Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Thursday, May 22nd in the $2 Drafters Mini NFL Best Ball Championship, with $100,000 prize pool, $10,000 to first place, and 56,256 total entries ::
Picking from 4th slot
Picks 1.04 — Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI — Rare to see Saquon fall this far. Possibly a reaction to this week’s ruling that the “Tush Push” will still be legal this season. Either way, I’ll take it.
Picks 2.09 and 3.04 — Tee Higgins, WR, CIN and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA — After taking a running back in the first round, I really want to focus on wide receivers in the second and third rounds. Higgins is a high-upside player who ironically has a path to top-five WR production that is most likely if Ja’Marr Chase were to miss significant time. This makes him a player that I actually prefer taking with Barkley, Justin Jefferson, or Jahmyr Gibbs rosters rather than pairing him with Chase. This is a situation where the Drafters cumulative scoring changes things. In a “playoff” format contest, stacking up the Bengals WRs has a ton of appeal. In a cumulative format, I want my first picks to all have clear paths to elite positional production and that don’t cannibalize each other.
After taking Higgins, a bit of a wild card, as my WR1, I decided to pair him with JSN, whose target share and lead role seem a bit more clear. If you read the first Storyboard, you also would have seen that I took Chase in that one and paired him with JSN. I use the Drafters Tracking Document that our own StatATL created to look at the different pairings of early-round players I have. As noted above, Chase and Higgins have negatively correlated chances of posting top-five WR seasons. For that reason, I will try to have rosters that have similar players paired with each of them. Simplifying the thought process here, it is very likely one of the Bengals WRs posts a top-five season. If JSN posts an elite season, one way or another I’ll have a roster with two top-tier positional finishes.
Picks 4.09 and 5.04 — Omarion Hampton, RB, LAC and Jameson Williams, WR, DET —
