What is it that draws large portions of the field to certain players in a given week? Usually, it is the same few things….a great matchup, a low salary for a player’s talent, a perceived great game environment, etc. However, what these tendencies also do is leave players in perfectly fine situations with high upside overlooked. Enter Justin Jefferson. On paper, the Bears pass defense looks very solid, ranking 3rd in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed through four weeks. However, when you dig deeper you find that they have faced: Trey Lance in a monsoon, Aaron Rodgers with a beat-up receiving corps, Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones/Tyrod Taylor. Kirk Cousins gets a lot of heat for flopping in primetime, but home games against poor teams are where he thrives. Dalvin Cook should be fairly popular and Jefferson appears to be going overlooked. Add to that the fact that the Bears will be without their top corner, and we could be in store for a multi-”Griddy” game from Jefferson.
Bucs D – Tampa Bay’s offense should start rolling this week, and if they build a lead and force Marcus Mariota to actually throw the ball a lot, we could really see the wheels fall off this Falcons offense.
Dolphins D – Zach Wilson. That’s all.
Rams D – The Cowboys defense will be the most popular team on Draftkings this week, as they are mispriced and in a great spot. However, on the other side of that game, we have a very talented Rams defense that is facing a backup QB. Cooper Rush has played great this year, but this is by far his toughest test.
Nick Chubb has averaged 4.9 yards per carry or more in every game this season and is facing a Chargers team that has conceded the 3rd most yards per carry in the NFL this season and has given up 50-plus yard touchdown runs in consecutive games. At this point, Chubb is basically Derrick Henry from a couple of years ago as a running back who has a high price and doesn’t catch many passes, which keeps his ownership down. This week he has the highest chances of a 30+ point fantasy game of any running back, however.
Mike Williams has a great matchup this week against a Browns team with an underwhelming pass defense that has been lucky to face a poor string of passing offenses so far this season in the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons. Now the Chargers bring their high-octane offense that is 3rd in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to town and the Browns will have their hands full with Williams, who should see 8+ targets in this matchup.
I’m going back to the well on Rashaad Penny this week. Kenneth Walker was added to the injury report late in the week and Penny is fully healthy after resting for Wednesday’s practice. Going back to last season, Penny has been absolutely dominant when he gets a big workload. This week’s matchup against the Saints isn’t an “easy” one by any means, but they have given up two 100-yard rushing games in the first four weeks of the season. Penny is in a unique position where he is coming off a big game, lined up for an even bigger workload, still has a pretty low salary, and is going overlooked by the field.