Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 13.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 13 and we’re moving towards the end of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

For the first time in a while, the highest projected quarterbacks on Superdraft are not horrible! Justin Herbert, Carson Wentz, and Jalen Hurts lead the way in the projections I’m utilizing, and we can feel pretty good about any of those guys. Taylor Heinicke is next up, and in a strong game environment. I will also happily consider Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow as tournament options.

Running Back:

Again, we have some actual good running backs leading the way in Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Austin Ekeler is also high up the list. As is usually the case, I’m okay rostering one low-multiplier running back, but I generally don’t want multiple as the odds of true ceiling performances at low multipliers are modest. One factor here is that Superdraft did a good job of lowering multipliers on running backs like Alexander Mattison and Jamaal Williams who are stepping into new roles due to injury, so they aren’t just automatic lock plays . . . but 1.3x for Mattison still feels too low (he’s basically Dalvin Cook, who is usually around 1.1x, and the matchup here is fantastic). Antonio Gibson at 1.4x is also very interesting to me if J.D. McKissic is out, as it should result in him picking up more pass-game and two-minute drill work. 

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at 1.4x and 1.35x, respectively, in a great matchup against the Falcons.
  • Michael Pittman as the alpha receiver on the Colts, one of the highest-total teams on the slate, at 1.45x.
  • Jaylen Waddle is still hanging around at 1.4x despite some big volume and strong performances.
  • Brandon Aiyuk with Deebo Samuel out at 1.45x.
  • Diontae Johnson with a massive target floor at 1.4x.
  • That’s really about it. Wide receiving “pricing” (via multipliers) is looking pretty efficient overall, leading to me wanting to focus more on stacks.

Tight End:

Hey, surprise surprise, tight end looks gross. You can play Kittle, Gronk, or Pitts at low multipliers but with hopes of high raw scores. Foster Moreau, who will be chalk on other sites, will probably also be chalk on Superdraft at 1.75x but it’s hard to poke holes here in a strong role (and we’ve seen him in this role once before, and he did well). Dallas Goedert is at 1.3x, which is awfully close to the Pitts/Kittle/Gronk tier, but he’s in a perfect matchup, and we’ve seen 100+ receiving yards from him before. Pat Freiermuth at 1.6x and Zach Ertz at 1.6x round out the tight ends I’m comfortable playing in a vacuum. 

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Mike Glennon look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The best game environments of the week are TB/ATL, LAC/CIN, and WAS/LV. It’s hard for me to want to play Tom Brady at 1x but I love the Bucs skill position players, and I definitely want to be stacking up LAC/CIN and WAS/LV. The Bengals and Raiders skill position players, in particular, have some attractive multipliers that make them easy to stack up.
  • The Colts have one of the highest team totals on the slate and you can access that game with high multipliers by pairing Wentz with Pittman. The Colts are most likely to focus on the run game here (duh), but you can certainly bet on the touchdowns coming from a different path than the field is expecting. 
  • The second-highest team total on the slate belongs to the Rams. Because of low multipliers, neither Matthew Stafford nor Cooper Kupp is projecting especially well, but I’m still okay going there. Stafford passing for 300 and 3 would get him over 30 Superdraft points, while Kupp has shown he can exceed 30 raw points on a fairly consistent basis. Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson have strong ceilings at 1.55x and 1.65x, respectively, with Jefferson looking especially attractive if OBJ ends up missing this game.