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SuperDraft Strategy 4.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Welcome to Week 4 on Superdraft and they still have a $250k GPP, which is just awesome. Last week’s big tourney only got to 9,438 entries out of 11,500, meaning the overlay was significant. They collected $236k in entry fees and paid out $250k so not only was it rake-free, there was even some actual cash overlay on top of that. Again, this is one of the best opportunities out there! Overlay is massively +EV to target and we should be chasing it wherever we can.

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

As always I’m going to be targeting upside here with multipliers (sorry, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray). Somewhat bafflingly, Josh Allen has a 1.2x multiplier this week, which feels bonkers to me. He’s my overall top QB play on the slate and I expect he will be very highly owned. I’m okay eating chalk at QB, though. Jalen Hurts, despite a horrible performance last week, is still entirely viable at 1.3x. The higher-multiplier QBs that I want to take shots on are Taylor Heinicke, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, and Baker Mayfield, all with 1.45x or greater multipliers and all in solid matchups. If you want to play someone like Dak Prescott or Matthew Stafford in a game stack, I wouldn’t say you’re wrong, but personally, I’m shooting for more upside with multipliers.

Running Back:

At running back, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are basically checked off my list. I just can’t play Henry with a 1x multiplier, while Dalvin at 1.1x with his pass game role is more tempting but the matchup is a really tough one. However, I am willing to play Alvin Kamara as the clear engine of his offense, and a 1.15x multiplier is not generous but it’s in the “fine” category. As always, I’m focused in the 1.3x and higher group for most of my running back exposure. I love Najee Harris (1.45x despite a huge game last week), Chuba Hubbard (1.7x and likely to be popular filling in for CMC), Chris Carson (1.45x), Elijah Mitchell (1.7x, and I expect he gets more work than Trey Sermon, though Sermon is also a fine play as well at 1.75x if you want to bet the workload favors him), DeAndre Swift (1.45x), and Antonio Gibson (1.4x). Those are my core guys. I’m okay mixing in some higher risk options as well, like Ezekiel Elliott, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Jonathan Taylor, and David Montgomery.

Wide Receiver:

Give me all the variance! Guys like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp have really strong raw projections, and at this position, they still have meaningful ceilings, but I will have a “max 1” rule on that trio.

In the mid-tier, I want a lot of CeeDee Lamb (1.35x), Amari Cooper (1.3x), D.J. Moore (1.4x), Robby Anderson (1.45x), Terry McLaurin (1.35x), Calvin Ridley (1.2x), Deebo Samuel (1.35x), Brandon Aiyuk (1.55x), all the Bills, Brandin Cooks (1.45x), the Seattle guys and the Vikings wideouts. Dumpster diving at the really high multipliers doesn’t look as attractive to me as it did last week, though I would not blame anyone for taking shots on guys like Rondale Moore, Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, or Marquez Callaway.

Tight End:

I keep saying I’m happy to get 20 points at tight end and that hasn’t really changed, so I’m totally fine just playing Travis Kelce. My player pool here is basically Kelce, George Kittle (1.4x), T.J. Hockenson (1.4x), Kyle Pitts (1.6x), and maybe a smidge of Logan Thomas (1.55x) and Tyler Higbee (1.65x). I’m not interested in trying to chase outlier performances here. For the most part, I will be happy with Kelce or one of these other established studs.

Overall Strategy:

If you look through the list of players, a couple of stacks really come together:

  • Darnold with Moore or Anderson, and then Lamb or Amari coming back. This is the fourth highest total game of the week and we get some great multipliers here.
  • Hurts either naked or with one of his receivers, and then Kelce or Hill coming back. Second highest total game of the week, and while the KC multipliers aren’t great, the Philly ones are fantastic.
  • I’ll always pick on Atlanta, and Heinicke with McLaurin offers a lot of upside at their respective multipliers. Pitts makes a nice bring-back here.
  • Justin Fields to Darnell Mooney sounds terrifying (and it is), but I’ll do a couple of those with Swift or Hockenson coming back.
  • Stacks without their QB are entirely viable on Superdraft. I think you can stack up the Rams/Cardinals game with higher-multiplier options and just leave the QBs off. I think you can do the same with Seattle/49ers or Browns/Vikings (though I do want some Mayfield). The idea here is that a receiver, or even two (at higher multipliers) can have really big games on Superdraft without a much lower multiplier quarterback coming along with them. If Russ Wilson throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, that’s only about 30 Superdraft points at his 1.15 multiplier (most weeks we see multiple QBs get to 35+), but that could easily support a huge performance from Lockett, Metcalf, or even both of them if it’s distributed the right way. Same with Arizona, which has Kyler Murray at just a 1x, but many of his receivers at extremely favorable multipliers.

When thinking about stacking on Superdraft, I want to see realistic paths for my QB to get to 35+ points and my RBs/WRs around 30+ points at their multipliers. At TE, I’m happy with around 20. I try to sit back and think “what would it take for this stack to get there?” This basically rules out a Mahomes/Hill stack for me. Mahomes would need something like 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Could he get there? Yeah, I mean he’s Patrick Mahomes. But the odds are incredibly low. For Heinicke/McLaurin, if Heinicke throws for 250/3 and adds 30 rushing yards, that’s 25 raw points, which becomes 40 Superdraft points at his 1.65x multiplier. If McLaurin goes, say, 8/100/1, that gets him to about 30 with his 1.35x multiplier. Does that seem reasonable? It’s a pretty strong performance for Heinicke, but I’d argue it’s more likely than a 400 yard, 5 touchdown game from Mahomes. This is really the “art” to Superdraft: balancing the best plays (from a raw points projection) with the multipliers to figure out who the best plays are from a multiplier-adjusted perspective; then, figuring out how to correlate effectively while taking the multipliers into account. 

Now go chase some overlay!