As we’ve talked about in the past on the Thanksgiving slate, this slate is unlike any other. We get more information as each game is played, able to compare our rosters to optimal at each new decision point. As such, the general roster construction technique I preach that is likely to generate the most meaningful boost to expected value is to only build for the first game, after which we take in the new information, assess where our rosters stand, and adjust for game number two. We’ll get into micro leverage stances and how I expect the field to build below, but the single most +EV thing you can do on this slate is to build through the lens of the first game only.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece. For the Thanksgiving slate, we’re going to massage our threshold to classify a play as ownership with there being only three games, with the new benchmark being 40%.
Rico Dowdle took over a true lead back role in Week 9, playing snap rates of 71%, 52%, 49%, and 61% in the team’s last four games. Even so, Dowdle has just five games with even double digit DraftKings points this season, including just one game over 20 DK points. If the field wants to make him the highest-owned running back on the slate, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere.
Keenan Allen actually leads the team in most underlying metrics against man coverage this season, also leading the team in targets since Thomas Brown took over the offense as the interim offensive coordinator (23 for Allen, 20 for Odunze, 14 for Moore, and 13 for Kmet). I have no issue calling him a solid on-paper play against the pass-funnel Lions on Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb surprisingly has just two games with more than 20 DK points this season, peaking at 18.6 DK points with backup quarterback Cooper Rush during the most recent three-game stretch. At the same time, the alpha wide receiver has seen double-digit targets in six consecutive games. And then on the other hand, Lamb’s aDOT with Rush has fallen all the way to 5.7, making it very difficult for him to put up a score you could not win without.
After scoring just once in his first six games, Josh Jacobs has now found paint seven times in his previous five games. Even so, he is averaging just 2.72 targets per game this season, leaving him as a “yardage and touchdown plus” back this season. In other words, the floor is much lower than the field is giving credit for considering he has gone over 100 yards just three times this season while scoring multiple touchdowns just twice, twice doing so in the same game. Not many will realize he played his second lowest snap rate of the season in his three-touchdown game a week ago.
While head coach Dan Campbell reportedly “feels good” about David Montgomery’s chances of playing on a short week after injuring his shoulder in Week 12, there is the potential for his workload to be held in check. For that reason, I currently have Jahmyr Gibbs as the top running back play on the slate.
