Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 6.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 6, and it finally happened. Superdraft reduced the size of their primary GPP a bit. That said, this is entirely normal throughout the NFL season, contests get smaller as the season goes on. If this contest gets the same number of entries as it did last week, we’ll still see some overlay here, which makes it still worth pursuing. After I came THIS close to winning it last week, I’m definitely going after it again.

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

Superdraft is a funny site because the highest projected quarterback that I have is . . . Taylor Heinicke. With his 1.55x multiplier, and in the best game environment on the slate, Heinicke projects really well. So do his weapons. He’s a good play, but expect him to be really popular. If you want to roster stud quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes project well despite limited multipliers. I also wouldn’t argue with targeting Justin Herbert again, or Matthew Stafford in one of the highest total games on the week, but there are also a few other somewhat sneakier options available. Mac Jones should be passing a lot as the Patriots try to keep up with the Cowboys, and while Jones is not a great quarterback by any means, a 1.65 multiplier is extremely lucrative if he does hit. Joe Burrow against the Lions stands out at 1.45x, as does Carson Wentz with 1.55x against the woeful Texans. I’m also still tempted by the upside of Justin Fields at a massive 1.7x multiplier, even though we haven’t seen success from him yet. I feel like it’s coming.

Running Back:

The chalk play here is going to be Khalil Herbert with his almost never seen 2x multiplier. He’ll be highly owned, but with this multiplier, he’s a pretty darn good play. Kareen Hunt is just at 1.25x (surprisingly low for him), but without Nick Chubb, he’s another really strong option. Past those two, the running back field flattens out and opens up opportunities for us to find some higher multiplier options. Chuba Hubbard (1.55x), Darrell Henderson (1.3x), D’Andre Swift (1.3x), Darrel Williams (1.65x), Antonio Gibson (1.3x) all look tempting. I’d really be interested in Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones but their multipliers are just gross, but Dalvin Cook at 1.1x feels playable if he’s going to have his full role. Finally, Javonte Williams at 1.8x is playable as it would become an absolute smash play (better than Herbert) if Melvin Gordon is ruled out. With this being a late game, I’m going to try to be overweight on Williams going into the day, and hope we get MG3 ruled out after the early games start, to lower his ownership. 

Wide Receiver:

Mike Williams is my top projected wide receiver of the week as he’s been stuck at a 1.4x multiplier despite multiple massive games (Keenan Allen, despite worse performances all season, is at 1.15x!). Jakobi Meyers is another useful option at 1.65x in a game in which we can expect the Patriots to pass a lot. Terry McLaurin at 1.3x will also be highly popular in that KC/WAS game (assuming he plays), while Kadarius Toney’s multiplier stayed all the way down at 1.85x after a huge week. Davante Adams is just 1x but he still has 40 point upside and he rounds out the list of who I think will be the most popular wide receivers. As always, I want to stack my wide receivers where I can, and so for all of the quarterbacks that I mentioned above, I will include their wide receivers. I’ll also list some WRs I’m comfortable playing solo without any sort of game stack (in addition to the guys noted above):

  • Tyreek Hill (just massive upside, even at 1.05x – he’s already broken the slate twice in five weeks).
  • Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, as the Bengals just line up so well against the woeful Lions defense.
  • Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods as the Rams have one of the highest team totals on the slate but individually these only project as “ok” which should significantly reduce ownership.
  • Brandin Cooks, because the Texans are almost certainly going to throw to him a ton, the Colts secondary is bleh, and a 1.45x multiplier is rare for a guy with his kind of talent and volume.
  • Michael Pittman, because it’s hard to find WR1s with 1.6x multipliers in cupcake matchups.
  • Rondale Moore, because a 1.85x multiplier is just incredibly sexy, we know he’s talented, and Maxx Williams being out should open up more 4-wide sets (newly acquired Zach Ertz isn’t eligible to play this weekend)
  • Darnell Mooney, who is leading the Bears receivers in targets and has a 1.7x multiplier in a game in which they are almost certainly going to need to throw a lot. Green Bay’s top cornerback is out, and he also offers fantastic leverage on Khalil Herbert. 
  • Also note that Terry McLaurin may miss this game, which would boost all other pass-catchers on the Washington offense. Ricky Seals-Jones would become a MUCH stronger play, McKissic would enter the conversation, and whoever starts at WR would have a lot of upside at multipliers going from 1.85x (Adam Humphries) all the way up to 2x.

Tight End:

I feel like I haven’t really “hit” on tight end since Week 1, ugh. Time to get back to it. Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are the top projected options, both are solid and both will come with significant ownership. I’m fine with either, but will also include tight ends in my QB stacks (always a strategy I utilize), as well as getting some exposure to these folks regardless of game stack:

  • Noah Fant at 1.6x in a good matchup, and with Albert Okwuegbunam on IR.
  • Darren Waller at 1.25x which is lower than normal for him and he still has explosion games even if we haven’t seen one for a few weeks.
  • Dalton Schultz at 1.65x who looks to have taken over the primary TE role in the Dallas offense.
  • Ricky Seals-Jones at 1.85x who is in the Logan Thomas role, playing every single snap. He saw nine targets last week and he’s in the best game environment. 
  • Tyler Higbee at 1.65x in a full-time role on one of the highest total teams on the slate

Overall Strategy

On salary cap sites, when we look at stacks, we need to consider not just overall projection/ceiling but also salary. Stacking Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is almost always a strong play in a vacuum, but they’re so expensive, even if they all have good games, you may not be able to build a tournament winning roster around them. On Superdraft, it’s a similar dynamic. We need to consider multiplier adjusted ceiling and what it would take for each stack to put up tourney viable scores. Similar to the Chiefs example, stacking Rodgers to Davante Adams on Superdraft isn’t a play that couldn’t win you a tournament, but you would need massive ceiling performances at their multipliers. Same with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. As always, it’s okay to have some lower-multiplier plays on your rosters but make sure you’re only using a few. If you have a Rodgers to Adams stack, I probably wouldn’t want to use many other low-multiplier plays on that roster. On the other hand, some higher-multiplier options make for easy stackability. Here are some game stacks I want to build around this week:

  • Burrow to Higgins or Chase, with Swift coming back or even some modest exposure to Detroit WRs
  • Wentz to Pittman, with Cooks coming back, which I would not force in every Wentz roster, but would want in the majority
  • Stafford to any of his receivers, with Toney as a great bring back (and Shepherd as a viable one if he plays)
  • Herbert to Mike Williams, maybe even including Jared Cook (or Donald Parham!), with Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews coming back.
  • Lamar to Brown or Andrews, with Williams or Ekeler coming back
  • Fields to Mooney with Davante as a solid bring back (similarly to Cooks, I wouldn’t force this)
  • Heinicke to McLaurin or Seals-Jones, with Kelce, Hill, or Darrel Williams coming back. This is likely to be the most popular overall stack, I’m guessing, but it’s a solid one
  • Mac Jones to Jakobi Meyers. I don’t really love the Dallas bring backs at their multipliers, and I’m happy to play this one naked, but would mix in some Schultz on a few of these rosters

Go get some overlay!