Thursday, Dec 1st
Monday, Dec 5th
Bye Week:
Cardinals
Panthers

Superdraft 5.21.bp

Week 5 and Superdraft is still rolling out this nice $250k GPP despite it not having filled any week so far. As I keep harping on, overlay is such a massively +EV thing, and we should be taking advantage of it wherever we find it.

Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

Quarterback:

Trey Lance, if he starts, is the overall top QB option I’m looking at for this week. He’s high-risk as he could just flop, but at a 1.65x multiplier, I’m willing to take the risk. I’m also interested in Kirk Cousins at 1.35x (Vikings tied for the highest team total of the week), Tom Brady at 1.2x (Bucs also up there in team total), Aaron Rodgers at 1.25x, Daniel Jones at 1.4x (this is a potentially lucrative game environment and he’s easy to stack), and Burrow at 1.45x. I also want to go back to the well again with Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. Those are my main ones but I’m happy to include most QBs if they’re stackable.

Running Back:

Derrick Henry with a 1x multiplier is tough for me to want to use, but Christian McCaffrey (if he plays) and Dalvin Cook (if it looks like he’ll get his full workload) are both very tempting at 1.15x. Otherwise, as per usual, I’m looking for higher-multiplier options for ceiling. Najee Harris (whose multiplier doesn’t seem to move despite strong performances), Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley (1.45x for Saquon!), Ezekiel Elliott, Chuba Hubbard (if no CMC), Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Damien Harris, and Aaron Jones are the guys I want here. If you want to take shots at James Conner at 1.7x if Chase Edmonds misses, or Elijay Mitchell if he’s active, you have my blessing.

Wide Receiver:

We’re starting to see more wide receivers “priced” smartly with fewer glaring multipliers. So, I’m looking here for ceiling and for stackability. For example, Tom Brady in a vacuum is a decent option with a 1.2x multiplier, but then when you look at his primary receivers with multipliers from 1.3x to 1.5x, he looks very stackable indeed. Trey Lance stacks well with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk; Kirik Cousins with Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn (less so Justin Jefferson at 1.1x); Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase stack well with Joe Burrow; all the Giants receivers with Daniel Jones look attractive; Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson with Justin Fields; and Devonta Smith with Hurts.

Tight End:

No Kelce on the slate and Waller with a 1x multiplier makes me think “ewwww” about this position. We know Waller has a 25+ point ceiling so I’m fine using him but as usual, I would prefer to incorporate tight ends into my game stacks. Dalton Schultz (or even Blake Jarwin) make for good bring backs on Daniel Jones stacks. Cameron Brate can be stacked with Brady; Tyler Conklin with Cousins; and Maxx Williams as a bring back with Lance. Tight end looks rough this week and I’d be happy to find 15 points here but with the high multipliers we see at this position, a cheap guy getting a touchdown and not much else can still push for 20.

Overall Strategy

On salary cap sites, when we look at stacks, we need to consider not just overall projection/ceiling but also salary. Stacking Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is almost always a strong play in a vacuum, but they’re so expensive, even if they all have good games, you may not be able to build a tournament-winning roster around them. On Superdraft, it’s a similar dynamic. We need to consider multiplier adjusted ceiling and what it would take for each stack to put up tourney viable scores. Similar to the Chiefs stack example mentioned, stacking Rodgers to Davante Adams on Superdraft isn’t a play that couldn’t win you a tournament, but you would need massive ceiling performances at their multipliers. Same with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. As always, it’s okay to have some lower-multiplier plays on your rosters but make sure you’re only using a few. If you have a Rodgers to Adams stack, I probably wouldn’t want to use many other low-multiplier plays on that roster. On the other hand, some higher-multiplier options make for easy stackability.

Stacking Ideas

Here are some game stacks I want to build around this week:

  • Lance with Deebo or Aiyuk, considering James Conner, Rondale Moore, or Christian Kirk coming back (Conner mainly if Chase Edmonds is out). 
  • Hurts can be naked but can also be paired with Devonta Smith, and then the Panthers RB (whoever it is) or one of DJ Moore or Robby Anderson (who quietly saw 11 targets last week) coming back. 
  • Brady with one of his primary receivers and I’m not sure if I’d bother bringing back anyone on Miami here. If I did, it would be Waddle. 
  • Daniel Jones with one of his receivers (we’ll have to see who’s healthy but they all have nice multipliers) with one of Zeke, CeeDee Lamb, or Amari Cooper coming back. 
  • Joe Burrow with Chase or Higgins and then Aaron Jones or Davante coming back.
  • Mac Jones with Jakobi Meyers (he has to score a touchdown at some point….right?) and then Brandin Cooks coming back. 
  • Justin Fields with Darnell Mooney, probably without a bring-back here. 

Go get some overlay!