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Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

Tier 1

• Kyren Williams – Elite volume. Involved in the receiving game and at the goal line. The team is likely to score upwards of 30 points. Elite matchup against a reeling defense.
• Christian McCaffrey – Same as Williams. Higher price tag but the same situation.
• James Cook – This guy just keeps balling out and his role should continue to grow. I would expect the Bills coaches to recognize that their offense stalled last week when they stopped getting the ball to Cook.
• Tony Pollard – I absolutely loved what I saw from Pollard in last week’s win over the Eagles as Dallas used him more in the passing game and in space. Some will see Rico Dowdle’s increased involvement as a negative, but I think keeping Pollard fresh and using him in space will open up clearer paths to “ceiling” games from him.

tier 2

• Rachaad White – Elite role and matchup. This game has sneaky shootout potential. Would be a “Tier 1” guy if he wasn’t priced so close to Williams.
• Antonio Gibson – Terrific price for a guy with a lot of talent in the game with the highest over/under of the week. Should be on the field 60-70% of the snaps and has a terrific skillset for this matchup.
• Aaron Jones – It is hard to put Jones in the “circle of trust” as he has let us down and battled injuries so many times this year and in the past. However, AJ Dillon’s availability is in question and even if Dillon is active there is a chance he isn’t able to do much due to his broken thumb. Jones has a ton of talent for his price tag and low ownership projection.
• Raheem Mostert – Despite the tough on-paper matchup, Mostert profiles as a great play due to questions about De’Von Achane’s health.

Tight End ::

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Saturday Strategy

–       On a small slate, like this upcoming three gamer on Saturday, one of the biggest mistakes our competition will make in terms of roster construction will be thinking about certainty or safety (what’s likeliest to happen) first and building around that.

–       It’s critical to remember that we are not building to maximize points, but instead are constructing each roster with how to maximize our chance to get first place. Wait, what? Are you saying I don’t want to try to score the most points??? While that seems counterintuitive, what I mean is to approach each roster with a certain game script in mind, taking a similar approach to how we think about and build for showdown contests.  

–       This Saturday slate provides us a unique opportunity unlike almost every other slate, where we can “build the plane as we fly”. This will be further discussed in the strategy section, but as more information becomes available as the games unfold, we can completely change our heading or direction (see what I did there) on where each roster needs to go.-       Finally, keep in mind that you don’t have to be different everywhere; several highly owned players will likely end up in the optimal.

Let’s Dive In