Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

The Scroll Super Bowl

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    Willing To Lose

    One game. A game we’ve been thinking about for two weeks. A game that many of us will say we have a feel for how it will play out. And yet one game, with its finite fantasy options can still play out in nearly an infinite amount of ways. Football fascinates me in this way. You can slice it, dice it, analyze and predict it all you want, and you are bound to be wrong a majority of the time. You’ll hit hot streaks in betting and fantasy markets, but eventually, you’ll revert to the mean, because Vegas is always right in the long run. I don’t care how well you know the NFL, predicting its outcomes will humble all of us. And even with how depressing this can be, how cool is it to have one game, 60 minutes with this much money at stake in the DFS world?! Pretty amazing.

    I’ve never written a Willing to Lose around just one game. So this will be a different approach. Depending on your site of preference, most contests will feature a captain player, and scale down to the rest of the lineup from there. With only so many options, it’s hard to go truly off the board so we’ll dive into a few low-likelihood outcomes with the intent of pulling out a solo win below. I bring this up to lay the foundation of thinking about your style of play before reading below. My hope is by deploying any of the strategies below you won’t chop first place. Instead, you’ll either finish near the top of a tournament or you’ll be way out of the money (and if it’s first place, apologies in advance if I’m the one there with you screwing that up).

    I like the Rams in this game. I believe the Bengals can and will cover the spread, but I think it’s very likely the Rams win. It’s Sean McVay’s second Super Bowl, he’s experienced here, as is his coaching staff, and I think the moment will prove just slightly too bright for the Bengals. This is just the beginning of the story that my DFS rosters will tell on Sunday. It’s also just one of a million stories we can tell. Lay it out, visualize the game script, who scores first, who responds, how do they do it, and go from there. Any story well told can have a great ending.

    Captain Vanchi Jefferson Jr.

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