Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 15.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 15 and we’re closing in on the end of the regular season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP five times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there….why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Week 15 Overview:

Before I dig into the positions, I just want to note that this week is WILD with uncertainty. There are soooo many players being put on the Covid list and it’s quite likely that even though I’m writing this on Friday, the landscape of the slate could change significantly by Sunday morning. Be ready to adjust!

Quarterback:

I’m always happy when my highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are actually good overall plays and not some dude like Jake Fromm. Phew. This week my top QBs are actual capable NFL quarterbacks! Tua Tagovailoa leads the way against the miserable Jets, with Jalen Hurts at a 1.25x multiplier coming in second. Aaron Rodgers at 1.25x feels too low for him, as does Matthew Stafford at 1.2x. Of the higher-multiplier quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo, at 1.55x and 1.5x respectively, have solid team totals in decent matchups.

Running Back:

Oh man, this is where we get into the land of uncertainty. Najee Harris is my highest projected back, but at a 1.1x multiplier, I don’t love the ceiling here in a tough matchup with a low total. James Conner is my favorite RB play (assuming that Chase Edmunds isn’t activated), with Elijah Mitchell a close second assuming that he plays (and if he doesn’t I’ll happily play Jeff Wilson or whoever the 49ers lead back is). We have uncertain RB situations with the Titans and the Lions, with timeshares that we could get some clarity on before Sunday (note that Craig Reynolds played a lot for Detroit last week, though he isn’t being projected for much in most places). Overall, the big question for me at running back is: do I want to play it safe with lower-multiplier backs whose roles I can feel highly confident in, or target more upside with backs in uncertain situations but higher multipliers? On a week with mostly low total games, I think I’m leaning more towards the former. Unless something really clear emerges, I think I want to primarily target the guys with strong roles where I know they’re going to touch the ball a lot (Conner, Mitchell, Darrell Henderson or Sony Michel, Mixon, Robinson primarily).

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Despite just a 1x multiplier, Cooper Kupp is my highest projected receiver by almost two full points. Wow. Yeah, I’ll play him.
  • Diontae Johnson finally saw a major ceiling performance, he sees metric boatloads of volume, the matchup favors an aerial attack, and his multiplier is still sitting at a juicy 1.4x.
  • DK Metcalf is at a 1.35x multiplier with no Tyler Lockett. 
  • Tee Higgins is, inexplicably, at a 1.55x multiplier despite leading his team in targets on the season.
  • DeVante Parker makes a great stacking partner with Tua at 1.55x against the miserable Jets.

Tight End:

We know the deal at tight end by now. I’ll play George Kittle and Mark Andrews at 1x multipliers because no other tight ends really have 30+ raw point ceilings. Dallas Goedert is my overall favorite tight end play on the slate because his raw ceiling isn’t all that much lower than Kittle and Andrews and he has a nice 1.3x multiplier. Other than that, I hate this position and will use it only in game stacks.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Jake Fromm look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • This is a week of pretty gross games. The highest total on the slate is just 47.5 (ARI @ DET), but almost all of the points are on the Cards side. ATL @ SF is next, with almost all the points on the 49ers side. The highest total game with a spread under five points is SEA @ LAR with a whopping 45 point total. 
  • With Tua as my highest projected quarterback and high-multiplier pass catchers to stack with him (Parker, Gesicki, and then thinner WR2 plays like Wilson or Hollins), this is my favorite game to attack. I don’t think you need a Jet coming back, but Jamison Crowder at 1.6x is certainly playable, as is Michael Carter coming back from injury. 
  • Next up for me is WAS/PHI. I don’t think you need a Washington player, and you can play Hurts naked, but I expect he’ll be quite highly owned, so stacking him with Goedert or Devonta Smith can lower the ownership of the overall lineup. The Washington QB situation is ugly but Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are both still very talented and have upside. 
  • Perhaps the most stackable games are TEN/PIT and SEA/LAR. The Steelers have a condensed offense, which helps offset the low team total, and Julio Jones will get another week as the undisputed WR1 of the Titans. SEA/LAR has two of the best-projected WR plays on the slate and two high-ceiling quarterbacks, which puts it in play, and then you can mix and match other plays (Beckham if active, Jefferson, Swain or Eskridge, etc.). 
  • Overall, this is a week without a lot of great game environments. We have to make the best of what we’ve got, but I still prefer stacking to trying to get each individual piece of a roster “right” in an uncorrelated way.