The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
It is only Week 2, and yet we are already faced a slate that seems likely to have two very clear decision points and situations which will have a huge impact on how the slate turns out:
There are a lot of things that impact the outcome of a slate, but these two situations are so extreme and the way the pricing works out they will almost certainly be turning points for the outcomes on Sunday. How are you seeing and approaching these spots?
In 12 healthy games last year, Kyren Williams topped 17 DraftKings points 10 times (incredible), while going for 24+ points in half those games (and 28+ in five of 12!).
Furthermore ::
That’s 12 games Kyren played, and across those 12 games, “Kyren + top Rams WR scorer” would have gone for roughly 4x the combined salary of Kyren + Kupp this week five times(!), while going for roughly 3.5x two-thirds of the time, and while disappointing only twice in 12 games.
Nothing is “guaranteed” in fantasy, but Kyren + Kupp — against Arizona — is about as “guaranteed” as you can get.
Obviously, I have detailed this in other places, but I see Kyren + Kupp pairings as the most +EV way to attack this slate. In MME, it’s sharp to also mix in some Kyren-solo, Kupp-solo, and “Rams rosters without Kyren or Kupp,” but Kyren + Kupp will be the central thesis of my builds this week.
The more I think about pricing on this slate, the more I gravitate toward heavy Mason exposure as well. We’ve talked a lot, across the last couple weeks, about the way running backs are used in today’s NFL, and how this relates to DraftKings pricing (in short: over time, you will return more points-per-dollar-spent at wide receiver than at running back, so it makes sense to prioritize salary at wide receiver where you can; but also, there’s a big gap in role/production between, say, the typical $5k running back (DK) and the typical $6k running back, which also means you sometimes have to eat that extra spending to raise the overall floor and ceiling of your roster). And the fact that Mason is in that low-$5k range with a legitimately large role makes him intriguing not just from a perspective of “how this individual play stacks up,” but also from a perspective of how this allows us to bend the rules we’re usually working with in terms of salary allocation.
Said differently: I’ve been talking, this week, about how you could play Jaleel McLaughlin for the savings, and even though he probably won’t get you more than 11 to 13 points on a good week, this could still be valuable toward a tourney win because of what he allows you to do elsewhere on your roster.
Well, JM: “Keep it simple, stupid.” Mason is only $700 more than McLaughlin.
Because of all the unique pricing components to consider, I don’t think Mason should be judged on the final raw score he produces. Instead, the fact that he should be able to return anywhere from eight to 30 DraftKings points, at only $5.2k, makes him hard to pass up.
Now, this all leads to a chalky start to rosters if using this as your primary core — right? But…
1) How much of the field will have Kupp and Kyren together? 5% would probably be generous, which means that maybe 2% to 3% of the field would have a starting point of Kyren // Mason // Kupp. If that ends up being the sharpest way to build, I’d gladly take sharing that starting point with such a small percentage of the field. And…
2) There is still a lot we can do differently away from this starting point.
If pricing had come out after these games had been played, we would probably be spending just under $23k for this block of three players. Instead, it costs us $19.6k to roster all three. That’s significant, and I personally don’t mind loading up on this starting point and differentiating (with low-owned, high-upside players, or with just plain sharper roster construction) from there.
Another note :: if Kupp + Kyren + Mason is (generously) going to be on only 2% to 3% of rosters…how many of those rosters will also have Deebo? It’s not quite the same setup as Kupp + Kyren, as the 49ers have two other alpha weapons they can work through; but Deebo will almost certainly scoop some extra work left behind by CMC, creating an opportunity to play a pair of player blocks with high floors and ceilings that will be largely overlooked.
In short, I’m playing both and simply figuring out ways to play them that the field is unlikely to utilize.
While we don’t expect Cooper Kupp to see 21 targets every week that Puka is out, we can be highly confident in him seeing 10-13 targets on a weekly basis. Furthermore, we expect those targets to be more downfield against a Cardinals defense that is incapable of generating pressure organically and without the blitz. That should result in a higher aDOT with not everything being these quick hits against a Lions defense that generated the most pressures in Week 1.
As for Mason, we can’t expect him to see a similar pass game role as we would with Christian McCaffrey, but he played an absolutely elite snap rate and saw every running back opportunity for a team that has scored 30 or more points in 16 of 25 Brock Purdy starts in San Francisco. I’ll save some of the way I see to play these guys that the field is unlikely to get to for the End Around and The Slate podcast.
I’m likely going to end up being overweight on both of these spots. Generally speaking, ownership doesn’t bother me at running back – I’m fine playing into chalk at the position where production is most dependent on volume when it’s a spot where we can reasonably project a lot of volume on a good offense at a modest salary. As for the Rams, well, Hilow noted the bull case for them as well. I may end up using an “at least 1 Ram” rule on all of my rosters this week.
Football’s a funny game and players can fail in great spots, but I’m always going to want to play the guys who are in the best spots, even into ownership. There are still plenty of other lineup spots left at which to get different.
Both of these spots fall squarely in the “don’t overthink it” bucket for me, but the Rams in particular are a spot I don’t think we can avoid. It is notable that the five Rams skill players (Kupp, Kyren, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and Colby Parkinson) plus Puka Nacua combined for 85 Draftkings points in Week 1, despite the team only scoring two touchdowns and only Kupp reaching a yardage bonus. Removing Nacua from the equation, it is still highly likely that almost all of the Rams production comes from these five players and they are facing a much worse defense this week. Those five players combined have a salary of about $25k on Draftkings and if the Rams score 3 or 4 touchdowns it is not hard to see the group putting up over 100 points. Even if the Rams simply have another similar outing, around 80 points from that group at their prices would necessitate a situation where either all of them were “solid” or a couple of them were “smashes”. In MME play, I’ll probably have at least 2 Rams in most of my lineups. In smaller field, I’ve been toying with three or even four Rams in lineups even without Stafford.
As for the Jordan Mason situation, that one has more paths to failure, and they are pretty clear:
That makes “Purdy Doubles” one of the more interesting leverage opportunities on the slate.
Everyone focuses so much on “ownership” and trying to be different with every play, but that’s not really necessary. You can have Kupp, Kyren, and another Rams WR/TE at 20%+ ownership each and Deebo Samuel at 15%+, but if you put Purdy/Aiyuk or Purdy/Kittle in that lineup as well you’ve put yourself on a pretty unique path and still have three spots to differentiate more if you feel the need. Lesson of the day, don’t let ownership dictate your path.
While individual player takes and situations are important to know and play a role in DFS, we know that locating the right team and game environments is often the critical part to the process. This week, we know the Rams/Cardinals game will be popular due to the aforementioned Rams situation and the Bucs/Lions game should also be a high scoring affair that is rightfully targeted by the field. The Bengals travel to play the Chiefs and that game is likely to draw attention as well. However, this is a 13 game slate which means there are 10 more games on the slate. We are so early in the season that it is likely there is another gem somewhere in there which will be the key to unlocking the slate – which one do you think it is?
expires end of 12/2!
