SNF

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night brings the Cowboys to Pittsburgh for a 43.5 total game with the Steelers favored by 3. At first glance that looked odd, but then I realized that Dallas is 2-2 with a negative point differential while Pittsburgh is 3-1 with a +22 differential, one of the best in the league. Of course, these two teams win games very differently. Dallas has a very solid offense, while the Steelers slow things down and don’t score much but have allowed only 53 points to be scored against them, 2nd lowest in the league (in something I never would have guessed before the season, the Chargers are lowest with just 50). Let’s dig in.

Pittsburgh

For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren is going to miss another game, leaving the backfield to Najee Harris with Aaron Shampklin and one of Jonathan Ward or La’Mical Perine backing him up. Dallas had a Showdown game in Week 4 and we talked about how they’ve been getting run over on the ground but have also faced some powerful rushing attacks, and to be wary of viewing them as the worst defense in the league against the run . . . and then they proceeded to hold the Giants to just 26 total rushing yards. Beware of early season small samples. This defense doesn’t look like it should be so horrible against the run, and I’m willing to bet they can continue to look better against it in this one. Najee Harris is being projected around the industry as one of the highest owned players on the Fanduel main slate (which includes the Sunday night game), so I think it’s safe to say he’s going to project very well here and be very popular. I don’t think he’s a terrible play as he’s a home favorite running back who is going to have an extremely robust role (the 6 targets last week with Warren out were particularly encouraging). On paper, he looks like an awesome play. I’m just a little wary because his career sub-4 YPC and lack of any real explosive ability (his longest carry in the entirety of last season was 25 yards) means he’s going to have to really grind his way there, and if he doesn’t find the end zone, he could easily fail. With Pittsburgh only having scored six offensive touchdowns in four games, there isn’t a lot of scoring to go around, and Justin Fields is always a threat to steal a rushing score. Najee’s a very strong play on paper due to his workload and passing game role – I’m just a little wary. One way to play this, if you play on Fanduel, would be to completely avoid him on their main slate but then load up in the Showdown where he’s clearly a much stronger play. Shampkin only saw a single touch last week and I’d expect him to only be lightly involved but he’s worth including in tournament pools because he could steal a score or something could happen to Najee.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Steelers are averaging just 27.25 pass attempts per game with Justin Fields at quarterback. Of those pass attempts, George Pickens is seeing 7.25 per game – pretty nice target share. Ostensible WR2 Van Jefferson has seen a whopping 8 targets, Calvin Austin has 10, Tight end Pat Freiermuth has 20, the running backs have 20, and the rest are scattered around. On this low-volume offense, it’s really only Pickens, Freiermuth, and the RBs seeing meaningful volume. They’re also going up against an aggressive and strong pass defense, however, Dallas is also missing some important pieces with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons out, while top cornerback Trevon Diggs got a mid-week downgrade with an ankle injury on Thursday before not practicing on Friday. He’s listed as questionable but a mid-week downgrade/DNP is generally bad news. I’m guessing he misses. That makes the matchup significantly easier for Pickens, and while the Steelers would prefer not to throw a lot, Pickens is definitely a guy who can hit on limited volume (he already has three catches of 35+ yards this season out of 20 total receptions). Jefferson and Austin are really just tourney punt plays despite being the WR2/WR3 of this offense – the Steelers just don’t throw much and when they do it isn’t to these two. You’d need a fluky touchdown to make them relevant. 

The other involved guy is of course Freiermuth, but he’s really in that traditional tight end safety valve role with an aDOT of just 4.9 yards. That means he probably needs volume or a touchdown to really hit – volume is scarce in this offense and touchdowns aren’t much better. At $6,600, he’s a tough click. TE2 and TE3 Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward can also be viewed as punt options. And yes, most of my Steelers interest is limited to Fields, Najee, and Pickens (and their kicker and DST). I’ll have smidges of the rest, but this is an offense that is both low volume and highly concentrated. 

Dallas

The Dallas side is a little more interesting. At running back, we have Rico Dowdle as the primary back, but then Hunter Luepke appears to be eating into Ezekiel Elliott’s role. Luepke has played 38% and 52% of the snaps the last two weeks while Zeke has dropped down to 19% and 18%. Luepke actually outsnapped Dowdle last week in a game the Cowboys were up throughout, though Dowdle outtouched him 12-4. Let’s break this down a bit more. At the start of the season, Dowdle and Zeke were in a roughly even split but Zeke’s touches have dropped to 5 and 6 the last two weeks, rendering him a fairly thin punt option. Dowdle was the guy I expected to take over the backfield (I have a lot in Best Ball) and his touches went from 9 and 12 in the first two weeks to 13 and 12 in the last two even as Zeke dropped off . . . that isn’t exactly a resounding endorsement of Dowdle. Luepke’s seeing more field time but still has just 2 carries and 7 targets on the season. I’d expect Dowdle to lead in both carries and overall opportunities and for Zeke to get a few backup carries while Luepke is primarily involved in the passing game, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here. The problem is that none of these guys look like strong plays. Dowdle is $8,200, and while I do have some wariness around Najee, he’s very clearly a much stronger play for just $600 more. They’re all playable, with Dowdle having the most upside, but I’m probably going to have a modest amount of Dowdle (for his ceiling if he finds the end zone), I’ll likely be a bit overweight on Luepke (at $1k and with a decent passing game role and growing field time, I think he’s cheap enough to be worth the investment), and very little or no Zeke. And, of course, the Cowboys are also road underdogs against one of the NFL’s top defenses.

In the passing game, Dallas will face a Steelers defense allowing just 175 passing yards per game and also allowing a league-low 53.8 opposing plays per game. Brandin Cooks was also placed on injured reserve with a knee injury this week, testing the depth of their receiving corps behind CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee is a top-3 wide receiver in the NFL (top 5? I dunno. He’s really really good), but this is one of the toughest possible spots. At $11.8k, he’s the best-projected skill position player in the game but there are clearly paths to failure (also worth noting that the Ravens held Lamb to just 4 catches for 67 scoreless yards in Week 3, a game in which Dak Prescott attempted 51 passes). He’s never a bad play, but personally, I don’t think I’m going to go out of my way to prioritize him in this one. He’ll find his way into a healthy number of lineups purely because of his projection, and I’m not going to try to force more than that. We’ve talked at OWS about how we were seeing Jalen Tolbert overtake Cooks for the WR2 role and the injury solidifies that. He’s a talented young player who will have up and down days, but at $5,600, I think he’s underpriced for the role he’s going to have without Cooks on the field. On a slate without a lot of value (thanks to so many cheap Steelers being just punt options), Tolbert looks like a solid option to me especially with Lamb being the focus of the defense. WR3 will be occupied by some combination of Jalen Brooks and KaVontae Turpin. Turpin is more of a gadget player, so I think Brooks is the one most likely to see increased snaps, but Turpin could see an extra touch or two schemed his way. I don’t think Brooks is really anything special – he’s $2,400, and he should be on the field a lot, but it’s an open question whether he’ll earn many targets during his field time. I’d guess not. I actually prefer Turpin at a similar price point as his snaps aren’t likely to increase to the same extent, but when he’s on the field, the Cowboys are getting the ball to him. He was used heavily in the red zone last year and probably has the best odds to score a touchdown of anyone priced below the kickers. He’s a value option for me. It’s also possible we could see something unexpected at WR3. Ryan Flourny is at least a remote possibility to see some field time and could be used as a punt play. 

At tight end, Jake Ferguson is clearly a better play on paper than Freiermuth. He’s $1k more but I think the gap between them should be bigger. Ferguson has 23 targets in three games with a bit more upside (6.1 ADOT vs. Muth’s 4.9) and now Dallas is missing a piece of their passing offense, which could lead to volume condensing in the guys they know and trust. He’s a fine mid-range piece and then backup TE Luke Schoonmaker is an MME option.

Strategy Outlook

This game projects to be a slow-paced, low-scoring slog. The first thing you need to take a position on is whether or not you think the Cowboys can break through the Steelers defense. If the Steelers can control the game they’re going to play very slow and focus on the run game, but if playing from behind, they will open things up a bit (Fields had a season-high 34 pass attempts last week and threw for 312 yards while playing catch-up against the Colts). Obviously, the Steelers passing game is much more viable in the latter scenario, so decide what you want to build for. There are a lot of ways this game could go. The Steelers could control it throughout, or the Cowboys could take an early lead and force the Steelers to try to catch up. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Cowboys dominate if the Steelers mediocre offense has trouble moving the ball. 

Cash Games

In cash games, I want to prioritize Najee, Fields, and Dak at the higher end. Kickers are fine and Lamb is obviously awesome if you can fit him, but I’m not trying to prioritize the Pittsburgh run game here. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, the top captains are going to be Lamb and Najee. I hate to say it but Najee is a really strong choice. Other guys I want to be overweight on are Pickens, Ferguson, and Tolbert. Oh, and then Fields himself is obviously a strong captain as his rushing QB is significant. 

Some groups to consider

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs (could do 3 if building for an “under” scenario)
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team
• Max 1 Steelers pass catcher outside of Pickens and Freiermuth
• Max 1 of Turpin and Brooks
• Max 1 Dallas running back