The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
There are a few really ugly looking games on this slate and several others that have modest matchups and game environments. Because of that, the few ripe spots on the slate have extra value and it is much easier for one team or game to truly bust away from the pack. With that in mind, which of these explosive offenses do you think is most likely to score 40 points and how does that shape your DFS approach?
Kansas City would have to be the team in my mind. With that said, I think it’s important to take a moment to “remove the names from the jerseys” on this Texans defense. They rank 17th in pass defense DVOA and 20th in overall DVOA. They rank 26th in points allowed, but no team has topped 30 against them in their last seven games, which includes contests against Philadelphia, Miami, and Dallas. None of this concerns me from a “Patrick Mahomes production” standpoint, but I do think the perception of this defense is different from its reality, and I think the chances of a 40-pointer from the Chiefs are relatively low (well, of course, 40-pointers are always rare, but since the question is framed as such, it’s worth throwing that out there!). I’m viewing the Eagles and Chiefs this week as likely four-touchdown units, and I’m viewing the Chargers and Cowboys on the 3 to 4 touchdown borderline.
I think the Chiefs and the Eagles are most likely to score 40, and why that is especially interesting to me is that the Eagles currently have some egregiously low combined ownership projections. The top total combined flex ownership (i.e. not including QB/DST) are currently: Chiefs at 56.5%, Chargers at 53.4%, Cowboys at 42.8% and the Eagles are at . . . wait for it . . . 22.4%. I don’t know if the Eagles have the highest chance to score 40 here – that’s probably the Chiefs – but IF they score 40, it looks like almost nobody is going to be on them, and so that’s where I’m willing to plant my flag.
The Chiefs and Chargers jump off the page for me this week. The Eagles and Cowboys are both teams that have been known to take their foot off the gas when afforded that opportunity, and it’s a bit more likely that they are each allowed to do so this week. Eric Bieniemy spoke about the Chiefs inability to put teams away this week, saying they had to do a better job of continuing the press moving forward. The Chargers have not scored more than 34 points in a game this season but have their full complement of offensive weapons healthy for the first time since Week 1.
Mike’s answers will be posted by Sunday morning
We are going back to the well this week to find a hidden gem, after diving into this concept last week and then watching the Jaguars pop off for 36 points (more than two touchdowns over their implied total) and carry rosters to the top of leaderboards. Eleven of the twenty teams playing on this slate have an implied team total of fewer than 22 points:
Which of those teams projected for under 22 points do you think is most likely to score 30 or more?