Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:

The Oracle 19.23

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Wildcard Topics

1. Upsets Brewing

2. Contest Selection

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

1. Upsets Brewing

The Question ::

Boiled down to its simplest form, DFS is about scoring the most fantasy points and, ideally, finding ways to get those points that are different than the majority of your competition. The best way to score fantasy points is to find offenses that post a lot of yards and points themselves. The teams that score the most points usually win. This all seems obvious, but for this weekend feels especially critical. Working our way backwards, if there is a team who posts an upset victory this weekend they are likely to have players contributing tournament-winning scores. The 4 vs. 5 games in both conferences both feel like relative coin flips, as they have close point spreads with the “worse” seed technically favored but playing on the road. It wouldn’t be surprising for either of those games to go either way. With all of that in mind, from the four remaining games which team do you think is most likely to pull of an upset or at the very least post some big offensive numbers::

  • Pittsburgh (at Buffalo)
  • Miami (at Kansas City)
  • Green Bay (at Dallas)
  • LA Rams (at Detroit)
The Answers ::
Xandamere >>

Rams first and foremost. The Rams have been REALLY good lately. With their main guys healthy, as they are now, they’ve only lost 1 game since Kyren Williams took over at running back (and he’s been SO good, it’s made their offense as a whole much more effective). I think they’re quite underrated and while Detroit is certainly a very good team, I think the Rams have the highest chance of pulling off an upset. Next in line would be Miami, because the Chiefs offense has been hot garbage for much of the season – they’ve been winning with their defense, but Miami’s offense has so much explosiveness that they can score on anyone. Next would be the Packers, and then finally the Steelers. 

Hilow >>

The Rams have the best chances of the remaining teams at an upset, and I would argue they likely also have the best chances of the remaining teams to return a score you had to have. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, in particular, are capable of that 30+ DK point outing and Kupp, in particular, appears to be going relatively overlooked on both the Sunday slate and the full six-game slate. As a Pack fan, I would love nothing more than an upset on the road in Jerruh World, but I was really hoping the 49ers would have pulled off the win in Week 18 over the Rams so the Packers could travel to a familiar opponent in the Lions. Alas, here we are. As for those 4-5 games, I like the Buccaneers to topple the Eagles and the Browns to decimate the Texans.

Mike >>

The more research I’ve done on these games and as they get closer, I actually think we are in store for a potentially extremely exciting weekend of football. I wouldn’t be surprised by upsets in any of these four games, which is cheating on the question a bit. The Steelers have a shot because of the impending weather, which adds a layer of uncertainty and crazy things can happen – plus Buffalo often finds ways to beat themselves. If that happens, however, it is likely in an ugly, low scoring type of game. The Dolphins have a chance due to the Chiefs offensive struggles but the weather there I think actually hurts Miami the most. Miami’s defense is also very banged up and I feel like they may actually have the toughest time actually pulling out a victory from the four teams mentioned.

This leaves us with the Packers and Rams. As Xandamere points out, the Rams have been playing great football lately and even gave the dominant Ravens a scare, forcing them to come back to force overtime in Baltimore. They probably have the best chance of winning among the #6 and #7 seeds. The team that really interests me for DFS purposes, however, is the Packers. As I discussed in the NFL Edge writeup for that game, the Packers defense is highly unlikely to hold the Cowboys much below 30 points based on a variety of factors from past performance and how those units matchup. This means that if the Packers win, they have scored a lot of points and put up a lot of yards – which is exactly what we are looking for.

2. Contest Selection

The Question ::

What slates and contests are you planning to play this weekend and what are some things that you are focusing on in your builds or strategies as you enter these contests?

The Answers ::


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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!