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Stack Your Stack ⚾ July 11

>>>Larejo123

“A lousy way to do memory prediction is ‘X happened in the past, therefore X will happen in the future.’ It’s too based on specific circumstances. What you want is principles. You want mental models.” ~Naval Ravikant, The Almanack of Naval Ravikant

One Week Season is a site devoted to teaching its subscribers how to think differently. It’s why I flocked here and most likely why you did too. And the only way to start to think differently is to continue to practice thinking differently every day.

I enjoyed the quote from Naval above (a great read too, I’m halfway through it) because we don’t live in a simple world. We live in a complex world where all interactions are interconnected and nothing happens in a vacuum. Things tend to happen because of specific circumstances which exist, and the specific circumstance of yesterday, differ from the specific circumstances of today, which will differ from the specific circumstances of tomorrow.

It’s why humans mostly fail at predicting future outcomes, because it’s near impossible to account for ALL the changing variables of the future. It’s why mental models and frameworks can be more effective in predicting the outcomes, because they can get closer to accounting for this variance than our human mind can. 

I hope that makes sense. Think of it as framing the future, visualizing it almost, instead of saying last time this happened, so this will most certainly happen again.

Sunday, July 11th 

We have a fun slate today. The last main slate before the 2021 MLB All-Star break. And we’re going to make some cash today.

I’m going to bring together some of the frameworks I’ve put forward in this space in the past to culminate, hopefully, on today’s slate to make some sense of all 11 games and how we should navigate it. 

<< Stats for hitters are across the past 10 days, pitchers 21 days >>

Pitchers to Stack Against
  • Hard Hit %: Thomas Szapucki 69.2 // Chase De Jong 53.1 // Trevor Williams (3.2 innings) 50 // Robbie Ray 46.9 // Luis Castillo 46.6
  • Barrel %: Szapucki 23.1 // De Jong 18.4 // Williams 12.5 // Eli Morgan 11.6 // Wily Peralta 10.2
  • SIERA: Spenser Watkins 6.5 // Kris Bubic 5.74 // Hill 5.57 // Szapucki 5.18 // De Jong 4.76
  • Fly Ball %: Morgan 60.5 // Nick Pivetta 58.5 // Rich Hill 58.5 // Ray 44.9 // Kolby Allard 43.7
  • BB %: Szapucki 15 // Bubic 14.5 // Watkins 13 // Hill 11.1 // Castillo 8.6

We’re not sure Szapucki will start anymore vs. the Pirates today so watch that. But the lefty has not been good so far in his short time in MLB. Williams gets a pass as his one start back from IL went only 3.2 innings so we’ll throw his stuff out. De Jong is a nice target vs. the Mets, as their offense is finally back and healthy putting up 13 runs Friday night, but looking measly in a double-header yesterday. Ray and Hill matchup in Tampa for a game where I like the Toronto offensive side better as Hill is still walking too many batters, and giving up too many fly balls. But watch the game stack here too. I would like the Bubic vs. Morgan game stack as well but those two offenses seem to have scored all their runs yesterday (20 total, 14 for Cleveland). 

(Update: Carlos Hernandez will start for KC today, instead of Bubic)

Narratives to Capitalize on:
  • Twins vs. Wily Peralta: He’s been pretty steady in his three starts this season and facing an underperforming Twins offense today. He has 11 K’s and 0 BB over his last two. He’s still giving up barrels, however, and I don’t think this will be the first place to look for offense today.
  • Phillies vs. Pivetta: Pivetta is coming off his strongest outing of his career. Phillies lead the league in offensive ISO over the last 10 days. As good as Pivetta was last Sunday, he still is giving up over 50% fly balls. I’d go home run hunting here, not a stack.
  • White Sox vs. Watkins: People will tend to see CHW vs. a no-name pitcher and immediately look to stack. Then they’ll look at the box score from his MLB debut and have hesitations. Don’t hesitate, play the Sox.
  • Blue Jays vs. Hill: Hill is generally seen as a veteran pitcher (he is) who limits the damage. He’s struggled with blisters over his career and his current form is terrible. Stacking in the Trop in Tampa is also not a favorite of most. I will have a lot of Blue Jays in my lineups today.

Four offenses above to highlight, see below the advanced metrics and happy stacking today! (sorted by Hard-hit rate, minimum 20 AB’s over past 10 days)

Twins: My favorite stack of the day. The top four (Cruz, Sano, Donaldson, Larnach) plus Polanco is due for a HR. 

Phillies: I hesitate on the full stack, more of a HR hunt with Realmuto and Hoskins

White Sox: Watered-down lineup at the moment, but Abreu is in rare form. Goodwin’s fly balls jump out, and Anderson is due for some positive regression.

Blue Jays: Vlad, Semien, Bichette and watch Biggio’s fly-balls plus Springer’s improvements.