Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 16.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

It’s Week 16, and we’re closing in on the end of the regular season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP SIX times now after a third-place finish last week, and I’m determined to do it this year. Butttt, I’m taking this week off so it won’t be Week 16 . . . but maybe it could be you! There’s still overlay on Superdraft every week, so if you aren’t playing there, why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Week 16 Overview:

Before I dig into the positions, I just want to note that similarly to last week, this week is WILD with uncertainty. There are soooo many players being put on the COVID list and it’s quite likely that even though I’m writing this on Friday, the landscape of the slate could change significantly by Sunday morning. Be ready to adjust!

Quarterback:

I’m always happy when my highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are actually good overall plays and not some dude like Jake Fromm. Phew. This week, my top QBs are Justin Herbert with a 1.2x multiplier (pretty awesome considering the Chargers have the highest team total on the slate), Tyler Huntley (still at 1.45x coming off of his huge game last week), and Jalen Hurts (always in play because of his elite rushing upside). I’m also interested in having some tournament exposure to Drew Lock at 1.65x (he’s high risk but also a gunslinger with some upside), Russell Wilson at 1.3x, and then Nick Foles at a whopping 1.9x going up against one of the league’s weaker secondaries. There’s also some guy named Tim Boyle starting for Detroit this week at a 1.8x multiplier against the Falcons, which I think is at least worth some consideration if you’re multi-entering.

Running Back:

The “best RB plays” are pretty clear this week. Justin Jackson has a 1.65x multiplier against the Texans with Austin Ekeler out. Ronald Jones is at 1.4x against Carolina with no Leonard Fournette. Alexander Mattison has seen absolutely massive workloads when Dalvin Cook has missed games, but a 1.2x multiplier is only decent, especially going up against a really strong Rams defense. I’d prefer Joe Mixon at 1.2x, if dipping my toes into the lower-multiplier area (or James Robinson at 1.15x against the atrocious Jets D). But there’s a lot of uncertainty here, too. I think you could take shots on guys like Ameer Abdullah at 1.85x and hope he gets more work as the pass-catching back going up against the Bucs. There’s also more value that could open up: Miles Sanders is questionable for the Eagles, Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out and Damien Harris is questionable for the Patriots.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Cooper Kupp is still hanging around with a 1x multiplier, and he’s still my top-projected wide receiver. Hard to avoid this dude.
  • DJ Moore is at 1.35x against one of the biggest pass funnel secondaries in the NFL.
  • Tee Higgins is still at a rather egregious 1.55x multiplier in a great matchup against a banged-up Ravens defense.
  • Diontae Johnson at 1.35x still projects as one of the highest-volume receivers on the slate.
  • On the riskier side, Nico Collins should be the WR1 for the Texans and has a juicy 2x multiplier with no Brandin Cooks. 
  • Antonio Brown was “priced up” to a 1.2x multiplier, but he should still be the WR1 for one of the highest-scoring and highest pass rate offenses in the league.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce being on the slate means he has a 1x multiplier, which kind of shoves every other tight end’s multiplier downwards. Mark Andrews was at 1x last week, but he’s 1.15 this week, and so on down the line. I think it’s reasonable to play Kelce as he’s one of the few tight ends who has a ceiling of 30+ raw points. I also really like Rob Gronkowski with the Bucs missing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans; Dallas Goedert at 1.3x as the primary receiver for the Eagles; and Mark Andrews makes a great bring-back in BAL/CIN stacks. Kyle Pitts is also hanging out at 1.4x and this is one of the best matchups he’s going to have all year . . . surely, he has to have a ceiling game SOMETIME, right?

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Jake Fromm look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Ben Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • This is a week of pretty gross games. There are no games with totals over 50 and just two with totals over 45 (LAR/MIN and PIT/KC). Those games don’t feel super stackable to me as they’re mostly filled with lower-multiplier plays, though I don’t think you’re crazy if you did something like, I don’t know, Matt Stafford with Kupp and then one higher-multiplier receiver. 
  • My highest projected quarterback is Justin Herbert, who isn’t very stackable. I think you could play Herbert with Justin Jackson to get all the Chargers touchdowns, but personally, I would rather look for a spot where I could feel better about stacking the QB with a pass-catcher or two. 
  • My overall favorite game to stack is BAL/CIN. It’s a close spread, the Bengals put up 41 points last time in this matchup, Tyler Huntley has certainly looked capable as a backup QB, and we have some solid multipliers on the skill position players (especially Marquise Brown and Tee Higgins). 
  • I also like Drew Lock stacks (yuck, did I really say that), as Lock has a nice 1.65x multiplier and his receivers all have very attractive multipliers as well. This is a high risk one, but Lock will chuck it downfield, which can sometimes lead to multiple turnovers, but can also lead to long touchdowns.
  • Similarly, and I want to throw up writing this, but I think you can stack the Jags/Jets game a bit (if I were doing 150 this week, I’d probably have 5-10 stacks of this game). Both Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are aggressive QBs (especially Wilson), both have high multipliers, and their pass-catching groups are filled with high multipliers as well. 
  • Overall, this is a week without a lot of great game environments. We have to make the best of what we’ve got, but I still prefer stacking to trying to get each individual piece of a roster “right” in an uncorrelated way.