These are not your father’s New England Patriots. They are more like your grandfather’s Patsie. It can be argued that this is the absolute lowest point in the Robert Kraft era. When he bought the team, they had one of the greatest coaches ever and the No. 1 draft pick, Drew Bledsoe, in the fold.
They were a team on the rise, and within a few years, Parcells made them into a playoff team with a winning culture, ultimately leading them to their second Super Bowl appearance. We all remember what happened leading up to that Super Bowl run…the mercurial Parcell got frustrated that Kraft vetoed a draft pick, using his trump card to take WR Terry Glenn. Parcells famously referred to Glenn as “she”…something that would never fly today, and realistically, Glenn became the final straw for Parcells in New England.
The team lost to the Packers, and after the game, Parcells didn’t even fly back with the team. After his departure, Pete Carroll came on board, lasting three seasons. His worst season was 8-8, and he left with a 27-21 record. Today is worse than even then.
The closest to this team’s dysfunction was Bill Belichick’s first season, which ended with a 5-11 record. And to start his second season, the team was 0-2. Mo Lewis nearly killed QB Bledsoe, Tom Brady replaced him, and the rest…as they say, is history.
For over 20 seasons, the Patriots were the benchmark for the league. But it’s now five years since Brady’s been gone. And it’s the first season without Belichick. The team hasn’t been in such disarray for a quarter of a century, a run that will never be duplicated. This is even worse than their 4-13 record last year.
There is a famous Mel Brooks play/movie called The Producers, about a director of Broadway shows, and his accountant figures out that a flop can be more profitable than a hit. The same is true for football teams…you can make just as much making bets with bad teams as you can with good teams, as long as you know where to look.
Last season, the Patriots were tied with the Carolina Panthers with the fewest points scored, averaging 13.88 per game. The team’s strongest part is its defense, but it was only middle of the pack in the AFC for points allowed, giving up 21.52. When you combine both, the over/under in their games last year was only in the mid-30s.
HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN
Pound the under in their games for the first month of the season until the oddsmakers realize just how anemic this offense is. To begin with, they have an entirely new coaching staff, including the HC and offensive coordinator. They have a project in rookie QB Drake Maye. By all accounts, he’s not starting in week one, and apparently, there isn’t even a QB competition.
The starter is going to be serviceable: ninth-year QB Jacoby Brissett. He is the very definition of mediocre, who doesn’t excite anybody. The team has no player in the top 100 on offense or defense.
They stand to be behind in many games, and there is no way this offense has enough (any) weapons to catch up. The best part of their offense may be the running game in Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, but if they are down by two scores early…which they will be, the running game won’t be as much of a factor.
They open the season in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is already talking smack, seemingly on some sort of redemption tour. The o/u in this game is currently 42.5. Lay it in on the under before the oddsmakers see any more preseason games to see how inept this team is.
By game time, this game could drop to under 40 points, but especially at 42.5, it is a fantastic play. The only way this game could go over the number is if Cincy scores 38 points themselves. But even then, the Patriots would need a couple of field goals…and their field goal kicker is extremely inconsistent. Last season, he missed nine field goals, only making 16 out of 25 attempts.
If you want to get frisky, lay the points with the Bengals, too. They are currently favored by nine points.
