JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS
TUESDAY, NOV. 18 ::
JM’S JOURNAL PLAN FOR THIS WEEK ::
What to expect from me this week ::
TUESDAY ::
I have a bunch of notes and thoughts from digging into the slate on Sunday night and Monday night, but none of these notes are in a presentable state.
Up next for me :: going through these notes, in order, and turning them into journal entries, which I’ll drop into here.
I’m still a bit behind on watching games, so I’ll probably use this evening/night to watch games from Week 11. Late tonight, I’ll get back to practice builds, which leads to deeper dives in my mind through various ideas, options, approaches, etc. I’m sure I’ll drop a few more notes into here (late) tonight as I hit that point in my day.
WEDNESDAY ::
I have a pretty full list of “work” on Wednesday, and will also be packing, etc., as we fly out on Thursday for Thanksgiving. I probably won’t have many (if any) posts during the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday night, I’ll continue working through the slate and dropping additional thoughts in here.
THURSDAY ::
We fly on Thursday. During that day, I plan to work through thoughts on a game-by-game level and see if there’s anything I feel I’ve been overlooking while working through the slate, while also digging deeper into my thoughts in areas where I’ve already spent time and developed thoughts. I imagine most of these thoughts will be posted on Thursday night, after we’ve landed and settled in (though if I have a chance to drop some thoughts throughout that day, I’ll obviously do so).
This will bring us to Thursday night, where I’ll be crafting the initial shape of my Player Grid, and to Friday, where I’ll have my normal content schedule (podcasts + Player Grid).
In all, we’ll have the normal flow of thoughts // angles // ideas from my end, with slightly different sequencing/timing. All said and done, it’ll all come out the same, but I just wanted to lay out the expected sequencing/timing, for any of you who like to know what to expect.
WEEK 12 BETTING PREVIEW ::
One final item before I start sorting through the early notes I have in my phone ::
Through 7 weeks of betting (Weeks 5-11), we’re sitting on +14.5 units after a “basically break-even” Week 11 (-0.09 units). I’m also up an additional 22.3 units in live betting, though that stuff moves too fast for us to ever really be able to ride that stuff together.
I’ll be in Oklahoma and Missouri Weeks 13 and 14. That means no betting on my end Week 13. Week 14 seems to be up in the air, as sports betting is supposed to go live in Missouri December 1, with DraftKings among the sportsbooks that will be operating from the start. As such, I may have some bets in here Week 14. We’ll see.
Until then, here’s what I currently have for Week 12 — several of which were dropped in here last week ::
2.5 units on the Seahawks -12.5 at Tennessee (dropped in here last week). This one is now -13.5, but at -105 odds, so I still like the bet. The bet, of course, is not that the Seahawks barely get to this mark, but that the Seahawks have one of their games in which the offense and defense are cooking and they’re up by three scores in the first half.
A half unit on the Ravens -14.5 against the Jets (dropped in here last week). I liked this one more before Tyrod Taylor was announced as the starter. The line is now -13.5, and while I’m not cashing out the original bet, I don’t know that I would take it again.
A half unit on Browns // Raiders under 37.5 (dropped in here last week). If I could go back in time, I would have put a full unit here, but with the total now at 36.5, I’m not adding to the bet. These low-total unders can tilt on a razor’s edge as is, so I’ll stick with the early value at 37.5 without pushing things further.
A four-pick parlay at +143 (dropped in here last week) of Miami to win vs Washington in Week 11, plus the Seahawks, Ravens, and Lions to win this week. These “high-confidence bets rolled into one parlay” are now at +2.6 units for me. I’ll continue to track them specifically to assess whether or not I think there is edge for me on these over time.
A new bet :: a half-unit on Falcons // Saints under 39.5.
GOFF + PASS CATCHERS ANGLE ::
I am going to keep coming back to the “Goff + pass catchers” stack.
My track record on this so far ::
1) Nailing it perfectly against the Bears in Week 2, but ultimately leaning on the running backs in spite of having highlighted the potential for this to be one of those “Goff throws a bunch of touchdowns, and the Lions score a ton of points” types of games. Goff ended up throwing five touchdowns in a 52-point game for the Lions.
2) Highlighting this spot heavily against Cincinnati, where Goff ended up throwing only 23 passes, Gibbs (who I had a lot of exposure to) having a disappointing game, and Montgomery getting all the goodness in a 37-point game from the Lions.
3) Going back to the well on “Goff + 3 pass catchers” against Washington, where Goff threw three touchdowns and the Lions scored 44 points, but where Gibbs was the guy you needed (and I was instead on Jamo // ARSB // LaPorta).
Basically, the Lions have scored 52 // 37 // 44 the three weeks I’ve been heavy on them, and I have yet to benefit. Which is kind of crazy…and which also highlights the value of something like Brissett + McBride (a staple for us the last two weeks), where you know you have an extremely high chance of getting those two spots correct. With the Lions, you can be directionally right and still be wrong — which is not something we typically want to waste a ton of time with in smaller-field contests, in particular…except that in the case of the Lions, the scores they can post are big enough that it actually becomes worth the risk.
Anyhow, we now have “angry Lions” playing at home against the Giants. This feels more like a game of 30-40 Lions points than 44-52; and again :: I love to pack as much certainty as I can onto smaller-field rosters (where most of my focus has been this year; also, packing certainty into the core of our rosters for large-field play is extremely valuable, and is something the field neglects to do as often as they should, or in the ways they should — with certainty that covers multiple spots and/or still gives you tremendous price-considered upside), but I still like the idea of considering this stack on tighter builds.
Against Washington, Goff + Gibbs + Jamo + ARSB ($28k in salary; target score of 112+) scored 112.7.
Against Chicago, Goff + Gibbs + Jamo + ARSB scored 120.4.
LaPorta is not around to steal away work from these guys.
This is definitely a spot where we could see 110+ from this group again. (Or maybe Goff only throws it 25 times, and Montgomery and Brock Wright score touchdowns to sink my Lions rosters once again.)
HURTS + A.J. BROWN + DEVONTA ANGLE ::
Speaking of spots where the ceiling is high but the confidence is low ::
Hurts + AJB + Devonta cost only $18.1k this week — giving us a target score of ~72.
Against Minnesota, this trio scored 94.4.
Against the Rams, this trio scored 75.9.
This issue, of course, is that a matchup against Dallas doesn’t guarantee anything for us at this point, with this offense.
One of the issues with the Eagles, as you know, is that they are wildly uncreative. They basically run a vanilla offense predicated on being bigger bullies up front than whatever defense they are playing, and having weapons that most defenses can’t stop. “Our guys can beat your guys.” And in the case of a matchup with Dallas, Philly’s guys can beat their guys…but also, sometimes Philly beats themselves. And also, Eberflus is going to throw zone coverage at the Eagles all day and say, “Okay, you have to be precise in the short areas of the field if you want to have success through the air” (which is not really the Eagles’ game). Coverage busts can (and probably will) happen — but will that be enough for fantasy goodness to pile up?
With Quinnen Williams added up front, DeMarvion Overshown added to the second level, and Malik Hooker now back on the field at safety, the Cowboys are also, at the very least, a better unit than they’ve been to date. To be clear: the Eagles still have a large talent edge here; but the simplicity of their scheme and their unwillingness to take the reins of a game on offense do create some opportunity for this offense to disappoint.
Basically, the straightforward “Hurts + 2” stack makes a ton of sense on paper, and the ceiling is there — but there’s also a reason this stack has only hit twice this year; and it obviously won’t be a total shock if it underwhelms here.
EARLY WEEK 12 QB THOUGHTS ::
Moving away from my notes a bit here, but worth touching on :: It’s early, of course; but so far, I’m not in love with much at quarterback this week. (Or, I should say: so far, it hasn’t been difficult for me to get down to a tighter pool.)
Lamar should score 25-28 against the Jets (he has scored 25.6-29.4 in four of six healthy games, with the exceptions coming against Minnesota and Cleveland), and is very much in play — but I don’t think the Jets are likely to push this enough for a “had to have it” game to come from Lamar. Of course…we do have Tyrod likely to make the Jets more competitive. Maybe I should be rethinking this one a bit.
Tyrod at only $4.3k is also viable, though it’s fair to question the ceiling against an improving Ravens defense, with limited weapons for Tyrod to throw to.
Caleb Williams has only hit against Cincy and Dallas, and is playing a Pittsburgh team that has improved on defense and doesn’t generally push games on offense.
Trying to take advantage of the Chicago defense will be either old-man Rodgers or Mason Rudolph.
We’ll circle back on Drake Maye in a bit.
Joe Flacco is facing a tough defense without Ja’Marr Chase (suspension — which is being appealed, but we’ll operate under the assumption he’ll miss).
Jameis has no weapons and is taking on a tough Lions defense. (Though if it’s Dart returning…well, the excitement/ceiling are certainly there.)
Jordan Love has only topped 20.9 DK points in a shootout vs Dallas and a comeback win vs Pittsburgh. He’s playing a tough Minnesota defense with J.J. McCarthy unlikely to push the scoring on the other side.
It won’t be surprising if Daniel Jones has another solid game, but a tourney-winner is a tough ask in Kansas City against what’s still a good defense.
Mahomes can absolutely hit against Indy, but the math rarely works in his favor, with this offense spreading the ball out too much for points to concentrate the way we like, and with his alpha target in Rashee Rice priced higher than his role really justifies.
Sam Darnold could easily end up with fewer than 25 pass attempts against the Titans.
Trevor Lawrence’s best games have been 28.2 vs KC with two rushing touchdowns and 22.2 vs LV with two rushing touchdowns, which isn’t something we typically want to tie our weekend to in our core.
Geno vs the Browns?
Shedeur or Gabriel quarterbacking the Browns?
Dak against this ferocious Philly defense?
Cousins with a dying arm and no Drake London against a physical New Orleans defense, or Shough against the quick/aggressive defense of the Falcons?
The quarterbacks I’ve been focused on in my early practice builds have been ::
Hurts
Goff
Maye
Brissett (another good matchup vs Jacksonville; another team that stops the run and is soft against the pass; even with price tags creeping up, it’s only $12.1k for Brissett + McBride, which has averaged 49.4 points per game since Brissett took over — a 204-point pace, on average, across a five-game sample!).
I think Pat and Lamar are interesting options as well, as is Dart if he plays.
And of course, you could go cheap and hope for the best with Tyrod. (Though if you’re going cheap…I mean, Brissett is $5.3k. He’s done it five consecutive weeks. He can do it again.)
Maye thoughts coming up next. (Actually, thoughts on that game…)
DISCORD
6,243 OWS Fam Inside
PATRIOTS-BENGALS THOUGHTS ::
I’ve scattered some thoughts around the Patriots // Bengals game throughout my early notes, but I’ll try to pull them all together here.
First off, we need to acknowledge that the thesis around the Bengals changes without Chase — potentially in dramatic fashion. The Bengals do not do a good job scheming their players open, keeping a defense off-balance, etc. We’ve talked about this for years, and nothing has changed. They basically go out there and say, “Our guys can beat your guys.”
With a poor offensive line and an immobile QB, the Bengals have used Ja’Marr as an extension of the run game, peppering him with short-area targets to keep their drives on track. When teams have taken this away, the Bengals have been able to counter by focusing on Fant (more on him in a bit) and hitting Higgins in one-on-one opportunities.
But unless the Bengals are actively scheming Tee open (which is unlikely), he’s going to be facing either tight coverage from Christian Gonzalez or double-teams (or both). He’ll still see targets, and he’ll still probably have a solid game; but as we talk about all the time :: the NFL is a game of picking up first downs and putting together drives. It takes only one sack, one big penalty, one missed connection, etc., to disrupt a drive; and if the Patriots are able to make life difficult enough on Higgins, the chances of the Bengals consistently putting together drives in this spot aren’t all that high.
Working in our favor here is that we know the Bengals will throw. They can’t run, and it’s impossible to run against the Patriots, so passing volume should be there.
Furthermore — importantly — the Patriots have faced the third most tight end targets in the NFL, and have allowed the most catches and fifth most yards to the position. At $3.1k, Noah Fant has averaged 9.3 DK points per game with Flacco under center, and he’s now playing without Ja’Marr Chase. At minimum, he’s about $700/$800 underpriced, in a great matchup. He’s a strong option this week.
Also, at $10.2k, Fant + Tee have game logs with Flacco of ::
22.9
46.9
18.5
36.0
17.9
Chase is vacating 22.5 points per game (with Flacco under center), so while this offense as a whole takes a notable hit, it’s still fair to say we probably get an extra ~10 points flowing to the floor of this block, which would give us an expectation of around 28-33 points even if things don’t break the right way here. That doesn’t win us a tourney, but in the same price range as Jonathan Taylor, we have an easy comparison to say, “Yeah, we’d be happy with that production.”
If we remove the game against the Jets, the combined game logs for Fant + Tee have gone ::
8-99-1
9-146-3
10-140-2
9-89-0
That’s basically Puka’s floor, but with a much higher ceiling for touchdowns.
With Chase out, something like 13-160-2 isn’t a particularly difficult hill to climb, and there is more upside above that (albeit in a tough matchup for Higgins, who will need the scheme to be more creative than it often is).
If picking one, I prefer Fant; but both have ceiling — and if you’re looking for a pairing to consider in smaller-field contests, this gives you a really nice range of expected scoring.
Swinging over to the Patriots’ side ::
The expectation is that Rhamondre Stevenson is returning this week. The standard party line among DFS content providers is to say they like it when uncertainty shows up in spots like this, but my instinct is the opposite. At what rate would TreVeyon Henderson have been played this week without Rhamondre? 50%? 60%? Not high enough. Even though ownership in spots like that can seem outrageous, I’m happy to lean into mega-high-certainty spots at high ownership, knowing that there’s still a big chunk of the field likely to be falling behind me.
Across their last six games, here’s what the Bengals have given up to backfields ::
39.7 — PIT — 28 touches
35.5 — CHI — 34 touches
53.8 — NYJ — 32 touches
26.3 — PIT — 25 touches
33.7 — GB — 27 touches
34.9 — DET — 34 touches
Across their last four games, Patriots top two backs have had touch counts of 28 // 27 // 35 // 35, and while TreVeyon has had some big plays of late, we can also comfortably say that the Pats are, at best, a middling rushing offense, which means that with similar touch projections to the offenses above, we should expect similar production — something like ~35 points for $11.9k in salary between TreVeyon and Rhamondre.
If the split of points breaks the right way, one of these guys gets 25 or so, which is nice; but this comes with question marks on workload split (and given things the Patriots have said throughout the season, I expect Rhamondre to get the start — and then it’s also tough to envision him getting a full 75% of snaps, which starts to really muddy this spot).
The Bengals, of course, have also been pasted by tight ends this year, with recent point totals of ::
13.6 — PIT
34.8 — CHI
17.8 — NYJ
52.1 — PIT
14.0 — GB
29.1 — DET
Where things get interesting is combining backfield scoring with tight end scoring against the Bengals.
Rhamondre + TreVeyon + Hunter Henry + Austin Hooper cost $18.3k — giving us a target score of ~73.
Here are the combined backfield + TE scores vs the Bengals across their last six games ::
53.3 — PIT
70.3 — CHI
71.6 — NYJ
78.4 — PIT
47.7 — GB
64.0 — DET
Are we playing all four of these guys together? Probably not. But it’s at least worth highlighting that this four-player block would have kept you on a tourney-winning pace in three of the Bengals’ last six games (which is absolutely remarkable).
Where things get even more interesting is that the games of 70+ for “RBs + TEs vs CIN” came in barn-burning shootouts, where the Bengals were pushing the scoring (or keeping up with the scoring) throughout. With that in mind, this block of four works best with Tee + Fant — as these two will be the primary engine of the Bengals’ passing attack. If we have the type of shootout that leads to the four-player Patriots block scoring 70+, Tee + Fant are almost certainly scoring 40+.
Because we don’t necessarily expect the Bengals’ offense to look the same this week, we have to lower expectations on that full block — but the short of it is, there’s a very good chance some two-player combo from that Patriots block performs well. Hunter Henry is also really attractive (the Bengals have faced the most targets and allowed the most yards to tight ends; they have also allowed 12 touchdowns to the position, which is five more than any other team has allowed to tight ends this year). If you want to bet on the Pats leaning on both tight ends heavily, you can also think of Henry + Hooper at $6.4k, thinking of them as a $6.4k player with a grab-bag of the following game logs available ::
13.6
34.8
17.8
52.1
14.0
29.1
$6.4k is the Rome Odunze // Jaylen Waddle // Chris Olave range. That would be a pretty good set of production.
Finally, Maye ::
I prefer Maye on a roster that really loads up on Pats and Bengals (say two or three Patriots from that bucket of four, plus both Bengals), and I probably prefer some other QBs to Maye (though if Chase had been available to keep the Bengals’ offense as scary as they can be, my outlook would probably be different). But if the Patriots (uncharacteristically) keep their foot on the gas here, or — a better bet to make — if the Bengals show up with a big game on offense in spite of missing Chase, Maye will have pathways to his first game of the year with legitimate, difference-making ceiling.
JAMESON WILLIAMS // JAHMYR GIBBS THOUGHTS ::
Swinging back over to the Lions ::
Across his last five games, Jamo is averaging 16.9 points per game…with a zero included in this stretch. Pricing-wise, the first wide receiver averaging more than 16.9 ppg is Pickens at $6.9k.
Also, a note I made on Gibbs for myself :: gibbs — tier 1; basically hoping for a big game on 17/18 expected touches, so betting on efficiency, which means the confidence isn’t as high as a Light Blue play; but the ceiling is as high, or higher.
EMANUEL WILSON // JACOBS // RHAMONDRE // TREVEYON THOUGHTS ::
This is the type of matchup where you would expect Josh Jacobs to score around 20; so if Jacobs misses and Emmanuel Wilson fills in, ~14 points in a similar role with a downgrade in talent is a reasonable expectation. Of course, 20 is still possible here, and 14-20 is a solid/comfortable scoring range for the price. A bigger game than this would be surprising, but we also can’t ignore the fact that weird things like that obviously do happen.
Running back is pretty thin (from a confidence/ceiling standpoint), and my initial practice builds had TreVeyon and Wilson. Since then, it looks like Rhamondre will play, and I’ve realized Wilson doesn’t quite have the ceiling I would typically chase — but given what this week provides, we still might find ourselves heading down a path like this.
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 19 THOUGHTS ::
