to find some more unique pieces to play around your Lions this week, even in small field SE/3-Max contests.

Running Back Approach