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Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 18.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 18 is finally here and it’s the end of the regular season. It’s always a sad day for me, but there’s still money to be won! There’s still overlay on Superdraft every week, so if you aren’t playing there, why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Week 18 Overview:

This is the wildest week of the year as we have teams that will sit guys entirely (the Bengals, maybe the Eagles, maybe the Packers) and others that will only play their starters for a little bit (perhaps even just a single drive) before handing things over to backups (the Packers are more likely to be in this bucket), and then a few others that need to win but are in blowout matchups and might pull back, if they get up big early (Colts, Bills). Because of Superdraft’s scoring format, most of these backups have massive multipliers, which makes this week especially unique over here.

Quarterback:

Two backup QBs have the top projections thanks to 1.8x multipliers, as Brandon Allen and Case Keenum face off against each other in the same game. I’m okay with these guys because just a couple of touchdowns and 200 passing yards can get them to 30 or so points. Of the “real” quarterbacks on the slate, Taysom Hill is my favorite, as he has a 1.3x multiplier and he possesses immense upside in a game the Saints need to win. Tyler Huntley is in play if Lamar sits again.

Running Back:

Jonathan Taylor owns the highest projection once again, but if he’s really having a massive performance that also means the Colts are smashing, and I don’t see them really pushing him if they’re up by multiple scores. My favorite RB play is Samaje Perine with a juicy 1.8x multiplier, followed by D’Onta Foreman at 1.45x, Najee Harris at 1.2x, and Devin Singletary at 1.4x. This is also a week with a lot of uncertainty: I think you can take shots at A.J. Dillon (as the Packers might barely play Aaron Jones) or even Patrick Taylor if you think the Packers might rest both Jones and Dillon. It’s entirely possible (perhaps even likely) that we’ll get more news on potential rest spots that put more guys into play by Sunday morning.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • At a high level, it’s hard for me to get on board with low-multiplier receiver options because there are going to be so many guys at really high multipliers. SOME of those guys will have big games. If you want to start with Cooper Kupp or Justin Jefferson, I won’t say you’re wrong to do so – they’ve both shown massive ceilings – but I think those are spots I’m going to be underweight on this week.
  • Chase Claypool at 1.45x is awfully attractive with target hog Diontae Johnson missing (update: Diontae was actived off the COVID list).
  • A.J. Brown is one of the NFL’s best receivers and this is a game the Titans really want to win. Tennessee focuses on their run game, of course, but that doesn’t lower Brown’s ceiling – just his odds of hitting it.
  • Cyril Grayson is my favorite high multiplier receiver. Antonio Brown is gone, Mike Evans might not play the full game, Grayson has played 64% or more of the snaps the past two weeks and has earned Tom Brady’s trust with eight targets last week. At a 2x multiplier his ceiling is pretty huge.

Tight End:

Mark Andrews. The answer is always . . . well, okay, often . . . Mark Andrews. I also really like Zach Ertz, who has been a target hog for Arizona with no DeAndre Hopkins. Dawson Knox has shown a massive ceiling, though with a scary floor.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” plays look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Ben Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • Bengals/Browns has the two highest-projected quarterbacks on the slate and my favorite running back. The Bengals are also likely to run out some backup receivers (hopefully we’ll get more clarity on this before Sunday), who should all come at 1.8x or higher multipliers.
  • While I probably won’t be playing any Josh Allen, I do want exposure to Bills skill position players as they’re one of the highest-total teams on the slate, they’re highly motivated to win, and they’re playing the Jets. Always target teams playing the Jets.
  • The Packers are going up against a pretty mediocre Lions defense and they’re highly likely to be resting guys, meaning we get good value in a good matchup. This one will depend on what news we get about Packers player usage. Some very clear value could open up, or we might get no news and we just have to decide if we want to take shots here or not with no clarity around roles.