Monday, Nov 28th

SuperDraft Strategy 8.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 8 and we’re almost halfway through the NFL season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP twice and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

Also, apologies for no article last week. There was an editing error that resulted in the article I wrote being overwritten, and I didn’t have time to redo it. Won’t happen again!

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

Jalen Hurts is my top projected quarterback of the week, which I love because I also want to stack that game. He also brings a high floor thanks to his rushing so everything lines up for him. If you want to play Josh Allen and a Bills stack, despite the 1x multiplier, I wouldn’t argue as Allen projects so well that he’s my 2nd-highest QB. Carson Wentz at 1.4x in a likely shootout, Jared Goff with a sexy 1.6x multiplier on the other side of the Philly game, and Sam Darnold at 1.45x against Atlanta are my other higher-multiplier favorites, while Teddy Bridgewater looks interesting against Washington’s awful secondary. Tom Brady has shown he can get there in any game despite a low multiplier, and then of all the things that make me hate myself, Geno Smith actually projects well because of his 1.65x multiplier and a matchup against the atrocious Jaguars. I don’t want to do this . . .

Running Back:

My highest projected running back is Alvin Kamara, but recognize that the Bucs defense is smarter than the Seahawks and they won’t just leave him open to catch 10 passes for 100 yards or whatever he did against Seattle, there’s risk here. Austin Ekeler is my second highest projected back in a much better environment. D’Andre Swift looks great paired with Hurts or Goff, while Darrell Henderson failed last week but is back once again as a bell cow back in a good matchup with a huge team total. In the higher-multiplier range, Khalil Herbert at 1.75x is awfully attractive as his role has been growing week over week with more pass game involvement. Najee Harris and Joe Mixon have great volume and strong upside, while Jonathan Taylor is in an awesome matchup but will have to get there on efficiency. You can also include Chuba Hubbard, James Robinson, and Alex Collins at high multipliers, although those would be “sprinkle” guys for me rather than someone I’d want to go in heavily on. Kenneth Gainwell is in a similar boat, as I would think he’s first up with Miles Sanders hurt, but Boston Scott will be involved, and Hurts is probably the favorite to lead the team in rushing. Oh, and Derrick Henry has a 1x multiplier but he can score 40+ anyhow, despite a tough matchup (I’m probably not using him at all, but he’s worth mentioning as he does have the ceiling you need).

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Mike Williams is, once again, my favorite wide receiver of the week. He’s still sitting at a 1.45x multiplier, which is ridiculous considering the season he’s having. I’m in.
  • Michael Pittman should see plenty of work in a great matchup and Colts receivers are dropping like flies. His 1.65 multiplier is sexy.
  • Cooper Kupp has a 1x multiplier but good grief he seems to go for 100+ yards and two touchdowns every freaking week.
  • Ja’Marr Chase against the Jets? Yeah, I’ll play that.
  • Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, because Antonio Brown is still out and it’s awfully hard to run against the Saints. Yes, Marshawn Lattimore has clamped down on Evans in the past, but every game is different.
  • DJ Moore against the Falcons, yum yum. 
  • AJ Brown against the Colts and their outstanding run defense. 1.4x for a top-5 NFL receiver? Yes, please.

Tight End:

Tight end looks horrendous this week. Kyle Pitts has a 1x multiplier, normally reserved for guys like Travis Kelce or maybe Darren Waller. Eww. Other multipliers are being squeezed as well, with Dallas Goedert at 1.05x, Mike Gesicki at 1.1x, and T.J. Hockenson and Rob Gronkowski both at 1.15x. Any of those guys could put up the highest tight end score on the slate (which will probably be not very many points. I would absolutely, positively not play double tight end on Superdraft this week). I really don’t like anyone here outside of game stacks besides those dudes, and then Ricky Seals-Jones, who is in an every-down role but still sitting at a 1.75 multiplier; and then Dan Arnold at a whopping 2x multiplier with 13 targets in the last two weeks as a heavily-involved member of this passing attack.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Geno Smith look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Geno Smith projects well by median outcome but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The PHI/DET game looks tasty on Superdraft. Hurts and one of his receivers with Swift, Hockenson, or even a Detroit wide receiver coming back looks very attractive, and going the other side with Goff works too.
  • Wentz to Pittman is the single best projected QB/WR combo and I’m on board with it. Both have played well and shown legitimate ceiling this season. I have a harder time using Derrick Henry as a bring back with his 1x multiplier, but you could play this without a bring back, or use AJ Brown.
  • I’m on board with a Bills onslaught, but don’t really have much interest in any Dolphins.
  • Teddy Bridgewater to Courtland Sutton looks solid, and if we get news that Jerry Jeudy is going to play a full complement of snaps he can also be considered.
  • There are some other viable options that if you’re doing MME you could consider in your pool, such as: Rams or Bucks onslaughts; Burrow to Chase or Higgins; Darnold to Moore; Tannehill to AJB; or Trevor Lawrence to Marvin Jones, but the ones listed prior to this bullet point are the primary stacks I’m going to be targeting this week.