Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 3.21.bp

BY XANDAMERE

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Welcome to Week 3 and a look at tournament play on Superdraft. Superdraft is a relatively new site that is making an aggressive push in the DFS space, and they’re aggressively trying to acquire customers in the space, which means they’re putting out big tournaments that aren’t filling. That means overlay, one of the most +EV things we can find in DFS! Despite not filling in either Week 1 or Week 2, their main tournament is still the same size for Week 3, and we can be awfully certain it will overlay this week as well.

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

As always, I’m going to look for higher multipliers here. With QB scoring so tightly clustered, it makes sense to take advantage of multipliers in tournaments in search of spiked weeks. This means Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are off my list completely. However, I am willing to target the high end here as we have some top-end QBs with decent multipliers, with Lamar Jackson at 1.15x and Josh Allen at 1.2x, who are possible standalone options. I also want to use a lot of Russ Wilson at 1.15x, Justin Herbert at 1.25x, Tom Brady at 1.25x, Matt Stafford at 1.3x, and Kirk Cousins at 1.35x, as all of those guys are in very attractive game environments that are great for stacking as well as having strong multipliers themselves. Farther down the list, I like Daniel Jones with his rushing upside and in a great matchup at 1.55x. Justin Fields at a whopping 1.7x is sure to be popular in his first career start but is also a very strong play.

Running Back:

At running back, I’m okay playing one of Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, as they both still have ceilings of 30+ despite no real multiplier bonus. I would not play both. Most of my RB exposure, as always, is going to be searching for ceilings games that can also be paired with strong multipliers. I’m targeting Jonathan Taylor (1.3x), Austin Ekeler (1.35x), Saquon Barkley (1.35x), Joe Mixon (1.35x), Najee Harris (1.4x), Kenyan Drake if Josh Jacobs is out (1.4x), Chris Carson (1.4x), and Chase Edmonds (1.55x). We also may get some RB “value” here based on injury situations, with the most likely looking to be Alexander Mattison at 1.75x if Cook is out. If Cook misses I will be all over Mattison at that multiplier.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I want to correlate here as well, and embrace a lot of variance with high-multiplier guys at strong multipliers. At the high end, I think you can still play one of Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, or Tyler Lockett. I wouldn’t want more than one of these plays, but we know they all have ceilings that are strong enough to be viable without huge multipliers.

In the mid-tier, Mike Evans (1.25x) and Chris Godwin (1.3x) are in play in the highest-total game of the week, as is Robert Woods (1.3x) coming back the other way. I’m okay going back to the well on Courtland Sutton (1.35x and who feels like a bad process miss last week) as the new WR1 in Denver with Jerry Jeudy out. I’ll happily stack any of the Giants receivers with Daniel Jones. D.J. Chark is interesting at 1.45x, as while he has yet to have a big game, he’s among the NFL leaders in air yards.

At the high-multiplier tier of 1.5x or greater, this is where you can really hit some ceiling games by taking on volatile options. Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, Mike Williams, Henry Ruggs, Zack Pascal, Darnell Mooney, Van Jefferson, K.J. Hamler, Marquez Callaway, Rondale Moore, Michael Pittman, and K.J. Osborn are all plays that have some really strong ceilings with their extreme multipliers.

Tight End:

At tight end, I’m generally wanting to limit variance a bit because very few TEs in the league have realistic ceilings of 20+ “real” points, and a “cheap” TE getting 10-15 points feels like it’s taking on more risk than I want for relatively low ceilings. My entire TE player pool this week is going to be Travis Kelce (1x), Darren Waller (1.3x), Mark Andrews (1.35x), T.J. Hockenson (1.4x), Rob Gronkowski (1.5x), Kyle Pitts (1.55x), and Tyler Higbee (1.65x). My favorite play here, and the guy who I expect to have the highest ownership, is Waller. At a 1.3x multiplier, Waller is going to project as an absolutely fantastic play (and he is), so I only want to have other TEs who I could see scoring 15-20 raw points, and thus have at least a reasonable chance of outsourcing Waller once their multipliers are applied.

Overall Strategy:

If we look at the rest of the content on OWS this week, we can see that when we look at the games themselves, LAR/TB and SEA/MIN look like the clear top games to stack this week. But, for the most part, those teams have relatively modest multipliers. We can still invest in those games, but I’d be cautious of double-stacking multiple low-multiplier plays (i.e. I wouldn’t do a game stack with Brady, Evans, Godwin, and Kupp coming back). I would want to mix in higher-multiplier guys so I’d prefer a stack of something like Brady, Evans, and Gronk with Jefferson coming back. When there are only so many fantasy points to go around in a single game, it doesn’t make sense to me to stack multiple low-multiplier receivers, as it’s just really tough for them to both hit ceiling performances in the same game. Multiplier attractiveness changes the stacking situation on Superdraft and makes ATL/NYG a lot more attractive than it is on other sites. I love targeting game stacks when the multiplier means that a “good game” could you really get you there on Superdraft, while on other sites it would not result in the kind of ceiling outcomes you need for a tournament. For example, a stack of Daniel Jones with one or two of his high-multiplier receivers and Kyle Pitts coming back has an enormous amount of ceiling on Superdraft.