Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

Happy Thanksgiving! As expected, the site is continuing to hum this week, and we aren’t skipping a beat when it comes to having you covered for Thursday’s games. Let’s start there.

But first: I would be remiss here if I didn’t say THANK YOU before writing one more word. I get the privilege to express my thoughts each week here to a community of people whom I consider all sharper than me. I am not the most active OWS community member of the bunch on a week-in, week-out basis, and half the time when I ramble on this site, I wonder whether or not I’m making any sense. But every week, when I sit down to write for this wonderful site, I always smile. I smile because I know how cool it is to put anything out there and see what people think of it. I smile because I know how appreciative this group is for content that thinks, because at the end of the day, we all contribute the same amount to the success of OWS and the broader community. I’m grateful to you for letting me be a small part of it…

Back to the programming: If you haven’t already seen, you can expect to receive a “Full Scroll” for Thanksgiving today, ready to get you into lineup preparation tonight and into tomorrow’s kickoffs. After all, if you’re going to lean into it (by committing to covering this slate like we always do!), then we must lean all the way into it. It’s the OWS way.

It’s only three games, and we’re given only three(ish) days to prepare, but as we always discuss at OWS, we must find an edge in every slate. There will be many content sites out there covering this slate in a “lite” fashion, meaning ‘here are some picks and a few shows, pods, etc.’ But, in my opinion, one of the cool things about OWS is this: This community is so sharp and so diligent that anything less than a 100% coverage of a slate (Edge writeups, Scroll, pods, the usual) would just feel wrong.

Plan your time accordingly over the next 24 hours, and let’s dive in.

Black Wednesday (thru Friday this week)!

OWS is continuing the deals we introduced last week to get 80% off Inner Circle and the Bink Machine for about $2 per week from today through the Super Bowl. If you don’t have Inner Circle or the Bink Machine yet, this will be the lowest price to scoop them up until much, much deeper into the season.

Inner Circle = $46 Rest of Season (Code: BlackFriday25)
Bink Machine = $19 Rest of Season (No code needed)

The Best Thanksgiving Slate Yet?!

That seems to be the consensus. High game totals, mostly tight spreads, a few divisional matchups, and, importantly, no backup QBs—hooray! Most of us would agree we are presented with an awesome setup for the three games to kick off Week 13. I just want to point out that mostly everyone agrees, for what that’s worth. Well, what is it worth?

If we really get into it, every game has four true outcomes: Team A wins a close game, Team A wins a blowout, Team B wins a close game, or Team B wins a blowout. If we want to get fancy about it, we could add two more where the game environment is a close “shootout” or a slow, low-scoring battle, as those are two strong outcomes that affect scoring and fantasy points, but those two outcomes sit within the four true ones, if that makes sense.

As we look at tomorrow’s games, with Joe Burrow likely returning, it seems the consensus is we’re going to have three good games. What defines good? Packers // Lions is a 2.5-point spread, Chiefs // Cowboys sit just three implied points apart, and the Bengals // Ravens is a matchup we expect two offenses to find success, despite the touchdown spread. In other words, Packers // Lions and Chiefs // Cowboys are expected to hit one of two true outcomes, and Bengals // Ravens are expected to follow the same path, with the added third outcome of a Ravens rout.

To see things differently, we always should strive to adjust the macro, not the micro. The macro here is that 50% of the outcomes for the first two games figure to be unexpected, while 25% of the outcome of the night game fits the same category. I hope I’m not losing you, because this is about to get real…

I try not to speak in absolutes because it will come back to bite me. But the true spirit of “angles” content at OWS is to look at things differently, but not too differently that people will think we’re crazy. It’s also important to mention that the “path less traveled/unexpected outcome” is not likely to occur in all three games. Let’s explore these unaccounted-for scenarios in the hopes that one of the paths illuminates itself as we build lineups.

Packers at Lions…(likely to be a close Packers win or a close Lions win)

• Packers blowout win: Josh Jacobs returns from injury, carries his usual load, or, between him and Emanuel Wilson, they take advantage of a tired Lions defense coming off a hard-fought overtime win. Jordan Love likely does his Tom Brady impression of sprinkling work across his various receivers, and the Packers defense gives Jared Goff fits like it did in Week 1.
• Lions blowout win: Goff learned a thing or two from the Week 1 loss and handles Jeff Hafley’s defense. The Jahmyr Gibbs explosion continues, and the offense is sparked, not stymied, through Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. The Lions defense shuts down the Packers running game (4th in NFL in Y/A over the past three games), and when the Packers are forced to rely on Love, bad things can happen.

Chiefs at Cowboys…(likely to be a close Chiefs win or a close Cowboys win)

• Chiefs blowout win: Kansas City finally builds momentum. Patrick Mahomes stacks two wins in five days as the Cowboys defense looks out of sorts like it did in the first half against Philadelphia. The Chiefs get their running game going with the return of Isiah Pacheco, and that finally opens up play-action passes to Mahomes, to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. Dak and the Cowboys offense look stymied by a well-schemed Steve Spagnuolo defense, like they tend to do in the playoffs every year.
• Cowboys blowout win: Dak and the offense just keep rolling. Death, taxes, and the Cowboys putting up points. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens prove to be one of the more dynamic receiving duos in the NFL once again, and this new-look Cowboys defense makes Mahomes and the Chiefs offense look old and stale.

Bengals at Ravens…(likely to be a blowout Ravens win, close Ravens win, or close Bengals win)

• Bengals blowout win: Joe Burrow returns with a bang. The Ravens have struggled to win games against the Browns and Jets in recent weeks but came out unscathed. Lamar Jackson does not look right even as he puts up points against Cincinnati’s hapless defense, but more impactful is Burrow, as nearly every Bengal clicks and Ja’Marr Chase looks like a man possessed in his return from suspension.

There are some more “sure” bets, like the fact that the Cowboys and Bengals defenses rank first and second in opponent touchdowns per game. The question you need to ask is which of the expected outcomes happens, and which of the unexpected emerges as well. Across three games, we probably won’t get three unexpected events, but we’re almost always destined for at least one.

These are the games within the games on Thanksgiving. Navigate the balance, build those lineups that win, and take down a tournament!

Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

(And, as always, thank you for reading.)

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

MONDAY, NOV. 24 ::

INITIAL MAIN SLATE GAME-BY-GAME qb THOUGHTS ::

I’m going to focus on the Sunday Main Slate on Monday night and Tuesday night, while using Wednesday night to chip in some thoughts on the Thanksgiving slate. Late Thursday night, I’ll be shaping the Player Grid and probably dropping in a few additional notes, and I imagine I’ll have another wave of thoughts for the Main Slate on Friday night.

That said…

Well…

If this were opposite week, this Sunday would be giving us a banger of a slate.

Going game by game in the app at the quarterback position with some high-level thoughts ::

Rams at Panthers :: Not a good spot for the Panthers’ offense (of course), and this means it’s not a spot where we expect the already “overpriced for their typical production” Rams to suddenly spike for games we had to have in order to win the week.

49ers at Browns :: “Any team at the Browns” is usually a stay-away spot, and the Cleveland offense is usually a stay-away spot.

Texans at Colts :: “Any offense playing the Texans” is usually a stay-away spot, and the Houston offense is usually a stay-away spot.

Saints at Dolphins :: This is not the same Dolphins offense, and Mike McDaniel knows it. Tua has 205 or fewer yards in five of his last six games, the Dolphins have leaned into their rushing attack, and against a Saints offense that is unlikely to light up the scoreboard against a defense that has been playing much better of late, I can’t imagine McDaniel will spring an ambush on the Saints with an aggressive offensive game plan.

Falcons at Jets :: Kirk Cousins under center for the Falcons against a Jets defense that continues to play hard and play well; Tyrod Taylor under center for the Jets, with no elite weapons in the pass game, against a typically-strong Falcons defense.

Cardinals at Buccaneers :: Maybe this wouldn’t be “the game that stands out” on a typical slate; but it might be “the game that stands out” on this one.

Jaguars at Titans :: Maybe this wouldn’t be “the game that stands out” on a typical slate; but it might be “the game that stands out” on this one.

Vikings at Seahawks :: A tougher-than-average defense for the Seattle offense to contend with, in a game where their defense should be able to control things against J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer.

Raiders at Chargers :: A game the Chargers should control — but how much passing volume will we see, in what’s already a spread-the-ball attack?

Bills at Steelers :: Not a spot where we would typically expect Superman Josh to be called upon, against a Steelers offense that doesn’t put up points.

And guess what?

Yup.

That’s the entire slate.

I’m still listening to some recaps from last weekend. I still have lots of games to watch. And I haven’t done any practice builds.

I’m absolutely certain we’ll find some interesting components and angles as we move into this week — but from a high-level look, it’s ugly out here.

NOTE OF THANKS FROM JM ::

On a side note :: I’m thankful for the OWS community.

Some of you are new here.

Some of you have been hanging out with me on OWS for eight years (and have been hanging out with me for even longer altogether).

Regardless, I don’t take it for granted that I get to study the NFL and dive into DFS for a “job” at this time of year — and while we all obviously have things going on in life that are much bigger and more real than this, I strive to always give everything I can to this so that you’re getting the best I can give.

We haven’t been flawless this year — but we’ve been pretty damn good.

Let’s keep it rolling!

TUESDAY, NOV. 25 ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This is one of the more dynamic and interesting slates I can remember. First off, there aren’t any clear game environments to attack on a slate with no game above a 45.5 game total. The Thanksgiving slate leaves us with only 10 games on the main slate, and we’re left without many of the top options at quarterback. This slate also lacks much directional certainty. Those aspects combine to leave us with a slate in which the field is highly likely to default to projections and away from team and game environment bets. That immediately makes me most interested in finding the spots likeliest to return bulk production – more on this below!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is currently projected to carry the most ownership we have seen on a skill position player that wasn’t a fill-in running back this season. To be fair, he is one of the better on-paper plays on the slate, albeit one that carries a wider range of outcomes than we would typically see for someone carrying this much ownership. His median is fantastic, but his paths to true ceiling are likely thinner than the field is being real with.

BREECE HALL

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hall derives so much of his fantasy value from explosives, and the Falcons have done a solid job of limiting those plays this season. We’ve seen time and time again how low Hall’s floor is when he isn’t hitting for those explosives.

KENNETH WALKER

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I have a rule (that I just made up for this write-up), which is to never play a Seattle back at ownership. Walker has more games of single-digit fantasy output (six) than he does double-digit (five), with only three games all season north of a modest 13.1 DK points. He has seen only 36.4% of his team’s carries inside the five, although that number jumps to 62.5% in the previous calendar month. Walker derives significant value from his explosive run rate, yet the Vikings have held opponents to bottom-10 rates of explosives on the ground.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Always JSN. Always.

JAYLEN WADDLE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jaylen Waddle is how much this week? $6,800 is a steep price to pay for a player that has one game all season north of 20.9 DK points, on an offense that ranks dead last in the league in plays per game.

CHALK BUILD::

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Tyrod Taylor
Ashton Jeanty
Breece Hall
John Metchie
Adonai Mitchell
Chimere Dike
Gunnar Helm
Puka Nacua
Seahawks

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

NONE

There are no plays this week that I consider Blue Chips.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Release the Kraken”

Cam Ward + Chimere Dike + Gunnar Helm + Travis Etienne

Story:

“Cam takes another step forward”

Why It Works:

This would typically be a Beta stack for me (something I would only be considering in large-field play), but this week is thin, and Mike McCoy has been moving more and more into the realm of “letting Cam develop by letting Cam cook.” Since coming out of the bye two weeks ago, Ward has thrown 42 and 37 passes, and has rushed for 37 and 33 yards. The Jags face the highest opponent pass play rate in the NFL, and after games against Seattle and Houston, this is a much softer landing spot for the Titans’ rookie quarterback.

Elic Ayomanor is questionable, which could take some of the shine off the (already somewhat thin) certainty around this stack, but Dike has become a featured player in this passing attack, and between his explosive “ball in hands” ability and his role in the return game, he has scored 16+ DK points in three of his last five games.

And then, of course, we have the Titans’ tight ends against a Jags defense that trails only the Bengals in DK points allowed to the position. Unfortunately, Chig Okonkwo and Gunnar Helm continue to split work, but with Chig (foot) hobbled/questionable, Helm continues to look impressive. He has five or more targets in three of his last five games, and at $2.6k, he has 6.9+ DK points in four of these five.

Finally, we have Etienne, who has recent touch counts of 18 // 19 // 18 // 27, and is taking on a Titans defense that has allowed the sixth most DK points per game. We know that the Jags have committed to the run of late, and there’s no reason for them to shift away from that here.

Etienne is the only guy from this block I’m considering playing as a one-off (though I have had some rosters on which playing Helm allowed me to unlock some things, so while he’s Tier 2 for me as a one-off, I could end up taking a swing here), and this stack probably slots in below Tyrod and Brissett // Stafford for me; but given what this stack can unlock, I’ll still be keeping it in mind for my tighter builds this week.

How It Works:

The beauty of this stack is that it allows you to “lean into points” (the idea we explored in the Rams writeup, above), while still giving you genuine point-per-dollar ceiling. If things break the wrong way here, this still has “wreck your roster” potential; but if things break the right way here, this stack could genuinely be the reason you’re winning the slate.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“J-E-T-S”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Pay-up(Up)((Up?))

I’ve mentioned this many times this year, but as I’ve shifted back over to SE/3-Max in my play, I’ve been leveraging the Bink Machine this year to shop for ideas and to see what’s possible with various roster constructions. Said differently: rules I’m running this year are not “Rules for all my rosters,” but are instead rules I’ll run for a set of rosters to see what’s possible on a slate.

This rule instructs the Bink Machine to include two or three players from this pool (CMC // Achane // JSN // Puka) on 100% of rosters, allowing you to run a roster set with multiple pay-up pieces and collect ideas for how this might work this week.

$1.90/Week

Through the end of Week 13, you can scoop Bink Machine access for $1.90/week(!) for the remainder of the season(!). ($19 for the remaining 10 weeks of NFL DFS action.)

Full Refund!

If you try the Bink Machine and feel it’s not a useful tool for your hand-build process, shoot us an email and we’ll refund your money.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Matthew Stafford || Jacoby Brissett || Cam Ward || Tyrod Taylor

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• De’Von Achane – A rare combination of receiving ability, overall usage, and explosiveness. Achane is coming off a bye and is in position for another huge game.
• Kenneth Walker III – Walker has become the feature back for Seattle and is a big home favorite this week against the Vikings. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Walker break free for a long run against an aggressive Minnesota defense.
• Breece Hall – Usually a player on a team with such a low team total wouldn’t make my list, but Hall’s combination of talent, role, and matchup are too good to ignore at only $6,000 on a thin week.
• Kimani Vidal – Vidal’s usage has been massive in wins and modest in close games over the last five weeks. This week, as a 10-point favorite, he is likely to touch the ball 20+ times in a good matchup.
• Ashton Jeanty – Similar to Hall, this isn’t a situation I would normally have interest in, but Jeanty’s talent in a great matchup at a modest salary moves the needle for me this week.
• Devin Neal – Neal should have a workhorse role and is likely to catch several passes at a bargain salary. If he is able to score a touchdown, he has a strong chance of posting a 20-point game.

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

NO “ONE WEEK STATS” THIS WEEK – WILL RETURN IN WEEK 14

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Our Kind of Slate

At first glance, this slate is gross. Not a lot to hang your hat on. But chalk will form anyway—because chalk always forms—and the funny part is that the “safe” plays won’t be much more dependable than the pivots. That’s when things get fun for us. When the field can’t tell the difference between stability and wishful thinking, it opens the door for ceiling plays to blow past ownership and tilt the entire slate.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

DK Metcalf / Khalil Shakir

We know Buffalo needs opposing stimulation to get this game environment moving. If Aaron Rodgers takes a minute to let Metcalf get loose downfield, Josh Allen may have to step into the phone booth and throw on the cape. If that happens, Shakir benefits from the boosted volume he needs to hit a usable number.

Metcalf (11.1%), Shakir (9.6%)

Calvin Austin III / Gabe Davis

Cheaper, micro-owned version of the above. Toss this pairing into those rosters where you’re paying up for the chalk and need a volatility boost without the salary hit. When you’re throwing darts, you might as well start with the slate’s highest Vegas totals.

Austin (1.9%), Davis (1.0%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 13 has four games that pique my interest:

• Cardinals @ Bucs (45.5)
• Texans @ Colts (44.5)
• Rams @ Panthers (44.5)
• Saints @ Dolphins (42.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Cardinals @ Bucs (45.5)

This game is my favorite game environment of the week. It pairs two teams that have been leaning on the pass and have targetable pieces for DFS. The Cardinals are a different offense with Jacoby Brissett under center. They’ve been a top five team in PROE since he took over and there is no reason to think a matchup against the pass funnel Bucs would cause them to change. Add in all their injury woes at RB, and this looks like another high passing volume game. Baker Mayfield is clearly playing hurt, and his health is the only thing preventing this game from having a total of five points higher. It’s been ugly the past two weeks, but those games also came on the road against the Bills and Rams, two defenses that are hardly pushovers. The Cardinals haven’t been great on defense, and the Bucs are going to need to score to keep up with the red birds emerging offense. Who knew all the Cards needed to do was get rid of Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison. My favorite way to play this game is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + Egbuka. That’s not cheap, and you can switch Tez Johnson for Egbuka to save salary if you’re finding it difficult to make that stack work.

Texans @ Colts (44.5)

It’s rare that I’d have a game involving the Texans as one to target for DFS, but such is the state of this slate. The Texans have been excellent on defense and lackluster on offense. The return of C.J Stroud should help them offensively, but it’s not as if Stroud has been a world beater. This game hinges on whether the Colts can score against the Texans stout defense. If the Colts can score, the Texans will be forced into aggression. If the Colts fail on offense, the Texans have shown they are willing to play conservatively and try to win behind their defense. I see this game as an all-or-nothing spot. I’m going to dedicate one of might tighter builds to something like a Stroud + Collins + Thomas + Pierce stack. The Idea being that if this game takes off, it’ll really take off.

Rams @ Panthers (44.5)

The Rams are going to score points here, but are the Panthers going to fight back? That’s the question you must ask yourself before dedicating a high portion of your salary to the Rams. Stafford looks like the league MVP, and there isn’t much of a reason to think the Panthers will hold down the Rams offense. The issue is that the pieces you’d want on the Rams (Stafford / Nacua // Adams // Williams) are all expensive. It’s hard to play all four in an onslaught because you essentially need to punt the rest of your roster. There is also a good chance that the Rams defense is going to limit the Panthers offense. The Rams have given up under 20 points in five of their last six games, with the lone exception being a road game against the 49ers that the Rams won easily. It’s hard to see the Panthers scoring over 20 points, and if that’s the case, the Rams will probably be content to win something like 28-10. That’s not the type of game environment that typically produces big DFS games. This game isn’t easy to target, but I’ll have a Stafford + Williams + Nacua + Tet stack on one of my tighter builds.  

Saints @ Dolphins (42.5)

It’s not often you’ll see a low total (41.5) game included on my list of favorite game environments. This game isn’t projected to score a lot of points, but the Saints have been boosting play volume all season, and both sides have targetable pieces for DFS. The Dolphins are running their entire offense through two players, and the Saints only have a couple of viable pass catchers. De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave are all some of the best plays on the slate. With Alvin Kamara ruled out, Devin Neal is also an interesting value. The main question I’m asking myself is, do I want to play them in isolation or force them all onto the same team? There is a chance I end up with all three, with neither of their starting QBs as the foundation of my main lineup. My favorite way to stack this game is Tua + Waddle + Achane + Olave, which is surprisingly playable from a salary perspective.

Key Values

Jacoby Brissett ($5,800)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 13 Topics

1. Thanksgiving Hangover

2. Game Changers

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. Thanksgiving Hangover

The Question ::

Usually we start by asking, “what makes this slate unique?”, but this week the answer is fairly obvious. We are all humans and have a big holiday thrown in the middle of our usual weekly process. The result is we essentially have three slates in an eight day period (Week 12 Main Slate, Thanksgiving Slate, Week 13 Main Slate), which really tightens things up. Obviously in our positions, we still are fully involved and will break down every angle of the slate in our content as usual. However, the reality is that playing on “short rest” changes things. Is there anything about how you intend to play on this Sunday’s main slate (i.e. – the contests or amount at risk) that is different from your usual weekly approach?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Great question.

On a typical year, I would say that nothing changes for me.

In the past, “all day Thursday” was my busiest work day of the week (I worked on DFS Interpretations all day Thursday, then rolled right into Player Grid prep at night, and into podcasts and Player Grid on Friday). On Thanksgiving week, I would simply move my Thursday work to Wednesday and knock out everything a day early, which would have me roughly on pace by Friday/Saturday.

This year, with the Journal, it’s even easier for me to be “on schedule” by Friday/Saturday — and if this looked like a normal slate, I would be attacking it with my normal volume/approach.

But given the shape of this particular slate, I plan to cut my bankroll allocation down by 75%(!).

To be clear, this is not “a prescription.” If you’re reading this, and you feel you have extra edge on a slate like this, you should lean into that edge.

Since my “most core edge,” however, is “leaning into certainty,” this is not a slate where I feel I have the same edge I usually do.

I typically play $6k/weekend — and this week, I played $1500 already on the Thanksgiving slate and returned $3000. I’m turning around on Sunday and putting $1500 in play again, so on a busy week with an ugly Sunday slate that may not suit my strengths, my worst-case scenario is break-even.

And of course, as we get closer to the weekend, I’m beginning to gain more confidence in my potential edge — so maybe I’m able to come out of this week with profit overall.

Still, I’m not pushing it on this one. I have the time set aside for my normal play — and in fact, putting less money in play won’t change my time allocation at all. But I will be acknowledging the unique ugliness of this slate by scaling back a bit — and if your edge is similar to mine, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to do the same.

Xandamere >>

I love the question but my answer is a boring one…I play it just the same as a normal slate. For years now I’ve made DFS a priority over this holiday weekend because it’s one of the softer weekends of the year with a lot of casual money in play, both on Thanksgiving and on the following Sunday, so historically it’s been very profitable for me. 

I do think the question is an important one, though, because it’s important to consider why you play DFS. Are you just playing for fun, to have something to sweat, to give yourself another way to enjoy watching football? Cool, throw in a roster for a couple of bucks even if you don’t have time to really research and prepare. Have fun.

But if your goal is to be a +EV player, a profitable one over time, then it’s important to realize there are times when you should play and times when you shouldn’t. Don’t play when you aren’t at your best, and don’t play on days/weeks when you don’t have the necessary amount of time and energy to invest. DFS is hard and DFS takes time. If your goal is to be a profitable player, only play when you can commit to investing the time.

Hilow >>

This question really hits home for me this week. I’ll break it down as best I can.

On one hand, the multifaceted aspects of a season full of near misses and “the sweats not breaking my way” has worn on me, mentally. I noticed it a few weeks ago when I was considering blowing additional entries in the $555 Milly, which would have wrecked my bankroll for the season. Fast forward to a week in which the contest schedule has been extreme, and my promise to my wife that I would not work on Thanksgiving while spending much-needed time with my family, and this slate would be one that makes all too much sense to take off.

On the other hand, the state of this slate is absolutely ripe for a game theorist to have a distinct advantage due to its complexities.

With that, I haven’t fully worked through how I will be handling this slate, on a personal level. The next 24 hours (I’m writing this early Saturday morning) will likely be key in that decision as I continue to piece together one of the more unique slates we’ve seen this season (every slate is unique, but this one has a lot of elements we haven’t seen to this point in the season). 

Mike >>

I will be pumping down my overall volume on this slate, but primarily playing large-field MME and trying to lean into the uncertain nature of this slate and the likelihood of winning rosters being less common in terms of their build. By that I mean this is a rare week where we don’t really know where the highest scores are going to come from, which means if/when we are right we will have less people we are competing with. As such, I will be working to use a condensed player pool to shoot my shot knowing that if I am right on things I have arguably my best chance of the season to actually bink a tournament.

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2. Game Changers

The Question ::

We see it almost every week, especially at this point in the season. In Week 10, it was the Lions and Commanders. In Week 11, it was the SF/ARI game. In Week 12, it was the NYG/DET game. These spots where the scoring comes in such huge waves that somehow a game stack or aspects of the game become a “must” to have a path to the top. Each of those spots stood out as potential fantasy gold mines for various reasons, however, while this week all of the obvious spots seem to have been pilfered from the Main Slate and what is left is uninspiring. With all of that being said, the reality is that we are now at a point in the season where injuries start to pile up for defenses and desperation sets in for some teams while we also sometimes see changes in approach or player usage. The fact is that it is highly likely that there is a spot that emerges this week as it has in other recent weeks and since it is harder to identify that will make it that much more valuable to be on top of. 

Which game environment stands out to you as a potential “Game Changer” for the Week 13 Main Slate?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

A pendulum swings, and it swings. And it swings, swings, swings, swings. (Sorry, I’ve read a lot of Dr. Seuss books lately.) As it goes back and forth, so does an NFL season and the DFS slates within. My Thanksgiving slate didn’t turn out how I planned, with the seemingly inverse outcomes all taking place (light on the first two games, heavy on the last, and the slate goes the inverse direction). Looking back, however, and reflecting on lessons learned, my only clear oversight was the current state of the Lions defense and the effect of Sunday overtime games on Thursday teams (Lions, Chiefs). One of the real outcomes from Thanksgiving games this week is that no real game-overstack hit. Even with combined game totals of 55, 59, and 46 points, we had no clear, condensed game stack truly go off. All of the Mahomes-Rice-Kelce stacks did just fine, as did Love-Watson-Wicks, but the optimal lineups sprinkled players from each game throughout. Interesting to see, and rare as a three-game slate would more often condense on one game environment with target and volume “hogs” soaking up work. Instead, we had a slate where we were mostly left to guessing on touchdowns, with the Ravens and Lions flops stalling many lineups in the mud (like mine).

It’s Week 13 now, and my commitment from here on out is to overstack on every lineup I play. I am often stubborn in this endeavor, as my biggest wins have always come from going uber heavy on specific games, but as the pendulum (optimal outcomes) will swing from left to right and some will feature minimal correlation, while others will feature maximum correlation, I am tired of guessing. Pick a lane and go 100 mph (commit to it!). That’s a GPP mindset. It’s no fun to chase your tail week after week and always be a week early or late (feels like my whole 2025 season so far). Six weeks to go, I rarely expect many of you to build with me, but I’ll be throwing my entries into their own fields as much as possible, meaning I’ll be looking to build in niche paths and remain there. We’ll see what happens, as always, and that is why they play the games.

This “game overstack” or bust mindset came to mind first thing Friday, and then I looked at the mud on the Week 13 main slate. Then I saw JM’s Journal entry on why this is a perfect week to overstack. Then I felt even better (and also questioned whether I need to think more for myself), so here goes nothing this week.

Cam Ward + Travis Etienne Jr. + Chimere Dike + Brenton Strange + Gunnar Helm

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 13 Overview

This week’s three game slate has some interesting dynamics to dig into. Hopefully everyone enjoyed the Thanksgiving slate and realizes how awesome these smaller slates can be!! While this slate doesn’t give us the fun “Late Swap” opportunities and being able to know where rosters stand while we can still make decisions, there are a ton of fun angles to play with on these smaller slates. Some things that stand out this week:

• There are only 6 “Flex” players priced above $6,000 on Draftkings: JSN, Justin Jefferson, James Cook III, Ashton Jeanty, Ladd McConkey, and Jaylen Warren. If you DON’T play one of the top QB’s (Herbert or Allen), you can fairly comfortably fit four of those six players on a roster, with some paths to playing five of them. If you play one of the expensive QB’s, you are probably sacrificing one of those “studs”. Most rosters will have three players from this group, with some rosters having four. Finding ways to fit five of them on a roster or limiting yourself to two or less is a good way to create a unique roster construction without having to chase thin plays.
• Two games have clear blowout potential (MIN/SEA and LV/LAC), with the teams that are heavy favorites having expensive defenses and the teams that are big underdogs having super cheap QBs with clear stacking partners. Garbage time could be the MVP on this slate.
• The top QB options (Herbert and Allen) are very hard to know who to stack them with.
• The best running back matchup is the Steelers at home against Buffalo, but their backfield uncertainty is likely to result in their running backs having lower ownership than an on-paper matchup like this would usually warrant.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Jacoby Brissett – The Bucs are a pass funnel and Brissett will sling it with the best of them, likely to throw the ball 35 to 40 times with clear stacking partners and no semblance of a running game.
• Matthew Stafford – The front-runner for MVP is on the road in a matchup with a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in QB pressure rate, a great recipe for Stafford to add another three or four touchdown passes to his resume.
• Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence is capable of adding points with his legs and has a matchup this week with a Titans pass defense that has struggled all season, while he will have his pass catchers at full strength for the first time since the team acquired Jakobi Meyers.

Running Back::

• De’Von Achane – A rare combination of receiving ability, overall usage, and explosiveness. Achane is coming off a bye and is in position for another huge game.
• Kenneth Walker III – Walker has become the feature back for Seattle and is a big home favorite this week against the Vikings. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Walker break free for a long run against an aggressive Minnesota defense.
• Breece Hall – Usually a player on a team with such a low team total wouldn’t make my list, but Hall’s combination of talent, role, and matchup are too good to ignore at only $6,000 on a thin week.
• Kimani Vidal – Vidal’s usage has been massive in wins and modest in close games over the last five weeks. This week, as a 10-point favorite, he is likely to touch the ball 20+ times in a good matchup.
• Ashton Jeanty – Similar to Hall, this isn’t a situation I would normally have interest in, but Jeanty’s talent in a great matchup at a modest salary moves the needle for me this week.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – The Jaguars have leaned heavily on the run since their Week 8 bye and Etienne is their primary RB. They are favored in this game in a good matchup.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Jacoby Brissett + Michael Wilson + Bucky Irving

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• As mentioned across several OWS channels over the past week and a half, this is one of the busiest weeks of the year for DFS, with what amounts to three main slates in just eight days. I think it’s important to acknowledge what a great job all the contributors, editors, and everyone else involved in the process do, fitting so much quality work in around unusual travel schedules and other breaks in their usual routines. Great job OWS team!
• While my own content schedule wasn’t impacted this week, I was eager to take advantage of some of the team’s great resources and focused plenty of early-week attention on my own Turkey-day lineups, again focusing most of my play on SE/3-max contests. While I didn’t land on the perfect combination of players together in a single lineup, I felt good about my play and player pool overall.
• Because of my attention to Thursday’s slate, I got a later start looking at this Week 13 main slate than I would on a “normal” week and I’m admittedly not as far along in my process as I’d be most weeks. I’ll use this week’s article to walk through my initial thoughts as much as anything and the first thing that jumped out at me was that there were no games projected to be close and high-scoring affairs like we were spoiled with on Thursday. The FD main slate includes 10 total games, with seven early kickoffs and three in the late afternoon. Despite no teams on bye this week, the combination of the Thanksgiving games, the Bears/Eagles playing on Black Friday, and the usual SNF and MNF games pulls some significant teams, players, and overall talent off of this main slate:
  • At QB we are missing: Mahomes, Dak, Burrow, Lamar, Hurts, Dart, Maye, among others. There just aren’t as many high-ceiling QB options to consider as there are on many main FD slates.
  • At WR there are no Lions, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, Eagles, etc. to consider as core pieces or in-game stacks. We have no Bears, Packers, Broncos, Patriots, or Giants to consider as cheap WR values.
  • While we’re obviously missing some strong RB and TE options, too, I do feel like these positions seem more like a “normal/usual” week’s talent pool, to me, than QB or WR do on this slate with a mix of high-end options and mid-priced values.

Running Back Approach