JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod.
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As long as the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t stumble this week, the three-man combo of Amari // CeeDee // Zeke has a pretty solid shot at combining for around 75 DK points (320 combined yards and three combined touchdowns equals 50 points; with two bonuses included, we push this to 56; add 15 to 20 catches (a fairly modest number for this trio), and we’re up to 70/75) — which would be just shy of 4x their combined salary (allowing you to lock in a 200-point pace with a pretty large chunk of your salary). Of course, it’s not likely that these scores will be evenly distributed. Instead — like last week — it’s likeliest that one player hits big, one hits a rock-solid score, and one disappoints. The spread between “disappointing” and “hitting big” won’t always be as big as it was last week, but the spread will certainly exist more often than not. If this were an overlooked stack, I would play all three — knowing that it wouldn’t really matter which individual player fails, as this wouldn’t materially impact me in the standings. With at least two of these guys (the wideouts) sure to be popular, however, it becomes sharper to play two of these three together and hope to capture the two bigger scores. I don’t know yet exactly how my rosters will shape up this week, of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me if I had something like 4/7 with Amari/CeeDee, one with Amari/Zeke, one with CeeDee/Zeke, and one with all three. (Any of these could include Dak or Herbert. And optimally, all would include at least one piece from the Chargers. But these pairings could also be played with other quarterbacks who are leading stacks from other games.)
Keenan Allen // Mike Williams // Austin Ekeler will all make appearances on my rosters this week, and I expect to keep Jalen Guyton and Jared Cook in close consideration as well, as I’ll be looking to overstack this game in the places where I give myself exposure.
Which brings me to the more critical point here (as this spot is not about “picking players” so much as it’s about betting on the game environment) :: because this spot will be popular, I want to make sure I am either overstacking (taking four or five players from this game on a single roster) or focusing on the overlooked plays from this game in the hopes that the action filters their way. That “overlooked plays” list includes Cedrick Wilson, especially if his lower projected ownership holds. He’s not the likeliest player to hit from the Cowboys…but any low-owned play from this game has a higher probability of hitting than their ownership will indicate.
You could, of course, alternately play this slate by betting that this game underwhelms (that’s not impossible!), and you could isolate one Cowboys pass catcher to bet on (the concentrated volume is too sharp to pass up, in my opinion) and otherwise leave this game alone. That’s a viable way to differentiate from the field, especially with other quality games available on this slate. But with the concentrated nature of the Cowboys’ offense and their attacking identity, they’re a starting point for me across my rosters this week, and I’ll expect to include one or two Chargers pieces on most of my Cowboys builds.
If you haven’t read the NFL Edge writeup for this game, you probably should. That will help you get a clearer sense of everything this game provides.
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