In terms of ADP, these two QBs are ranked as the number 10 and 11 QBs off the board this season, being drafted after the Jordan Love/Dak Prescott range and before the Tua Tagovailoa/Jared Goff range. In one QB leagues specifically, you are likely to see them go off the board around picks 75-85 overall. That range is one of my QB sweet spots in drafts this season, but if you are on the clock and looking to draft a QB, which one would you take, and why?
Purdy started 16 of 17 games last season for the 49ers and was excellent. He went 12-4, threw for nearly 4,300 yards, 31 TDs to just 11 INTs, and ended the season fourth in NFL MVP voting. It was just his second NFL season, his first full year as a starter, and there’s an argument to be made that he is still improving. Therefore, he could be even better in 2024. He is a very safe pick at the QB position, and waiting to draft him near his ADP allows you to load up on WRs, RBs, and even a good TE before pulling the trigger on your starting QB.
Murray sometimes gets a bad reputation for not being a student of the game and not taking his game planning seriously. Although there may be some truth to that, you cannot deny his natural athletic abilities. He is a good QB who is also a great scrambler. There is some risk with Murray, though, and it has nothing to do with his attitude. The risk is that he hasn’t played a full season since 2020. He does have a new look offense heading into 2024, though, and he is healthy as well. The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the emergence of TE Trey McBride has many people, including myself, very bullish on Murray this year. There is a strong possibility that he will reach 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD passes for the first time in his career in 2024, and his ability to run with the football and score TDs on the ground only adds to his intrigue.
If you want to play things safe, Purdy is probably the guy for you. He is a good QB, in a good offense with excellent weapons at every skill position. If your league gives six points for passing TD, then he definitely gets a bump up over Murray. If your league is four points per TD pass though, suddenly Murray becomes more interesting because chances are, Murray is going to score more TDs rushing than Purdy will. Taking scoring settings out of the discussion for a moment, though, I want to look at team context here.
Purdy is on an elite team that should not only blow a lot of teams out but will surely be ahead in games in the 4th quarter. The 49ers will lean on their running game in those scenarios, limiting Purdy’s upside. Their RB also happens to be the best in the game, and he will score a lot of red zone TDs, which also hurts Purdy’s value. On the other hand, Murray is on a team that has a horrible defense, so the Cardinals are going to be in a lot of high-scoring games, and they will rely on Murray to put up plenty of points if they want to win games. Murray will benefit from garbage time points, while Purdy won’t most weeks.
If you are like me and want upside at by the time you get to round seven, Murray is the pick for you. I am willing to bet that most high-stakes players agree with me. Although Purdy is safer, Murray has all the upside. Murray could be a league winner this season if he can stay healthy. Take Murray and watch him outscore the top QBs on a consistent basis.
