The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
Bringing back a weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?
SO MUCH is unique about this slate. Where to even begin? The 49ers are one of the most consistently effective offenses in the NFL, they are playing a downtrodden Rams defense, they don’t generally scheme touches to players outside their superstars, and they are missing three of their four superstars. On the other side of that game, the Rams are missing Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and their entire offensive line. Kenneth Walker is doubtful, Joe Mixon is doubtful (and his top backup is out), Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson remain out for the Vikings, Keenan Allen remains out for the Bears, A.J. Brown remains out for the Eagles, Justin Herbert is genuinely questionable for the Chargers, Jordan Love seems 50/50 at best for the Packers, Tua Tagovailoa is out for the Dolphins, and Bryce Young has been benched for the Panthers. Am I missing anything? On top of all that, the way that defenses are attacking offenses is continuing to change, and the way offenses are fighting back has changed as well (see the Angles Pod for a deep dive on this!). And somehow, even with all the injuries, there are not any particularly attractive “value options” on the slate. That said, there are a lot of players in the mid-range of salary who are underpriced for their expected roles. All of this, and it’s only Week 3!
Well, maybe not unique because this week is a massive chalk slate….just like last week! We have players in really strong spots who are just not priced for their roles. Players in good spots fail all the time, of course, but I would say there’s a lot of “good chalk” on this slate. That said…whenever ownership gets super concentrated, that by necessity means other players are low owned, and there are some extremely high-ceiling options (hi, Ceedee Lamb!) out there at very modest ownership. All in all my list of players I’m interested in is quite large this week – much larger than normal – and while I’ll continue to work to prune it down, it just means there are a LOT of viable paths you can take on this slate.
I expect immense chalk at the running back position due to the injuries around the league, with some combination of Jordan Mason, Cam Akers, and Zach Charbonnet likely paired together at an extreme rate (at least on DraftKings – FanDuel has priced Mason up to hilarious levels). Also, for the first time this season, we have three games with a game total north of 47.0 points. That’s meaningful, particularly in a season that has started off with the lowest scoring in over a decade (and the most field goals in almost 30 years). Furthermore, two of those games are in the afternoon portion of the slate, in addition to the 49ers and Rams in the afternoon, bringing really the first slate with much in the way of late-swap consideration this season.
Last week after a great deal of excitement for a condensed offense in a perceived good matchup, we were burned by the Rams laying a dud and one of their studs getting injured in the first half. The NFL season is in full swing with injuries galore to start the year, which has us in a spot where we will have to weigh the potential “value” of a condensed offense with the impact that a loss of a key player will have. This week on the main slate we have several of those spots::
It seems like in one way or another, these spots are going to have a huge impact on how this slate plays out. The Rams tanked and took a large chunk of the field with them in Week 2 when they failed. If ownership congregates on one of these spots it could do the same this week if things go bad. Likewise, if that spot hits and you aren’t on it that can be the “nail in the coffin”, so to speak. And if one of these spots with a key player missing goes overlooked by the field that could be the low-owned spot that propels you to the top of the leaderboard.
Perhaps the hottest topic so far this season in the NFL/Fantasy Football community has been the utter lack of offensive excitement, scoring, and passing success. This year has had, by far, the fewest passing touchdowns through 2 weeks over the last 10 seasons. We could talk at length about *why* this is happening, but the more important question is “what do we do about it?”
This question is from a macro perspective. Do you think this early season trend holds and, if so, how does it alter your DFS approach?
expires end of 12/2!
