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SuperDraft Strategy 11.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 11 and we’re past the halfway mark of the NFL season (sigh). I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

My highest projected quarterbacks are tightly clustered, with Jalen Hurts (1.4x), Tua Tagovailoa (1.55x), Justin Fields (1.7x), Lamar Jackson (1.15x), and Josh Allen (1.05x) all very close together. I’ll be playing all of these guys, but the safest options are the elite QBs, with Tua and Fields representing more risk/reward plays. I think Dak and Mahomes are viable in game stacks of their game despite low multipliers, but I don’t want a ton of exposure here. Cam Newton at 1.45x is “underpriced” as he is across the rest of the industry in a positive matchup and with great rushing upside. I expect him to settle around 1.3x later in the season. Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, and Ryan Tannehill round out my QB pool, all at 1.3x multipliers with strong game environments and/or team totals. 

Running Back:

While the other sites didn’t price up AJ Dillon sufficiently, Superdraft has him at a 1.15 multiplier, hanging around near guys like Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook. That has me mostly off of him (I like him, and he has a great ceiling, but I’ll get my exposure to him on other sites). I’m totally fine playing CMC at a 1x multiplier because so few running backs have a 20-point floor. D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, and Miles Gaskin all have a good combination of matchup and upside, and I think Darrel Williams at a 1.55x multiplier is viable if CEH doesn’t play, as is Mark Ingram at 1.45x if no Kamara. D’Onta Foreman is an interesting play at 1.8x. He won’t pop in projections because he’s being projected in a split role with Adrian Peterson, but he’s certainly looked better so far, and if the work skews his way, he could put up a really big game at a big multiplier and low ownership. 

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • AJ Brown is too good of a receiver (and in too good of a matchup) to have a 1.3x multiplier.
  • Jaylen Waddle is a very safe play at 1.55x with a high-volume role and in an elite matchup.
  • Both Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase are in the floating play pool for me (and I also want to stack this game)
  • CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both have 1.3x multipliers in the best game environment of the week. I’m on board.
  • Emmanuel Sanders at 1.65x against a pass-funnel defense. He goes from a strong play to an elite one if Cole Beasley misses.
  • Tyreek Hill can be played anywhere, always, as despite the low multiplier he has a raw point ceiling well over 40 points.
  • Finally, while the multiplier is low on Deebo Samuel at 1.2x, his rushing role (lol) has been expanding and he has massive after-catch upside against an atrocious defense.

Tight End:

Tight end, as always, is icky. You can take Travis Kelce and hope for a 25 point game in a week when the rest of the tight ends mostly fail, and I think that’s fine. I also really like Darren Waller as one of the few TEs who can challenge Kelce for raw ceiling, and here he gets help with a 1.2x multiplier. In the higher multiplier bucket: I like Dallas Goedert at 1.45x in a good matchup, and I like T.J. Hockenson at 1.5x as the best weapon on his team and in a matchup we’ve attacked with tight ends for years. The best “punt” plays to me are Dan Arnold, Dawson Knox, and Cole Kmet, all of whom have multipliers of 1.7x or higher and who have shown a strong involvement in their team’s offense.

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Joe Flacco look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The best game environments of the week are DAL/KC, CIN/LV, IND/BUF, and GB/MIN. Problem is, the multipliers in those games are pretty low, especially at quarterback. I’m more likely to stack those games with skill position players and not the quarterbacks (except for Burrow and Carr), but I will have modest exposure to Dak, Mahomes, and Allen.
  • CIN/LV really stands out to me on Superdraft so I want to get into more detail here. It’s the second-highest total game of the week, but it’s also one where we get attractive multipliers from both QBs at 1.3x to Tee Higgins at 1.5x and Darren Waller at 1.2x. 
  • Projections also lead me to the Dolphins/Jets, with Tua and Waddle standing out as two of the stronger plays, and you can work to get different here by adding a New York bring back, or by going to Gesicki instead of or in addition to Waddle.
  • Finally, my high-risk, high-reward stack of the week is around the Baltimore/Chicago game, but with Justin Fields and his juicy 1.7x multiplier instead of Lamar. Fields has had two really strong games recently, both of which would have him well over 30 Superdraft points, and his receivers come with massive multipliers (Mooney is my favorite at 1.7x). You can bring it back with Marquise Brown at a 1.4x, or don’t use a bring back at all and hope the Baltimore scoring is spread out. Not for the faint of heart, but there’s a big ceiling here