Thursday, Sep 21st

Storyboard #3

Written by :: Mike Johnson

Trading Up

Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made. 

At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on the day the Draftkings NFL Best Ball $10M Millionaire contest opened.

Picking from 2nd slot

Picks 1.02: Justin Jefferson — Jefferson is my top overall player in my rankings, so when he falls to me at 2 or 3 that is always a nice bonus to start off the draft.

Picks 2.11 & 3.02: Josh Jacobs & Devonta Smith — The top 3 QB’s were gone already and Jacobs was the top available player at my turn. I was happy to take him here. I (correctly) assumed the person drafting behind me would take Burrow/Higgins to pair with Chase, which left my decision with either Smith or Chubb. I went with the WR and stuck with my rankings.

Picks 4.11 & 5.02: Justin Fields & Jerry Jeudy — Fields fell a long way in this draft. I have him as the 5th QB in the top tier and he has potential to be the overall QB1 and is capable of breaking any given slate in the playoffs, so getting him here is terrific.

I had three WR options who are all very close in my rankings — Jeudy, Christian Kirk, and Christian Watson. I could have taken Watson for Week 17 correlation with Jefferson, but decided to go with Jeudy instead.

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