Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

Welcome to Week 17! Even though Monday night football just wrapped up, we’re turning the page to Week 17 as the NFL continues to push aside the NBA for attention on Christmas Day. With a unique schedule coming up, and working around a holiday, this Angles email will flow a bit different than typical in order to get you best prepared for the week ahead.

We discuss all the time on this site how we’re in constant pursuit of any edge we can find, and this week we’re looking to move on to Week 17 faster than our competition to find unique angles to exploit and ways to position ourselves for first place finishes.

There’s still plenty of football left…

The regular season is winding down, but they still play ball deep into January in the playoffs, and if you are not an Inner Circle member yet, you can now get in for $29 with promo code “IC200” through the Super Bowl. Inner Circle has literally never been cheaper. Check it out risk-free, and as always, if you don’t like what you’re getting, we’re happy to give your money back.

OWS :: What to expect this week

It might look and feel like a Thanksgiving week, but we’ll be treating it differently than back in Week 13. The main difference you’ll feel this week is there will be a “mini Scroll” for Thursday, specific to the Christmas games. This will include StatATL slate strategy, ownership projections, and more (in addition to the NFL Edge game writeups). We’re getting this to you as fast as possible to ensure you can get a start on building lineups before the holiday kicks into gear.

We’ll reload for Saturday’s two-gamer with another short-slate special (possibly the Deuce?!), along with ownership projections. Then, throughout the day on Saturday, you’ll see The Scroll roll in for Sunday’s Week 17 main slate. A lot to get through, a lot of football ahead, and so much goodness on the site coming your way.

Christmas slate

Well, I hope you enjoyed some offense last night with the 49ers // Colts, because the Christmas games could be a bit light in that area. At least three backup QBs (Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer, Chris Oladokun) and five of the six teams playing either eliminated from playoff contention or trending in that direction. That said, it’s the NFL. Anything can happen, and despite the large spreads in these games, any of the Cowboys // Commanders, Lions // Vikings, or Broncos // Chiefs can hit an unexpected path.

On slates like this one that are so seemingly obvious (i.e., this quarterback is good, this one stinks, this defense is good, this unit not so much…), there is so much groupthink to take advantage of. People will mostly not be overanalyzing this slate too far, especially while swimming in batteries and instruction manuals (like I will be on Christmas morning), so that second- or third-level thinking will be quite uncommon. Challenge yourself to take at least one of these games and flip it upside down, then build from there and see what happens.

Week 17 :: Do less, better

Here’s the reality: two games left in the regular season for every team. Roughly 18 or 19 teams still have something to play for. As we saw in Week 16, there will start to be a visible discrepancy between how some teams get off the bus going forward. But that doesn’t mean the teams with nothing to play for will stop caring (see Bengals). There’s only so much tape these players can build, and the NFL career can be a short one for players and coaches, so even with a 17-game season, there’s still always limited snaps and plays to make an impact.

How you spend your time this week, however, is the key to unlocking this week. It goes without saying that it’s a great week to spend time with loved ones, family, friends, and more, and you don’t need me to tell you that prioritizing DFS is likely not your best choice. However, if there’s one thing we’re proudest of as OWS members, it’s our ability to think better than our competition. In doing so, we hopefully have helped you craft your process and strategy over many seasons to the point that time, even if limited, does not become a huge impediment to building winning lineups.

Use that to your advantage this week. Don’t try to read every word on OWS and listen to every podcast. Instead, develop your own thoughts on each game for the slate(s) you prioritize. Then find the voices that resonate with you on the site (which is the usual approach for so many, anyway) and generate the strategy that works for you.

Cliche as it may be, it’s not about working harder this week; it’s about working smarter. Find your lane this week and prepare yourself in the right way. Sometimes we find success when we research more and put in more time than any other slate. Sometimes it’s the opposite, because we did less, better. Let’s do the latter this week.

Enjoy your Christmas and holiday season, OWS!!! Thanks for letting me be a voice in your inboxes each week this season. I can’t wait for you all to have a profitable Week 17.

~Larejo

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

• The Format ::
  • My “Player Grid” for the Christmas slate will take the format of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid just didn’t feel like the right way to try to break down this slate with only three games on it and such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see every Sunday with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat on Christmas is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Cowboys – The season is dead for the Cowboys, but the pride of Jerry Jones is very much alive. Dallas has a path to an 8-8-1 record and avoiding a “losing” record would likely provide some sort of solace to many involved in the organization. Dallas also does not own their top draft picks for next year’s draft, so there is no motive from that angle to give anything but their best down the stretch. This is a spot where they could really let it loose and attack a bad Washington pass defense with their elite passing game options.
• Commanders – Washington wants to run a balanced offense and lean on their running game and mobile backup quarterback Josh Johnson. Their recipe has been a conservative one that tries to keep them competitive deep into games, which means they are likely to run the ball at a high rate on early downs or have quick passing game concepts that get the ball out on first reads. Their running game should be high volume, but spread out among several players. Their passing game should be low volume, but relatively condensed with most targets going to the wide receivers. Dallas is most vulnerable through the air, which is the route Washington is least likely to want to attack through.
• Detroit – The Lions are mathematically still alive and will be full steam ahead regardless as that is the approach their head coach and culture embodies. Detroit lost to the Vikings earlier this season and are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has gotten the best of Jared Goff quite often in recent contests, but Minnesota can be susceptible on the ground as well. Detroit can only control what they can control, and right now that means winning this game or being eliminated from the playoffs.
• Minnesota – The Vikings will have undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer starting in this game after losing J.J. McCarthy to a hand injury. They are also likely to be without running back Jordan Mason and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Brosmer had a game to forget in his only start in Seattle, but the Lions defense is far less complex than what Seattle does and this is a spot where Brosmer could have a lot more success. He also didn’t do much last week against the Giants, but that had more to do with game script and the Giants offense posing no real threat. This is the best situation Brosmer has played in, although it is far from a pushover.
• Denver – The Broncos are the current top seed in the AFC, but are only a game ahead of the Chargers for the division lead and play them in Week 18. If Denver wins this game and the Chargers lose to the Texans on Sunday, Denver would clinch the AFC West. Denver has been one of the more aggressive passing offenses in the league in recent weeks and the Chiefs defense is struggling with efficiency and couldn’t handle being on the field so often last week due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives. This could be a “run it up” spot for head coach Sean Payton, who is no stranger to keeping his foot on the gas.
• Kansas City – The Chiefs are down their top two quarterbacks and are likely to have Chris Oladokun under center in this one. Week 16 exposed just how many flaws this team has that Patrick Mahomes was covering up as Kansas City was beaten handily by the downtrodden Titans. This week they face a Broncos defense that has shown itself to be susceptible against talented and well-schemed offenses, but has absolutely dominated the weaker teams they’ve faced. No Mahomes. No Rashee Rice. Very difficult matchup. Not much to get excited about here.

QB Strategy ::

• Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
  • Dak Prescott is the top play on the slate by a wide margin, but everyone will know that. He should have a decent amount of ownership and the stacks are relatively straightforward. One dynamic to keep in mind is that if you try to double stack Dak with BOTH of his primary wide receivers it is incredibly restrictive in how you can build the rest of your lineup. It basically means that you can’t afford either of ARSB or Gibbs from the Lions, and that trio’s combinatorial ownership will be somewhat high which means there are only so many ways to fill the other spots on your roster. That doesn’t mean we can’t do it, just that we need to be creative in the way we fill out the rest of the spots. 
  • The more popular way to stack Dak will likely be with one of Lamb OR Pickens, and then one or both of Jake Ferguson or Javonte Williams. I think involving Malik Davis is a super sharp way to build heavily around the Cowboys. His role is growing, he is explosive, and there is also a scenario where the Cowboys are rolling through Dak early and often, and Davis gets a bunch of work late. He is cheap, which helps you get more premium players from other spots on your roster, and will be very low owned. I think in large field tournaments he is one of the sharper plays on the slate, particularly as a part of Dak stacks.
  • Bo Nix is in an interesting spot this week as the Broncos are unlikely to be showing grace to the Chiefs if they get the chance. There is a chance for very high play volume as the Chiefs may have a lot of three and outs that keep Denver on the field a lot. Nix has been at the center of the team’s offense recently and his pass catchers are much cheaper than Dak’s, while also likely to be lower owned. 
  • Jared Goff is probably my next favorite option and the emergence of rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa (40+ snaps in four straight games) and the cheap tight ends (Zylstra and Firkser saw 5 and 4 targets, respectively, last week) on a slate where the position is extremely thin, give us some creative ways to put his stacks together. Those things probably aren’t necessary in smaller field tournaments, but in large field stuff something like a Goff double with ARSB and TeSlaa could be intriguing…..or something like Gibbs + TeSlaa on a roster built around another team.
  • Max Brosmer is in the spot he is most likely to give us fantasy production in so far in his career. The Seahawks game was a nearly impossible spot and the Giants played incredibly conservatively, which let him stay in his shell. He has the weapons, and they are cheap, to be on the winning rosters at the end of the day Thursday. In KOC we trust.
  • Josh Johnson and Chris Oladokun are simply cheap options who you could swap onto a roster to save salary at QB and hope their mobility and the way the slate plays out makes it so that one of them scores upwards of 20, but none of the top QB options gets over 25, and therefore makes the salary savings valuable and gives you a unique build. Neither seems likely to be successful, however.

My guess on final ownership::

• Dak Prescott and Bo Nix – 22 to 30%
• Jared Goff and Josh Johnson – 12 to 18%
• Max Brosmer – 8 to 12%
• Chris Oladokun – Sub-5%

Defense Strategy ::

• There are three teams starting backup quarterbacks who seem highly likely to make mistakes and be in negative game scripts on this slate. The Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys defenses are all in spots that stand out – in that order. Of the three, the Cowboys are the least talented and are facing the veteran in Josh Johnson and a team that will run at a very high rate, which makes them the defense that is least likely to put up a really big score. Denver and Detroit are by far my favorite options on the slate.
• The Vikings present an interesting game theory angle on a small slate. We know they are aggressive and will blitz at a high rate. Jared Goff has not looked great as of late, and we know the Lions can and will open things up and throw at a very high rate if they fall behind. It isn’t outlandish to think that they could force some early mistakes and maybe sneak in a defensive touchdown that forces Goff to throw 40+ times again. From that lens, Minnesota’s defense on Goff rosters is an angle that interests me, specifically for large field tournaments.
• The Chiefs are still a very well coached team and in theory pride should kick in for a primetime game on national TV on a holiday. They are only $2,200 and, frankly, we’ve seen the bad version of Bo Nix make some big mistakes at times throughout his career. Saving the money could pay off in a variety of ways and provides leverage on the likely highest owned D/ST and the second highest owned QB. This is a spot, due to the weather and nature of the teams, where I wouldn’t be taking the approach I mentioned for the Vikings. If the Chiefs defense is being successful and we are pleased with their output, I expect it is because the game environment is low scoring and ugly – so I’m definitely NOT playing the Chiefs with Nix stacks.

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership – these are also specific to DraftKings)

RB ::

1. Jahmyr Gibbs
2. RJ Harvey
3. Aaron Jones
4. Javonte Williams
5. Isiah Pacheco

WR ::

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown
3. George Pickens
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Jameson Williams
6. Courtland Sutton
7. Jordan Addison
8. Troy Franklin
9. Terry McLaurin
10. Xavier Worthy

TE ::

1. Jake Ferguson
2. Josh Oliver
3. Travis Kelce
4. Evan Engram

Game-by-Game For This Slate ::

Be sure to check the NFL Edge game breakdowns I wrote for this slate for deeper dives into these games and be sure to check out the great breakdown of the entire dynamic of the slate from JM in his Journal.

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheap options that I’ll be considering in larger fields on the Thanksgiving slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you probably wouldn’t consider using on a Main Slate::
  • Malik Davis
  • Treylon Burks
  • Lil’Jordan Humphrey
  • David Montgomery
  • Isaac TeSlaa
  • Anthony Firkser

Good luck and Happy Holidays – let’s get it!!!

-Mike

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

The Christmas Day slate provides us with a unique opportunity to leverage our understanding of both game theory and roster construction with the objective of reaching the summit of a GPP leaderboard. The slate sets up just like Thanksgiving Day, with staggered starts woven in between time spent with family. Luckily, for the OWS community, the same strategy and theory we utilize week in and week out is even easier to execute on a short slate . . . the balancing act between DFS and family obligations, I’ll leave up to you! With that in mind, let’s highlight a few key concepts and misnomers:

• On a small slate like this, one of the biggest mistakes our competition will make in terms of roster construction will be thinking about certainty or safety (what’s the most likely to happen) and building around that. It’s essential to realize that if you construct your entire roster with what is most likely to happen in all three games, you will be highly duped and won’t win much even if your lineup finishes first.

• Additionally, we need to evaluate what each lineup is betting on. For example, let’s look at the Cowboys vs Commanders game since Vegas (and a majority of the field) thinks THE MOST LIKELY outcome is a high-scoring affair as it carries an over/under of 51, the highest of the three Xmas Day games by almost a full touchdown. If Dallas/WAS plays out as a 35-31 game, where eight or nine offensive TDs are scored, a Prescott stack will likely be optimal due to the soft pricing. So, if you are making lineups without Dak at QB, be mindful of what this game playing out differently would mean as you construct the rest of your roster. 

• Finally, keep in mind that you don’t have to be different everywhere – some highly owned players will end up in the optimal. 

Slate Overview

What I like best about this year’s slate is that the most dynamic game is first. While this game will likely be the most owned game due to its perceived “fantasy goodness,” it has many tributaries on how it can play out on a one-game sample size. Players who are willing to embrace some uncertainty and leverage a late swap will likely be at a competitive advantage. In previous years, and like on Thanksgiving, we’ve discussed the top outputs from each of the six teams in terms of their points scored. Why is that important? Since there are only three games, capturing the players who put up 20+ point scores is going to be as critical as ever, as there may only be a few of them on the entire slate. As always, we are not just picking players we like, but are constructing a roster that works together. With that in mind, below are some key skill position players from each team, with their top scores thus far this season. This is a good measuring stick of who is capable of a had-to-have-it score. For reference on how important capturing a 20-point score is, there are only 13 skill position players (excluding QBs) across all six teams that have at least TWO games all season eclipsing the 20-point ceiling:

*Note – Max Brosmer (MIN), Chris Oladokun (KC), and Josh Johnson (WAS) have one combined start this year. 

Key Spots to Exploit

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 12/23/2025)

Overview 

• Six-player snake draft comprised of ten rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of five players: 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• Advancement rates vary by contest:
  • The Gauntlet: four-round structure through the Super Bowl, with the top team advancing out of a group of six in the first round, followed by one team advancing out of a group of six in the second round, and then one out of a group of five in the third round. The finals are composed of 500 teams in the Super Bowl with $500,000 up top. 
  • The Mitten’s advancement is easier in round one (top two of six advance), but then more difficult in the second round (1 of 10) and the conference championships round (also 1 of 10), before a 375-team Super Bowl.

• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting four or more players from bye teams (as of this writing, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos) in a 1 of 6 advance structure like The Gauntlet.
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

• The last two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl, but drafting several of those players also hampers your chances of getting out of the first round. 

• To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs; however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on Wild Card teams, and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.
• If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players, and you are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top-heavy, and the two one-seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300ish teams.

Roster Composition

Stacking is critical as you want to try to set yourself up to build around multiple teams (ideally 3-4 total) with at least one team from each conference. You also want to keep in mind the story you are telling with your build. If your roster is built around two #2 seeds (aka two non-bye teams) making the Super Bowl, you’ll want to keep in mind that if that happens, there will likely be rosters with 7-8 active players (or potentially more) in the finals. As mentioned above, the contests are top-heavy, so a roster with only 4-5 live/active players will be at a severe disadvantage and likely blocked out for first in a situation like this.

Quarterback Strategy

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.