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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
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Kyle Pitts has not been very involved in this offense. Yes, it’s a great matchup, but Pitts is averaging 4.6 targets per game and has caught more than 3 passes just once this season (and that was a game in which Kirk Cousins attempted an insane 58 pass attempts in an OT game). Overall Pitts has an incredibly weak 13.5% target share – which means if Cousins attempts 35 passes (which would be tied for his 2nd most of the season), we would project Pitts for 5 targets. Under 3.5 catches on 5 targets at modest juice is a great spot to attack.
The bet is good to: -130
Look, Kelce’s a great player, but 6.5 catches is a big line for almost any NFL player. Given Mahomes’ decline in completion rate this season, Kelce not getting any younger, and a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that is solid all around (and especially so against tight ends), we’re willing to take the under here. Kelce’s had a couple of big games since Rashee Rice got injured but we expect that as the weeks go by the Chiefs will continue to develop Xavier Worthy’s route tree, adding more target competition.
The bet is good to: -125
Tucker Kraft has had a couple of big games but overall he’s a low-volume receiver in this offense, averaging 4.3 targets per game (in his big game in Week 5 as DFS chalk he only saw 5 targets…on which he caught 2 touchdowns). Even if Dontayvion Wicks misses (and we currently have him projected as being out), we don’t see that materially moving the needle on Kraft’s target expectation. We’re getting plus money to bet under 3.5 catches on a guy we think is unlikely to see more than 5 targets and that’s just too good of a spot to pass up.
The bet is good to: +100
