Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
At a certain point, the dam breaks. That is the hope for this Falcons offense that is just brimming with young talent at the skill positions. While Arthur Smith has not been a favorite of fantasy enthusiasts or football fans who enjoy a more “modern” approach to the game for the past few seasons, an objective look at things shows that he has actually done a good job of getting a lot out of the personnel he has on his teams. In Tennessee, he built a highly efficient offense around the strengths of Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. After a rough first year in Atlanta, the Falcons had one of the most efficient ground games in the league despite being very predictable in their approach. Much of this likely had to do with the skill set of their starting QB, Marcus Mariota, whose rushing ability was leveraged by the Falcons scheme and whose passing ability was limited. The toolbox for this year’s version of the Falcons will be fully stocked and with Ridder or Heinicke under center, should move to a more balanced or even, dare I say, slightly pass heavy approach.
All things considered, there is just so much potential for this offense and all we need is Arthur Smith to utilize the strengths of his players effectively for this team to take advantage of a very favorable schedule. Desmond Ridder showed flashes during his time on the field to end the season and could develop nicely with the pieces around him. Even average QB play from Ridder (or Heinicke) would make this offense very fun and explosive. The other potential spark that ignites this offense would be if Atlanta acquired a mid-tier veteran quarterback (Ryan Tannehill’s Arthur Smith connection makes a ton of sense) who would immediately make this team the odds on favorite in the NFC South and a potential top-10 offense.
Bear Case::
The Falcons seem to have built an offensive identity in 2022 and drafting a running back with the 8th overall pick could signify they are leaning into that identity even more. With a head coach who has shown a propensity to pound the run and questions at the quarterback position, it is hard to see this offense taking advantage of the significant on-paper talent they have in the building this season. The lack of offensive firepower and poor expected QB play from the other teams in their division and a schedule that doesn’t have many high end offenses that would push them into uptempo environments, there is a relatively high probability that the Falcons can keep the status quo and be in contention in the NFC South without having to get out of their comfort zone in tempo or passing aggression. A slow tempo, run heavy team that potentially splits up work among their running backs and limits their explosive passing plays is a tough sell when the players involved come at such premium draft costs (Robinson in the 1st round, London in the 4th, Pitts in the 5th).
Expectations/Takeaways::
I love how this Falcons team is set-up for the long-term on the offensive side of the ball, but their weak schedule, coach’s philosophy and team identity make it tough to see that potential being realized in 2023. They are my pick to win the NFC South this year, but I think that “success” in the win column will contribute to them keeping the lid on the offense’s potential. I will definitely be mixing Bijan Robinson into some drafts as his talent is undeniable and I’m not going to fade a player like that on an offense that has had so much success with the running game. Pitts and London are interesting options, but I think I prefer trying to get both of them on rosters as a part of team stacks – so either on rosters where I’ve already drafted Robinson or once I take one of London or Pitts then the remaining ATL skill players will become more prioritized for me. What I mean by that is that if Pitts and/or London are paying off their draft costs, it likely means the team as a whole ended up closer to the “Bull Case” than the “Bear Case”, and that means that there will be several players whose production exceeds their draft capital and also means that the team will be more likely to provide week winning performances during the playoff weeks.
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
Despite a lack of talent on the roster and a lot of organizational instability, the Panthers overachieved and were alive for a playoff berth until a Week 17 loss to the Bucs in 2022. This year they have a fresh start with a new head coach and quarterback, a fact that is even more exciting when you consider the fit of the system and player. Bryce Young is far from a perfect prospect, but all of his strongest areas – intelligence, decision making, ability to make plays with his legs, accuracy – should fit perfectly in head coach Frank Reich’s system. While Reich’s offenses were up and down during his time with the Colts, a lot of that likely had to do with the makeshift approach they took at quarterback and the questionable fits that those quarterbacks had for his system. Two of the past three years, the Colts entered the season with extremely old and immobile quarterbacks (Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers) who shrunk the RPO-heavy playbook that made Reich a star as an offensive coordinator and got him a head coaching job in the first place. The one year where they had a quarterback with mobility, it was the shell of Carson Wentz whose notorious questionable decision making also worked to torpedo the Colts offense at inopportune times. Bryce Young, on the other hand, has elite processing skills both before and after the snap which should allow Reich to fully unleash his offensive vision. Young is also capable of extending and making plays with his legs and can deliver the ball with timing and accuracy.
Quarterback in the NFL is the most important position in professional sports and that importance is even more critical in a system like Reich’s. Reich’s system is not a perfect fit for every quarterback and Young’s profile is not without some concerns, but this appears to be a perfect system-QB fit and that rising tide should lift all boats – especially for a team with a favorable schedule in a weak division. The optimistic view of the Panthers offense in 2023 is that this pairing along with a capable supporting cast of proven veterans can operate efficiently and allow the offense as a whole to exceed expectations.
Bear Case::
While the Young-Reich pairing could truly be dynamic, 2023 will almost certainly have some tough sledding. The biggest concern has to be the supporting cast, as the Panthers offense doesn’t have much punch to it and is filled with players who are likely best fit to be deployed in complementary roles at this point in their careers. The Panthers acquired a lot of pieces in free agency who project to be starting skill players for their offense: Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Hayden Hurst. Those are some solid NFL players who have produced in the league, but upon deeper inspection we can see that the actual on-field product of this offense is likely much worse than how it looks on paper. The game is played on the field, where physicality, athleticism, and explosiveness matter. Last year we saw how adding an alpha talent like AJ Brown to the Eagles offense made the whole offense better by sliding everyone into place. On the flip side, the Panthers have no “alpha” talents and all of the aforementioned players the Panthers have added are not fit for primary roles:
To sum up the “Bear Case” for the Panthers, there is a chance Reich’s offensive system was as much of the problem the last couple of years as the personnel. Young is an undersized quarterback who would not be considered for the #1 pick in many drafts and will be playing with a supporting cast that lacks elite athleticism or talent. Adding to that, the “favorable schedule” argument could work against the fantasy outlook for the Panthers as they could end up being able to be competitive in a bunch of low scoring, “grind it out” type of games that end up limiting scoring. There is a very real chance that Carolina got out over their skis with what they gave up in their quest to answer their questions at quarterback and have taken one step forward and two steps back, or at the very least that this offense is a year or two away from moving out of the lower echelon of the league.
Expectations/Takeaways::
While our “Bull” and “Bear” cases laid out the extremes of what could happen with the Panthers in 2023, it seems most likely that they will land right in the middle of those potential outcomes. The coach-QB fit, and the relatively easy schedule should allow Carolina to have some very positive moments in 2023, however the lack of elite talent surrounding Young will likely keep the Panthers offense from setting the league on fire. Young is very talented, and I actually think at some point in his career he will lead some extremely effective offenses, but he will need a very strong supporting cast around him. He won’t need an insane skill group to be successful, but the current crew of complementary pieces isn’t enough, and the Panthers will need to add a couple of dynamic players around him in the next year or two if they want to give Young a chance to be successful. Ironically, DJ Moore is exactly the type of receiver who would likely thrive playing in Reich’s system with Young throwing to him. We often see offenses led by rookie QBs get better as the season progresses, but I worry that the “house of cards” that the Panthers have at their skill positions will prevent that from happening as they are already undermanned, and the NFL is always full of injuries. My expectations for Carolina tend to be more on the “Bear” side, but their favorable schedule should allow for some highlights along the way and some spike weeks that we can benefit from in both Best Ball and DFS.
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
The Saints have organizational stability and, by far, the most accomplished NFL quarterback in the division on their side. A promising schedule outside of the division as well leaves New Orleans perfectly suited to take advantage of Tom Brady leaving the division and the Falcons and Panthers being in the middle of rebuilding processes. Chris Olave had a tremendous rookie season and Michael Thomas appears primed for a comeback after a slew of injuries had derailed his outstanding career. Derek Carr has been very good at multiple points in his career and those two WR’s could combine to be a terrific duo whose skill sets complement each other extremely well. Adding Rashid Shaheed, who seems to make electric plays every time the ball is in his hands, to that group makes it a potentially dynamic position for New Orleans. Juwan Johnson emerged as a capable big play and red zone weapon at tight end, while Taysom Hill’s versatility keeps defenses guessing and adds a unique wrinkle to the Saints game plans.
The backfield also balances nicely, with Jamaal Williams being a dependable runner and capable in other phases of the game as well. His presence alongside Alvin Kamara’s dynamic skill set gives New Orleans some flexibility and versatility that they were often lacking last year. If Kamara misses time due to suspension, rookie RB Kendre Miller is an explosive runner who should be able to fill the void adequately.
The 2022 Saints team was never able to fully put things together, but an upgrade at quarterback and a more balanced and deep skill group should give them significantly more offensive punch this year. They should be able to take advantage of a weak division and schedule, with Derek Carr distributing the ball to a variety of playmakers as Chris Olave asserts himself as an alpha wide receiver and Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas prove they are still effective players in their own rights, with their production improving and becoming more efficient as defenses are not able to key in on them like they have the past few years.
Bear Case::
While the Saints offensive personnel has improved dramatically since last season, Derek Carr isn’t exactly known for being the match that sets an offense on fire. Perhaps the biggest concern for Carr’s ability to push the Saints offense to a higher level is how well Jarrett Stidham played as the Raiders QB once Carr was benched at the end of last season. The Raiders struggled to score for much of the season and most of their offense relied on two players – Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. When Stidham entered the game for the Raiders in Week 17, they torched the 49ers who were one of the top defensive units in the league.
If we want to infer that Carr is more of a game manager who needs elite talent to carry him and keep an offense afloat, Kamara and Thomas are no longer those types of players. The Saints offense looks great on paper right now, but if Kamara is suspended and Thomas is a shell of his old self then this team is potentially stuck in the same spot (or worse) on offense that they were in a year ago. The “easy schedule” narrative could also work against the Saints, as they should have a capable defense and with Carr managing games they may prefer to play things close to the vest and be happy grinding out low scoring victories.
Expectations/Takeaways::
New Orleans is a well coached team in a weak division and objectively has the best quarterback situation in the NFC South. I do think that the Saints offense should be efficient and will have some very solid games, but I also think that their strong defense and lack of tough opposing offenses will keep this from becoming a team that is involved in a lot of shootouts. As for the individual pieces::
August Update::
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes::
Dave Canales is a bright young offensive coach who is getting his first shot as an offensive coordinator this year. Canales was previously involved in the passing game for the Seahawks and was the QB coach behind the Geno Smith career revival.
Personnel Changes::
Schedule::
Bull Case::
Everything starts at the quarterback position in the NFL. Baker Mayfield has disappointed for the last three seasons, but had a seemingly bright future ahead of him early in his career. New OC Dave Canales could be a perfect fit for Mayfield and could potentially revive his career the same way he helped Geno Smith. In Seattle, the Seahawks offense ran heavily through two high end wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, something that the Bucs can replicate with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs offense is focused on being “simple in concept, complex in delivery,” in the words of Canales. That recipe sounds perfect for Mayfield, who was at his best in college and early in his career when he was put in position to make quick decisions and use his accuracy to pick apart defenses. The “Bull Case” for the Bucs rides on Mayfield being able to get back on track and playing “point guard” for the team while peppering their premier talents with targets. Everyone seems to have written off the Bucs offense now that Tom Brady is gone, but Brady’s efficiency really wasn’t that great last season to begin with so there’s a chance that a new OC and less pressure of expectations actually lets this offense breathe and significantly exceed what appears to be very low expectations across the industry.
Bear Case::
The Bucs were one of the least efficient offenses for most of the 2022 season – ranking 31st in yards per pass attempt and 32nd in yards per carry. Since then, the Bucs lost arguably the greatest QB in NFL history and replaced him with a QB who is on his fourth team in three seasons. The “bear case” for this team is pretty straightforward – the offense was bad last year and, on paper, lost more than they gained in the offseason. While Canales sounds like a sharp guy, he’s also in a tough spot and is calling plays for the first time in his career. This could go sideways in a hurry and things could get really murky if the front office decides to move Evans and/or Godwin now or during the season while they still have decent trade value. The Bucs could easily struggle early in the season and have a firesale as an attempt to spark the rebuild by effectively “tanking” for one of the premier QB’s in the 2024 draft class.
Expectations/Takeaways::
Godwin and Evans are going in the 6th and 7th rounds, while Mayfield isn’t even being drafted in many drafts. Those prices are eerily similar to the 2022 Seahawks group of Metcalf, Lockett, Geno – a group that I was much higher on than consensus and that helped me make some deep runs in Best Ball playoffs. While there is a ton of downside that is apparent for this offense, the upside is immense due to the severely depressed ADP’s.
August Update::
