Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 9.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 9 and we’re almost halfway through the NFL season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP twice and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re halfway through the season and we’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

Oh, we have some delicious looking quarterbacks at the top of my projections this week. Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Taysom Hill project as my top three QBs of the week, all with multipliers of 1.5 or higher, and all in good game environments. Taysom can be played naked, while the others are very stackable. Despite lower multipliers, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are both highly viable this week as well. Guys that don’t project quite as strongly, but have ceilings we know can be good enough for tournaments despite that, include: Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins.

Running Back:

What a week, when the best-projected running backs are Eli Mitchell and Myles Gaskin. I’m nervous about Mitchell because he’s so game script sensitive, while Gaskin’s workload comes and goes from game to game, so while they project well, I view these two as pretty volatile. The same dynamics discussed in The Oracle about running backs are in play here, where there isn’t a lot of certainty, and the ceilings are somewhat questionable. Because of that, I’m okay targeting lower-multiplier running backs as well this week, like Kamara, Zeke, Ekeler, and CMC. In the “riskier” category, I’m also interested in Boston Scott, who was running as the clear lead back for the Eagles until the game completely got away, at a 1.7x multiplier, and in one of the higher total games of the week, there’s upside here (to be clear, a lot of downside risk as well, with Hurts and now Jordan Howard available to steal work and touchdowns). 

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Jaylen Waddle is the WR1 for the Dolphins going up against what is likely the worst overall team in the NFL. He makes a great stacking partner with Tua. 
  • Brandin Cooks sure makes a great bring back, whether doing a full game stack of that game or just using them as a correlated pair.
  • Tee Higgins has a 1.5 multiplier and still leads the Bengals in targets. Variance will swing his way at some point.
  • Kadarius Toney has a massive 1.75x multiplier. That’s nuts. 
  • It’s been a couple of weeks since an Emmanuel Sanders explosion game so his multiplier has slipped back to 1.6x. Now he gets a matchup against the Jags.
  • Ceedee Lamb has a 1.3x multiplier and is probably one of the best five or ten receivers in the NFL. 
  • Mike Williams is still sitting at 1.4x. The Chargers should have to throw this game and the Eagles pass defense is not great. 

Tight End:

After an awful week of tight end, we now get some good ones back. Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Kyle Pitts are all strong tight plays to me, in that order of preference. Dan Arnold is still sitting at a 2x multiplier despite seeing 10 targets (!!) last week. Dalton Schultz has a 1.65 multiplier, the Cowboys have one of the highest team totals of the week, and Schultz has seen six or more targets in every game but one. If Dawson Knox returns, he can be considered a risky upside piece. Tyler Conklin has a 1.85x multiplier and one of the best possible tight end matchups. After a barren week at tight end, this week we have lots of strong options, which of course means they will all fail and CJ Uzomah will score two touchdowns again. 

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Geno Smith look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes. For example, Jordan Love projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments, even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong. Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • MIA/HOU looks like a good game environment to target, with Tua as my highest projected quarterback and Waddle/Cooks as two of the strongest receiver plays. 
  • Jordan Love projects really well but pairing him is a challenge. At a 1x multiplier with a backup quarterback, I’m not sure of the stackability here, and the Chiefs are also largely low-multiplier options as well, further reducing the attractiveness of stacking this game. 
  • Taysom Hill can be played naked or stacked.
  • The Ravens/Vikings game is the highest total game on the slate and we get some decent multipliers on the pieces there.
  • Josh Allen at 1x isn’t super attractive in a vacuum, but if you add Emmanuel Sanders you get a lot more multiplier upside.
  • Daniel Jones to Kadarius Toney is one of my favorite tourney stacks this week. We know the Giants are volatile, but we also know they have upside, and I doubt Jones will be super highly owned.