StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins
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Thanksgiving offers us a slate with a high number of casual players, who will build lineups and not give a second thought to changing them after the first game locks. The scheduling of the games also provides us a unique opportunity unlike almost every other slate this season, where we can “build the plane as we fly”. This will be further discussed in the strategy section, but as more information becomes available as the games unfold, we can modify our heading or direction (see what I did there) on where each roster needs to go.
From a 10,000-foot view, my overall strategy is to submit several duplicates of each roster I put in play. For example, if playing a 150-max, I would build either 25 or 30 rosters and duplicate them 5-6 times each. In general, my focus is on the early game; On some rosters building stacks around Caleb Williams or Goff, on others maybe just one mini-correlation, and finally some with only one piece from the game. The objective here is to nail the nuts, or close to it, after the first game, and adjust as more information becomes available throughout the day. You should have a good sense of where your rosters stand after the first game ends, with 30 minutes in between games to adjust accordingly. The hope is to get at least one of your builds to potentially have the right pieces from the first game and give yourself 5-6 opportunities to build differently from there to maximize sweat potential. If you take multiple different approaches to the first game as outlined above, you likely will have several rosters (and their clones) with potential going into the afternoon and evening games.
You may ask, that makes sense for 150, but what would that look like if only building 20 rosters? My suggestion would be to rank the QBs/game environments and pick your top 2 to build around. With 20 lineups, I would suggest 4 (or 5) “base” rosters and duplicate/clone them 4-5 times considering the same principles mentioned above. You will likely feel like there are so many more angles to cover but try to avoid FOMO. You must keep in mind that the likeliest outcome for this slate, and all slates, is that you will lose, so play fearlessly!
From an overall strategy standpoint, I think every initial build should have at least three spots reserved for players in the late game with a minimum of $18,000 in salary. Miami and Green Bay both have potent offenses (only behind Detroit on this slate), with Miami scoring at least 20 in every healthy game from Tua this season, while Green Bay has scored at least 20 in 8 of 9 games that Love has started. On paper, this game sets up as the best overall environment with a close spread and a high game total, and I’d want to ensure some flexibility on how to close out any rosters in contention going into the final game.
Finally, if you are traditionally a single entry or 3-max player, my suggestion is to consider playing more lineups than usual. However from a bankroll management perspective, this does not necessarily mean allocating more funds this week. We want to give ourselves the most chances to leverage the advantage late swap provides on this unique slate, and DK has given us many options across the micro, low and mid-stakes to consider.
