OWS Fam!!!

This season, Larejo has been writing the Angles Email — but with this being Thanksgiving week, we have me (JM) on task here, for two main reasons:

1) I wanted to take a moment to express how grateful I am that I get to do this job, with this community. I’m grateful to all the awesome contributors who make OWS what it is. I’m grateful to all the partners we work with who help elevate us in so many ways. And I’m grateful to the OWS Fam — on-site, in Discord, and dominating the leaderboards — who are such a unique and special group of players/humans in this space. Football season is a grind; but the opportunity to “grind” alongside all of you makes this all worth it.

2) Each year at Thanksgiving, we like to express our gratitude to you with a handful of once-a-year deals on-site.

You can find all our discounts/codes on the Thanksgiving Special page (you’ll also find this link at the top of the home page, and throughout the site this week). But to summarize what we’re rolling out this week:

• 50% off all DFS Education courses!
  • An annual tradition, you can take 50% off all DFS Education courses with code BLACKFRIDAY24
  • (I know many of you wait until this week each year to purchases courses. The window is now open!)
• Rest-of-season Inner Circle access for only $49(!)
  • If you’re an OWS lurker and have not yet taken the plunge, you can take over 78% off the price of Inner Circle (with 45% of the season — playoff DFS included — still remaining!). Use code BLACKFRIDAYIC
• Rest-of-season Bink Machine access for only $39(!)
  • Again: we have 45% of the season remaining. You can get rest-of-season Bink Machine access for 26% of the start-of-season price.
  • If you want to bundle rest-of-season Inner Circle and Bink Machine access, you can also grab All Access for $78 (79% off the start-of-season price!), using code BLACKFRIDAYAA
• Finally, we have a special BLACKFRIDAYPROPS code that allows you to get a week of access to Props Insider (typically $35) for only $5!!!

Get in there, and get some discounts!

Week 13 Schedule // Notes

We’ll have you covered for the Thanksgiving slate (as always) with NFL Edge writeups and a special Thanksgiving Scroll (one of the best Scrolls of the year, in my opinion!).

The NFL Edge for the Main Slate will be mostly published on Friday this week, while expectations for content in The Scroll will be “roughly normal schedule.” (Obviously, there’s some room for delays, given that Thursday is both work and — more importantly — family for the OWS team; but we usually see The Scroll for the Main Slate go off with its normal rhythm.)

Per usual, there will be no NFL Edge audio this week. (NFL Edge audio will return next week.)

There will also be no Solo Ship podcast this week (Squirrel Patrol is traveling), but Searching For Ceiling, the Block Party, the Angles Pod, and The Slate are all scheduled as normal.

I believe that’s everything.

And now, let’s take an early look at the Thanksgiving Slate.

Angles :: Thanksgiving

Let’s take a few trips down memory lane.

Thanksgiving Day, 2018. The 7-3 Bears were playing the 4-6 Lions. Teams had a hard time running against the Bears, and had found it nearly impossible to score touchdowns on the ground against Chicago. The Lions were also underdogs, which made LeGarrette Blount look wildly unattractive. Blount proceeded to rush for 88 yards and score two touchdowns — on a slate that saw no Bears running back top 15 yards, no Falcons running back top six yards, and Adrian Peterson rush for 35 yards. In the night game, Alvin Kamara rushed for 89 yards, but caught only one pass and didn’t score a touchdown. On a slate with Tevin Coleman (and no Devonta Freeman!), Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara, Zeke was the top producer at the position, and Blount was far and away the second best raw producer on the slate. If you didn’t have him, you had an uphill battle to tourney wins.

Thanksgiving Day, 2020. The Thursday night game was postponed due to Covid, leaving us with a two-game slate. The Texans beat the Lions 41-25, with a semi-popular Will Fuller going 6-171-2 and becoming a piece you had to have in order to win. But more importantly, in the second game on the slate — Washington at Dallas — Ezekiel Elliott was mega chalk, while the Washington side of the game went overlooked. The game played out differently than expected, with the Washington defense dominating, and with Antonio Gibson scoring three touchdowns at low ownership in a 41-16 Washington romp. If you weren’t building with a different approach than the field, you weren’t winning tourneys.

Thanksgiving Day, 2023. The Lions were 8-2, while the Packers — with an erratic and inconsistent quarterback in Jordan Love — were 4-6. All the attention in DFS was on the Lions’ side, where we ended up with no skill position player cracking 19 DK points, and only one skill position player cracking 15 DK points. Meanwhile, an overlooked Jordan Love threw for 268 yards and three scores, while connecting with an overlooked Christian Watson for 5-94-1. This was the first game of the day, and if you built through the Lions — as many did — you were out of the running for a tourney win before the day had really even started.

And listen: this is not an exhaustive list of “unexpected things that have happened on Thanksgiving slates.” This is just three specific instances that I still remember off the top of my head.

I remember where I was in 2018 when Blount scored his second touchdown after I had spent the whole week talking about what an awful matchup he had.

I remember where I was in 2020 when I made the decision to build my Game Changer roster through Antonio Gibson and the Washington defense, and I remember where I was when Gibson scored his third touchdown and gave me a clear pathway to a win.

And I remember where I was when the Lions fell behind in 2023 and I told my dad, “Watch, the Lions will come back. This is a different Lions team this year.” I had built my rosters through Detroit, and I suffered as a result.

In my DFS Interpretations for this week, I spent some time looking at the matchups for this week’s Thanksgiving games, and I spent some time exploring the highest-confidence bets on the slate.

But I also spent some time looking through some alternate ways things could play out on this slate — because really, that’s what is most important.

On a three-game slate, ownership becomes that much more concentrated.

On a three-game slate, it also becomes that much more valuable when something goes differently than expected. On a 13-game slate, if something goes differently than expected, it might not really matter. Who cares if 2018 LeGarrette Blount puts up 22 DK points on the Main Slate? — you don’t have to hit that, because plenty of other (more popular) running backs will put up a similar score. Maybe some people save salary on Blount in that situation, but they don’t gain a serious, significant edge.

But on a three-game slate, that 22-pointer from Blount might separate.

On a three-game slate, that 20-pointer from Christian Watson might separate.

On a small slate, the little things matter so much more.

So yes — think about what’s likeliest to happen on this slate.

But more than any other “main slate” on the year: also look at ownership. Think about where the field is expressing certainty. And think about how you might be able to build for a scenario in which they might be wrong.

Do that — and some of you will absolutely be at the top of the leaderboards on Thursday night.

I’ll see you there!

-JM

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

Pro Tip: For optimal viewing, use the “download” button

Learn how to Use The Workbook

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

As we’ve talked about in the past on the Thanksgiving slate, this slate is unlike any other. We get more information as each game is played, able to compare our rosters to optimal at each new decision point. As such, the general roster construction technique I preach that is likely to generate the most meaningful boost to expected value is to only build for the first game, after which we take in the new information, assess where our rosters stand, and adjust for game number two. We’ll get into micro leverage stances and how I expect the field to build below, but the single most +EV thing you can do on this slate is to build through the lens of the first game only.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece. For the Thanksgiving slate, we’re going to massage our threshold to classify a play as ownership with there being only three games, with the new benchmark being 40%.

RICO DOWDLE

Rico Dowdle took over a true lead back role in Week 9, playing snap rates of 71%, 52%, 49%, and 61% in the team’s last four games. Even so, Dowdle has just five games with even double digit DraftKings points this season, including just one game over 20 DK points. If the field wants to make him the highest-owned running back on the slate, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere.

KEENAN ALLEN

Keenan Allen actually leads the team in most underlying metrics against man coverage this season, also leading the team in targets since Thomas Brown took over the offense as the interim offensive coordinator (23 for Allen, 20 for Odunze, 14 for Moore, and 13 for Kmet). I have no issue calling him a solid on-paper play against the pass-funnel Lions on Thursday.

CEEDEE LAMB

CeeDee Lamb surprisingly has just two games with more than 20 DK points this season, peaking at 18.6 DK points with backup quarterback Cooper Rush during the most recent three-game stretch. At the same time, the alpha wide receiver has seen double-digit targets in six consecutive games. And then on the other hand, Lamb’s aDOT with Rush has fallen all the way to 5.7, making it very difficult for him to put up a score you could not win without.

JOSH JACOBS

After scoring just once in his first six games, Josh Jacobs has now found paint seven times in his previous five games. Even so, he is averaging just 2.72 targets per game this season, leaving him as a “yardage and touchdown plus” back this season. In other words, the floor is much lower than the field is giving credit for considering he has gone over 100 yards just three times this season while scoring multiple touchdowns just twice, twice doing so in the same game. Not many will realize he played his second lowest snap rate of the season in his three-touchdown game a week ago.

JAHMYR GIBBS

While head coach Dan Campbell reportedly “feels good” about David Montgomery’s chances of playing on a short week after injuring his shoulder in Week 12, there is the potential for his workload to be held in check. For that reason, I currently have Jahmyr Gibbs as the top running back play on the slate.

CHALK BUILD::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

---

The format:

My “Player Grid” for the Thanksgiving slate will take the format of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid just didn’t feel like the right way to try to break down this slate with only three games on it and such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see every Sunday with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat on Thanksgiving is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

QB Strategy ::

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

---

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Thanksgiving Topics

1. Contest Selection and Bankroll

2. Late Swap and Adjustments

3. Getting Unique

4. Value Plays

---

1. Contest Selection and Bankroll

The Question ::

NFL DFS on Thanksgiving can be a wild ride and extremely fun. Especially since the NFL moved a few years ago to having three games on the day, it’s pretty much a full day of football and fun. The tricky thing about this is that it is such a unique slate and many of us have a lot of other commitments on this day. It is easy to be tempted by an extra day of football at this point in the season, especially with the monster contests that the sites offer, but the nature of the slate is so unique that there is a tight line to balance of playing too much and overextending the bankroll.

Considering the nature of the day, size of the contests, and small number of games – do you have a preferred approach from a contest selection (size, price, and format) and/or bankroll approach?

The Answers ::

JM >>

I LOVE this question; it’s one I would not have thought to ask, but it’s one I have consciously been making decisions around this week.

Because my family is always traveling at Thanksgiving AND we have two “main slates” this week from a content perspective, I typically head into Wednesday evening thinking I won’t be playing this slate…and then, by Wednesday night, I find myself thinking, “Well, I’ve put in all this work on this slate; let’s see if I can find some rosters that give me an edge.”

Of course, at this point, I’ve followed this pattern enough times (and had enough big days on the Thanksgiving slate), that I’m now aware of the fact that I am probably playing this slate. With that said, I will allow “my feel for the slate” to dictate my approach.

My typical approach on this day is to play one roster in the $1500 Game Changer, and to otherwise leave the slate alone. To be clear, this is not a “prescription” — it’s just sort of been my tradition; and given that it’s a busy week on my end with content/work/family/travel, it makes sense for me to target a one-roster strategy.

I’ll also note that I’ve had at least one or two times in the last few years when I haven’t had enough time to play just one roster, and have instead gone three-max. This echoes the sentiment of the old quote attributed (I believe) to Mark Twain that goes something like, “I would have written you a shorter letter, but I didn’t have enough time.” Basically: yes, with less time available on a slate, I don’t want to get into the weeds with MME; but also, it takes MORE time to feel great about the expected value of a one-lineup approach than it takes to feel great about the expected value of a three- or even five-lineup approach.

I’m answering these questions on a plane from Denver to Tulsa on Tuesday, and tonight I’ll be recording the Winner Circle podcast, then tomorrow I’ll work all day on the NFL Edge for the Main Slate (in order to not miss too much time on Thanksgiving day with work, while still getting my writeups out there as early as possible for readers; my Friday doesn’t change on Thanksgiving week, which means my Edge writeups still have to be done by the end of the day on Thanksgiving day). This means I won’t know until late Wednesday night what I plan to do — whether I choose not to play (which would be a surprise), or choose to play three-max, or choose to put just one roster in play.

While this answer of mine doesn’t speak much to the strategy around this slate and “what you should do with your bankroll to account for what this slate provides,” it does speak to what many of us deal with this week :: “The Thanksgiving slate is fun to play; but also, there is real life going on this week that should ultimately dictate our own approach to this slate.” Get a feel for what you can do this week — and don’t do more than that.

Xandamere >>

I personally always set aside time on Thanksgiving for DFS (sometimes to my wife’s dismay) – to Mike’s point, a lot of people are playing very casually on this slate, they might set a lineup but they won’t check in throughout the day and late swap, and so to me this is one of the highest edge slates of the season. That doesn’t mean you’ll always be profitable on it, of course, as sharp rosters flop all the time…but the EV is there. 

Normally on a short slate, I don’t enter as much volume as I would on a main slate, but Thanksgiving is the exception to me here. Personally I treat it like a regular main slate and try to get around my normal full slate buy-ins, because I feel like the edge is great and I want to hammer it. That approach may not work for you, though! If you go this route, make sure you have the appropriate amount of time to dedicate to DFS, both in prep before the slate and then being able to watch the slate as it progresses – one of the biggest advantages of Thanksgiving DFS is how the games are spread out, which allows you to assess where you are and react by swapping, and if you aren’t able to utilize this edge, I would recommend either not playing or just playing a modest amount for fun.

TL;DR – only enter as many rosters as you feel you can effectively watch and swap if needed. 

Hilow >>

First off, consider this – Thanksgiving weekend is the most viewed weekend of football outside of the Super Bowl. Now relate that to DFS – size of contests, skill of the average entry in contests, familial obligations, shortened week, time to prepare, etc. The edge is tangible this holiday weekend. That said, we should really be viewing this slate as another data point to amplify out expected value. As in, if you are a losing player, more volume simply means your money will bleed faster with an additional data point. But we here at OWS can use the additional data point to realize our equity sooner. All of that to say – nothing really changes for me outside of a few additional Milly Maker entries. Play your game and realize your equity faster!

For me, one of my greatest edges is my ability to see beyond the projections (ownership and otherwise) to be able to identify what the field is likeliest to see out of a slate. That edge is amplified on a short slate (although I haven’t quite perfected how to harness it for showdown slates just yet), meaning I’ll be looking to attack this weekend with little remorse.

Mike >>

There is a ton of edge on this slate, but it can also be super hard to realize that edge in a huge way because of the likelihood of duplicate lineups and soft pricing. I like to play a few higher $ entries in smaller fields as those present more realistic paths to a big score, but also like to build a lot of different lineups in MME-style contests as there are a lot of fun, creative ways to give yourself a sweat going into the last game and the uniqueness of the ability to late swap and exploit variable change (explored in the next question) makes this slate one of a kind in a lot of ways. For this week, I’ll be using the Bink Machine to mass enter the Milly Maker on Draftkings and hand build for a couple of the higher dollar single entry tournaments. On Fanduel, I will play three or four entries in the $55 “Gravy Bomb” and then again use the Bink Machine to mass enter the big $3 tournament, the “Roasted Rush”.

---

2. Late Swap and Adjustments

The Question ::

One of the most +EV things that is available to us on any DFS slate is the ability to late swap. The fact of the matter is that extra information is available to us after each game completes and we can use the information from the game’s results as well as ownership to help us make the best decisions going forward. As a bonus, a very small percentage of our competition actually uses this option. While we don’t always have to make the swap, at least looking at it and considering it can help us in all types of contests. The extra unique thing about this slate is that there is usually 30 minutes to an hour between each game ending and the next one starting, giving us actual time to have the complete information and a bit of time to dissect how we want to use that information – this is very different from a usual Sunday NFL DFS slate where most games are still going on when the second wave of game kickoff.

With all of that in mind, do you have any specific strategies you use prior to or during the Thanksgiving slate in regards to late swap?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Overview

Thanksgiving offers us a slate with a high number of casual players, who will build lineups and not give a second thought to changing them after the first game locks. The scheduling of the games also provides us a unique opportunity unlike almost every other slate this season, where we can “build the plane as we fly”. This will be further discussed in the strategy section, but as more information becomes available as the games unfold, we can modify our heading or direction (see what I did there) on where each roster needs to go.  

Strategy

From a 10,000-foot view, my overall strategy is to submit several duplicates of each roster I put in play. For example, if playing a 150-max, I would build either 25 or 30 rosters and duplicate them 5-6 times each. In general, my focus is on the early game; On some rosters building stacks around Caleb Williams or Goff, on others maybe just one mini-correlation, and finally some with only one piece from the game. The objective here is to nail the nuts, or close to it, after the first game, and adjust as more information becomes available throughout the day. You should have a good sense of where your rosters stand after the first game ends, with 30 minutes in between games to adjust accordingly. The hope is to get at least one of your builds to potentially have the right pieces from the first game and give yourself 5-6 opportunities to build differently from there to maximize sweat potential. If you take multiple different approaches to the first game as outlined above, you likely will have several rosters (and their clones) with potential going into the afternoon and evening games.

You may ask, that makes sense for 150, but what would that look like if only building 20 rosters? My suggestion would be to rank the QBs/game environments and pick your top 2 to build around. With 20 lineups, I would suggest 4 (or 5) “base” rosters and duplicate/clone them 4-5 times considering the same principles mentioned above. You will likely feel like there are so many more angles to cover but try to avoid FOMO. You must keep in mind that the likeliest outcome for this slate, and all slates, is that you will lose, so play fearlessly!

From an overall strategy standpoint, I think every initial build should have at least three spots reserved for players in the late game with a minimum of $18,000 in salary. Miami and Green Bay both have potent offenses (only behind Detroit on this slate), with Miami scoring at least 20 in every healthy game from Tua this season, while Green Bay has scored at least 20 in 8 of 9 games that Love has started. On paper, this game sets up as the best overall environment with a close spread and a high game total, and I’d want to ensure some flexibility on how to close out any rosters in contention going into the final game.

Finally, if you are traditionally a single entry or 3-max player, my suggestion is to consider playing more lineups than usual. However from a bankroll management perspective, this does not necessarily mean allocating more funds this week. We want to give ourselves the most chances to leverage the advantage late swap provides on this unique slate, and DK has given us many options across the micro, low and mid-stakes to consider.

Lets dive in

What we can do on a three game slate is truly treat each like a showdown, to get inside the macro and micro factors for each game. There are some more general points to make, but the fun part (in my humble, sicko opinion) is to dive into each game and do so quickly to get the proverbial lay of the land and identify where we can build differently without sacrificing upside. As always, you know we’re hunting for the rational and illogical combinations to build lineups that don’t make sense the first time around, but in hindsight, fit together like a perfect puzzle.

It’s practically tradition by now to treat the three-game slate for what it is: a slate the OWS community crushes every season. In my opinion, for one full day, filled with family gatherings, good football, and late swap, three games is the perfect amount. We don’t get overwhelmed by information since we only have two(ish) days to plan for it, and we don’t get overburdened by the actual football since there is only one game on at a time. Thanksgiving football is something the NFL has simply gotten right. Sometimes it’s best to give credit where credit is due and let the NFL know it’s not broken, and in fact, it’s glorious.

For anyone who has read my writing the past few seasons, I love to lay out the player pool on Thanksgiving. Most of you will skim right through this (as I hope you’ve already done this in your mind) or above this on The Scroll before you get here. It should be intentional either way, but I don’t want to let any player slip through the cracks so let’s run through the entire list of viable plays:

Thanksgiving Leverage Thoughts

We already know that touchdowns are a big(ger) deal on Fanduel, but on a small slate like this, there are even fewer touchdowns to go around, making getting access to as many of them as possible even more important. If you add the “Team Total TDs” line for the six teams on the slate, you can see that Vegas expectations put the overall line for TDs for the day at roughly 15. Considering we routinely have 50 to 70 touchdowns on a main slate, you can see how important it becomes in this context. With that in mind, let’s see if we can find some high leverage approaches to the slate. Please keep in mind that this article does not intend for you to try to play all of these approaches on one roster. One or two unique aspects to your roster are usually plenty to differentiate you if done correctly.

Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery