Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

SuperDraft Strategy 10.21.

Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

Week 10 and we’re halfway through the NFL season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP three times now and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week! 

We’re halfway through the season and we’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

The highest projected quarterback for me is Carson Wentz, of all things. Indy has one of the highest team totals on the slate, while Wentz’s 1.45x multiplier is exceedingly generous for that kind of expected scoring (of course, you need it to come through the air for Wentz to pay off). Jalen Hurts has had a couple of bad games, which has dropped his multiplier down to 1.35 which is fairly low for a QB with his level of upside. I also love Taysom Hill IF he starts, as he generates massive rushing production and a 1.65x multiplier is awesome. Taylor Heinicke should be throwing a ton and we’ve seen him get over 20 raw points on multiple occasions, which at a 1.5x multiplier would give you a tourney score you’re happy with. Outside of those guys, it’s game stack city for me with Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott all viable despite low multipliers, as all of their teams have the (strong) possibility of putting up a ton of points. 

I also want to note that, as of Friday, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are both missing from the player pool, but both are expected to return and start. I expect that Superdraft will add them, probably with low multipliers, but I think they’re viable in game stacks.

Running Back:

At running back, we have several backup situations in play this week. D’Ernest Johnson has a 1.55x multiplier if Nick Chubb misses, Mark Ingram is at 1.6x if Alvin Kamara misses, and the Patriots running back situation looks like it could come down to just two healthy guys if Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both miss. Oh, and Zack Moss is in the concussion protocol, which could leave Devin Singletary and his juicy 1.65x multiplier as the lead back for one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. 

One guy I’m likely to shy away from is James Conner, who was “priced up” to a 1.3x multiplier. Most of my running back exposure will come from the situations listed above, but I also like Najee Harris with the highest projected workload on the slate and a still-reasonable 1.15x multiplier. D’Andre Swift has a big ceiling at his 1.3x, as does Cordarelle Patterson at 1.35x. I also think it’s viable to play one lower-multiplier back this week for raw points and Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Aaron Jones are my likeliest candidates.

Wide Receiver:

As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:

  • Whatever Bucs receivers are healthy are in great spots with a limited receiving corps this week. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller . . . I’ll be on whoever plays.
  • Michael Pittman is somehow still sitting at a 1.5x multiplier, which is surprising after the run he’s been on (and the great matchup he gets this week).
  • Both Dallas receivers are firmly in play for me.
  • Diontae Johnson should see massive volume with Chase Claypool joining JuJu Smith-Schuster amongst the ranks of the injured. James Washington is a much riskier option, but a 1.9x multiplier gives him plenty of upside.
  • It’s hard for me to get behind a ton of Stefon Diggs at a 1.15x multiplier, but Manny Sanders at 1.65x looks juicy.
  • Mike Williams has been moved out of the “X” receiver role the Chargers were using him in earlier in the season, but this matchup against the Vikings is pretty ideal for his downfield role. 

Tight End:

Projections are funny things. They’re just math, and math can call out some strange plays . . . like Pat Freiermuth being the highest-projected tight end on the slate due to his 1.95x multiplier. He’s a good play in a vacuum but despite the multiplier, this is still a highly volatile position, and if Freiermuth is out projecting every other tight end by multiple points, and will thus likely be extremely heavily owned, it’s a spot I want to be underweight on. Instead, I’ll chase Dan Arnold (1.7x, best option to move the ball against the Colts D), Dalton Schultz (because I want a lot of exposure to that game), Kyle Pitts (1x multiplier but highest raw tight end ceiling on the slate), and TJ Hockenson (1.15x and should see plenty of volume as the Lions best option in the passing game). It’s also unclear if Logan Thomas is going to return this week, and he isn’t in the player pool right now, but Superdraft is pretty good about adding guys. I’d play either him or Ricky Seals-Jones if LT3 isn’t activated. 

Overall Strategy:

One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Ben Roethlisberger look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes (i.e. Roethlisberger projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong). Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:

  • The best game environments of the week are ATL@DAL and MIN@LAC. The QB multipliers aren’t especially attractive there, but any of these QBs can put up 25+ raw points (Ryan and Cousins have lower raw ceilings but higher multipliers). I’m going to have a lot of exposure here.
  • SEA@GB is likely to be a slow game, but as has been highlighted elsewhere, these are two offenses with multiple explosive pieces and the talent to have a real shootout. 
  • TB/WAS is my other primary game to target, as while I think a lot of people will be on the Bucs side, I think a lot fewer will be playing many Washington players. But, we can project extremely high passing volume and a relatively narrow distribution of that volume on the Washington side, with generous multipliers as well.
  • Finally, Wentz to Pittman is one of my favorite QB/WR pairings of the week, as both are at or near the top of projections for their respective positions, and Indy should be able to put up a lot of points here. Add in Dan Arnold to fill out your TE position with a high upside, high multiplier option.