Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 12.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 12 and we’re moving towards the end of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

My highest projected quarterbacks . . . wait for it . . . Tyrod Taylor and Zach Wilson. Feels uncomfortable, doesn’t it? But those multipliers are juicy, and both defenses are legit bad. I wouldn’t go here in cash, but for tournaments I’m game. Mac Jones is up there too in the high multiplier world, though I think you’d want a bring-back here for sure as the Patriots are happy to just run the ball forever unless their opponent is pushing them. Of the lower multiplier “better” quarterbacks, Cam Newton, Jalen Hurts, and Carson Wentz all stand out, while I think you can still play Tom Brady even at a 1x multiplier because this just isn’t an amazing slate for QBs and Brady can (fairly easily) put up 30+ raw points here with a high margin of safety.

Running Back:

CMC is always in play. We also have a lot of running backs with low multipliers: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley, and Darrell Henderson all check-in at 1.2 or below. I’d be comfortable playing these guys, but I’d set a max 1 per roster rule for all of them. Where things get interesting is with the higher multiplier guys. Cordarelle Patterson is still sitting at 1.35x despite multiple ceiling performances this season, and he’s in a great matchup. Javonte Williams at a 1.75x multiplier is way too high in a good matchup, and I’d expect Denver to shift the workload more in his direction as the season continues on (he’s their future, MG3 is the past, etc.). Dontrell Hilliard has a whopping 2x multiplier and saw 17 running back opportunities last week (just be aware there’s some risk here as D’Onta Foreman could retake the lead role). Rex Burkhead at 1.95x against the Jets is interesting, and there’s volatility here in his expected role but the Texans backfield is getting thinned out. Oh, and my overall favorite running back play for tournaments is Ty Johnson at 1.8x, who I think is likely to see the lion’s share of the work in the Jets backfield with Michael Carter out.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are going to be massively owned but they deserve to be, in my opinion. If Evans misses, oh man, I might just lock Godwin on every roster and say “screw ownership.”
  • Diontae Johnson has dipped a bit to a 1.4x multiplier and still sees enormous volume.
  • DJ Moore is one of the most talented wideouts in the NFL, and a 1.35x multiplier is too high for him.
  • Michael Pittman is the focal point of the Colts passing attack and should see a ton of volume in this matchup where they’re likely to struggle to run the ball, and yet he still has a 1.45x multiplier.
  • Elijah Moore seems to be breaking out in a big way and I don’t mind chasing it in a good matchup at a 1.5x multiplier.

Tight End:

As always, tight end is icky. George Kittle and Kyle Pitts have crummy multipliers but still have 20+ point raw ceilings and are entirely viable here. Rob Gronkowski still falls in the area of viability as well, but his 1.25x multiplier is not especially attractive to me here as it’s too close to Pitts (plus I play on multiple sites, so I’ll get my Gronk exposure elsewhere). Dan Arnold is my favorite high-multiplier tight end as his role has been extremely strong ever since getting to Jacksonville.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Myles Gaskin look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The best game environments of the week are TB/IND, MIN/SF, LAC/DEN, and LAR/GB. All of those games have a fair number of strong multiplier options as well (less so in the Rams/Packers game, but the others, yes), and I’m happy to stack any of them. 
  • It feels gross, but the two highest-projected quarterbacks come from the same game (HOU/NYJ). It feels ugly, but with solid other options around them with good multipliers (all the Jets receivers, Brandin Cooks, Ty Johnson, Rex Burkhead), I do want to build around this game on a fair percentage of my rosters. 
  • Mac Jones with a pass-catcher or two, and Hilliard (or Foreman for the more risk-embracing) is a really high upside start to a roster.