Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

You made it, OWS fam! 

After 207 days without meaningful NFL football, we have made it to Week 1. And boy oh boy, does OWS have you covered this season! (to the surprise of no one…!)

For any first timers joining the community this season, welcome! This group gets better every year and the 2024 season is going to be our biggest year yet.

We send the Angles email on Thursdays each week to provide a high-level overview of the Sunday Main Slate, giving you a first look of sorts into the week ahead (though for Week 1, who are we kidding, you’ve been checking out these matchups for months), including matchups to exploit, avoid, and invest in.

But before we do that here in Week 1, a few notes to orient you on what to expect in the days and weeks ahead. 

• Join us tonight during Ravens/Chiefs for the annual OWS Discord season-kickoff party. I can’t speak for everyone as we didn’t request RSVPs but expect a huge turnout, including our contributors, and as always we’ll be giving away courses and more just by attending and jumping into the banter.
• Second, everything is free on OWS this week. Another BAU (business-as-usual) item, but tell your friends, and have your friends tell their friends to give us a shot for one week and see what happens.
• Third, if you’re playing in season-long, make sure you sign up for the free, new OWS Daily Dose. This daily newsletter will go straight to your inboxes each morning during the season with all the information you need to be ready to dominate your leagues.
• And last, in terms of what to expect DFS-wise, it’s mostly the same (with some new editions, twists, and contributors that I’m excited to read)…as always we’ll keep it simple for you in two primary destinations: the NFL Edge (Wed-Fri) and The Scroll (Fri-Sun), where you’ll get all of our weekly content dissecting each game. At the bottom of The Scroll you’ll also have links to any off-site content from our contributors including podcasts and videos, giving you truly one place to get everything you need each week. Simple wins, right?!

BINK MACHINE!!!

It’s baaaaaack!!!

If you used the Bink Machine last year, it’s time to fire it up again.

If you didn’t use the Bink Machine (optimizer/lineup builder) last year, take it for a test drive with a Week pass!

OWS Survivor Leagues!

This should be a lot of fun. A cool way for the OWS Fam to compete and hang out throughout the season(!).

Available Survivor Leagues:

• $10 3-max (1k maximum entries)
• $100 single-entry (100 maximum entries)

(If you don’t have an account on Splash, it takes less than a minute to sign up. Time well spent!)

Week 1, We Are So Back

Now onto Week 1, let’s talk business.

I’m biased and I don’t want to tell you it’s downhill from here, but Week 1 is the best week of the season. 

Why? Because we know nothing. We all know nothing. And while most sites will tell you they know more than they do and position their content as such, we aren’t going to go that route at OWS. We’re going to accept this fact, and stick to what we do know, and apply our thoughts to maximize what we win when we win.

The reality is that we’ll all know a lot more this time next week than we do right now and there’s nothing wrong about that.

But what is so cool about Week 1? Well…

It’s Week 1, where preseason football matters and it doesn’t. I present to you Isiah Pacheco (good) and Kenny Pickett (bad) from 2023. Selective sampling but one of these storylines carried through last season and one did not.

It’s Week 1, where meaningful data exists, and yet doesn’t exist. Think Kyren Williams’ expected usage as the primary punt returner, the Dolphins running back rotation, Malik Nabers’ expected target share, or how the Texans, Packers, or Bears will distribute their passes. We think we know but we don’t know–yet.

It’s Week 1, when we have no recency bias. Could C.J. Stroud disappoint? Could Bryce Young be good? Unfathomable to think of either of those things at the end of 2023 but this is a new season.

It’s Week 1, where players are mispriced everywhere you look. Jayden Daniels, Geno Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell, Nabers, Rome Odunze, to name just a few.

And finally, it’s Week 1, where embracing uncertainty is encouraged more than any other week to find success!

As with most Main Slates, we don’t get the benefit of some of the top offenses and game environments being included, and that’s even more pronounced in Week 1. With the NFL promoting the return of its product for another season, it makes sense to feature the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, Eagles, Rams, Lions, 49ers, and Jets, and in the process, remove them from our sights for this week. 

But what we do get is the opportunity to break down the remaining 12 games with implied totals led by the Bills (27 points) with Josh Allen at home against a feisty Cardinals team and the Dolphins (26.5) hosting their Floridian counterpart in the Jaguars. Behind BUF and MIA, we have just four teams projected to score 24+: Texans (at Colts), Bengals (vs. Patriots), Bears (vs. Titans), and Seahawks (vs. Broncos). 

Targeting game environments tends to be the richest path to pursue, and here we have just three games with implied Vegas totals at 48 or more: Jags // Dolphins (49), Texans // Colts (48.5), Cardinals // Bills (48). Can the Jags, Colts, or Cardinals keep up?

Beyond those games, which will likely pick up some ownership, a few other spots to note for further examination…

• Seahawks at home against Sean Payton’s Broncos. New Seattle HC Mike Macdonald should bring it on defense against Broncos QB Bo Nix. Can Geno Smith and the ‘Hawks hit their stride right away with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb?
• Bengals hosting the Patriots. Will Ja’Marr Chase play? Is Joe Burrow healthy? Can the Patriots score any points here and will their defense regain last season’s form?
• Browns hosting the Cowboys. Tom Brady’s announcing debut. Offenses went to die at Cleveland last season, averaging 13.9 points per game (three of nine games with 0 TDs allowed). Dallas led the NFL in points scored last season. Which outcome are you backing?
• New-look Bears at home against the expected-to-be-lowly Titans. What if Caleb Williams is really good right away? What if Will Levis IS built different? 
• Washington and Tampa Bay. Daniels’ debut and a late-window game that could go in many directions. Washington’s defense lacks talent, Tampa’s does too. And we have new offensive coordinators on both sides in Kliff Kingsbury (WAS) and Liam Coen (TB). 

That’s just a taste of what’s on tap on Sunday, and I didn’t even mention perhaps my favorite game stack of the week. You’ll have to read The Scroll for that. 

But, as you can see, situations to capitalize on abound. So, so much more to come on the site this weekend.

Remember: Nobody knows anything. Take advantage of what you know and keep things as simple as can be this week. And as always, embrace the unknown.

We’ll see you at the Discord party this evening and on the site throughout the weekend. 

Enjoy having football back in our lives and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

~Larejo

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

We simply don’t know as much as we think we know about these teams. Look at Saquon Barkley on Friday, or Travis Kelce and Isaiah Likely on Thursday. Fantasy gamers fall into a false sense of security early in the season based on the six months of preparation we’ve done prior to the start of the regular season. And then the first kick happens on a team’s first game, and we’re left wondering why we came to the conclusions we did during that research. Get rid of the weight of the previous six months. Each new slate presents a new puzzle to unlock. We’ll gather more information with each passing week, but we must be honest with the fact that we simply don’t know as much as we think we know about these teams in Week 1.

With that out of the way, Week 1 of 2024 presents an extremely interesting slate with some very clear expectations from the field. We should expect DFSers to wake up on Saturday having had 12 hours to process the news from Cincinnati regarding Tee Higgins’ expected absence and Ja’Marr Chase’s status as either out or limited. They’ll have had 12 hours to process the news that Justin Fields is expected to start for the Steelers.

Beyond that, we don’t exactly have the standard Week 1 running back that enters a more robust role than was initially accounted for when pricing came out, playing for a top expected offense. There haven’t been any major injuries at the position during camp and preseason, which is atypical for this time of year. That means we’re likely to see the field scrambling to unlock the “skeleton key to the slate,” feverishly searching for the cheap piece that allows access to Tyreek Hill (the player projected for the top raw score amongst skill position players on the slate). Which brings us back to the Bengals and Andre Iosivas. More on this below in the “chalk build” section.

Finally, there is a copious number of players priced lower than they should otherwise be on this slate, which is a function of multiple aspects of running a DFS business. And then there are the players that might never be priced this low for the rest of the season, let alone the rest of their career.

If you’re new to One Week Season, Inner Circle, or the End Around, I structure this piece using a top-down approach, first looking at the macro, or defining, aspects of the slate before examining the chalk, scrutinizing how the chalk fits together on a roster to identify how the field is expected to allocate salary, and finishing with +EV ways to generate leverage on the field by exploiting their tendencies.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

TYREEK HILL

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A top two (one?) wide receiver in the league playing at home, where the team averaged 7.9 more points per game than on the road in 2023. Checks out to me.

RACHAAD WHITE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. There is a whole lot of assumptions that Rachaad White’s massive workload from the 2023 season will carry over into the new season. New offensive coordinator. New rookie competition. Cake pass-game matchup. There’s a lot of red flags here for me.

ALVIN KAMARA

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Kamara managed 4x his Week 2 salary three times in 13 games played last season. They came in a 14-target game and two multi-touchdown games. The four scores in those two games were four of six total scores on the season. His rushing efficiency is down. His red zone role is down. Taysom Hill looms as the preferred goal line “back.” The field’s focus on Kamara in Week 1 blows me away.

KYLE PITTS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cheap tight end on an offense we expect to make one of the bigger leaps in year-over-year pass rates this season. That said, what if Pitts just isn’t as good as everyone wants him to be based on his measurables? Reports surfaced this offseason that Pitts continues to struggle with attacking the football at the point of reception, hence all the passes defended on his targets. I tend to agree, to be frank. Of the 140 tight ends to run a route in 2023, Pitts ranked 80^th in average separation score. So, he’s not separating, he’s not attacking the football, and he’s not producing (0.31 fantasy points per route run in 2023, which is the same as hardened killers Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson, and Tucker Kraft). Just sayin’.

DRAKE LONDON

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Drake London lacks the speed (4.54 40-yard dash) and athleticism to provide high upside, down-field layering in his route tree, requiring elite volume to return a GPP-worthy score. Could he see that volume here? Absolutely. Is it as certain as the field seems to be thinking? Hell no.

KENNETH WALKER

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I’ve been hunting for holes to poke in Walker’s Week 1 fantasy profile. Quite frankly, I can’t find many. The only knock would be that he’s not an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield, making his projection a bit more fragile than in other spots on the slate. That said, he has the opportunity to be a true workhorse in this offense, which we expect to take steps forward in efficiency.

ANDRE IOSIVAS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Iosivas isn’t currently listed as one of the top expected ownership plays on the slate, but I have a feeling that might change over the next 36 hours before lock (I’m writing this Friday evening). The field is likely going to utilize Iosivas to access Tyreek Hill’s upside without sacrificing median projection throughout the remainder of the roster.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update:

Most weeks, very little has changed for me between publication of the Player Grid and the last few hours leading up to kickoff, but I always drop an update to the top of the Player Grid (usually before 6 or 7 AM Eastern — though sometimes it comes closer to kickoff); something for you to keep an eye out for each week.

If you want to know when new content is posted, you can turn on notifications for the New Content channel in Discord.

My QB pool has expanded to include Justin Fields, but nothing else has changed :: Josh Allen at the top, with a second tier of exposure consisting of Richardson // Jayden // Fields // Darnold // Herbert. Most of my single-entry/three-max rosters will be pulled from this group.

In order to fit Fields, I had to remove a few of my lower-exposure QBs, but I won’t go into detail on which guys I removed, as nothing has changed in my thoughts on anyone; I just had to make some hard decisions.

Actually, I guess I can go into detail on who I kept, as Daniel Jones, Kyler, and Minshew were all kept specifically because of my exposure to Darnold // Allen // Herbert, and I’m also not going to miss an opportunity to dedicate 6% of my builds to that Cowboys/Browns game (likely to be low-scoring, but as noted throughout the week: it has tantalizing shootout potential if things break the right way). Trevor Lawrence (getting exposure to a QB in that game environment) is the other guy I managed to keep.

At RB, I added Mixon to my pool of high-exposure RBs. I caught onto this play during my Solo Ship pod with Squirrel Patrol. (Shoutout to him for that call.) As I’ve talked about throughout the week: scoring at the running back position is generally pretty flat, so the first rule is “don’t beat yourself” by taking a dud (most particularly at the same price point as the more obvious/popular plays), and the second rule is “give yourself exposure to floor, and hope ceiling hits from there.” Mixon has roughly the same expected floor/ceiling/consistency range as more popular guys priced around him, which means that if he misses, he probably won’t kill you, and if he hits, he could provide a nice edge over the higher-owned guys. He’s also a great hedge off Texans pass catchers (to whom I still have plenty of exposure). Joining Mixon among my higher-owned backs, as expected, are Conner // Rachaad // Achane. I have 20% to 30% of all three of these guys. The only other running back I have notable exposure to (10%) is Mostert. I’ve added small amounts of exposure to Kenneth Walker, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Rico Dowdle, but nothing noteworthy.

My highest-exposure WRs are Shakir // Tyreek // Ladd // Nabers in Tier 1, followed by Jefferson // Palmer // Mike Evans in Tier 2. Others with double-digit ownership on my end :: McLaurin // Nico // Tank Dell // AD Mitchell // Curtis Samuel // Diontae // Pickens // Kirk. I’m currently rolling 6% Iosavis, 6% Trenton Irwin, and 6% Gesicki.

I still feel Engram is the best tight end play (though probably not the most +EV, given that his ownership will be higher than it should be), and I’ll have him on just under 20% of rosters (all paired with Dolphins pieces). Dalton Kincaid is the only other guy I have double-digit ownership of (12%), with a complete mix-and-match behind these guys. Names added to my list since the Player Grid was published :: Pat Freiermuth (4%, paired with Fields/Pickens) // Taysom Hill (6%) // Juwan Johnson (4% — both these Saints pieces are being played exclusively opposite Diontae, to create a lower-owned way of playing him) // Jonnu (6%) // Mundt (8% — mostly with Darnold and JJ or with Darnold and Addison) // Dulcich (on my list then off my list then back on it; 4%).

If Russ ends up starting, I’ll probably hand-alter my Fields rosters — switching a few over to Russ, and switching the rest to the QBs I’m primarily focused on.

I’m going to bed for a few hours, and I may move a few final pieces around on my rosters before kickoff, but this gives you a good idea of where my head is at heading into Sunday.

Bink Machine Users:

My rules have been uploaded to the Bink Machine, if you want to check them out. Remember to save your own rules before you do that!

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Sam Darnold
J.K. Dobbins
Javonte Williams
Jordan Addison
Ladd McConkey
Rome Odunze
Dalton Kincaid
Malik Nabers
Texans

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Josh Allen

The Cardinals come into the season as PFF’s 32nd-graded defensive line, linebacking unit, and secondary (ouch), and Josh Allen comes into the season having heard all the questions about whether or not this offense is capable of being elite without Stefon Diggs. The Bills’ coaches have had extra time to prepare for this game, and last year the Bills scored 30+ points seven times in 19 games, with only one of those games being close on the scoreboard (i.e., they don’t need a shootout in order to score 30+ points; they are one of the rare NFL teams that is happy to score as quickly and consistently as they can, regardless of what the opponent is doing). It’s highly unlikely the Bills “fail” in this spot; and while that doesn’t guarantee a monster game from individual Bills pieces, it does mean you’re unlikely to get rekt for playing these guys, and there’s a good chance the Bills prove to be really valuable pieces.

Tyreek Hill

As we often say: 30-point scores are valuable, no matter how much you paid for them. It’s rare that you get more than a handful of 30-point scores on a given DFS weekend, and while 30 points at Tyreek’s price tag won’t kill you if you miss it, it ALWAYS helps a roster to have exposure to that type of score.

Last year, Tyreek scored 30+ in six of 17 games, and scored 25.8+ in nine of 17 games. His chances of “burying you for not having had him” aren’t massive in this spot (i.e., you probably won’t get punished for having rosters without him); but if you can fit him, he’s likely to be a great addition to your roster.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“So Obvious, It’s Hidden”

Herbert + Ladd + Palmer

Story:

“Herbert throws for 300 yards and three scores”

Why It Works:

Is Herbert “more likely” than some other QBs on the slate to score 25 to 30 DK points? No, he’s not. But if he DOES score 25 to 30 DK points, do we know who will benefit? Absolutely! I talked about this in DFS Interpretations, in the Block Party with Pete Overzet, and in the Angles Pod (search “One Week Season” on your favorite podcast player), so I won’t belabor the point here. But basically, the “first bet” (the “directional bet”) is not as likely to hit in this spot as some other spots you could isolate, which makes this appear to have a lower expected value than it has. And the reason it has a high expected value (i.e., if we could play out this slate 100 times, this block would make you a lot of money) is because the second bet down the line is HEAVILY correlated with the first bet. If the Texans have a big game through the air, any one of three or four guys could benefit. If the 49ers have a big game on offense, CMC might be the only guy who hits (at a much lower score than you would really like at his price tag), or maybe Deebo has a solid game, or maybe Aiyuk does, or maybe Kittle does…or maybe one of those latter three goes for a score you “had to have” in order to win. The second bet down the line is important to think about. And in this spot, if Herbert has a big game, it’s probably NOT because Quentin Johnston and Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly are popping off. Over the course of the season, I expect Herbert to average 32 to 35 pass attempts per game; and if he does, Ladd and Palmer should combine to average 14 to 18 targets per game. This means that both guys will see a repricing over the next four to six weeks…which means both guys are currently very underpriced. This three-player block should go overlooked, and it can return extreme value if it hits.

How It Works:

There will probably be two times this season (possibly three) when we see Herbert + Palmer + Ladd go for around 80 DraftKings points. If that happens this week, at low ownership and a total price tag of $15.7k, you’ll be way ahead of the field. However, you’ll still probably need a couple more explosive scores to truly take down a tourney. I’ll remain aggressive with other spots on my Herbert doubles this week.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“All The Offense”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

“If Stroud”

Stroud topped 28 DK points two times last year. (Hint: that’s not a lot.) If he’s hitting for a tourney-winning score this week (30+ points), it’s almost certainly because the Colts are also putting up points. And if the Colts are also putting up points, doesn’t it stand to reason that a “do it all” QB (Anthony Richardson) at a much lower price tag is likely to be a better way to spend salary in this spot? Said differently: the story in which it makes sense to roster Stroud over Richardson is almost certainly A) The Colts score a lot of points, stimulating a shootout environment, and B) Anthony Richardson is not the guy scoring those points (which means Jonathan Taylor almost certainly is).

I may not end up with any Stroud this week; but if I do, this will be a hard-and-fast rule for me. “On 100% of rosters that have Stroud, also include Jonathan Taylor.”

“Falcons Mix-&-Match”

You know the drill: there’s a good chance this is a concentrated offense, and there’s a good chance this is also a productive offense. A matchup against the Steelers isn’t the best spot, so I won’t go TOO hard on this in Week 1, but I definitely want exposure. This rule says, “On 40% or rosters, include exactly one player from this pool.”

“Houston Mix-&-Match”

You know the drill: there’s a good chance one of these guys hits for 25+, with potential for 35+. If that happens, I’ll want exposure to that score. This rule says, “On 45% of rosters, include exactly one player from this pool.”

“Chargers Mix-&-Match”

Rule 1 says “on 60% of rosters, include at least one of Ladd // Palmer, and as many as 2.”

Rule 2 says, “if I have BOTH Ladd and Palmer on a roster, include a QB from this game.”

I’ve talked about this throughout the week, but the basic gist: I expect Herbert to average 32 to 35 pass attempts per game. That could include some 28-attempt games, and some 40-attempt games, but if he lands in that range, then Ladd/Palmer will likely land in a range of 14-18 combined targets per game. If that’s the case, both of these guys will carry higher price tags a month from now, with one likely in the high-$5ks, and the other likely in the low-$6ks. It’s great Week 1 value with a high floor/ceiling combo.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll update you at the top of the Player Grid on Sunday morning.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Vikings // Giants (Mostly Darnold; some Daniel Jones) || Anthony Richardson || Jayden Daniels || Justin Herbert

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback::

• Kyler Murray – This Cardinals team is going to be A LOT of fun this year and they get a potential shootout in Week 1 to kick things off. The Bills defense is also likely to take a step back this year as well.
• Anthony Richardson – Elite rushing ability and another potential shootout. Richardson played a short time in 2023 but was electric in that time. I want to be in on the ground floor before he’s $1,000 more in a month.
• Josh Allen – Plenty of “bargains” from a salary perspective this week makes paying up for Allen relatively easy. The Cardinals defense is likely to be on the weaker side this year and as noted under Murray, they seem likely to be involved in several shootouts.
• Geno Smith – Of the QBs priced under $6,000 I find Geno the most interesting because I believe this spot will go overlooked and people have the Seahawks of the past stuck in their minds. Geno has clear stacking partners and an underrated matchup.
• Salary Savers: Bo Nix, Justin Fields (if Russell Wilson is out)

Running Back::

• Kenneth Walker – The drumbeat out of Seattle the last month has been one of excitement about the new offense and all indications are Walker will be more of a 70-80% RB this year as opposed to the 55-65% RB he was in 2023. An increase in efficiency and usage is everything we can ask for in a running back.
• De’Von Achane – The most efficient RB in the league last year is supposedly going to have a bigger role and be used split out as a wide receiver. 10 to 14 carries and 5 to 7 targets seems very viable in this spot.
• Joe Mixon – Mixon gets a bad rep for his poor efficiency in Cincinnati, but the Texans running scheme should open more holes for him than he has had in past years. The “other” Texans RBs are mediocre at best, meaning Mixon should be a workhorse in a potential shootout. Giddy up.
• James Conner – Conner scored at least 17 Draftkings points in his last five games of 2023, surpassing 20 in four of them and averaging over 25 DK points during that stretch. This Bills defense is not what it has been in past years and Conner is going to resume his workhorse role for as long as he stays healthy.
• D’Andre Swift – The Bears offense is going to be electric this year. At least that’s what I believe. I also believe the Bears staff is going to use Swift in a way that plays to his strengths (pass catching, playing in space, weapon in the red zone) after targeting him in free agency and making him the very first player signed by any team when the free agent period opened. They did that because they had a plan and I can’t wait to see what it is.
• Rico Dowdle – I think there is a very real chance that Dowdle is the lead back for a Cowboys team that was a top-3 offense after their bye week offensive philosophy change in 2023. Dowdle is priced at $4,600 and could be an absolute steal. I’m playing it before I see it.
• Salary Savers: Dowdle, Jaleel McLaughlin, Chase Brown, JK Dobbins

Wide Reciever::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Embracing the $5 Chaos

The first week of an NFL season is unlike any other. Everyone is geeked about the return of America’s favorite sport. Casual football fans will be more inclined to try new things. This creates a unique opportunity for the DFS sites. The cheap, massive, top-heavy tournaments were born as an attempt to lure some new fish onto the hook. “Turn $5 into $1,000,000” they say. Got em!

We’ll probably need to hit the near-nuts to profit in these tournaments. In fact, investing multiple entries in these lotteries is pretty much a fool’s errand. 

I’m IN!!! 

We’re just going to need to pivot off some of the chalk in our efforts to pass a few hundred thousand rosters on our way to the top. Easy game. 

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I will be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

Secondary Core-Relations

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 1 features three high total games: 1) Ari // Buf, 2) Hou // Ind, and 3) Jax // Mia – all three are projected to produce 48 plus points.
• There are two middling games (Ten // Chi & Was // TB) with totals between 44 and 46. The Ten // Chi game saw its total bet up well in advance of Week 1.
• The seven other games on the slate have totals between 40-42, with Pit // Atl the highest of the group at 42.
• There is a clear divide between the most and least desirable games on this slate. Ownership is likely to reflect the difference in totals.
• Week 1 is always full of value but the “must plays” often end up over-owned for their likelihood of hitting.
• “We don’t know as much as we think we know” is never truer than in Week 1. 

Pawn – RB Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300)

There are a lot of guys who I could’ve put in this space since value is always abundant in Week 1. There will be lots of “free square” players, especially at WR. They are all good plays in a vacuum, and there is a strong chance at least one of the popular salary savers posts a good score. So, why didn’t I make a list of all those guys? One of the best ways to try and win first place in Week 1 is to stay away from all the “must plays” that are going to have a higher chance of failure than their ownership implies. Jaleel is my favorite under-the-radar player this season. He has been nothing but productive at every level, and never gotten the credit he deserves because he’s small. It would surprise most people to learn that he is college football’s all-time leading rusher. Sure, all his stats didn’t come at the highest level, but what can he do other than run for 400 yards a game? He now finds himself in a Sean Payton offense occupying the “non-primary ball carrier” job. That role has produced a ton of fantasy goodness for years (even before Alvin Kamara), and Jaleel has plenty of juice to take advantage of that. He had some of the best advanced metrics last season, catching 31 of his 36 targets, and posting 5.4 yards per carry (YPC) on 76 attempts. The Seahawks got whacked by RBs last year, and despite using their first round pick on DT Byron Murphy, resigning DT Leonard Williams, and bringing in LB Tryel Dodson, they still look like an attackable front seven, especially with quickness. Javonte Williams ($5,500) should draw some ownership (he’s also a quality play), but Jaleel should see sub-3 % ownership and is $1,200 cheaper. He’s the type of player who could post a surprise 20-point game if he breaks a screen pass. His locked-in receiving role, plus a cheap price tag, means even if he doesn’t hit big this week, he probably won’t crater your roster. Play for first. Play Jaleel.

Knight – TE Kyle Pitts ($4,600)

Expectations are sky-high for Pitts and the rest of Atlanta’s offense entering their first season with a capable QB and offensive coordinator. The 100-million-dollar man Kirk Cousins is the best QB Atlanta has had since Matt Ryan, and Zac Robinson is a bright offensive mind coming from Sean McVay’s system. Pitts is priced affordably for a TE who has the athletic talent to create big plays, and his matchup against the Steelers is sneaky good. Joey Porter Jr. was used heavily in shadow coverage after he became a starter in Week 8 and mostly took away the other team’s best WR. Without much of a WR2 threat, I suspect we see Porter Jr. chase Drake London for much of the game. That’s a tough matchup for London, and with newly acquired (in the Dionte Johnson trade) CB Donte Jackson on the other side, the matchup is no picnic for Darnell Mooney. Enter Pitts who will get to attack the soft center of the Steelers pass defense. ILB Patrick Queen is overall good, but more of a run-stopper/pass rusher, and ILB Elandon Roberts is a 30-year-old former sixth round pick on his third team who ran a 4.6 40-yard dash in his prime. SS Deshon Elliot is another former sixth round pick who is on his third team in three years. Rookie LB Payton Wilson is 6’4 and blazed a 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine. He looked great during the preseason and would be the best player to match up with Pitts. That doesn’t matter because Mike Tomlin is a donkey who doesn’t play rookies at the start of the year. Wheels up for Pitts.

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 1 Topics

1. Week 1: A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. An Inefficient Market

3. Value Plays

4. Ahead of the Curve

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle :: What makes this slate particularly unique?

The answer to this question this week is fairly obvious – it’s Week 1!!

• Pricing has been out for well over a month, leading to many situations where players have far different roles and/or team situations than their pricing from pre-training camp would have indicated. 
• This is in addition to the already soft pricing the sites always have in Week 1 as they try to draw in new customers and give them a great experience. 
• Players and coaches have changed locations, a new crop of rookies entered the league, and the veteran players are a year older and closer to the NFL woodshed. Teams have had months to rethink their approach as they all embark on a journey with a common goal – we have no idea where those internal discussions, plans, reactions to their own situation, and reactions to league trends will take each team. While we saw at least some action from starting units during the preseason, this is the first real game action since the Super Bowl…there are a lot of situations we have strong beliefs in right now that will look silly by Week 4. 

With all of those things as common and clear factors about the “uniqueness” of Week 1 NFL DFS, we will change course from the “standard” tone of this question we have on a weekly basis and instead ask a more philosophical question: Are there any ways in which you approach Week 1 differently or have different expectations than that of a “typical” DFS week? Bankroll management, contest selection, player selection, etc.

The Answers ::

JM >>

So…a programming note.

We ask this same question at the top of the Oracle in Week 1 each year. This year, Mike (who comes up with the Oracle questions) left our 2023 answers in place, in case we wanted to reference those, or just use them — given that they are fairly evergreen answers, with sharp thinking/takes behind them.

After reading through my 2023 answer to this question, I felt it was no longer “totally my answer” to this question this week…but I also felt it had some really valuable thoughts/insights, so I’m leaving that answer (labeled as my 2023 answer) below.

As to fresh thoughts for this year:

I’m answering this question on Friday morning, fresh off last night’s Ravens/Chiefs game. In that game, both offenses had to open things up, we had lots of back-and-forth momentum, and we were a shoe tip away from a game total of 53 to 55 (the Ravens were set to go for two, rather than sending the game to overtime, so the game total would have landed in one of those two buckets). And yet, Derrick Henry had only 43 yards, Travis Kelce had only 34 yards, Mark Andrews was invisible all game, Zay Flowers finished under 40 receiving yards on 10 targets, Lamar Jackson ran for 122 yards(!) and still failed to top 30 DraftKings points, and Patrick Mahomes threw only one touchdown pass. Rashee Rice went for 100 yards, but failed to score a touchdown (a solid but unspectacular 20.3 DraftKings points). Which means that in a game that featured both offenses opening things up, and some back-and-forth-momentum, and “a shoe tip away from a game total of 53 or 55,” Lamar’s strong price-considered effort and Isaiah Likely’s 29.1 DraftKings points were the only scores that would have really mattered if this game had been on the Main Slate. (And if this game had been on the Main Slate, Likely’s ownership surely would have been under 3%.)

NFL games are very complex. The way scoring and fantasy production develop and pile up are complex. And yet, we come out of a game like that, and on Friday can still hear people talking about the upcoming games this weekend as if they are all being played on a piece of paper.

Most of the expectations people have for players heading into Week 1 will be wrong!!! Among running backs playing on the Main Slate, only De’Von Achane (in 10 games no less) posted more than three elite DraftKings scores all season last year (and among RBs on this week’s Main Slate, there were about 10 scores, all season, among all the RBs on this slate combined, that would have “buried you for not having played that guy at his salary” last year). And yet, people are going to flock to certain running backs, and will feel confident that running back will return a high-end score (and then will be surprised and disappointed when they don’t!).

Same goes for wideouts, and tight ends, and even quarterbacks.

Remember: most players are priced in such a way that they will hit 4x their salary roughly 25% of the time(!). Most of these games are not going to go the optimistic/high-upside way people see them going on paper, and most of the production will not be distributed as cleanly as it will be on paper.

Furthermore, guys like Rico Dowdle, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and J.K. Dobbins (just as a few examples) may have much bigger roles than anyone is anticipating.

Things are going to be a bit funky this week — because every NFL week is like that.

The more we can put our minds in this mid-season space, the more we can benefit. Think about what NFL games actually look like. Play out some of these games in your minds. Most of these games will be close and somewhat low-scoring in the first half, and it will be the decisions and aggressiveness (or lack of aggressiveness) at the end of the first half that sets the tone for the rest of the game. How can you best benefit from what might happen?

Finally — as we move into that 2023 writeup (for any of you who want to read it) — I’ll note that, if memory serves, I finally grabbed a profitable Week 1 last year. But I also took Puka Nacua ($3k DraftKings price tag; 0% owned in the $1500 single-entry contest) off my Main roster on Sunday morning last year — failing to follow through on my conviction there, and costing me somewhere around $100,000 in profit. Which serves as a reminder that we sometimes have to guess in Week 1, and it’s sometimes uncomfortable to do so…but that’s where the biggest edges often lie. That’s where there’s money to be made.

My 2023 answer::

Personally, I have to recognize that my greatest edge in DFS is the way I am able to combine my understanding of DFS strategy/theory with my understanding of teams, players, and coaches across the NFL. There’s a balance between these two strengths that begins to really hit its stride around Week 3 or 4, and my best weeks of the season typically come in Week 6 and beyond. Obviously, there is a way to move closer to one point (the strategy/theory side), shifting the balance in that direction in the early going and gradually moving to my natural balance as we get deeper into the season, but I recognize that this is easier said than done.

I have actually not had a profitable Week 1 since OWS was started (in 2018!), which on the one hand is still a small sample size (five slates), but on the other hand…this results-based fact can be added into the bucket of knowledge regarding potential opportunities for shortcomings in my play early in the season to push me toward the conclusion that “this is not the week in which I’m likeliest to have my biggest edge.”

I want to pause there and zoom out for a moment to note that this is not to say that the edge is smaller in Week 1! I haven’t read answers from anyone else yet, beyond reading the very top of Xandamere’s answer where he said he tends to go heavier in Week 1. Xandamere’s strengths as a DFS player are different from mine, and the setup we have in Week 1 very much aligns with what he does best. It benefits each DFS player to identify and define what their own edge is — what their strengths are as a DFS player (or what the strengths are that they are developing) — as this allows for honest assessment of unique situations such as this.

With all that said, I also recognize A) that Week 1 used to be a banger of a week for me each year, and that B) my Week 1 prep has been hampered since OWS was launched by how busy August and early September are from a business/work standpoint. While others have MORE time to prepare for Week 1, I have had less time to prepare over the last five years.

This year, I carved out space to treat Week 1 the way I was able to from 2014 to 2017,  and while I don’t know the teams, players, and coaches as well as I will in Week 6, for example, I know them far better — from a “Week 1” perspective — than I did the last few years, and I know them far better than most of my competition does. This has me A) moving a bit closer to my typical “balance of strengths” in my approach than I would have felt comfortable with the last few years, and B) playing my normal weekly buy-in amount.

While the majority of that exploration is specific to my own strengths and weaknesses as a DFS player, I think there is value in “watching someone else” work through their thoughts in an area such as this, as it can help you (the reader) to do the same thing. What is your edge as a DFS player? What are you good at? What are you still working to improve? This can guide you in your decisions with regards to “How I want to approach Week 1.”

Xandamere >>

While my 2023 answer is still valid, I want to expand on the variance/chalk piece. I say this every year in some format, generally on a show somewhere, but I want to write it down as well: we know very, very little in Week 1. We THINK we know things, but as JM noted, there are players whose roles may be very different than we think they’re going to be. Offenses may feature players differently, they may be more pass or run heavy, and defense consistency from year to year is very low (i.e. defenses we think are attackable may be good, defenses we think are good may be attackable). We know very little! 

When the field is extremely confident but we don’t actually know things, that’s the time to embrace more variance. Recognize how little we actually know and play into spots where if the variance swings our way, it benefits us in big ways. Always remember “what do you win when you win?”

My 2023 answer::

I tend to go heavier in Week 1 because it’s a week where the edge is larger than normal. We have the most casual players (the players who will drain their bankrolls early in the year and then stop), we have a smattering of new DFS players in the ecosystem (even though DFS isn’t growing like it used to, there are still new players every year), and we have the most uncertainty around how teams will use their players and how good they will be (but the field sees perceived certainty in, say, games like MIA/LAC). All of that adds up to edge, and so I tend to go heavy in Week 1 to try and capture it.

I’m also more willing to embrace variance in Week 1. As the season goes on, chalk tends to become “better,” because we gain more knowledge about how teams operate. In Week 1, chalk tends to be more fragile because we’re operating off of a lot of assumptions, but assumptions are not the same as knowledge.

 

Mike >>

Bankroll – I do generally go a little higher in the amount I play Week 1 for a couple of reasons. First, I play more entries of the super large field stuff (Milly Makers on both sites and the large contest on Yahoo) this week than a normal week because overlay is likely, price points of those contests are lower, and such a large chunk of rosters are basically dead from being very inexperienced players and/or rosters made days/weeks in advance. Second, there is a ton of value in being early on players/teams and Week 1 provides the best chance to get paid off for having unique thoughts and seeing things for yourself – which I believe is a strength of mine.

Contest Selection – As noted above, I adjust slightly to leverage opportunities in the larger field contests.

Player Selection – I want to get in early on guys I think are going to pop and leverage teams who have different outlooks than the last time we saw them – as most people are in a “see it to believe it” mindsets even when they know situations are different.

Hilow >>

From a theoretical perspective regarding game plan development, I typically align with Mikey as far as bankroll management goes in Week 1. The amount of variance present early in the season lends itself well to my style of play in GPPs so I typically go a bit harder through the first month of play. But everybody’s gameplan generation is going to be different so we need to be honest with ourselves before we can devise an optimal plan of attack.

As far as contest selection goes, no massive changes for me early in the season outside of some shots in the early season specialty contests like the $100 Milly.

When considering players in the first month of play, I’m typically keeping an extra eye on game environments over the individual players themselves. Because we know so little in the early goings, I want to be able to minimize the things I need to get right in order to succeed.

The final note here is that we tend to think we know more about these teams entering the season that we actually do. There are so many changes during an NFL offseason – coaching turnover, personnel turnover, injuries, contract disputes, etc. It’s difficult to break the mental block of thinking we know more than we do about these teams, so I challenge everyone to ditch all the biases that were created over the previous six months and view Week 1 through the lens of a new, one-week situation.

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2. An Inefficient Market

The Question ::

“Vegas lines” are the basis for so many projections, predictions, and rankings in DFS. Every week, you can have a pretty good idea what the popular games/players are going to be and which games are most likely to score a lot of points by looking at the spreads and totals and doing a little digging. It is a critical part of the process in most weeks and those numbers can help you find value and a starting point for figuring out how games are likely to play out. 

That being said, those lines are – by far – the least efficient they are ever going to be in Week 1 of the NFL season. Every team has personnel and scheme changes from one season to the next, some bigger than others, and players are changing as well – getting older, recovering from injuries, sustaining injuries, training/practicing to improve. There are just so many variables that are extremely hard to account for heading into the season, which is part of what makes it unpredictable and fun. 

The interesting thing is that the field generally treats the lines in a very similar manner this week as they do for other weeks – with a great deal of certainty. Knowing those two things – 1) the lines are relatively inefficient and 2) the field will not treat them as such – leaves us with a huge opportunity. With that in mind, there are 12 games on this week’s main slate and a whopping SEVEN of them have totals under 44 points. We know the field will gravitate towards the higher total games, so there is great value in finding the “other” game that turns into a shootout. Of those – which one(s) stand out to you as potentially being very mispriced::

• NE @ CIN (40.5)
• MIN @ NYG (41.5)
• PIT @ ATL (42)
• CAR @ NO (41.5)
• LV @ LAC (40.5)
• DEN @ SEA (42)
• DAL @ CLE (42)

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

I am not an entrepreneur. I don’t think I’d be very good at it. I have plenty of thoughts, opinions, and ideas, but I’ve frequently pursued the paths available to me as they present themselves, to maximize the things that are important to me. To this point in my life, I’ve been fortunate that the pros have largely outweighed the cons but as I’ve gotten older, there’s something about entrepreneurs that give me inspiration. 

What I have always admired about entrepreneurs (other than the staunch commitment to betting on themselves) is how if you believe in something, create it, and succeed, the people in this world will mold around you. And when that happens, the game is redefined. It takes real courage to act differently, to push a boundary, and to establish a new thing, but if that new thing is valuable, the world will acquiesce to it. This is all counterintuitive – as humans, we are programmed to act similarly to one another. When we act differently, we’re often met with skepticism and the pessimists out there will chime in with the usual, “Why would you do that?” But then, when it works, some of the same people, and many new people, will praise you for what you’ve created or built that they now get to enjoy. It’s one of life’s paradoxes.

Week 1 Reminder

Many of us have played DFS for close to a decade (or more). The game today is much different than even three years ago. The landscape has changed, the websites have changed, the voices, and of course the actual athletes and coaches are new, too. The change is constant. It’s all too common to come into Week 1 and expect the same. Try not to be one of those people. We shouldn’t look to last season’s Week 1 optimal lineup for inspiration. We shouldn’t assume any lineup can’t win, is irrational, or doesn’t correlate enough or correlates too much. Don’t be reckless and stack the Patriots or anything, but build with belief. We all see this differently and that’s what amazes me. We should be empowered to redefine what a winning lineup looks like…now go do that this week!

Dolphins RB + Tyreek Hill + BTJ

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

What did you do to prepare for this year’s NFL season? Based on Discord chats I have been scrolling through, there are plenty of people who are “so excited” for the season because they “did more prep work than ever.” My ‘X’ (Twitter) feed is full of people displaying their ownership percentages for their 150 Best Ball teams. There are plenty of people who already know a lot about the player pool, organizational depth charts, and player rankings. For DFS purposes, these people know too much . . . 

Thinking, Fast and Slow

During the offseason, I took some time to read a book called Thinking, Fast and Slow where Daniel Kahneman calls into question our surety in making decisions. We are often overconfident based on extraneous or irrelevant information, especially during times when optimism prevails. Optimism is certainly the mood with which so many of us will be building lineups for Week 1, and I am guaranteeing that many of your competitors in DFS this week are feeling pretty confident in what they know.

If you have been spending a lot of time in the Best Ball streets, you are likely in a spot where you have a good handle on the player pool and the top players according to ADP. You definitely have “your guys” as well. Your “slow thinking” mind has taken the time to make some decisions about player ranks and you have more or less cemented those thoughts into your mind. They are now quite easy to rely on and trust. You have developed confidence in them. Those thoughts may be good, but they can also lead to this overconfidence, and in effect turn bad. These thoughts are bad when they affect subsequent decisions. 

Here’s an example. If you have been drafting Dak and Lamb and think DAL/CLE could produce some good offense this week, then how likely are you to roster any other combos in DAL? How do I roster players that are not the best options according to everything I have researched? Try switching your modes of thought. Our “fast thinking” mind can quickly recognize the big price differences between DAL players and immediately see Jake Ferguson costs less than Lamb. You can again turn back to the slow mind to recognize that CLE will be forced to pass if an expensive DAL is succeeding and maybe you roster Watson plus a pass catcher instead. Switching between these mindsets or “modes of thinking” can be beneficial to making good decisions and help us avoid times when we are overconfident. 

This weekly article explores how to do that well. Where are we overconfident to start this season, and how can we recognize the bias that blinds us from constructing winning rosters.

Early Season Bias

As a prerequisite, there are two things that should be considered:

1. What is your bankroll? This can be considered for the week, or the entire season. But, as a best practice, I’d recommend you cap your weekly exposure to 10% of your full-season bankroll. For example, if you’ve got $2,500 you’re willing to put into play over the course of the NFL season, I would shoot for $150 -$250 in play each week. Any more than that, and you are at risk of going broke or having your play change to a more cautious approach/style. Playing with fear, aka not to lose, is a detrimental mindset, and will likely hinder you from a winning lineup. 
2. What is your goal for the season? Are you playing for fun? Trying to grind out a profit? Trying to hit a big score or have a life-changing win? Being honest with yourself and setting a realistic goal should determine the types of contests you enter.

Now that the prereqs are out of the way, some background . . .

I want to start by saying that DFS is hard. So much so, that a vast majority of players, (probably around 80-90%), are lifetime losers. In order to combat the turnover of players going broke, sites like FanDuel and DraftKings dedicate large advertising budgets to continue to attract new players. One of their key marketing strategies is advertising the ability to turn $20 (or even $5 this week) into $1 million, with their weekly Milly Maker contests. However, in order to win a tournament like the Milly Maker, you have to beat a full city’s worth of entrants, hence why these types of tournaments are commonly referred to as “lottos”, as they are essentially like playing the lottery. For a point of reference, DraftKings flagship contest for Week 1, a $5 entry fee contest with $1M to first place will have over 950,000 rosters, if it fills. To put that in perspective, that would be just slightly smaller than the population of New Orleans, the 50th largest city in the US as of 2024!

With that in mind, why make it even more difficult for yourself to be a winning player by playing poorly structured contests? When sorted by prize pool, almost all of the larger field contests on DraftKings for Week 1 have very top heavy structures, which essentially means, it will take a top 0.1%, (not 1%, but 0.1%) finish to return a strong ROI on your entry fees. My advice is to avoid these types of contests. Below I’ll outline what you should be looking for and the tournaments to consider at different buy-in levels. 

So what should we look for when choosing a contest?

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Justin Jefferson + Jaylen Waddle

• Of the top-4 WRs on this slate, I expect Jefferson may be overlooked. The Vikings will be without TJ Hockenson and the Giants secondary is very beatable. 
• I love Tyreek Hill, but the disparity in price between him and Waddle seems excessive this week, and I’d expect with the loose pricing that Tyreek will be near the highest owned player on the slate. I don’t sweat ownership too much, but I think there’s a decent chance Waddle and Tyreek have equally good games rather than Tyreek smashing and Waddle fizzling.
• Putting those two points together, playing Jefferson and Waddle together is a great way to leverage things if the touchdowns go Waddle’s way instead of Tyreek’s and Jefferson ends up being the best play of the “stud” WRs. 

Jayden Daniels + Zach Ertz

• Daniels may be a popular option this week on Fanduel as he is lower priced and most people love playing rushing QBs. However, Terry McLaurin will likely be the main player that people pair with Daniels in this spot. Zach Ertz is a much harder click, and in a week where you can easily make “superstar” lineups, no one is going to feel comfortable clicking that name. He is a trusted player by his coach and QB, however, and if Daniels does throw two or three TDs, there is a good chance that Ertz is posting a very good game, especially for his price point.

Jameson Williams

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 1 Overview

The NFL season is upon us and the Week 1 afternoon slate has four games on the docket. Most people will focus only on the Main Slate, only turning their attention to the afternoon games once their main slate lineups are dust or just from boredom and excitement once the games get going. We can put ourselves in advantageous positions if we plan ahead for these smaller slates, an edge that can play out significantly over time.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

DFS Labs 1.5 MNF – Xandamere & Cheeseman

DFS Labs 1.4 DK – Papy & Cheeseman

SOLO SHIP – JM & SQUIRREL PATROL

Block Party – JM & Peter Overzet

SEARCHING FOR CEILING – HILOW & RICH HRIBAR

DFS Labs 1.3 DK – STATATL & Cheeseman

DFs Labs 1.2 FD – Mike & Maximus

DFS Labs 1.1 DK – Hilow & Cheeseman