The Oracle 20.24

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Divisional Round Topics

1. Establishing Expectations

2. The Remix

3. Stack SZN

4. Value Plays

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1. Establishing Expectations

The Question ::

We have four games this weekend and the deeper we get into the playoffs the more intense things get. 

This weekend will conclude with the highly anticipated matchup between Baltimore and Buffalo, which is close to a “pick ‘em”. Prior to that, we have three games that have spreads ranging from 6 to 10 points. 

From an expected scoring standpoint, we have two games with totals in the low 40’s (HOU/KC and LAR/PHI) and the other two games with totals comfortably north of 50 (WAS/DET and BAL/BUF).

Two part question::

1. Of the three games with larger spreads, which (if any) of the underdogs do you think is most likely to pull off an upset?
2. Which of the games do you think is most likely to have an outcome far from their expected point totals – KC/HOU or LAR/PHI going way over, or BAL/BUF or WAS/DET failing to meet expectations?

The Answers ::

Xandamere >>

1. I’m going to go Commanders here. Look, all of the big favorites should be big favorites…but the Commanders, man. They’ve been something else. Their defense has come around to being one of the better units in the league in the second half. They played the Eagles twice in the regular season and went 1-1 against them. I just think that as long as Jayden Daniels is around this team has the offensive firepower to scare anyone. 
2. I think BAL/BUF could fail to meet expectations. Both teams have very strong defenses – the Ravens were awful to start the year but rounded into form and allowed under 200 passing yards per game in the season’s second half, and both teams ended top 10 in points allowed per game. The offenses her are explosive and obviously this game could go off, but i think the total is somewhat undervaluing the defensive units.

Hilow >>

1. Give me the Rams for the upset. This game is likely to come down to a “fourth quarter” game, meaning it is likely to come down to who positions themselves best in the final quarter of the game. It is also the game that is likeliest to remain close throughout. I think it is very much within the realm of possibility that we see the Rams pull this one out.
2. I’m going controversial with this one and saying the Commanders-Lions game could disappoint, and it all comes down to Aaron Glenn. This man has been on a heater to end the season with his game planning and situational play calling tendencies, and it could be enough to slow down the surging Commanders who are quarterbacked by a rookie. 

Mike >>

1. I think the Rams are the most likely upset of the weekend and honestly I somewhat expect them to win. Both teams have similar, conservative approaches and if this game is close throughout I like the chances of Matthew Stafford pulling out a close one late over Jalen Hurts. The Eagles offense looked less than impressive last week against the Packers and I expect the Rams to be able to make a game of this. I don’t see the Lions or Chiefs failing in their spots.
2. I think there are paths to HOU/KC having higher scoring that we have seen in Chiefs games this season. Mainly, I think the Chiefs in the postseason could take a step up in terms of their offensive explosiveness. On the flip side of that, the Texans could do just enough to keep up and force Kansas City to keep pushing the issue. The Chiefs didn’t score 30 points in a game this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the dam bursts here.

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2. The Remix

The Question ::

None of these games are divisional matchups, yet three of them are rematches from the regular season. We often talk about how anything can happen in a given week, but these rematches are somewhat unique. HOU/KC played on in Week 16 and the Chiefs pulled out a game that was within one score throughout (as most Chiefs games are). Nothing too crazy happened there in terms of offensive output. However, when the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 Derrick Henry and the Ravens backfield had their best game of the season (which is saying something). Likewise, Saquon Barkley had his best game of his historic season when the Eagles faced the Rams in Week 12. Considering how this slate shapes up, those two players at their hefty salaries seem like they are likely to shape how the slate turns out. A repeat performance by one or both of these players and you’ll likely need them to win. At their salaries, if they just have “OK” games you’re probably just hoping to cash. 

How much stock do you put in those first performances against these defenses and what are your expectations for them for this week?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!