Thursday, Dec 12th

Sonic’s MME Pool 8.24

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Vacated Targets

For DFS newcomers: Fantasy points boil down to where volume meets efficiency. Value is essentially what happens when that potential is misjudged by DraftKings pricing. When we spot value, it’s gold…for cash games. But in tournaments, those plays tend to draw high ownership, turning that golden value into a double-edged sword. The choices to fade or go heavy on these plays can ultimately decide what’s in the account come Sunday night.

One common scenario for value popping up on an NFL slate is when a target-heavy receiver suddenly exits the lineup. Those vacated targets can light up projection models, but relying on them is risky—now we’re gambling on limited data and banking on assumptions that come with high ownership.

Hear the wisdom of Yoda: “Roster speculative players into low ownership, I will. Into chalk…I will not.”

Or maybe it was Xandamere saying it 17 times on the Slate pod. Either way, it’s advice worth considering.

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It’ll be tough to resist those chalky plays reaping the benefits of their teammates’ absence. Thankfully, we’ve got a solid resource for low-owned plays with upside to mix in alongside these budget-friendly clicks.

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These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

Derrick Henry/Cedric Tillman

I’m running an embarrassing amount of Jameis Winston stacks. It was the first thing that jumped off the page on Monday. Even when I’m stacking a different game, I’ll still have some Tillman in the mix because, at $3,300, he can get there without necessarily dragging Jameis along for the ride. As for Henry, his knack for chunk plays and turning red zone trips into touchdowns makes him the guy who can push any standard game into a shootout. With both of these guys projected under 8% ownership, it’s a game environment bet I’m willing to make.

Darnell Mooney/Rachaad White

If this game turns into a shootout, we can scoop up some PPR goodness with touchdown upside at low ownership and leverage.

Mooney’s been seeing eight targets per game with a solid 11.3 aDOT (per PFF). Pretty nice ceiling at 5.1% pOWN.

And what if Rachaad White emerges as the go-to option because he’s a better receiver than Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard? At just 2.5% pOWN, he offers leverage off his chalkier teammates, Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton.

Davante Adams/Hunter Henry

Leverage alert! I expect the Patriots to come out determined not to look soft against the run this week. With a stacked box, Aaron Rodgers will somehow Jedi Mind trick the young Pats into jumping offsides, leading to a couple of end zone heaves to Adams and Garrett Wilson. Adams is literally at 1/10th the projected ownership of Breece Hall.

If Drake Maye can push this game forward, it’ll likely be through his most trusted target. At just 2.9% pOWN, the $3800 Hunter Henry offers a nice price pivot off the aforementioned Tampa Bay chalk.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

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