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Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 14.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 14 and we’re moving towards the end of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

I’m always happy when my highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are actually good overall plays and not some dude like Jake Fromm. Phew. This week, the top projected QBs are led by Cam Newton and Taysom Hill, with massive rushing equity, but there’s also a lot of stackability here as Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and even Josh Allen at 1x rate pretty well. I’m also interested in some of the QBs who just have huge raw ceilings even with lower multipliers like Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, as these guys are highly capable of 30+ point performances in good game environments.

Running Back:

There’s a lot of uncertainty here around injury situations, so I’ll try to pick through that. The highest projected running backs currently are Austin Ekeler and Leonard Fournette (tough matchup for Fournette, but really high team total, home favorite, and a strong role definitely keep him in play). Josh Jacobs is a good option if you believe the Raiders can keep the game close, while Antonio Gibson looks strong if JD McKissic misses another game, and then there are some options that could shoot up the rankings depending on injury situations. Javonte Williams would be an elite play at 1.3x if Melvin Gordon misses another game. The Titans RB situation could give us a good value if we get clarity on roles (and even if we don’t, you can take some shots here: Dontrell Hilliard is still sitting at a 2x multiplier!). The Panthers running back situation is similar, as projections have Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah splitting work, but if one of them ends up seeing 18+ touches, they’re sitting there at beautiful 1.5x and 1.9x multipliers, respectively. If Elijah Mitchell misses for San Francisco, Jeff Wilson at 1.55x would also be extremely attractive.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • If Keenan Allen misses, Mike Williams at 1.4x would be one of the strongest plays on the slate. He’s still fine if Keenan plays, but we know his role is riskier compared to his early-season role, so he wouldn’t be the kind of play I’d want on every roster.
  • Tee Higgins’ multiplier just refuses to budge. He’s still hanging around 1.5x despite leading the Bengals in targets. 
  • Stef Diggs is only at 1.1x, but this is the kind of game environment in which he seems highly likely to see double-digit targets in a non-terrible matchup. 
  • Brandon Aiyuk at 1.4x would be an extremely strong play if Deebo Samuel misses another game.
  • Russell Gage is coming off of two really strong games in a row and is still at a 1.7x multiplier. Since Week 9, Gage has seven or more targets in four of five games. His catch rate is excellent and Atlanta is just really short on playmakers. He’s a scary option but the juicy multiplier makes the risk worth it, to me. 
  • That’s really it for this week. There are a lot of viable receiver plays that you can sprinkle into MME, but those are the ones I feel the strongest about.

Tight End:

The highest projected tight end that I have is . . . Kyle Pitts, which I feel okay about, but not great. He’s an elite talent and at a nice 1.4x multiplier, but he has a nightmare matchup and he’s the guy that defenses have been really keyed in on since Calvin Ridley left the team. Pitts’ best game since Ridley left came in Week 10 against Dallas in which he caught four of seven targets for 60 yards. Not exactly inspiring. You can trust the projections and play him (at likely high ownership), and I wouldn’t argue with you, but personally, this is a spot I want to be underweight on. I’d rather lean on the talent, role, and game environment of guys like Rob Gronkowski at 1.2x, Dawson Knox at 1.7x (!), Mark Andrews at 1.2x, or “Raiders tight end” (depending on if Darren Waller plays or not). Oh, and George Kittle at 1.2x is fine on his own, and I expect would be the best on-paper tight end play on the slate if Deebo Samuel misses another game.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Jake Fromm look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The highest total game is BUF/TB by a pretty wide margin. It’s the only game on the slate with a total over 50, and beats out the next-best game by a full FIVE points. However, the multipliers in this game are low. I’m not sure I want to do a lot of stacking around this game (though I’ll have a bit), but overall the low multipliers mean I’m likely to try to be underweight on this game and hope the production is spread out evenly so that nobody really smashes. The exception here are the tight ends, who both provide significant ceiling at a thin position. 
  • This is a tough slate for stackability, but I think I like 49ers/Bengals as my favorite game. We have good multipliers on some pieces (hi, Higgins and Aiyuk), and there’s a lot of upside here if injury news breaks our way with Deebo, Mitchell, and possibly even Mixon. My ideal situation here is no injury clarity before the morning games lock, and then for some or all of these guys to be ruled out after the early games. If these guys are all still questionable going into the early games, I’m willing to take some risk here and bet that they’re out. 
  • Another game that draws my interest is BAL/CLE. The game only has a 43 point total but we’ve seen these teams significantly exceed expectations in this matchup before (back in 2020). I’m willing to bet on that at what I expect will be relatively modest ownership, and we have high multipliers all over the place here.