Papy’s Pieces 1.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 1 features three high total games: 1) Ari // Buf, 2) Hou // Ind, and 3) Jax // Mia – all three are projected to produce 48 plus points.
• There are two middling games (Ten // Chi & Was // TB) with totals between 44 and 46. The Ten // Chi game saw its total bet up well in advance of Week 1.
• The seven other games on the slate have totals between 40-42, with Pit // Atl the highest of the group at 42.
• There is a clear divide between the most and least desirable games on this slate. Ownership is likely to reflect the difference in totals.
• Week 1 is always full of value but the “must plays” often end up over-owned for their likelihood of hitting.
• “We don’t know as much as we think we know” is never truer than in Week 1. 

Pawn – RB Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300)

There are a lot of guys who I could’ve put in this space since value is always abundant in Week 1. There will be lots of “free square” players, especially at WR. They are all good plays in a vacuum, and there is a strong chance at least one of the popular salary savers posts a good score. So, why didn’t I make a list of all those guys? One of the best ways to try and win first place in Week 1 is to stay away from all the “must plays” that are going to have a higher chance of failure than their ownership implies. Jaleel is my favorite under-the-radar player this season. He has been nothing but productive at every level, and never gotten the credit he deserves because he’s small. It would surprise most people to learn that he is college football’s all-time leading rusher. Sure, all his stats didn’t come at the highest level, but what can he do other than run for 400 yards a game? He now finds himself in a Sean Payton offense occupying the “non-primary ball carrier” job. That role has produced a ton of fantasy goodness for years (even before Alvin Kamara), and Jaleel has plenty of juice to take advantage of that. He had some of the best advanced metrics last season, catching 31 of his 36 targets, and posting 5.4 yards per carry (YPC) on 76 attempts. The Seahawks got whacked by RBs last year, and despite using their first round pick on DT Byron Murphy, resigning DT Leonard Williams, and bringing in LB Tryel Dodson, they still look like an attackable front seven, especially with quickness. Javonte Williams ($5,500) should draw some ownership (he’s also a quality play), but Jaleel should see sub-3 % ownership and is $1,200 cheaper. He’s the type of player who could post a surprise 20-point game if he breaks a screen pass. His locked-in receiving role, plus a cheap price tag, means even if he doesn’t hit big this week, he probably won’t crater your roster. Play for first. Play Jaleel.

Knight – TE Kyle Pitts ($4,600)

Expectations are sky-high for Pitts and the rest of Atlanta’s offense entering their first season with a capable QB and offensive coordinator. The 100-million-dollar man Kirk Cousins is the best QB Atlanta has had since Matt Ryan, and Zac Robinson is a bright offensive mind coming from Sean McVay’s system. Pitts is priced affordably for a TE who has the athletic talent to create big plays, and his matchup against the Steelers is sneaky good. Joey Porter Jr. was used heavily in shadow coverage after he became a starter in Week 8 and mostly took away the other team’s best WR. Without much of a WR2 threat, I suspect we see Porter Jr. chase Drake London for much of the game. That’s a tough matchup for London, and with newly acquired (in the Dionte Johnson trade) CB Donte Jackson on the other side, the matchup is no picnic for Darnell Mooney. Enter Pitts who will get to attack the soft center of the Steelers pass defense. ILB Patrick Queen is overall good, but more of a run-stopper/pass rusher, and ILB Elandon Roberts is a 30-year-old former sixth round pick on his third team who ran a 4.6 40-yard dash in his prime. SS Deshon Elliot is another former sixth round pick who is on his third team in three years. Rookie LB Payton Wilson is 6’4 and blazed a 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine. He looked great during the preseason and would be the best player to match up with Pitts. That doesn’t matter because Mike Tomlin is a donkey who doesn’t play rookies at the start of the year. Wheels up for Pitts.