Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 17.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

It’s Week 17, and we’re closing in on the end of the regular season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP SIX times now, and I’m determined to do it this year. There’s still overlay on Superdraft every week, so if you aren’t playing there, why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Week 17 Overview:

Before I dig into the positions, I just want to note that similar to the past couple of weeks, this week is WILD with uncertainty. There are so many players being put on the COVID list, and some who might unexpectedly test out of it and be able to play (like Carson Wentz) so it’s quite likely that even though I’m writing this on Friday, the landscape of the slate could change significantly by Sunday morning. Be ready to adjust!

Quarterback:

Multipliers make for goofy quarterback usage on Superdraft, but we need to embrace it (or at least consider embracing it). My highest projected quarterback is Trey Lance, who is a talented prospect but who was also kind of a disaster in his first and only start. That said, because of his rushing ability, “disaster” was still 15.58 fantasy points, which with a 1.65x multiplier ain’t half bad. Against Houston, I’m willing to go here. Next up is Sam Ehlinger, who may (or may not) fill in for Carson Wentz this week at a 1.85x multiplier. But we don’t know here, because new testing rules mean Wentz might be able to get cleared in time. Uncertainty! I’m also interested in Nick Foles, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, and Kyler Murray. All of them (except Foles) have lower multipliers, but all of them also have 30+ raw point ceilings in them, which don’t need super high multipliers to pay off.

Running Back:

My highest projected running back is Jonathan Taylor, who out-projects the field by over two full points despite a 1x multiplier. Sure, I’m on board with Taylor, he’s been absolutely smashing. Sony Michel should continue to see 20+ touches every game with no Darrell Henderson, and Joe Mixon has the best matchup against the Chiefs. They are my favorite low-multiplier backs aside from Taylor. Rex Burkhead is going to project well based on last week and he’s still at a juicy 1.7x multiplier, but just remember that he ran into the perfect game script with Houston (surprisingly) playing from ahead all game. Now he’s on the road against a much tougher run defense. Personally, I’m staying away here. I will, however, play whoever the 49ers primary back is on the other side of this game. RB is tough this week so my pool is likely pretty small, but I’m also interested in some sprinkles of DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary (assuming only 1 other active RB for the Bills), and possibly Derrick Gore (Gore has a fat 2x multiplier and assuming CEH misses, he should have a split role with Darrel Williams – at a 2x he can pay that off).

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Cooper Kupp is still hanging around with a 1x multiplier, and he’s still my top-projected wide receiver. Hard to avoid this dude.
  • A.J. Brown has a tough matchup here but should see plenty of volume and is plenty talented.
  • Antonio Brown is a smash if Mike Evans misses again. If Evans plays, Brown is still a viable play, but I’d be much lower on him (I also expect he would still be very chalky). 
  • Tee Higgins is still at a 1.55x multiplier, which I just don’t get at all. He’s an absolutely elite receiver, he has three games of 25+ raw fantasy points in his last five, but his multiplier isn’t moving. 
  • Stef Diggs is normally not at a 1.2x multiplier. I’ll bite here in a great matchup.
  • Jaylen Waddle has been seeing tremendous volume and has established himself as the Dolphins number one receiver.
  • I wish Amari Cooper had a slightly higher multiplier than 1.3x, but at home in the highest total game of the week, I’m still in (Lamb and Gallup too, but Amari’s my favorite of them).
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown appears to be completely legitimate and is breaking out with 11+ targets in each of his last four games. In a matchup against a mediocre Seattle secondary and at a 1.4x multiplier, I’m on him.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce being on the slate means he has a 1x multiplier, which kind of shoves every other tight end’s multiplier downwards. I’ll play Kelce, I’ll play Gronk (especially if Evans is out), I’ll play Mark Andrews, I’ll play George Kittle, but the guys I’m really fixated on this week are Kyle Pitts and Zach Ertz. Pitts has been having an absolute elite rookie season for a tight end, but he just hasn’t been getting the touchdowns. There’s risk here against a really good Buffalo defense, but a 1.4x multiplier makes me feel the risk is worth it. Ertz gets me exposure to the highest-total game of the week at what I expect will be modest ownership. One key thing about tight end this week, though, is that there’s a lot of clustering. I have a whole big pile of dudes (10, in fact) all projected within two points of each other. There aren’t any clear stand-out plays, really, so it kind of feels like a “play whoever you want” week at tight end (or, correlate your tight end position with your game stack, which is what I usually try to do anyhow).

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” plays look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Ben Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • After two weeks of relatively yucky games, this week we get two games with totals over 50, with ARI/DAL and KC/CIN. The next highest-total game is a full 5.5 points lower. I want to stack these two a lot, and even my rosters that don’t have a QB from these games are likely to still have exposure via the skill position players.
  • My highest projected quarterback is Trey Lance but the 49ers pass-catchers don’t have very attractive multipliers and Lance gets a ton of his value via rushing. I’ll pair Lance with Kittle in some rosters, but in most of them I’ll just run him naked. 
  • I always like picking on the Jets and I feel like Brady stacks are in play, with or without a bring back (we know the Bucs are one of the teams that will continue to be aggressive late into the game even if their opponent isn’t pushing them). 
  • The game doesn’t have a super high total, but I still want a bit of exposure to Russell Wilson stacks with Amon-Ra or Swift coming back. 
  • There aren’t many high-multiplier stacks that really stick out a ton to me. I think you can play Ehlinger with Pittman, I think you can play Foles with Mooney or Kmet, but neither of those feel like really core stacks to me and the bring backs aren’t super attractive. I think I’m likely to have most of my exposure to the two highest-total games.