“A lousy way to do memory prediction is ‘X happened in the past, therefore X will happen in the future.’ It’s too based on specific circumstances. What you want is principles. You want mental models.” ~Naval Ravikant, The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
One Week Season is a site devoted to teaching its subscribers how to think differently. It’s why I flocked here and most likely why you did too. And the only way to start to think differently is to continue to practice thinking differently every day.
I enjoyed the quote from Naval above (a great read too, I’m halfway through it) because we don’t live in a simple world. We live in a complex world where all interactions are interconnected and nothing happens in a vacuum. Things tend to happen because of specific circumstances which exist, and the specific circumstance of yesterday, differ from the specific circumstances of today, which will differ from the specific circumstances of tomorrow.
It’s why humans mostly fail at predicting future outcomes, because it’s near impossible to account for ALL the changing variables of the future. It’s why mental models and frameworks can be more effective in predicting the outcomes, because they can get closer to accounting for this variance than our human mind can.
I hope that makes sense. Think of it as framing the future, visualizing it almost, instead of saying last time this happened, so this will most certainly happen again.
We have a fun slate today. The last main slate before the 2021 MLB All-Star break. And we’re going to make some cash today.
I’m going to bring together some of the frameworks I’ve put forward in this space in the past to culminate, hopefully, on today’s slate to make some sense of all 11 games and how we should navigate it.
<< Stats for hitters are across the past 10 days, pitchers 21 days >>
We’re not sure Szapucki will start anymore vs. the Pirates today so watch that. But the lefty has not been good so far in his short time in MLB. Williams gets a pass as his one start back from IL went only 3.2 innings so we’ll throw his stuff out. De Jong is a nice target vs. the Mets, as their offense is finally back and healthy putting up 13 runs Friday night, but looking measly in a double-header yesterday. Ray and Hill matchup in Tampa for a game where I like the Toronto offensive side better as Hill is still walking too many batters, and giving up too many fly balls. But watch the game stack here too. I would like the Bubic vs. Morgan game stack as well but those two offenses seem to have scored all their runs yesterday (20 total, 14 for Cleveland).
(Update: Carlos Hernandez will start for KC today, instead of Bubic)
Four offenses above to highlight, see below the advanced metrics and happy stacking today! (sorted by Hard-hit rate, minimum 20 AB’s over past 10 days)
Twins: My favorite stack of the day. The top four (Cruz, Sano, Donaldson, Larnach) plus Polanco is due for a HR.
Phillies: I hesitate on the full stack, more of a HR hunt with Realmuto and Hoskins
White Sox: Watered-down lineup at the moment, but Abreu is in rare form. Goodwin’s fly balls jump out, and Anderson is due for some positive regression.
Blue Jays: Vlad, Semien, Bichette and watch Biggio’s fly-balls plus Springer’s improvements.