Papy’s Pieces 11.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week finally brings us some desirable totals – AZ // HOU, CHI // DET, LV // MIA, and SEA // LAR are all expected to produce points.   
• The Giants are on the main slate which means there is at least one team that is a two-score favorite. The G-Men are so bad, that their opponents merit consideration every week. This week, the Commanders are the lucky team that gets to play the Giants.
• The Commanders (-9) are joined by the Dolphins (-13.5), Cowboys (-10.5), and 49ers (-11.5) as two score favorites. The Bills (-7), Texans (-6), Jaguars (-7) and Lions (-7.5) are all touchdown favorites.
• The only game with a high total and a competitive spread is SEA // LAR.
• There are eleven QBs on the slate who either began the year as a backup or have less than two full years of starting experience. Several fit both criteria.  

Pawn – WR Jameson Williams ($3,300)

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) were both considered for spots in this article and I wouldn’t fault you for playing one of the safer Lions. Now, for those us you who like to gamble, can I interest you in some Williams?  Williams played the most snaps of his career (52%) last week and had a touchdown called back on an illegal block. He was publicly praised by the coaching staff this week and it’s easy to forget the Lions traded up for him just two years ago, selecting him over Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Most people write that move off as a mistake, but the Lions valued Williams highly for a reason. He can flat out fly (4.3 40-time) and boasts plus size at 6’1. The Bears generate no pressure (the least sacks in the league) and have given up the second most touchdown passes. I think Williams gets behind this defense, and I like betting his touchdown prop which can currently be had at +300 or better on most books. This might be the last week to get a free Williams, at 1% ownership.

Knight – RB Devin Singletary ($5,300)

Featured as last week’s Pawn, Singletary didn’t disappoint, delivering 26.1 DK points on a whopping 31 touches. The Bengals profile as a run funnel, whereas all paths against the Cardinals are that of least resistance. It’s not realistic to think Singletary sees 30 carries again, but he could easily see more than two targets and repeat his elite (81%) snap share with Dameon Pierce set to miss another week. The matchup is excellent, and Singletary’s price didn’t increase anywhere near enough to account for his role without Pierce. It’s going to be hard not to play him on most of my rosters, and he’ll absolutely be featured on my tighter builds. The one knock is that we won’t get the low ownership we saw last week, but sometimes you must make the right play, even if everyone else is also making the same play.

Bishop – RB Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800)

Robinson has seen snap shares ranging between 37% and 61% on the year. His snap shares in his last five games are 51% // 56% // 49% // 49% // 53%.  Antonio Gibson has played almost every other snap at RB with only 43 snaps all year going to someone other than the Commanders top two RBs. Those splits are notable for two reasons. First, Robinson is currently the RB6 in PPR scoring. Second, Antonio Gibson has been ruled doubtful for this game. If we were to add Gibson’s PPR points to Robinson’s yearly total, Robinson would be the RB1, one point ahead of Christian McCaffrey. While it’s not fair to expect Robinson to inherit all Gibson’s work, it is fair to expect him to get most of the vacated touches, which sets Robinson up for a massive price considered workload. Add in that he’s playing the Giants who are rolling over, as a home favorite, and Robinson is checking all the boxes. Early ownership projections have him around 10%, but that must not be factoring in Gibson’s absence. I expect Robinson will be chalk, but if he scores 30 points, you’re still going to need him. I’ll have him on my tighter builds, often paired with Singletary. I’ll look to diversify my rosters elsewhere.

Rook – WR Christian Kirk ($6,000)